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Stock Market Today: June 3rd - 7th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Jun 1, 2019.

  1. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    bigbear0083 likes this.
  2. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    OddStats says a big green day in June is followed by a red week 77% of the time in last 20 years. Average (median) return is -0.84% for the week.
    https://twitter.com/OddStats/status/1136044004334682112

    Here's every +2% day in June over the past 20 years and how $SPX did after. Negative over the next trading week 77% of the time. Interesting that the "next day" was never once +/- 1%.

    [​IMG]
     
  3. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I know it was just a conspiracy theory, but if Trump really wanted to tank the market to force Powell to lower rates, he(?) wouldn't be putting out stuff like this.
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  4. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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  5. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I guess Trump will continue to use "low inflation" as an argument to push the FED to lower rates :p The bonds market and the dollar are really pushing the FED to lower rates right now :eek:
     
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  6. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Just like that we are well above of 2800 again for the SPX and it is just down less than 4% from its ATH :p It is amazing that this market is all about the FED at this moment :p
     
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  7. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    BYND up 17% after earnings :eek:
     
  8. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Yeah BYND hit $125 after hours. Do I short it here (in our daily contest of course, irl premiums for borrowing are too high), or let it go full TLRY?

    My broker is saying 112% if I want to borrow short. Anyone who shorts has to become a buyer very soon.
     
  9. SensibleInvesting

    SensibleInvesting New Member

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    We're approaching the end of week 1, June 2019. The G20 is in about 3 weeks, and there seems to be no deescalation of the ongoing trade dispute between USA and China; in fact, it's further escalating e.g.: Mexico.

    Having said this, I think it's important that we take a step back and really view what this all means to China in the greater scheme of things:

    • China is poised to double their consumption (at least) by 2030;
    • GDP will still grow at ~6% for another 3 years, slowing to 4 - 5% for the next 5 - 10;
    • The number of online shoppers in China will almost triple the entire population of the USA
    • China has created over 70 million service jobs in the last 5 years, but only lost 14 manufacturing jobs
    • The Chinese middle, upper-middle, and upper class will triple in size in 10 years - totaling ~600 million
    • Chinese disposable income will more than triple
    • China will become a net importer like the USA, and will consume at an exponential rate - in 2018, net imports increased to >$2.1T - a 15.8% increase YoY
    • The lower tier cities in China will grow faster than the upper tiers; their spending/consumption and net population already exceed the T1/T2 cities, and the income gap between upper tier vs. lower tier is narrowing


    In light of this, we really have to ask ourselves whether the most recent market selloff is overdone. I think it is, and have been doing a deep dive into Alibaba; based on my research, I believe Alibaba will benefit more from China's impending tailwinds more than any other company in China - the ecosystem they're creating is scary, and I believe the market has got it wrong by taking such a reactive/short-term view.
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Bonds (+0.94%), Gold (+0.43%) and Stocks (+0.88%) all up.
     
  12. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    XBI not participating in the rally the last 2 days.

    I don't like to make forecasts, but I have a feeling next week might be rough. Could be wrong, but we will see.
     
  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Stocks overbought in 15-min charts. Looking for a pullback.
    Meanwhile VIX down less than 1%. If that doesn't go down more, then any (theoretical) pullback might not get a good bounce.
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    If you did anything today you made money in the first 90 minutes.
    Moved to bonds?
    Bought the dip in stocks?
    Bought gold for your bunker?
    Bought volatility?
    Bought oil because to hell with the environment?
    Everything making money. But, from whom?
     
  15. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Well the action today pretty much confirm that bad economic news is now great news for the market :p This market could be in some serious trouble if the FED becoming less dovish all of the sudden :p
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Today action feels kinda like when we were in the earlier stage of QE, bonds, gold, and stocks go up together. Kinda strange that the VIX is up though despite the market is deep in the green :eek:
     
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  17. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    Was this happening back in December/January of 2017/2018?
     
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Haha, so you are saying the worse the econ. news gets the greater the chances of getting back to new ATHs in the market? :p

    That sounds so weird, but I think it’s accurate. :D

    Yeah, like I said yesterday this feels so much like the QE days all over again.

    Basically everything was going up, except for the dollar and bond yields :p

    I’d be curious to hear how much we all think this recent bounce back in the market is related to the FED and how much related to delayed tariff talk?

    I said it yesterday I feel like this has almost entirely been fed driven. Funny because nothing material has actually happened yet as far as fed cuts, mostly all HOPIUM at this point :p
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Whelp looks like that is precisely what indeed happened haha. It was quite hysterical to see the market actually take a leg higher in the pre a few minutes after the report :p
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I say it is mostly the FED also. The delayed tariffs for Mexico doesn’t hurt but probably wouldn’t have driven the market that much higher :D
     
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