Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: July 20th - 24th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jul 17, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 20th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: IBM, Halliburton, Zions Bancorp, Cal-Maine Foods, Steel Dynamics, Royal Phillips

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Coca-Cola, Lockheed Martin, Texas Instruments, Snap, CIT Group, Novartis, Synchrony Financial, UBS, Philip Morris, Paccar, Prologis, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Capital One, Interactive Brokers, Teradyne, iRobot, Canadian National Railway

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing PMI

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Microsoft, Tesla, Discover Financial, CSX, Chipotle, Whirlpool, Kinder Morgan, Equifax, NorthernTrust, Biogen, Nasdaq, Check Point Software, KeyCorp, Baker Hughes, Thermo Fisher, Canadian Pacific Railway, Netgear, Suncor

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    • Thursday

    Earnings: AT&T, Travelers, Intel, Twitter, Blackstone, ETRADE, Dow, Union Pacific, American Airlines, Citrix, Kimberly-Clark, Alaska Air, Freeport-McMoRan, Hershey, PulteGroup, Mattel, Verisign, AutoNation, AllianceBernstein, Fifth Third, AutoNation, Roche Holdings, Reliance Steel, Air Products, Daimler, Unilever, Nucor, Quest Diagnostics, Yamana Gold, Skyworks Solution

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    • Friday

    Earnings: American Express, Verizon, Honeywell, Schlumberger, Equinor, Bloomin’ Brands

    9:45 a.m.Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. New home sales
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Silver Soars As Nasdaq Underperforms Most Since 2009
    Well that was not supposed to happen...

    The Nasdaq 100 suffered its worst weekly underperformance relative to the S&P 500 since 2009...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably, the reversal this week in Nasdaq relative to the S&P was at a key level from the past and found support at that level...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And Nasdaq dared to put in a negative week (near its worst since March) - despite all the other majors green on the week (Small Caps outperformed)...

    [​IMG]

    Likely overheard today...





    China also had an ugly week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Most of the damage to FANGs was done on Monday after its gap up, but Friday did not show the usual buying rampage...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    While FANGs were dumped, Biotechs were bid for the 3rd week in a row to new record highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    It appears TSLA momo has lost its mojo (pinned at $15000 for 3 days)...

    [​IMG]

    As those far OTM options expire worthless...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Banks were mixed with GS and JPM outperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Momentum dramatically underperformed value this week (first time in 6 weeks)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Shorts were squeezed this week on Tuesday and Wednesday but were ominously quiet Thurs/Fri...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This won't end well... options traders are at their most complacent since the peak of the dotcom bubble...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields ended the week lower (no thanks to three decent selling surges)..

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar ended the week lower (3rd week lower in a row) to its lowest weekly close since early March...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Is the dollar about to breakdown hard?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold suggests it should...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos ended the week lower with Bitcoin the least worst of the bunch...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Commodities ended the week higher, led by a big move for Silver...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Silver's outperformance vs Gold has pushed the ration between the two down to its lowest since February (and back below the key 100x level)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg





    Finally, The Fed Balance Sheet rose very modestly in the last week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And it appears the S&P future short squeeze is almost over...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And don't forget, this whole market game is easy, right! Just buy the f**king overnight session...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    What happens next?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Sleep Well.
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    The Good and the Bad from Earnings This Week
    Fri, Jul 17, 2020

    Earnings season began at the start of this week with Pepsi (PEP) and the first of the major US banks and brokers reporting Q2 numbers. It was a light week with only 32 companies reporting through Thursday, but in the coming weeks, we'll see 100+ reports on multiple trading days.

    From our Earnings Explorer tool, below is a recap of the results from this week's earnings reports. 78% of companies that reported this week beat consensus analyst EPS estimates, while 72% topped consensus sales estimates. Those are both strong numbers. In terms of future projections, 16% of companies raised guidance, and not one company lowered guidance. That's rare even with the very low number of reports so far.

    While guidance and beat rates were strong, investors still used earnings reports as an opportunity to sell. The average one-day share price change this week for companies in reaction to their earnings reports was a decline of 0.57%. All of those declines came on the initial gap down at the open, however. After averaging a gap down of 0.76% at the open of trading following the earnings release, the average stock that reported gained 0.21% from the open to the close. (The gap down of 0.76% and the open to close gain of 0.21% adds up to the full-day decline of 0.57% mentioned earlier.)

    [​IMG]

    Below is a table showing all 32 companies that reported Q2 numbers this week (through Thursday). The list is sorted by one-day share price reaction from best to worst. Alcoa (AA) had the best price reaction to earnings this week with a gain of 6.39% yesterday. WNS Global (WNS) put up the second-biggest gain at 6.36%. The next best-performing stocks in reaction to earnings this week only gained 3%+ -- USB and HOMB. Other stocks that reported this week that gained in response to their earnings reports include Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Taiwan Semi (TSM), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and JP Morgan (JPM).

    On the downside, AngioDynamics (ANGO) saw the worst share price reaction to earnings this week when it fell 11.51% on Thursday. Sleep Number (SNBR) was second-worst with a one-day drop of 9.19% yesterday as well.

    While MS, GS, and JPM all posted gains in reaction to earnings this week, other banks like Citi (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Bank of America (BAC) reacted negatively with each falling 4% or more.

    [​IMG]

    Retail Sales Beat Again

    Retail sales data for June was reported on Thursday, handily beating expectations for the second consecutive month. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, June saw a 7.5% increase month over month, compared with Bloomberg’s consensus expectations for a 5% gain. This comes on the heels of a more than 18% gain in May, but also following by far the lowest reading ever, a 14.7% decline in April.

    [​IMG]

    Pent-up demand and the continued easing of lockdowns during June likely contributed to the large increase, which saw sales rise across most categories. Sales spiked 8.2% at auto dealers, but even sales excluding autos and gas rose 6.7%. Clothing store sales more than doubled (+105.1%) while sales in the hard-hit food services and drinking places climbed 20%.

    “Consumer spending is still far below pre-pandemic levels and many of the real-time data we are monitoring have begun to level off in the past month,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “We remain encouraged by the strong rebound in May and June, but would expect more gradual gains for retail sales in the second half of the year.”

    Why A Potential Democrat Sweep May Not Be A Market Worry

    Based on the latest polling data, there’s growing consensus that former Vice President Joe Biden potentially may win the election and Democrats possibly may sweep Congress. Some might think this could be a negative for stocks, as a higher corporate tax rate that reduces earnings could be part of the Democratic platform.

    Early writers of the US Constitution were worried about one party having too much power that could enable factions in Washington, DC, to enact more extreme policies and political ideals, upsetting the carefully balanced apple cart. As we noted in our recently released Midyear Outlook 2020, stocks historically have performed quite well when Congress has been split, although stocks actually have done better than most probably realized when the Democrats were in full control.

    “Higher corporate taxes are quite likely should we see a potential Democratic sweep,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But to blindly say stocks will do poorly is quite a stretch, as historically stocks have done rather well under this .”

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 Index has been higher 9 of the past 10 times and 15 of the past 18 times Democrats controlled both the White House and Congress. Although LPL Research anticipates a likely split Congress in November, with the list of overall worries growing, we don’t think a potential Democratic sweep should be at the top of investors’ list of worries.

    [​IMG]

    Best of July Likely Over
    [​IMG]
    NASDAQ’s mid-year rally came to an end on Tuesday, July 14. During the rally’s 12-day stretch beginning on the third to last day of June through the ninth trading day in July, NASDAQ gained 4.7%. This is well above its average performance since 1985 but less than half of its best showing from 1999. At NASDAQ’s high close during the rally on July 10 it was up 6.0%. Historically around this time in July is when the market has begun to weaken as NASDAQ’s full-month average performance is just 0.9% since 1985.

    In the following chart, July’s seasonal pattern over the last 21 years has been plotted with July 2020, plotted on the right axis for comparison through yesterday’s close. This July’s well above average performance so far called for a second, larger range in order to aid in the comparison. Over the last 21 years the market’s trend has been lower beginning right around mid-month through the close. DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 & 2000 have on average given back some or all of their first half of July gains.
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.17.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 7.10.20-
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 17th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.19.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 7.20.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 7.20.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.21.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.21.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.22.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.22.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.23.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.23.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.24.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.24.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,178
    Likes Received:
    8,368
    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($TSLA $MSFT $KO $SNAP $LMT $HAL $TWTR $T $AAL $LUV $INTC $BMRC $PM $CMG $VZ $PLD $NDAQ $NVS $UAL $MAN $LOGI $IBM $CALM $OGI $AXP $PHG $BIIB $TSCO $LII $ONB $TMO $SYF $TXN $KEY $CIT $MKTX $CTXS $ISRG $CMA $CHKP $LLNW $HCA $CDNS)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
    Steven_Burt and T0rm3nted like this.
  12. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2016
    Messages:
    495
    Likes Received:
    281
    Eyeing that second round of stimulus to help keep the market propped up. I have a feeling it will be a last minute deal next week before the current stimulus runs out.
     
    stock1234, Steven_Burt and T0rm3nted like this.
  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,034
    Likes Received:
    2,681
    Transports -1.32%, let's see if it can find its footing here.
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  14. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2016
    Messages:
    495
    Likes Received:
    281
    Ohhh that silver going on another run! Will it break the $21.24 resistance from 5 years ago?
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,523
    Likes Received:
    4,336
    Those high flying tech stocks that were struggling last week are back today :eek:
     
  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    7,379
    Likes Received:
    2,341
    Coming up on the next resistance level

    upload_2020-7-20_14-25-53.png
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,523
    Likes Received:
    4,336
    Market rallying into the close here :eek:
     
  18. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 24, 2016
    Messages:
    1,153
    Likes Received:
    631
    wow - so much for Tech lagging last week. Anyone think we see SPY get into the gap this week... with how things are going we might close that gap tomorrow:p
     
  19. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2016
    Messages:
    495
    Likes Received:
    281
    Apparently people didn’t think Amazon made so much money last Q with everyone quarantined and were quite happy k owing they did.
     
  20. Spicoli

    Spicoli New Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2020
    Messages:
    7
    Likes Received:
    3
    People waiting to see what tsla comes out with APT will probably blowout the earnings next week it started going up late today so did CLIR it started moving in the afternoon news came out last month on deal with XOM maybe others
     

Share This Page