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Stock Market Today: July 22nd - 26th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jul 19, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 22nd!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Halliburton, RPM International, TD Ameritrade, Steel Dynamics, Celanese, Cadence Designs, Whirlpool, Cal-Maine Foods, Zions Bancorp, Equity Lifestyle Properties

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Coca-Cola, Travelers, United Technologies, Hasbro, AutoNation, Lockheed Martin, JetBlue, Fifth Third, Visa, Snap, Biogen, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Discover Financial, Teradyne, FirstEnergy, CIT Group, Kimberly-Clark,PulteGroup, Quest Diagnostics, Harley Davidson, Polaris, Sherwin-Williams

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    1:00 p.m. 2-year auction

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Boeing, Caterpillar, AT&T, Facebook, Ford, Tesla, DeutscheBank, F5 Networks, Raymond James, Kaiser Aluminum, Graco, Las Vegas Sands,UPS, Northrop Grumman, Alexion Pharma, Anthem, Boston Scientific, FreeportMcMoran, Norfolk Southern, Northern Trust, Nasdaq OMX, Six Flags, NextEra Energy, LVMH

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    1:00 p.m. 5-year note auction

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Alphabet, Amazon.com, 3M, Intel, Starbucks, A-B Inveb, Ambev, AstraZenca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Comcast, Hershey, American Airlines, Nokia, Royal Caribbean, Tractor Supply, Brunswick, Dow, Diageo, Cenovus, Southwest Air, Expedia, Mattel, Alaska Air, Boston Beer, Petrobras, MGM Resorts,

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

    10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies

    1:00 p.m. 7-year note auction

    • Friday

    Earnings: McDonald’s, Twitter, Abbvie, Nestle, Colgate-Palmolive, Illinios Tool Works, Weyerhaueser, Lear, Cabot Oil and Gas, Phillips 66, Goodyear Tire

    8:30 a.m. Q2 GDP (advance)
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Downed Drones, Fed FUBAR, & Tanker Turmoil Spark Stock Slump; Silver Soars Most In 3 Years
    Anyone else feel like we're "on a highway to the danger zone" in stocks?


    Only China's tech-heavy ChiNext ended the week positive...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    NOTE - major vol in Trannies this week.



    Despite desperate efforts to get the S&P green for the week and above 3,000; tensions in Iran and The Fed walking back 50bps cut hopes were too much for the algos...

    [​IMG]



    NFLX was ugly...

    [​IMG]



    And The FANG stocks stalled at critical resistance...

    [​IMG]



    Microsoft surged to a new record high, well north of $1 trillion market cap, after earnings...

    [​IMG]



    VIX was higher on the week, testing 14, and while IG risk was flat, HY spreads jumped notably on the week...

    [​IMG]



    Bonds and Stocks remain extremely decoupled...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields ended the week lower, despite a spike today as The Fed desperately walked back Williams' comments...

    [​IMG]



    10Y Yields tumbled on the week...

    [​IMG]



    The yield curve (3m10Y) remains inverted for the 40th day (despite testing zero for the 5th time in a week)...

    [​IMG]



    The odds of a 50bps rate-cut plunged from over 70% after Williams' comments to just 22% tonight...

    [​IMG]

    For now, expectations are for around 30bps of cuts in July...

    [​IMG]



    The Fed's jawboning has rippled down to Main Street too...

    [​IMG]
    David [email protected]


    Expectations of lower interest rates in today’s UMich sentiment survey shot up to 19%, the highest level since May 2009! What do households see that investors don’t see??

    [​IMG]

    63

    11:07 AM - Jul 19, 2019
    Twitter Ads info and privacy

    42 people are talking about this





    Despite lots of intraday vol, thanks to The Fed's FUBAR communications strategy, the dollar ended the week higher...

    [​IMG]



    A very noisy week for cryptos with Ethereum the biggest loser...

    [​IMG]



    Bitcoin managed to get back above $10,000...

    [​IMG]



    Ethereum found support around $200 (and last weekend's flash crash lows)...

    [​IMG]



    Oil suffered its biggest weekly loss of the year (down over8%) as silver spiked...

    [​IMG]



    Silver soared over 6% on the week - the biggest weekly gain since July 2016; back above $16 (the highest in a year)...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE - Silver is very close to triggering a golden-cross.

    Silver dramatically outperformed gold on the week (after gold reached 26 year highs relative to silver)...

    [​IMG]



    WTI plunged from $61 to a $54 handle during the week as Iran tensions apparently de-escalated (just ignore the drone-shooting)...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE - WTI prices spiked late in the day after headlines that Iran captured a British tanker...

    [​IMG]



    Are we set for another cyclical shift lower in oil in silver terms?

    [​IMG]



    Finally, global central banks have officially flipped from hawkish to dovish...

    [​IMG]

    Because stocks are really in the "danger zone"...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Lagging Small-caps: Seasonal and Economic Factors Weigh
    [​IMG]
    Small-caps measured by the performance of the Russell 2000 have been lagging since mid-March with the gap in performance widening in June and continuing into July. At yesterday’s close the Russell 2000 was up 15.35% year-to-date compared to a gain of 19.87% for the Russell 1000. Based upon historical trends this is not unusual for this time of the year nor during times when U.S. economic data is mixed.

    In the following chart the one-year seasonal pattern of the Russell 2000/Russell 1000 has been plotted (solid black line with grey fill) along with 2019 year-to-date (blue line). This chart is similar to the chart found on page 110 of the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac. When the lines are rising small-caps are outperforming, when the lines are falling small-caps are lagging. Small-caps exhibited typical seasonal strength during the first quarter but have been fading ever since. In some years, small-cap strength can last until mid-June however, that is not the case this year. Going forward, small-cap underperformance is likely to persist until early in the fourth quarter with possible a hint of strength at the end of August.
    [​IMG]

    Robust Summer Rallies Trim Fall Pullbacks
    [​IMG]
    It’s usually about this time of the year, when trading volumes begin to slump and markets meander that we begin to hear talk of the infamous “Summer Rally” featured on page 74 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019. The “Summer Rally” is usually the weakest seasonal rally of them all.

    We looked at the current Summer Rally and found it to be above average already, up 10.2% from the Spring low on May 31, and that does portend well for the Summer and Fall Corrections. We lined up the Summer Rallies ranked from weakest to strongest since 1964. Over the past 55 years prior to this year DJIA has rallied and average of 9.1% from its May/June low until its Q3 high. The Fall Rally averages 10.9% and the Summer and Fall Corrections average a loss of just under 9% for a net average gain of a few percentage points over the summer and fall.

    As shown in the table below, when the Summer Rally is greater than or equal to the 55-year 9.1% average, the summer and fall correction tend to be bit milder, -6.2% and -8.2%, respectively. Summer Rally gains beyond 12.5% historically had the smallest summer and fall corrections. One prominent exception being 1987.
    [​IMG]

    Earnings (and Guidance) Likely to Make or Break the Rally
    [​IMG]
    Once again today, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at new all-time highs. With today’s modest gains, DJIA is up 17.3% year-to-date. S&P 500 is even better at 20.2% while NASDAQ is still best at 24.5%. Compared to historical average performance in pre-election years at this time of the year, DJIA and S&P 500 are comfortably above average. NASDAQ’s impressive 24.5% gain is just average (since 1971). NASDAQ’s Midyear Rally delivered again, but officially ended last Friday. The seasonal pattern charts, above and below, along with July’s typical performance over the last 21 years suggest further gains during the balance of July and the third quarter could be limited. For the market to make meaningful gains in the near-term earnings will need to decent and forward guidance will also need to be firm.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    "We Don't Need Your Stinking Data"
    Fri, Jul 19, 2019

    Yesterday was another one of those days that makes you scratch your head. In a relatively busy day for economic data, Initial Jobless Claims came in within 25K of a 50-year low, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing report saw its largest m/m increase in a decade. That follows other data last week where Retail Sales were very strong and CPI and PPI both came in ahead of consensus forecasts. The trend of better than expected data since the June employment report on July 5th is reflected in recent moves of the Citi Economic Surprise Index which has rallied from -68.3 up to -41.5. Granted, it’s still negative, but what was looking like a real dismal backdrop for the economy just three weeks ago seems to be showing signs of improvement.

    [​IMG]

    On top of the economic data, two notable interviews from FOMC officials Williams from New York and Vice Chair Clarida moved markets. Given the strong tone of economic data, one would expect both officials to try and tone down rising market expectations regarding any aggressive policy moves at the July meeting. Well, markets don’t always make sense.

    In their respective interviews, both Williams and Clarida not only didn’t tone down expectations, but they added fuel to the fire. Williams noted that “it pays to act quickly to lower rates" and "vaccinate” the economy "against further ills." Clarida was even more direct when he said that “Research shows you act preemptively when you can.” In other words, the data-dependent Fed is casting the data aside and ready to move anyway. In his interview on Fox Business, Clarida almost got a chuckle when asked whether there was any chance the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in July.

    The dovish turn from the Fed was immediately reflected in market expectations for rate policy at the July meeting. Back in June, market expectations for a 50 basis points (bps) cut at the next meeting peaked out at under 50%. Then, in the days following the June employment report, expectations dropped all the way down to 3%. In the last ten days, though, the trend has completely reversed, and as of yesterday’s close topped out at 71% versus just a 29% chance for a 25 bps cut. Probabilities for a 50 bps cut came in a bit overnight but are still at about 50/50. Yesterday alone, though, expectations for a 25 bps cut and a 50 bps cut more than completely reversed from the prior day, and remember, that’s after what was a good day of economic data! Can you imagine what expectations would be like if the data was actually bad?

    [​IMG]

    US Beats World When It Comes to Stocks
    Tue, Jul 16, 2019

    The Bloomberg World index is a cap-weighted index made up of nearly 5,000 stocks from around the world (including US stocks). While the S&P 500 has been hitting new all-time highs over the last week, the Bloomberg World index remains 7% below highs that it last made back in January 2018.

    [​IMG]

    Below is a chart showing the ratio of the S&P 500 to the Bloomberg World index since the World index's inception back in August 2003. While the World index outperformed the US for five years in the mid-2000s, the US has been outperforming since the end of 2007, which includes both the Financial Crisis and the bull market that has been in place since the 2009 lows.

    [​IMG]

    Along with the relative strength chart between the two indices above, below we show the price change of the S&P 500 versus the Bloomberg World index since August 2003. Through today, the S&P was up 203% versus a gain of 142% for the Bloomberg World index.

    [​IMG]

    Since the November 2016 election, the S&P 500 is up 40% versus a gain of 26% for the Bloomberg World index. Notably, the World index kept up with the S&P through early 2018, but weakness for the World index in mid-2018 and a failure to bounce back as much as the US this year has left the World index well behind.

    [​IMG]

    Best Performing Stocks Over the Last 12 Months
    Tue, Jul 16, 2019

    The S&P 500 is up over 20% YTD, but over the last 12 months, it is up just under 10% on a total return basis. And within the S&P 1500, there are only 44 stocks that are up more than 50% on a total return basis over the last 12 months. These 44 stocks are listed below.

    Innovative Industrials (IIPR) -- a cannabis REIT -- has been the best performing stock in the S&P 1500 over the last year with a total return of 302%. In second place is eHealth (EHTH) with a gain of 269%, followed by Avon Products (AVP) at +174.8% and Coca-Cola Bottling (COKE) at +128.58%. Coca-Cola Bottling is probably one of the last names you would have guessed as a top five performer over the last year! Other notables on the list of biggest winners include Advanced Micro (AMD), LendingTree (TREE), Starbucks (SBUX), AutoZone (AZO), Chipotle (CMG), Hershey (HSY), and Procter & Gamble (PG).

    Some names that aren't on the list that you may have expected to see? AMZN, NFLX, MSFT? Nope. None of the mega-cap Tech companies are on the list of biggest winners due to serious weakness from this group in Q4 2018.

    [​IMG]

    2% Days Few and Far Between
    Tue, Jul 16, 2019

    Although the last two trading days have seen exceptionally narrow daily ranges, today we wanted to take a quick look at the S&P 500's frequency of 2% daily moves (either up or down) in the post-WWII period. The chart below breaks out the frequency of 2% days by year, and years with more than 25 one-day moves of 2% are notated accordingly.

    Overall, there have been an average of 11 daily 2% moves in a given year. After five straight years from 2007 to 2011 where we saw an above-average number of 2% days, the last seven years have only seen one year with an above-average number of occurrences (2018, 21). Remember, in 2017 there wasn't one single trading day that saw the S&P move up or down 2%!

    So far this year, there have only been four 2% days, but with the most volatile part of the year on tap, we are likely to see that number increase in the months ahead. Don't expect the relative calm that we have seen in the last few trading days to last forever. Volatility is unpredictable and usually comes up and surprises you when you least expect it!

    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.19.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 19th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.21.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET UP!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 7.22.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 7.22.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.23.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.23.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.24.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.24.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.25.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.25.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.26.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.26.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($FB $AMZN $TSLA $BA $T $SNAP $PIXY $HAL $TWTR $KO $F $V $LMT $GOOGL $INTC $CAT $PYPL $BIIB $UTX $IRBT $XLNX $UPS $ABBV $CNC $NOK $CMG $MMM $RPM $SBUX $JBLU $BMY $GNC $MCD $CDNS $CADE $NOW $AMTD $HAS $HOG $ANTM $WM $CMCSA $FCX)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    The monthly candle so far for SPX
    [​IMG]
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I guess the British oil tanker wasn't a big deal.
     
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  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Semiconductors leading today. AMAT and LRCX upgraded by Goldman; LRCX reporting next week.
     
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  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    BYND nearing ATH with their report in one week.
     
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  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Let's see how this last hour finishes.
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    OldFart and bigbear0083 like this.
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I still haven’t tried its product, hopefully will try it soon, have heard some pretty good reviews :p
     
  20. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    i got in the stock last week, just sold it today, want to see how it does around 200.
     

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