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Stock Market Today: June 17th - 21st, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jun 15, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of June 17th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. NAHB

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Tuesday

    FOMC begins 2-day meeting

    Earnings: Adobe, Jabil Circuit, La-Z-Boy, Parsons

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Oracle, Winnebago, Barnes and Noble, American Outdoor Brands

    2:00 p.m. Fed statement

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Darden Restaurants, Canopy Growth, Red Hat, Kroger,Commercial Metals

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

    8:30 a.m. Current account

    • Friday

    Earnings: CarMax

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Markets Stuck In Limbo As Traders Brace For Next Week's Fireworks
    Heading into today's session, the mood had already soured on chip names after Broadcom's dismal guidance cut, which slammed tech names in Asia and Europe, and which pressured the Semiconductor sector lower all day, and also prevented the Nasdaq from turning green all day.

    [​IMG]

    The latest econ data from China did not help, with Industrial Production missing the lowest estimate, and printing at a 17 year low in the latest confirmation that Beijing's attempt to reflate the local economy is failing, even as retail sales staged a modest rebound from last month's disastrous print.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    ... yet even so, the odds of a July rate cut barely shifted, remaining solidly above 80%, suggesting that not even strong econ reports can dent the Fed's intention for an "insurance" cut.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile as stocks drifted, so did Tsy yields, with the 10Y back to 2.09%, after sliding below 2.06% earlier in the session, before rebounding to unchanged, even as the recent trend is clearly lower, and a 1 handle is distinctly possible next week if the Fed does in fact surprise dovishly.

    [​IMG]

    Things were more dramatic in Europe, where the 10Y Bund hit a new negative record of -0.27%...

    [​IMG]

    ... as European 5Y5Y inflation swaps also hit a new all time low as central bank credibility is rapidly evaporating.

    [​IMG]

    Worse, as BofA showed earlier, the yield on global sovereign debt (ex the US) is back to all time lows....

    [​IMG]

    ... as deflation is once again the norm, while the amount of negative yielding debt is back to all time highs.

    [​IMG]

    Well, deflation for everyone but the US perhaps, because in FX, the dollar once again reigned supreme, with the yen, euro and cable all sliding, while the DXY - having rebounded perfectly off the 200DMA - was rising toward its next big resistance level around 98, while the BBDXY emerged back over 1200 offsetting much of the market's recent fears of a Fed rate cut. It does beg the question: what if anything can bring the dollar lower?

    [​IMG]

    Perhaps the most interesting asset of the day was gold, which a growing number of investing legends are starting to buy into what will be the Fed's next easing cycle, yet which after attempting to breakout above a 2 year resistance earlier in the day, was smacked down sliding $20 from intraday highs (thanks to the rebound in the dollar), suggesting that another breakout attempt is due next week.

    [​IMG]

    And so, as we enter the most important week of the year, equity traders remain surprisingly calm, even as rate vol continues to soar and commodity volatility is not too far behind.

    [​IMG]

    Still, as we noted earlier, next week could result in turmoil in rates vol, where one or more dealers is said to be nursing a major, $100MM+ rate vol loss, and should the Fed turn even more dovish, said turmoil could well and finally migrate to the equity space as well.

    [​IMG]

    And so, after what was a largely wasted day, we look toward next week's fireworks, where BofA laid out a matrix of what to expect between the two key events: the G-20 meeting and the FOMC, and where the range of outcomes could send the S&P from below 2,650 to above 3,000.



    [​IMG]

    In short, brace for a violent return in volatility.
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    The Bespoke Report - To Cut, or Not to Cut, That is the Question
    Fri, Jun 14, 2019

    We've just published our weekly Bespoke Report newsletter, which covers all of the topics you need to be aware of as an investor. After a sharp bounce off the lows on 6/3, the S&P 500 stopped to refuel this week as it readies itself for some key events in the coming weeks that will likely help to steer the market's direction into the end of the second quarter. The first of those events (barring any surprising tweets from the President) is next week’s FOMC meeting where Jay Powell will be forced to reconcile the differences between what members of his committee have been saying and what the market is expecting for the July meeting.

    On the one hand, economic data doesn’t seem anywhere close to warranting a cut in rates, but economic data is obviously backward looking. Members of the FOMC will be forced to weigh the data with other factors like the message of the yield curve, falling inflation, and even more importantly, plummeting inflation expectations. In addition to those factors, Fed officials must also weigh what’s going on with trade. For starters, can rate cuts even do anything to offset the potential drag that comes from tariffs and a potential trade war? In addition to that, a lot of the trade tensions can easily be undone just as easily as they were put into place. What happens if the FOMC cuts rates and trade issues are worked out shortly thereafter? Confused? Just be thankful you don’t have to make the decisions!

    [​IMG]

    Next Week's Economic Indicators - 6/14/19
    Fri, Jun 14, 2019

    This week's economic data came out to a slow and disappointing start as the JOLTS report showed fewer job openings in April than expected and was below the March number. That was the only release on Monday, but activity picked up on Tuesday with a strong NFIB Small Business Optimism report, continuing the second longest streak of monthly gains for the indicator (discussed in Tuesday's Chart of the Day). Producer inflation also came out Tuesday, with a weaker headline print but improved core inflation. Wednesday's CPI also saw some weakness missing expectations on both headline and core measures. Fortunately, we rounded out the week with a heavy slate on Friday with beats nearly across the board. Retail Sales impressed in addition to the previous month being revised up. Industrial production was also stronger than expected while the University of Michigan consumer sentiment improved to 112.5.

    [​IMG]

    Next week quiets down with only 19 releases. June's Empire Manufacturing index from the NY Fed kicks things off followed by homebuilder sentiment. Further in housing data, starts and permits will be out Tuesday morning. While starts are expected to rise, permits are forecasting a small downtick. Later in the week on Friday, existing home sales are forecasted to rise to 5.27 mm SAAR homes. On Wednesday, all eyes will be on the FOMC rate decision. Over the past couple of months, markets have increasingly been betting on the FOMC deciding to cut rates at this meeting or (more likely) in the near future. This event should provide some clarity into this situation. We will finish next week with the Leading Index on Thursday and preliminary June Markit PMIs on Friday.

    [​IMG]

    B.I.G. Tips - Retail Sales: Even Stronger Below the Surface
    Fri, Jun 14, 2019

    While it may not have looked like anything special based on the weaker than expected headline reading, there actually wasn’t much not to like about May’s Retail Sales report. In addition to being slightly better than expected after stripping out Autos and Gas, April’s report was revised significantly higher.

    The table below shows monthly streaks of gains or losses for each of the sectors tracked in the Retail Sales report. Here we can see how broad and consistent the strength has been in Retail Sales after taking revisions into account. Five sectors have seen m/m growth for five straight months, and no group has seen more than one straight month of decline. Bars and Restaurants are one group that has seen sales growth for five consecutive months, and while it has yet to overtake Food and Beverage Stores in terms of its total share of sales, it’s getting close.

    [​IMG]

    Trend Analyzer - 6/14/19 - Growth and Earnings Outperform
    Fri, Jun 14, 2019

    One week ago, small-caps—like the Micro-Cap ETF (IWC), Russell 2000 (IWM), and Core S&P Small Cap (IJR)—and the Nasdaq (QQQ) had all been unable to move out of oversold territory like the other major index ETFs. That has changed this week as all of the US index ETFs tracked in our Trend Analyzer tool are currently neutral. While they have moved out of oversold, small-caps are still lagging in the sense that they remain the furthest below the 50-DMA. Other indices either sit just below or have broken above in the past week. The Nasdaq has seen the most notable move towards the 50-day, surging 3.27% out of oversold territory. A weak earnings report from Broadcom (AVGO) last night has put pressure on the semis, and as a result, the broader technology sector and a tech-heavy Nasdaq. This is likely to eat into some of these gains today so it may take a bit longer until QQQ takes out the 50-day.

    [​IMG]

    Over the past week, like the major index ETFs, the different style ETFs are almost entirely sitting at neutral. Although, there are some outliers like the S&P Low Volatility (SPLV) which is working its way out of extreme overbought levels (presumably as a flight to safety following May declines). One trend this week but also generally in 2019 to take note of is the outperformance of growth stocks versus value. Broadly speaking, the growth-focused ETFs like the Growth ETF (VUG) have been outperforming their value-focused peers by around 1% in the past week. This is the case across most of the indices and market caps, though, S&P Small and Mid Cap have seen slight outperformance of value. This is more evident in small caps. Additionally, earnings has been outpacing dividend-focused ETFs.

    [​IMG]

    What Do Stocks Do After The First Rate Cut?
    Posted by lplresearch

    It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) will cut rates at the upcoming July meeting, with the potential for as many as three total rate cuts this year. This would be the first rate cut since the Fed started hiking rates in December 2015. Concerns over trade and the global economy have sparked much of this worry.

    With the S&P 500 Index up nearly 15% for the year, what could this potential first rate cut mean for stocks? After all, the Fed cut rates in January 2001 and September 2007 right ahead of recessions and massive stock market corrections. Could another bear market and recession be headed our way if the Fed cuts rates soon?

    “The previous two times the Fed cut rates for the first time in 2001 and 2007, we saw stocks eventually get cut in half,” explained LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “But the reality is if you go back further in time, you can also see explosive rallies after that first cut.”

    As our LPL Chart of the Day, “Not All Rate Cuts Are Created Equal”, shows, since 1984 there have been seven rate cuts that took place after at least one rate hike. The two most recent cuts were followed by poor performance over the next 12 months, but the other five cuts saw solid gains. In fact, the median return for the S&P 500 one year out has been a very impressive 13.9%, which suggests a potential rate cut over the coming months might not be as worrisome as many make it out to be.

    [​IMG]

    June’s Boon – 5% DJIA Gain Already
    [​IMG]
    Nearly two weeks ago we examined the history of June market performance after a down May following a strong January to April. That analysis suggested that this June could produce above average market gains. Thus far, the market has not disappointed. As of today’s close, DJIA is up 5.03% already this June. NASDAQ is second best, up 4.96%. S&P 500 and Russell 1000 are 4.89% higher. Russell 2000 is the laggard of the group, higher by a still respectable 3.96%. The true test for the market will arrive in the second half of the month as the end of the quarter nears. Historically, the second half of June has not been great for the market.

    NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Advance/Decline Lines Lagging
    [​IMG]
    Typically at this time of the year, first half of June, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are often leading DJIA and S&P 500. Historically, the month of June has been kinder to technology and small-cap stocks than others. Sure, June has been quite robust so far, but it has been DJIA and S&P 500 leading the charge higher. Their strength is also confirmed by NYSE and S&P 500 cumulative Advance/Decline lines at new highs already. NASDAQ and Russell 2000 cumulative Advance/Decline lines are weaker have not exceeded the highs reached last year. At the least, NASDAQ’s Advance/Decline line likely needs improvement for the market to make any meaningful headway.

    Has the Market Entered Its Summer Sideways Phase?
    [​IMG]
    After bouncing rather solidly off support at 2725 the S&P 500 has run in to some resistance at 2910. This looks like the beginning of the annual summertime sideways phase the market often experiences. Decent economic readings and a dovish Fed are likely to prop equities up some over the usually weaker summer months. While on the other had ongoing trade battles and other political and international skirmishes as well as lower oil, rates and growth are likely to keep a lid on stocks. This sets up the market for some range bound volatility between S&P 2700 and 2900 give or take a few points. Critical support remains at the 2580 near the February/April 2018 lows. A resolution to the China trade deal or some firming in the data could push us higher and deterioration on all fronts would likely push us lower. For now expect backing and filling over the next several months.

    June Option Expiration Can Be Volatile
    [​IMG]
    The second Triple Witching Week (Quadruple Witching if you prefer) of the year brings on some volatile trading with losses frequently exceeding gains. NASDAQ has the weakest record on the first trading day of the week. Triple-Witching Friday is usually better, DJIA has been up ten of the last sixteen years.

    Full-week performance is choppy as well, littered with greater than 1% moves in both directions. The week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 25 of the last 29 years with an average decline of 1.09%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 29-year span, declining 0.73% and 0.23% respectively on average.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 6.14.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for June 14th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6.16.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (NOT YET UP!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 6.17.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 6.17.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 6.18.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 6.18.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 6.19.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 6.19.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 6.20.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 6.20.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 6.21.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 6.21.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  12. Stoch

    Stoch Active Member

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    Q2 GDP estimate got a boost from the retail numbers Friday. This would make it even harder to suggest a rate cut from the Fed for a 2.1% quarter. I'm not sure the Fed is really proactive enough to consider a cut before the numbers deteriorate further. Does the market have a tantrum without a rate cut? I think so. Though they could soften the language a little to hold out the hope of a future cut, But no way the 0.5 or 0.75% cuts they are pricing in.

    Latest forecast: 2.1 percent — June 14, 2019

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2019 is 2.1 percent on June 14, up from 1.4 percent on June 7. After this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau, and this morning's industrial production report from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 3.2 percent to 3.9 percent.

    [​IMG]
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup - Marking Time
    Mon, Jun 17, 2019

    It's a big week on tap for financial markets as the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. While odds of a cut at this meeting are low, with the probability of a cut at the July meeting still over 80%, investors will be looking for some direction as to whether those high odds are warranted or misplaced. Ahead of the meeting, investors have been pretty much sitting on their hands for the last several days not wanting to take a stand in either direction.

    As mentioned above, investors have been on the sidelines over the last few days ahead of this Wednesday's FOMC meeting, and the chart below from page two of the Morning Lineup illustrates that holding pattern. The fact that the S&P 500 and just about every sector have little or no tails on them indicates how little in the way of movement there has been over the last week.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Aaannnddddd we're off! Good luck to everyone this week!
     
  17. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    VIX is somehow up today, but just barely over 15 (15.4).
     
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    i think this meme just about says it all for the market action this week :p

    [​IMG]

    prob no big moves ahead of that absent a black swan, plus the summer doldrums now setting in...
     
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  19. JustradingUS

    JustradingUS New Member

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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah I probably won’t trade much at all until Wednesday. If gold pulls back significantly on the disappointment from the FED then I would be interested to get in :D
     
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