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Stock Market Today: July 6th - 10th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jul 2, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of July 6th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

    • Tuesday

    9:00 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    10:00 a.m. JOLTS

    1:00 p.m. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles

    2:00 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on panel

    • Wednesday

    12:15 p.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

    3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade

    12:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. PPI
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Soar To Best Week In 3 Months As COVID-Comeback Concerns Mount
    Perhaps the market is seeing the scaremongering from health officials for what it is is and calling locking-down-politicians' bluffs? US COVID cases are soaring... (just don't mention the low death rates)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And that maybe why stocks were majestically pumped to their best week in almost 3 months as PMIs and jobs data beat (just don't mention jobless claims or factory orders)... After last Friday's COVID scare plunge, this week saw Nasdaq outperform, surging almost 6% to a new record high...

    [​IMG]

    But they did suffer a very weak close - erasing the jobs spike...

    [​IMG]

    $ES pic.twitter.com/oe8lFr4Az5

    — FXHedge (@Fxhedgers) July 2, 2020
    Year-to-date, gold is the best-performing asset, slightly outperforming bonds, with the dollar modestly higher while The Dow is down 9%

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    However, Nasdaq is just outperforming gold in 2020, up 19% at today's close...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Tech valuations are a little rich...just a smidge...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The S&P bounced almost perfectly off its 200DMA...

    [​IMG]

    The Dow was unable to break back above its 200DMA...

    [​IMG]

    Because, once again...





    Today's price action in factor land mimicced yesterday's - with an opening gap down in momo that was quickly panic bid...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Very little differentiation between cyclicals and defensives this week - just buy it all...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And opening surge in banks was sold all day...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Treasury market closed early today (at 1400ET) but on the week, the long-end notably underperformed (30Y +6bps, 2Y -1bps)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The 10Y Yield tried twice and failed to bet back above 70bps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar index fell on the week for the first time in 4 weeks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos dipped today, back into the red for the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    All the major commodities were higher this week, led by oil...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI is back above $40...

    [​IMG]

    Gold was briefly back above $1800 this week...

    [​IMG]

    Finally, nothing sums up the market idiocy like TSLA...

    Earnings, schmearnings...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    July Market Seasonality
    Wed, Jul 1, 2020

    At the start of each month, we send members our seasonality report that highlights the historical performance of the US stock market by month. In our July report published yesterday, we highlighted the chart below which shows the Dow's average change by month over the last 100, 50, and 20 years. One notable trend is that over the last 20 years, the Dow has actually averaged declines in half of all months. The summer months have been particularly negative, but July is the one month that stands out on the bullish side. As shown in the table, July is the only month from May through September that has averaged gains over the last 20 years, and the average gain has been quite strong at 1.32%. Click here to view Bespoke's premium membership options for our best research available.

    [​IMG]

    The Best Quarter Since 1998

    What a quarter the second quarter was, with the S&P 500 Index adding 20.0%, for the best quarter since 1998 and the best second quarter since 1938. Of course, stocks fell 20% in the first quarter, so what we really have is a bad case of whiplash in 2020 thus far.

    “A 20% quarterly gain is quite rare, but the catch is previous large quarterly gains have actually led to continued strength,” according to LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, a quarter later stocks have been higher the past 8 times after gaining at least 15% during the previous quarter.”

    As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, future strong returns are quite normal after a big quarter. Although it might not seem likely given the headlines and magnitude of the current bounce, it is important to be aware that extreme strength usually begets more strength.

    [​IMG]

    2020 is halfway over, which means the third quarter is upon us. Historically, the third quarter has been the weakest quarter of the year.

    [​IMG]

    Breaking it down more though shows that July has been actually the strongest month during the summer. August and September have tended to be troublesome and dragged the third quarter down.

    [​IMG]

    Why Stocks Can Predict The Next President

    Although the fight against COVID-19 continues to dominate the headlines and our thoughts are with those affected, this is an election year and as we get closer to November it will begin to garner more attention. Next week in our Weekly Market Commentary, we will discuss the election in more detail, but today we wanted to share a very interesting connection between the stock market and election.

    Turns out, since 1928, the stock market has accurately predicted the winner of the election 87% of the time and every single year since 1984. It is quite simple. When the S&P 500 Index has been higher the three months before the election, the incumbent party usually won, while when stocks were lower, the incumbent party usually lost.

    “Think about it; no one expected Hillary Clinton to lose back in 2016, no one except the stock market that is,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “The Dow had a 9-day losing streak directly ahead of the election, while copper (more of a President Trump infrastructure play) was up a record 14 days in a row, setting the stage for the change in party leadership in the White House.”

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, as we get closer to the election, how stocks are doing could signal who might win in November.

    [​IMG]

    First Half and Q2 2020 Asset Class Performance
    Wed, Jul 1, 2020

    Global pandemics, bear markets, bull markets, countless records in economic data, and widespread protests made for an eventful first half of 2020, to say the least. In the table below we show the total return of various asset classes using key ETFs in June, Q2, and the first half of 2020. As shown, overall the best performing assets in June could be found outside the US as international stocks surged. Hong Kong (EWH) in particular was the best performing asset in June. Oil (USO) similarly saw solid returns of 8.42% during the month but remained the second-worst performing asset in Q2 behind Natural Gas (UNG) which was also the worst-performing asset in June. Additionally, oil was the worst-performing asset in the first half of the year. Meanwhile, although their returns were more muted in Q2 and June, Treasuries (namely at the long end of the curve) were some of the top performers in the first half. Precious metals similarly were strong performers in the first half with particular strength from silver (SLV) in Q2. Silver actually saw returns in line with cyclical equities in Q2.

    In terms of the US equities space, the Tech heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) drastically outperformed closing out June with a 16.91% gain in the first half. In Q2 and June, it was also the best performing major index by a wide margin. On a sector basis, Technology (XLK), Energy (XLE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) all rose over 30% in Q2 just like the Nasdaq did, though their first half and June returns were more modest with the exception of the Tech sector whose returns were more in line with that of the Nasdaq.

    Investing based on market cap saw some interesting dynamics as well. Even though small caps are some of the major US indices down the most on the year—S&P 600 Small Caps (IJR) are down 17.89% and the Russell 2000 (IWM) is down 12.96% YTD—there was some catch up in June as these indices were some of the best performers. That applies to both growth and value names though small cap value (IJS) is still one of the most beaten-down groups in the US equities space. On the other hand, large-cap growth (IVW) offered the strongest returns in June, Q2, and the first half when compared to the various other style ETFs.

    Outside of the US, even with big gains in June, countries like Brazil (EWZ), France (EWQ), Italy (EWI), and Spain (EWP) remain down big on the year.

    [​IMG]

    Market Stronger Before Independence Day Holiday than After
    [​IMG]
    Over the last 21 years, the trading day before Independence Day has been stronger than the day after. DJIA and S&P 500 have advanced 60.9% of the time with average gains of 0.15% and 0.12% respectively on the day before. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are slightly softer on the day before, but still lean bullish. On the trading day after Independence Day all four indexes have declined more frequently than advanced. DJIA has recorded the fewest number of advances while Russell 2000 has the worst average performance with a 0.14% loss.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 7.3.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 7.3.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for July 2nd, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 7.5.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
    kadlwise likes this.
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 7.6.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Monday 7.6.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 7.7.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 7.7.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.8.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 7.8.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.9.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 7.9.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 7.10.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 7.10.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Finally a little bit of a selloff for the EV stocks like NKLA and WKHS, they have been on a tear :eek:
     
  14. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    This market is like one large pump and dump scheme right now so you have to play it like one
     
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  15. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    man TSLA does not disappoint lol, this is crazzzzy.
     
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  16. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    #16 Vdubman, Jul 6, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2020
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Guess I got lucky getting into LVGO last week, this thing is on a tear today :eek:
     
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    XBI up 3%, biotech has been the star during this pandemic :eek:
     
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  20. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    *since the market bottom during the pandemic
     
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