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Stock Market Today: July 1st - 5th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jun 29, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 1st!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    10 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    10 a.m. Construction spending

    • Tuesday

    Monthly auto sales

    6:35 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams in Zurich, Switzerland

    11 a.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester in London

    • Wednesday

    Early NYSE close

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. International trade

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10 a.m. Nonmanufacturing ISM

    10 a.m. Factory orders

    • Thursday

    Independence Day

    markets closed

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Employment report
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Powell Capitulation Sparks S&P's Best Start To A Year In 22 Years
    Well that was a month... and good luck if you're long (or short) into this weekend's headline horrors...





    Global Bond and Stock Markets added $4.5 trillion to global wealth in June

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Catching down to the market's demands...

    [​IMG]

    And everything was up in the first half of the year (via BofA):

    H1 Scores on the doors: global stocks 15.5%, commodities 16.2%, HY corporate bonds 9.3%, IG corporate bonds 7.7%, government bonds 4.9%, cash 1.2%, US dollar 0.0%.

    H1 return winners: #1 Bitcoin +194%, #2 iron ore 67%, #3 Russian equities 33%, #4 WTI oil 31%, #5 tech stocks 23%.

    H1 return losers: #1 natural gas -22%, #2 Turkish lira -8%, #3 biotech stocks -2%, #4 US dollar 0.0%, #5 T-Bills 1%.

    H1 flow winners: #1 Corp IG $136bn, #2 Govt bonds $34bn, #3 EM debt $27bn, #4 Munis $21bn, #5 Corp HY $15bn.

    H1 flow losers: #1 EU equities -$71bn, #2 US equities -$41bn, #3 bank loans -$18bn, #4 financials -$10bn, #5 TIPS -$8bn.

    H1 in a nutshell: asset prices rose as bearish positioning coincided with a bullish monetary policy pivot; interest rate expectations collapsed offsetting lower EPS expectations; lower credit spreads & volatility meant higher stock prices; investors went down-in-quality in credit, and stuck with growth stocks.

    Global stocks (MSCI World) just had their greatest June performance in history...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow just had its best June since 1938...

    [​IMG]

    Additionally, the S&P saw its best June since 1955...

    [​IMG]



    Chinese stocks are up 20% in the first six months of the year, the best six-month run since June 2015...

    June was also a big month but dominated by the mid-month ECB/FED/BoJ fold...

    [​IMG]



    European stocks saw their best monthly performance since Dec 2016 (Thanks to Draghi and Powell mid-month)...

    [​IMG]



    And best first half of the year since 1998...

    [​IMG]



    June was - as noted above - was almost unprecedented for US stocks...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE - look at how tightly clustered US major equity index returns are for such a wild month.

    On the week, Trannies and Small Caps surged - on a huge short squeeze - but Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all lost ground...

    [​IMG]

    NOT - big spike at the close on a $4bn MOC to buy program - did pensions really wait until the last 10mins of the quarter to rebalance?



    "Most Shorted" Stocks have exploded higher in the last two days, echoing the first two days of the month - this is the biggest monthly squeeze since January...

    [​IMG]



    VIX was lower on the month BUT as stocks rallied since June 6th, VIX has been flat...

    [​IMG]



    Credit markets dramatically compressed in June - decoupling from equity risk...

    [​IMG]



    But credit and equity are notably divergent in this bounce...

    [​IMG]



    Bond vol has dramatically decoupled from equity vol too...

    [​IMG]



    The decoupling between bonds and stocks is unprecedented...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields tumbled in June (but notably the long-end dramatically underperformed)...

    [​IMG]



    10Y yields tested back down below 2.00% to end the month - the lowest monthly close since Oct 2016...

    [​IMG]



    The yield curve (3m10Y) steepened over 11bps in June (the biggest steepening since Jan 2018) but remains inverted for the 26th day straight...

    [​IMG]



    While The Dollar Index trod water this week after the Powell plunge, June's 1.6% drop was the worst month since Jan 2018

    [​IMG]



    Offshore Yuan jumped most since January in June - driven mainly by easing chatter from Fed/ECB...

    [​IMG]



    Bitcoin managed to hold on to gains this week, despite the midweek bloodbath...

    [​IMG]



    Cryptos soared in June, Q2 and H1 with Litecoin up 300% YTD and Bitcoin up 200% YTD...

    [​IMG]



    Bitcoin is up 5 months in a row...

    [​IMG]

    Bitcoin was bid into today's close ending around $12,300

    [​IMG]



    Tracking 2017's trajectory very well...

    [​IMG]



    Oil and Gold outperformed but the dollar weakness sent all commodities higher...

    [​IMG]



    Gold surged over 8% in June, its best month since pre-Brexit in June 2016...

    [​IMG]



    Gold is the dramatic winner since The Fed went full dovetard...

    [​IMG]



    Gold made new all time highs in multiple currencies (AUD, SEK, MYR, CLP, and ZimDollar)

    [​IMG]



    As the precious metal becomes ever more valuable in a world of negative yielding debt...

    [​IMG]



    WTI had its best month since January but tumbled after the close today erasing the gains from the inventory data earlier in the week after Europe announced the Iran-Sanction workaround was operational...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, among all the superlatives in markets, June saw US Macro data collapse most since April 2017...

    [​IMG]

    So, US stocks are within an inch of record highs and macro-economic data is near its weakest since 2011?

    Well, it sure looks like the poorest Americans aren't loving it...

    [​IMG]

    So what happens next?
    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    July 4th Market Returns
    Fri, Jun 28, 2019

    With the first half winding down to a close, Summer is in full swing as July 4th quickly approaches. While the days leading up to or after July 4th are usually on the quiet side with many people taking vacations, for the stock market, it is usually a relatively positive week. The chart below shows the S&P 500's performance during the July 4th week measuring performance from the Friday before July 4th until the Friday after. In years where July 4th falls on a Friday or Saturday, we measure the S&P 500's performance in the week leading up to July 4th.

    For the July 4th week, going back to 1969, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of 0.32% with positive returns 60% of the time. In the charts below, we have also included green shading in years where the S&P 500 was up 10%+ in the first half (as it is this year). In those years, returns during the July 4th week have been much better with an average gain of 0.93% and positive returns 79% of the time. In fact, the last time the S&P 500 was down during the July 4th week in a year where the S&P 500 was up 10%+ in the first half was in 1986!

    [​IMG]

    Similar to the July 4th week, the day before July 4th has also historically been positive but not nearly to the same degree. On those days, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 0.04% with positive returns only slightly more than half of the time (54%). In years where the S&P 500 was up over 10% in the first half, the day before July 4th is considerably better, averaging a gain of 0.17% with gains 64% of the time.

    [​IMG]

    With people out celebrating the July 4th holiday, the hangover sets in after. As shown below, the average S&P 500 change on the trading day after July 4th is a decline of 0.18% with gains only 42% of the time. In years when the S&P 500 was up over 10% in the first half, the declines aren't as bad, but at -0.12% and gains only half of the time, they aren't positive either. This year the day after July 4th will also feature the June Non-Farm Payrolls report. That will be fun!

    [​IMG]

    Next Week's Economic Indicators - 6/28/19
    Fri, Jun 28, 2019

    In posts yesterday and Monday, we made note of the increasingly disappointing economic data out of the US relative to expectations so far in 2019. This week's data only added to the woes as the Citi Economic Surprise Index for the US now sits only 0.73% above its April low.

    Over half of this week's releases came in worse than the prior period of estimates. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index was the first release this week showing improvements from the April data and coming in above estimates, but the indicator is still showing contracting activity (reading below zero). The Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Activity index also was out on Monday showing far weaker results. Later in the week, on Thursday, the Kansas City Fed released their own manufacturing activity index completing our Five Fed Composite which is painting a bleak picture for the manufacturing sector. There was also a good amount of housing data this week with overall solid results including stronger than expected home prices (via the FHFA index and S&P CoreLogic's Case-Shiller Index) but disappointing new home sales on Tuesday, improved MBA Mortgage Applications on Wednesday, and a much better Pending Home Sales print on Thursday. Chicago PMI dropped below 50 on Friday, which is a sign of contraction, but Michigan Confidence beat estimates. One other major release this week was the third and final release of quarterly GDP, which held steady at 3.1% QoQ but was below estimates of an increase to 3.2%.

    [​IMG]

    Despite a shortened week due to the July 4th holiday, next week is set up to be a busy one. On Monday, Markit will release their final June PMI on manufacturing alongside the ISM reading later that morning. While Markit measures on manufacturing are expected to hold steady at 50.1, ISM data is anticipated to fall 1.1 down to 51. The only release Tuesday will be data on vehicle sales, which are expected to fall to 17 mm SAAR. On Thursday, there will be no releases and US markets will be shuttered in observance of the July 4th holiday. Additionally, markets will close early (1:00 PM EST) on Wednesday. In spite of this shortened session and day off, there is a huge slug of data to be released Wednesday. Following up the manufacturing PMIs, Markit and ISM non-manufacturing indicators are all due out on Wednesday. In the late morning, final May data on Factory, Durable, and Capital Goods Orders are also going to be released. Alongside the standard Wednesday release of MBA Mortgage Applications, other weekly data that is typically released on Thursday will be pushed ahead one day including Initial Jobless Claims and Bloomberg Consumer Comfort. ADP employment numbers are expected to show improvements when it releases on Wednesday ahead of Friday's Nonfarm payrolls report, which is also forecasting a solid improvement from the previous month.

    [​IMG]

    Trend Analyzer - 6/28/19 - Teetering On Overbought
    Fri, Jun 28, 2019

    After the S&P 500 (SPY) set a new all-time high last Thursday, stocks have yet to make a push back above these levels as all of the major index ETFs sit below where they were at last Thursday's close. This pullback was partially a function of the large-cap major index ETFs like the Russell 1000 (IWB) working off overbought levels. Whereas all of these were overbought last week, currently only the Dow (DIA) still sits in overbought territory although other large caps are teetering on joining DIA. The Core S&P Small Cap (IJR) and Micro Cap (IWC) are only lower by 0.41% and 0.33%, respectively. These are smaller losses compared to other ETFs which lost around 1%. Ironically, this outperformance also comes as IJR and IWC are now showing sideways trends rather uptrends across the rest of the ETFs. Granted, not all small-cap indices have been outperforming. Another small-cap index, the Russell 2000 (IWM), has seen performance more inline with other ETFs, declining 1.07%.

    [​IMG]

    Every sector except Materials (XLB) is lower over the last week. As shown in our Trend Analyzersnapshot below, it's the defensives that are finally lagging, with Real Estate (XLRE) down 4% and Utilities (XLU) down 2% since last Thursday's close. At the moment, only Materials and Health Care are overbought, while the rest are neutral.

    [​IMG]

    US Falls to the Bottom of the Pack
    Thu, Jun 27, 2019

    In a post earlier this week, we provided an update to the Citi Economic Surprise indices broken out by region. With economic data in the US continuing to disappoint this week, the Citi Surprise index (percentage of economic indicators that are beating vs. missing estimates) for the US is coming increasingly close to taking out its late April low and declining to its lowest levels in two years. What's also notable about the current reading is that at the most recent reading of -67.5, the surprise index for the US is more negative than any other country or region that this series tracks.

    Below we compare the Citi surprise reading for the US and Europe over the last twelve months, and what a reversal it has been. Heading into 2019, economic data in the US was coming in much better relative to expectations versus Europe, but ever since then, data in the US has been getting progressively worse relative to expectations, while data in Europe has been consistently improving.

    [​IMG]

    July’s First Trading Day—Most Bullish Day, S&P 500 has Advanced 85.7% of the Time
    [​IMG]
    July’s first trading day is the best performing first trading day of all twelve months with DJIA gaining a cumulative 1,175.74 points since 1998. Over the past 21 years, DJIA’s first trading day of July has produced gains 81.0% of the time with an average gain of 0.40%. S&P 500 has advanced 85.7% of the time (average gain 0.42%). NASDAQ has been slightly weaker at 76.2% (0.26% average gain). No other day of the year exhibits this amount of across-the-board strength which makes a solid case for declaring the first trading day of July the most bullish day of the year over the past 21 years.
    [​IMG]
    Pre-Election Year July Performance Mixed
    [​IMG]
    July historically is the best performing month of the third quarter however, the mostly negative results in August and September make the comparison easy. Two “hot” Julys in 2009 and 2010 where DJIA and S&P 500 both gained greater than 6% and a strong performance in 2013 have boosted July’s average gains since 1950 to 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Such strength inevitability stirs talk of a “summer rally”, but beware the hype, as it has historically been the weakest rally of all seasons (page 74, Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019).

    July begins NASDAQ’s worst four months and is the third weakest performing NASDAQ month since 1971, posting a 0.5% average gain. Dynamic trading often accompanies the first full month of summer as the beginning of the second half of the year brings an inflow of new capital. This creates a bullish beginning, a soft week after options expiration and strength towards the end.
    [​IMG]
    Pre-election-year July rankings are something of a mixed bag, ranking #6 for DJIA and #7 S&P 500, averaging gains of 1.0% and 0.9% respectively (since 1950); while NASDAQ (since 1971) and Russell 1000 (since 1979) pre-election Julys both rank #8. NASDAQ has only advanced in six of the last twelve pre-election Julys. Russell 2000 has advanced in five of its last ten. Despite tech’s and small-cap’s meager pre-election July track record, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 have averaged gains of 0.9% and 0.3% respectively.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 6.28.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    (NONE SCHEDULED FOR THIS WEEK!)
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for June 28th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.30.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET UP!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 7.1.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 7.1.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.2.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.2.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Wednesday 7.3.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.3.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Thursday 7.4.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.)

    Thursday 7.4.19 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY.)

    Friday 7.5.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.5.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    stock1234 likes this.
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is the Globex (futures) holiday schedule for this week.

    Remember that the cash markets have an early closing at 1pm eastern time on Wednesday, and are closed all day on Thursday for the 4th. Friday will be a full trading day.

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Stoch

    Stoch Active Member

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    Looks like Q2 GDP below 2%

    Latest forecast: 1.5 percent — June 28, 2019
    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 1.5 percent on June 28, down from 1.9 percent on June 26. After this morning’s personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 3.9 percent to 3.7 percent. After yesterday’s GDP release and this morning’s release of the underlying detail tables of the national income and product accounts, both from the BEA, the nowcast of second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth fell from -3.8 percent to -4.9 percent.

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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  15. Stan

    Stan Member

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    @bigbear0083 my first time through here. Wow, this is one of the most comprehensive summaries I have ever come across. Thank you.

    @stock1234 Yup that is the breakout I'm hoping for .
    Like to see a strong move up here, then test the breakout, then off to the races.
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    awesome! thanks a ton for posting that @Stan. totally made my morning to read this just now :D

    admittedly these threads can be quite tedious to put together every week, but i do enjoy doing them :p

    have a great new trading week/month/quarter and H2 everyone!

    btw, i will be out from today up through this weekend. i should be back by saturday morning to put up all the new threads and updates.

    have a great 4th to all and be safe! [​IMG]
     
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  18. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Short holiday trading week. Good luck this week everyone!
     
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  19. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    I don't think wallstreet was convinced about all the good news out of the G20 meetings.
    Markets selling off at the moment.

    Hell, I wasn't convinced either.....
     
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  20. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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