my crystal ball is pointing to around the inauguration ... but we'll see vix approaching that 10-handle again
With the strength in Bitcoin, I wonder if we've seen the low in gold. GDX/GLD ratio testing the 200-day average.
Retail not looking good, bad xmas sales http://mobile.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSKBN14P1G9 Thu Jan 5, 2017 | 12:01 PM EST Dismal holiday sales at Macy's, Kohl's spell gloom for sector Disappointing holiday season sales at Macy's Inc (M.N) and Kohl's Corp (KSS.N) underscored the uphill task department stores face in winning back shoppers, who are increasingly turning to online retailers and spending less on apparel. Macy's shares were down 14.4 percent in morning trading on Thursday and Kohl's 18.3 percent after both reported lower-than-expected sales for November and December and cut their full-year profit forecasts. Shares of other department store operators, including J.C. Penney Co Inc (JCP.N) and Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N), also fell as the dismal showing came as a shock to investors, given heightened expectations of a bump in holiday spending this year.
You know.. A market with no QE supporting it something an entire massive group of new investors have never known. I suspect this market come back to equilibrium this year.
I guess I should rephrase. Im interested in to see normalization in the sense that there are rising rates back to what ever is considered normal these days. Remember when owning bonds was an actual way to earn income in the old days?
Since you guys bring it up, I thought I would whip up a chart showing all of the QE's. Ever since QE3 ended in late 2014, we've essentially been going sideways really up until the Presidential Election. Also note how after the end of each QE we went through a pretty serious market correction. I suppose one could say we went through a correction "through time" once QE3 ended as well. This is now the first time that we're moving meaningfully higher w/o QE. Albeit, most of it coming on a post-election move though. How long does this last?
Here is my analogy, QE was the Fed putting flooring the pedal and spinning the wheels hard to get us out of the hole and start the uphill climb. We shifted into 2nd gear, 3rd and 4th gear, now we took our foot off the pedal, but the momentum is still carrying the vehicle foward. Gravity is still fighting us, we are going to see the effects this year.
Add to this that you won't have a media covering up or spinning negative economic news, but rather, highlighting it, and we are in for quite the correction/recession.
Depends who you mean by "media". Fox News being the biggest player on the field will not be spinning negative economic news, Im pretty sure they will blame every bad tick on Obama
Fox news is small compared to ABC, NBC, CBS, The New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, etc, etc.
Based off of this chart, I'm currently bullish on the overall market. This is an hourly chart. We have touched that short term trend line 3 times (Green circles) and we have an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming here. Each time we touch the upper trend line chances of pushing through it get stronger and stronger. Plus, we haven't been able to move below the long term monthly trend line (Dotted yellow line) going back 15 years with any sort of conviction. So, this is looking mighty bullish in the short term.
I'm looking for a pullback tonight to the SMA, a little dip below it, to go long. My stop will be below today's low if that happens. I may also cap my upside and mitigate my risk some by selling a call option out of the money.
