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Stock Market Today: January 8th - 12th, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jan 5, 2018.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of January 8th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    T.B.A.
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Risk Hits Record Low, Ripple Ravaged As Gold Has Longest Ever Win Streak
    What a week...


    Quick summary of this week's records:

    • Record highs for S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq.
    • Lowest VIX close ever.
    • First time VIX has ever traded at or below 9.00 for 3 straight days ever.
    • Nasdaq's best start to a year since 2004.
    • Near record streak for stocks to remain within 5% of all-time high ever.
    • Individual investors highest stock exposure since 2000.
    • Fastest yield curve flattening since 2007.
    • Longest streak of complacency for risk ever.
    • Longest winning streak for gold ever.
    • Longest winning streak for global commodities ever.


    So stocks opened gap up on Tuesday and never looked back...Nasdaq was the week's big winner... A perfect (holiday-shortened) week for stocks with every index up every day this week...



    [​IMG]

    This week was the biggest short squeeze in 4 months...



    [​IMG]


    As SentimentTrader.com notes, individual investors have the most stock exposure since 2000, and their short-term optimism is now rising. It has done an about-face during the past two months, going from pessimism to the 2nd-highest optimism since the 2009 low.

    [​IMG]



    Additionally, Citi's Macro Risk Index has now been below its neutral level (meaning relatively low risk aversion) for the longest period in its history starting in 1997. The last time it measured higher than average risk aversion was November 2016.

    [​IMG]



    VIX closed at record lows this week and traded at 9.00 or lower for 3 straight days - something it has never done before...



    [​IMG]



    Gold was the day's big winner post-Payrolls... until the late-day meltup in stocks...



    [​IMG]



    Investors were buying anything with risk... High Yield bonds had the best week in 5 months, smashing back above the 200DMA...



    [​IMG]



    Despite all the equity exuberance, the Treasury yield curve hit new cycle lows and ended flatter on the week...



    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields did rise on the week, snapping higher today after the dismal jobs data...



    [​IMG]



    The Dollar Index fell for the 4th straight week, closing at its lowest since September...



    [​IMG]



    Gold and Bitcoin had a big week....



    [​IMG]



    Copper's first weekly drop in a month as the rest of the commodity space surged to the longest daily win streak in history...



    [​IMG]



    And in crypto-land, Ripple unraveled today - crashing 35% - before ramping back higher on headlines about Western Union adopting the protocol... ETH (topped $1000) just outperformed XRP on the week...

    [​IMG]

    and Bitcoin topped $16,500...





    [​IMG]



    And don't forget - Tepper and Cohn have now told you that stocks are not expensive...

    Nope...

    [​IMG]

    Nope...



    [​IMG]
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here were the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2017-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Yesterday, as I was researching the data on the Fed’s balance sheet as it relates to the future direction of interest rates, I stumbled across an interesting piece of analysis.

    The chart below shows the deviation of the market from the underlying liquidity provided by the Fed’s balance sheet.

    [​IMG]

    Not surprisingly, in 2006-2007 as the deviation reached extremes, market liquidity became problematic. While we only recognized this in hindsight, the correlation is important to consider.

    Currently, this “Brawny Market” has become the “quicker picker-upper” of market liquidity. The issue becomes, as discussed yesterday, with the Federal Reserve beginning to extract liquidity from the markets, along with the ECB tapering their QE program simultaneously, at what point does liquidity once again become a problem?

    For now, however, market exuberance has completely overtaken investor mentalities. Such is not surprising as we head into the 9th-year of the current bull market advance. As shown in the chart below, the current market conditions, while bullish and positive which keeps portfolios allocated toward risk, are at levels seen only three-times previously.

    [​IMG]

    Such does not mean a “crash” is coming tomorrow, but it does suggest that this “Brawny Market” has much more limited upside than what most investors currently believe.

    Remain long equities for now. But don’t forget that what goes up, will eventually come down. So it is worth paying attention to the risk and having a plan of action in place to do with the eventual reversion when it comes.

    Just something to think about as you catch up on your weekend reading list.

    Economy & Fed

    Markets

    Cryptocurrency Mania
    Research / Interesting Reads
    “The trick of successful investors is to sell when they want to, not when they have to.” – Seth Klarman
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    2018 Forecast: Healthy Economy, Strong Market & New Tax Law Bullish – Dow 29,000 in the Cards
    [​IMG]
    We’ve been digging and searching for indications that this market is running out of steam and we are headed for some sort of major correction, sizeable pullback or a bear market next year, but we have been hard-pressed to find any such data. Sure valuations and sentiment are rather high, but we all know that situation can go on for longer than most bearish investors can stay short or on the sidelines. A growing economy with increasing corporate earnings can bring price/earnings valuations down as well as a price decline.

    We do expect a mild soft patch next year during the Worst Six Months (May-October) as is often the case. You might think that such a banner market rally in the usually weak post-election year would “steal” gains from the midterm gains. But that is not really the case. As you can see in the chart below the black line representing midterm years that followed positive post-election years runs extremely close to the blue line of all midterm years. There are other factors at play that have led us to believe this year is likely to be another strong one.

    Secular Bull Underway
    For one thing it is becoming apparent that our 2010 Super Boom Forecast for DJIA to reach 38,820 by the year 2025 is on track. We first released that forecast in this space in May 2010 (starts on page 10 of the June 2010 newsletter) with DJIA around 10,000. We last updated this forecast in March of this year. We now believe that the February 2016 bear market low was the end of the last secular bear and the beginning of the new secular bull market.

    If you refer to the Bull and Bear Market stats in your handy Stock Trader’s Almanac 2018 on pages 131-132 you will see that the average bull market gain for DJIA is 85.6%, for S&P it’s 81.5% and for NASDAQ it is 129.7%. That equates to about DJIA 29,000. S&P 500 3,300 and NASDAQ 9,800. From here that’s a 17% move for DJIA, 23% for S&P and 40% for NASDAQ.

    Now, you might be concerned that it’s been a long time since we have had a 10% correction and we are way overdue. It is getting close to two years since the last 10% drop (the aforementioned February 2016 bear market low) and it now stands at 679 days. We are not saying that we will not have a 10% next year; we may very well have one in the worst six months of 2018, but just because we are 164 days over the average timespan between 10% corrections in bull markets does not mean we are overdue for one. The gap from 2011 to 2015 was 1326 days for example. See the rest in our study from August.

    2018 Forecast
    Based on everything we have analyzed, including the risks of high market valuations, rocky geopolitics, a new Federal Reserve Chair and the history midterm-election-year volatility we once again have laid out three scenarios for next year:
    • Worst Case – 5% chance. Full blown midterm bear market caused by North Korea actually setting off a nuke, no positive impact from tax reform, or some other doomsday scenario.
    • Base Case – 47.5% chance. Above average midterm year gains in the range of 8-15%, a mild worst six correction or pullback.
    • Best Case – 47.5% chance. Everything pans out, tax reform juices corporate earnings, bonuses & paychecks grow, economy grows. DJIA 29,000, S&P 3,300, NASDAQ 9,800
    The midterm election outcome matters less than many people think with this president. Even if the Democrats take back both houses of Congress President Trump is highly likely to veto any Democratic legislation that comes to his desk. The Dems are not likely to get two-thirds veto override majority. The current Congress and President Trump have put the country on a new path with less regulation and lower taxes. This direction will remain in place until at least January 2021; the next regularly scheduled Inauguration Day.

    Then there is our January Indicator Trifecta which served us quite well in 2017. While post-election years are notoriously bearish, when all three January Indicators – the Santa Claus Rally, First Five Days and the full-month January Barometer – are all positive we hit the trifecta. Post-election years since 1949 average about 6.2%. When the January Indicator Trifecta is positive post-election years average 24.0%.

    It is a similar case for this midterm year. Average gain since 1950 is 6.7%, but with a positive January Indicator Trifecta midterm years average 21.1% – all based on the S&P 500. So the forecast is out, but as always we reserve the right to make adjustments on the close of January 2018.

    Fashionable Late, Nonetheless Santa Makes an Appearance
    [​IMG]
    Convincing reindeer to fly and spending a long night making deliveries quite likely takes a toll, but after taking nearly a week off, Santa did find the time and strength to pay Wall Street a visit this year. He left behind a modest 1.1% S&P 500 gain for the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January combined. This is somewhat below the long-term (since 1950) average of 1.3%, but still a gain and more than good enough to keep alive the prospects of another positive January Indicator Trifecta for 2018.
    [​IMG]
    Solid 2017 neither Bullish nor Bearish for 2018
    [​IMG]
    2017 was a good year for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. It was the best year since QE fueled 2013, but gains of 25.1%, 19.4% and 28.2 for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ respectively, is not even enough to break the Top 10 All-Time Best Year list featured on page 169 of the 2018 Stock Trader’s Almanac.

    Using DJIA data since 1901, S&P 500 since 1930 and NASDAQ since 1971, all years that equaled or exceeded 2017’s performance appear in the table above. Next January and the Next Year’s performance are also included. Compared to All Year average performance, DJIA and NASDAQ improve slightly following big years, but S&P 500 performance actually dips. DJIA and S&P 500 “% Up” years is little changed while NASDAQ enjoys a modest bump higher.

    International Markets Lead US to Start 2018
    Jan 5, 2018

    Below is a look at our asset class performance matrix highlighting the total return of various ETFs over three near-term time frames — over the last six months, over the last month, and year-to-date so far in 2018.

    Notably, the oil ETF (USO) is now up more than any asset class in our matrix over the last six months with a gain of 32.76%. Behind oil is Brazil (EWZ), the BRIC ETF (EEB), Russia (RSX), and the S&P 500 Technology sector (XLK). Natural gas (UNG), Mexico (EWW), and the Telecom sector (IYZ) are down the most over the last six months.

    In terms of performance to kick off 2018, US equities have done very well out of the gate with the S&P 500 gaining 2.24% this week. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has done even better with a gain of 3.83%, while the Dow 30 (DIA) has lagged at +1.83%. Large-caps have outperformed small-caps thus far, and growth has outperformed value.

    While US equities have yet to see a down day in 2018, international markets have posted even bigger gains to start the year. Russia (RSX), Brazil (EWZ), Italy (EWI), Spain (EWP), and Germany (EWG) are all up more than 4% on the year already, and the emerging markets ETF (EEM) is up 4.07%.

    One asset class that has dipped to start 2018 is fixed income, where both short and long-term Treasury ETFs are down.

    [​IMG]
    Bespoke’s List of the Most Volatile Stocks on Earnings
    Jan 5, 2018

    The Q4 2017 earnings reporting period starts up next week, and as we do prior to every earnings season, in this post we provide lists of the stocks that have historically been the most volatile on their earnings reaction days.

    If you follow markets at all, you know that stocks see their biggest price moves in reaction to their quarterly earnings reports. Since this is the case, to us at least, it’s very important to know how stocks typically react to their quarterly reports. To keep track of these price moves, we maintain a huge database called our Earnings Screener that contains every quarterly earnings report for US stocks going back to 2001. There are roughly 150,000 individual quarterly reports in the database at this point, and every quarter we add to the list — giving us an even more comprehensive data set to analyze.

    Users of our Earnings Screener can search for historical reports on a stock by stock basis, or they can run searches to find, for example, a list of stocks that have beaten EPS estimates, beaten revenue estimates, and raised guidance over a specific time frame. The capabilities of the database are pretty limitless, so give it a try by starting a 14-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional. It’s only available at the Bespoke Institutional membership level. You can see a video tutorial of how to use the database here.

    From our Earnings Screener, we pulled every quarterly report since 2001 to find the average volatility of stocks on their earnings reaction days by sector. (For stocks that report in the AM before the open, its earnings reaction day is that trading day. For stocks that report in the evening after the close, its earnings reaction day is the next trading day.)

    As shown, the average one-day price change in reaction to earnings for all stocks in our database has historically been +/-5.34%. So investors can basically expect any given stock to move roughly 5% up or down when it reports earnings every quarter.

    Some sectors see much more volatility on earnings than others, though, and you can probably imagine which sectors are most and least volatile. As shown, Technology sector stocks are the most volatile on earnings, with an average one-day price change of +/-7.15%. Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Industrials are the three additional sectors that see their stocks move more than the market average on their earnings reaction days.

    On the flip side, Utilities and Real Estate (REITs) stocks are the least volatile in reaction to earnings. The average REIT moves just +/-2.51% on its earnings reaction day each quarter, while the average Utilities stock moves even less at just +/-2.26%.

    [​IMG]

    Below is our updated list of the individual stocks that see the biggest moves on their earnings reaction days. If you’re looking for volatility during earnings season, this is the place to start.

    To make the list, a stock must have at least 3 years (12 quarters) worth of earnings reports, and it must currently trade above $10/share.

    As show, LendingTree (TREE) ranks as the most volatile stock on earnings with an average move of +/-15.22% on its earnings reaction day. As a $358 stock, that means you can expect a move up or down of $53/share when it reports on 2/22 if it just experiences an average move.

    Just behind TREE is YELP in second place with an average move of +/-15.22% on earnings. Behind Yelp is AAOI, NES, and BOOT. The top five most volatile stocks on earnings all move more than +/-14% when they report once per quarter.

    While you may not be familiar with the five most volatile stocks on earnings, you surely know Netflix (NFLX) in sixth place. As shown, Netflix — which reports after the close on 1/22 — has historically moved +/-13.49% on its earnings reaction days. That’s roughly $27 per quarter at its current share price.

    Other notables on the list include stocks like Twitter (TWTR), First Solar (FSLR), iRobot (IRBT), Nutrisystem (NTRI), Wayfair (W), Tableau Software (DATA), and Align Tech (ALGN).

    [​IMG]

    Below we highlight the most volatile S&P 500 stocks on earnings. In the table above, NFLX and ALGN were the only S&P 500 names to make the list. In the S&P 500 specifically, along with NFLX and ALGN, the three stocks that round out the top five are Priceline (PCLN), Akamai Tech (AKAM), and TripAdvisor (TRIP). Each of these stocks along with two more — KORS and ISRG — historically move more than +/-10% on their earnings reaction days. Amazon.com (AMZN) — one of five largest companies in the world — just barely misses the 10% mark with an average move of +/-9.42% on earnings. Other notables on the list of big S&P 500 earnings movers include NVIDIA (NVDA), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Chipotle (CMG), Under Armour (UA), salesforce.com (CRM), Best Buy (BBY), and Facebook (FB).

    All of the stocks listed in the table above and the table below are worth keeping an eye on this earnings season. While it’s impossible to know whether they’ll trade up or down (although many have historically averaged big gains), you can rest assured that they’ll experience big moves.

    [​IMG]

    Does the First Day of the Year Tell Us Anything?
    Posted by lplresearch

    Now that 2017 is in the books, we are moving forward with the first trading day of the new year. But, does the first day really matter? Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Of course one day doesn’t make a full year, but it is quite interesting how much the first day of a new year can signal things to come. In fact, over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 Index has been up 10 times and down 10 times; when the first day is green the full-year return has been up +14.2% on average, while a lower first day has resulted in the full-year return being in the red.”

    Incredibly, the past eight times the first day of the year was green, the S&P 500 was higher for the full year seven times, and that only loss was down only -0.002%.

    [​IMG]

    In conclusion, this is a fun stat, but we would suggest this is more random than anything and longer-term indicators like earnings, valuations, and technicals matter more.
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 1.5.18
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1.7.18
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current indices pullback/correction levels as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 1.8.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 1.8.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.9.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 1.9.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.10.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 1.10.18 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.11.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 1.11.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Friday 1.12.18 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 1.12.18 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    We also have a couple price polls up and running as well!-

    These will all expire after this weekend so be sure to get cast your votes in ASAP.

    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    I always post up these weekly market pullback/correction levels as part of my starter posts for the main weekly market thread, but maybe what I should be doing instead is posting up the weekly rally levels since pullbacks are practically nonexistent in this market. :p

    So here it is.

    This first table shows all of the rally levels from the beginning of this year-

    Trump talked about DOW 30K as his next major milestone the other day ... it's actually not too totally far-fetched to think that we can do it in 2018, I mean if we did another 2017 again this year (DOW was up over +25% in 2017) then we can get there.
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels as of yesterday's (1/5/2018) close-
    SPX 3K just another +10% away from here.
    [​IMG]

    Lastly, as was mentioned on last week's thread, this is the best start to a new trading year for the SPX since 2006. It's the first time since 1964 that we have seen 4 new closing ATHs in a row to start the year. The all-time record is 6 closing ATHs in a row in that same here.

    Furthermore, should the SPX close up another 3 trading days it would tie the record for the longest winning streak to start a new year since 1987.

    Lastly, how is this for a statistic:

    After 4 trading days thus far, the SPX is up +2.60% YTD. When the first 5 trading days are up 2% or better the SPX is higher for the year 15 out of 15 times since 1950, and the average return is +18.60%.

    Finally, we already had a positive SCR (santa claus rally), and it's looking like we'll also register a positive FFD (first five trading days to start the year), if January ends the full month positive than we'll have another January trifecta. Historically speaking those have been a very powerful indicator for how the full year will go.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead:
    ($JPM $LEN $KBH $WFC $SCHN $HELE $BLK $AYI $DAL $FCEL $MSM $SVU $PNC $SNX $WDFC $SJR $SHLM $SMPL $EXFO $SAR $LMNR $SLP $PRGS $NTIC $VOXX $INFY)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. $108.34
    [​IMG]JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:50 AM ET on Friday, January 12, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.69 per share on revenue of $24.80 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 70% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 1.17% with revenue decreasing by 4.94%. Short interest has decreased by 0.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.5% above its 200 day moving average of $92.98. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 there was some notable buying of 72,512 contracts of the $100.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 0.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Lennar Corp. $67.58
    [​IMG]Lennar Corp. (LEN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.50 per share on revenue of $3.62 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.54 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 85% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.94% with revenue increasing by 7.21%. Short interest has increased by 144.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 23.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 24.6% above its 200 day moving average of $54.22. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, December 18, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,350 contracts of the $65.00 call expiring on Friday, May 18, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.4% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    KB Home $33.40
    [​IMG]KB Home (KBH) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $1.36 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.80 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 92.50% with revenue increasing by 14.10%. Short interest has increased by 34.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 44.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% above its 200 day moving average of $24.26. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, December 19, 2017 there was some notable buying of 971 contracts of the $33.00 put expiring on Friday, July 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.3% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Wells Fargo & Co. $62.75
    [​IMG]Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Friday, January 12, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $22.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.07 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 0.97% with revenue decreasing by 4.12%. Short interest has increased by 43.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.7% above its 200 day moving average of $54.72. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 21, 2017 there was some notable buying of 26,894 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, April 20, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. $35.45
    [​IMG]Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (SCHN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:30 AM ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.61 per share on revenue of $468.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.63 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 2,133.33% with revenue increasing by 40.17%. Short interest has decreased by 1.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 21.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 40.5% above its 200 day moving average of $25.23. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, December 28, 2017 there was some notable buying of 750 contracts of the $34.00 call expiring on Friday, August 17, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Helen of Troy Ltd. $95.85
    [​IMG]Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Monday, January 8, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.12 per share on revenue of $455.00 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.17 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 7.42% with revenue increasing by 2.38%. Short interest has increased by 41.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 1.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 2.2% above its 200 day moving average of $93.77. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 4.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.1% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    BlackRock, Inc. $525.57
    [​IMG]BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:15 AM ET on Friday, January 12, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $5.96 per share on revenue of $3.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $6.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 79% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.95% with revenue increasing by 14.53%. Short interest has decreased by 8.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.9% above its 200 day moving average of $434.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 27, 2017 there was some notable buying of 2,406 contracts of the $410.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 2.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.4% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Acuity Brands, Inc. $185.36
    [​IMG]Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:25 AM ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.09 per share on revenue of $876.93 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.13 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 62% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 5.56% with revenue increasing by 3.02%. Short interest has increased by 16.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.0% above its 200 day moving average of $176.57. On Friday, December 29, 2017 there was some notable buying of 516 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 5.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Delta Air Lines, Inc. $55.97
    [​IMG]Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, January 11, 2018. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $10.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.95 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 9.76% with revenue increasing by 7.53%. Short interest has increased by 35.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 4.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.7% above its 200 day moving average of $50.12. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, January 3, 2018 there was some notable buying of 10,900 contracts of the $55.00 put expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 3.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 1.6% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    FuelCell Energy, Inc. $1.72
    [​IMG]FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, January 11, 2018. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.20 per share on revenue of $25.04 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.19) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 51.22% with revenue increasing by 2.32%. Short interest has increased by 42.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 3.3% above its 200 day moving average of $1.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, December 20, 2017 there was some notable buying of 960 contracts of the $2.00 put expiring on Friday, February 16, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 12.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.2% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    So, earnings season is about to kick off this week with the big banks reporting at the end of the week.

    What else is everyone watching this coming week?

    Any newsworthy events coming up?

    Any good looking setups out there?

    Econ. calendar will be largely on the light side this week.

    Have a great a weekend and a great trading week ahead to everyone!
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    Thanks Cy :D Definiely will be interesting to see how the market will do this year comparing to 2006 ;)
     
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  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I'm short an airline and seeing if this "bomb cyclone" helps. Ppl making up names for weather patterns so it seems like something new and dangerous that has never been seen before. Everything needs to be the greatest or worst ever nowadays.
     
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  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    good morning!

    this morning's pre-market post is up-

    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    hope everyone has a good trading day/week in here!
     
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    mixed bag thus far heading into the lunch hour:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    here are the top 20 best performing stocks in the s&p 500 to start 2018 thus far:
    [​IMG]
     
  18. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    Market on track to start the year with a 5 day winning streak :eek:
     
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  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    yep and barring something totally crazy it looks like we'll end the FFD period pretty green :eek:

    SPX is up +2.60% after the first 4 trading days in 2018, best start since 2006 as you mentioned on Friday.

    Since 1950, there were 15 other instances a year started +2.50% or greater after 5 days.

    in each of those 15 instances the full year was higher every time with an avg. return of +18.60% and median return of +18.20%

    also worth noting that should the SPX close up today and also tomorrow that will tie the record (6) for the longest winning streak of ATHs to start a year which was set in 1964.

    3 more up days and we'll tie the longest win streak in general to start a year since 1987.
     
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