Treasury yields down 1m -1.31% 2y -3.28% 10y -1.08% 30y +0.03% But the good news is the yield curve is steepening because the 2y is down so much, and the 30y is holding flat.
Crunch Time For Semis The next couple of days could prove to be very important for the semis. After falling just shy of 20% from its intraday high in mid-April to its intraday low at the end of May, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rallied over 10% to yesterday's intraday high before pulling back into the close. The fact that the SOX pulled back where it did is notable because it came right as the index had retraced 50% of the decline from the April highs. As shown in the chart below, the mid-point between April's high and May's low was 1,445.78, and yesterday's high was less than five points lower at 1,440.8. Semis opened lower again this morning, so the longer the weakness persists, the more it will look like a failed rally. But if the group bounces from here or even marks time near current levels and then bounces, it would send a positive signal for the group and broader tech in general. Looking through the list, the majority of stocks are up over 4% in the last week, so they've definitely had a nice few days. Despite the gains, though, just two stocks listed are trading at overbought levels, and only four are above their 50-DMA. Given they aren't even close to overbought, the group clearly has more room to run. At the same time, though, if the rally fails to hold before the majority of members could even get back above their 50-DMAs, that wouldn't say much for the group's prospects.
Still a pretty bad day for the banks stocks with rates heading lower despite the yield curve is steepening a little bit
did you mean cut i still have a habit of doing that too haha ... it's amazing to me how we can go from hike to cut in just a couple of months time next wenesday will be one of the more interesting fomc meetings that we've had in a really long time as we'll get the announcement as well as the powell presser no cut is expected on the announcement but what they say about the upcoming meetings (especially the july one) will be very interesting we may just chop around here until that meeting next wed. is my guess
Thanks for correcting me Cy. For the last couple of years we have been talking about the rate hikes and seems like I am not getting used to the word “cut” just yet Yeah the FED probably won’t cut next week. Will be interesting to see if the FED will upset the market if it doesn’t send a strong signal that the cut is coming
Morning Lineup - That's No Bull Thu, Jun 13, 2019 As one might expect given the big rally over the last several days, bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors ticked higher this week, but at just 26.8%, the latest sentiment survey from AAII shows that the vast majority of investors have been slow to get back in the pool as bearish sentiment remains elevated at 34.20% and the percentage of investors who just can't make up their mind increased to 39%. For today, all eyes are on Jobless Claims which came in at 222K versus estimates for a reading of 215K. Going forward, this afternoon's earnings report from Broadcom (AVGO) will help to decide the path that semis take to close out the week. On the subject of Industrial Production out of Europe, this morning's print of a decline was right inline with expectations, but that doesn't mean it was particularly good. As shown in the chart below, m/m readings have now only increased two times in the last eleven months!
S&P 500 Sectors: Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages 54% of stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. This indicator has been in a downtrend since peaking in February when breadth exploded higher. Below we show similar breadth readings by S&P 500 sector. Utilities, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Materials currently have the strongest readings (all above 60%), while Energy is currently the weakest sector with just 10% of its stocks above their 50-day moving average. The ever-important Technology sector currently has a reading of 50%, which means exactly half of the sector's stocks are above their 50-DMAs. It doesn't get more neutral than that! Given its massive weighting, whichever direction Tech breaks in the coming days will likely set the near-term trend for the overall market.
spx sitting right about mid range that it has been in for the past year now ... mentioned it yesterday but my feeling is outside of a black swan event, we're probably gonna be chopping it up here until next wednesday's fed meeting
Interest rates lower and stocks higher again, the FED better not disappoint the market next week on the potential rate cut
kind of an interesting stat i just ran across in my quick reads this afternoon that i was not actually aware of... did you know that the fed has actually cut interest rates on the same day that the SPX had made new ATHs in the past? it happened on 5 instances. (jan '06, july '95, aug '91, july '89 and '90). also, the past 2 times the fed first cut rates the market corrected notably (in 2001 and 2007), but going back a bit further it has actually bode very well for the market. in the other 5 instances since 1984 the market a year later was higher.
That’s kinda interesting, before reading this I would have thought rate cuts were pretty rare when the market was at ATH
CHWY IPO tomorrow. Might throw a small gamble on it since they're all doing so well. Something I can afford to lose.
^^ this i'm also thinking after the g20 meet later this month we could be heading into the traditional "summer doldrums" where things begin to slow down significantly ... hopefully not ... but if no surprises after next week's fed meeting and nothing meaningful comes about from the g20 later this month, we only really have earnings season to look forward to ... unless we get a geopolitical black swan surprise (*cough* iran? *cough*) who knows
