Stock Market Today: June 17th - 21st, 2019

Strike Three

Back in early May when President Trump put hopes of a trade deal with China on hold, one of the groups hardest hit was semiconductors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) declined 19.8% from its intraday high in late April to its low on 5/29 and first traded back below its 50-day moving average (DMA) on 5/13. From its low, the SOX has erased just about half of its losses from the April high, but three times now, the group has seen a rally stall out right at or below its 50-DMA. As long as the SOX is able to hold on to its higher low from earlier this week, it's not much of a problem, but if it goes on to make a new short-term low, it would be a worrisome sign.



With the SOX failing to retake its 50-DMA, we wanted to see which stocks in the group have been holding the group back. The table below lists each of the components of the SOX and where each one is trading relative to its 50-DMA. Of the 30 stocks in the index, just 13 are currently above their 50-DMA, while the remaining 17 are still below that level, so it's not as though just a handful of stocks are holding the SOX back. Micron (MU), MKS Instruments (MKSI), Cree (CREE), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Qorvo (QRVO) are all more than 5% below their 50-DMAs, while Cypress (CY), Advanced Micro (AMD), and Silicon Motion (SIMO) are the only three stocks more than 5% above their 50-DMAs.

 

^^ this 110%!

my feeling is that if we ever get another whiff of hawkishness from the fed again, look out below

for now it does seem like we are once again back in that "bad news = awesome news" for equity markets

BTFD seems to be back on in full swing again ... or should i say BTFATH (buy the f'n ATH )

 

Worst Stocks in June Taking a Turn

Headed into the final hour of trading, with oil surging over 5.7% on the back of tensions escalating with Iran, energy stocks have been the top performers today. Capital Goods and the Software and Services industries are also experiencing strong rallies today. A strong earnings report from Oracle (ORCL) has been the major catalyst for Software and Services. The only industry groups to have moved lower are Consumer Services, Telecom, and Banks. Another factor in some stocks' gains today has also been recent weakness so far this month.

In the chart below, we break up the S&P 500 into deciles (groups of 50) based on month-to-date performance headed into today's trading. As shown, the 10th decile made up of the weakest stocks in June through yesterday's close (the only decile with MTD decliners) has been one of the best-performing groups. The average stock in this decile is up 1.11% today. That is the joint second best performance across these deciles shared with the second-best performers on a MTD basis. Additionally, the best-performing stocks in June have continued to rally over 1% on average today. But neither the best nor worst MTD stocks are the leading decile, that actually belongs to the fourth decile with an average gain of 1.19%. Some names in this decile include ULTA (ULTA), Phillips 66 (PSX), and BlackRock (BLK).

The best-performing stock in June has been Under Armor (UAA) with an MTD gain through yesterday's close of 18.82%. It is down around 1.17% today. Whirlpool (WHR), which has seen similar performance MTD, is holding up a tiny bit better, but is still in the red today, down 0.3%. On the other end of MTD performance, GAP (GPS) has gotten crushed in June falling over 12.5%. The losses have kept coming today as it has fallen just under half of a percent more. But the second-worst performer this month, Noble Energy (NBL), has been lifted by strength in energy and has rallied 6% today; nearly erasing all of its June losses.

 

haha yeah, if this keeps up they'll be throwing these out on the floor of the nyse

 

yep and that's now the 5th ATH close for the SPX in 2019 and the 1,440th since WWII

 

next week we'll be closing the books on the month of june, but so far this is the best june for the spx since 1955

 

Morning Lineup - On Again, Off Again
Fri, Jun 21, 2019

After authorizing a strike on Iran last night, President Trump reportedly abruptly called it off, putting the US's response to the shooting down of a drone over international waters into question again. US futures, understandably, are trading modestly lower on the uncertainty as the on again off again series of breakouts to new highs pauses again. Since January of last year, the S&P 500 has now made four separate runs to new highs, but in the grand scheme of things has little to show for it, although so far in 2019, the first half is shaping up to be a very good one.

Ahead of the weekend today, there are no earnings reports to speak of, but we will get PMI data from Markit for June, and US Existing Home Sales at 10 AM

The ongoing tensions in Iran have provided a much-needed boost to oil prices. Through this morning, WTI crude has rallied 9.54% on the week. If this pace holds through the close, it will be the best week for 'black gold' since December 2016.

 

Well I’m taking the day off from monitoring the market today. Happy first day of summer to everyone today! Get out if you can. Enjoy the nice warm season with your family and friends. Have a great w/e if I didn’t get a chance to say it later. Thanks again to y’alls for the great contributions on the thread this week!

 

hah, i guess i'll also follow that up with it's been a very good quarter for the bulls

back for the close, can't stay away from the market for too long, always got that itch