Here is just a little historical data of the SPX performance after State of the Union speeches by U.S. presidents since 2001-
Private payrolls grow by 234,000 in January, vs 185,000 expected: ADP/Moody's Analytics https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/31/pri...january-vs-185k-est-adp-moodys-analytics.html
Good Wednesday morning to all. The pre-market thread has been posted- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day in here today!
Whelp, as we're wrapping up the first month of the year today it will be interesting to see if we will follow history. Looking at the numbers - when the SPX is higher in January the rest of the year (next 11 months) is up about +12% on average, which is above the average return of +8% over the final 11 months of the year. However, when January is down, the final 11 months are only up about +1% on average. Here's where this gets interesting. When the first month of the year is up more than +5% (like this year is), the return over the final 11 months sees strength. Charts courtesy of LPL Research- In all the instances where the SPX was up more than +5% at the end of January, the full year return was NEVER lower (higher 12 out of 12 times!) however the average correction was almost -11%, while the smallest intra-year pullback was just over -4% so not exactly smooth sailing.
Utilities had a bad month, Im watching this sector closely. If the broader market starts stalling out, will money flow towards the sector that is already taken a hit? 1 month performance:
Hmm speculating...bond market is doing poorly because of interest rates (similar to utilities), thus investors take money out of bonds and into stocks, then they largely will want dividend stocks (similar to bonds), thus they put money into utilities. But by then that could be the top of the stock market, as I'm hearing the next stock bear market will be caused by the bonds (and various forms of debt) crashing. It makes sense because an influx of money from bonds to stocks would provide the liquidity for big boys to cash out.
ding ding ding! and that'll wrap it for the month of jan. and what a month it was even despite the past 2 down days. spx up +5.62%
Great month for the bulls indeed Cy, you have any stats on how February usually fared after a great January?
