Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 11th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Coupa Software, Casey's General 8:30 a.m. Retail sales (January) 10:00 a.m. Business inventories Tuesday Earnings: Dick's Sporting Goods, Volkswagen, Momo, ZTO Express 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 8:30 a.m. CPI 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Wednesday Earnings: Adidas, Tribune Publishing, Cloudera, Domo 8:30 a.m. Durable goods 8:30 a.m. PPI 10:00 a.m. Construction spending Thursday Earnings: Ulta Beauty, Jabil Circuit, Broadcom, Dollar General, Oracle, Azul, Embraer, Zumiez 8:30 a.m. Jobless claims 8:30 a.m. Import prices 10:00 a.m. New home sales Friday 8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. JOLTS 4:00 p.m. TIC data
Trannies Tumble To Worst Losing Streak Since Nixon As Yields Hit 2019 Lows Biggest US payrolls miss since 2008 and biggest collapse in China exports in years (after the biggest credit injection ever)... Take your pick from China - tech-heavy small-cap dominated CHINEXT surged over 5% while megacap-heavy China 50 tumbled almost 5%...(SHCOMP ended the week marginally lower with the worst day since October and first losing week of the year)... By the end of the week, only UK's FTSE managed to hold on to gains as weakness rippled through global markets in the latte half of the week... Dow, S&P, Nasdaq and Small Caps are down 5 days in a row but The Dow Transports is now down 11 days in a row - the longest losing streak since Nixon in 1972... This week was the first down week for US stocks since 2018... Small Caps were the biggest laggards The machines went wild as always, desperate to get stocks green on the day... Everything green from the shitty payrolls print... Stocks tried twice to accelerate and ignite momentum for a green push but China trade headlines in the last hour spoiled the party briefly before the panic bid ensued, pushing the market above the pre-payrolls levels... "Most Shorted" Stocks are down 7 days in a row (first down week of the year) Buyback-related stocks are also down 8 of the last 9 days... The S&P and Nasdaq both broke back below their 200DMA this week... FANG Stocks suffered their biggest loss of 2019 this week...notably breaking back below its 200DMA Semis were slaughtered - worst week of the year... About two-thirds of its members are down, led by Marvell Tech after disappointing earnings. There was also a Nikkei report that the global semiconductor market contracted in January for the first time in 30 months. Momentum on the SOX is negative, as measured by the MACD. Falling below the 200-DMA could be an excuse for a broader selloff in stocks, I pointed out yesterday. Credit spreads have widened 5 days in a row (and VIX is up 5 days in a row), blowing out by the most since Dec 21st... The VIX term structure has re-inverted... Treasury yields tumbled all week, with the belly outperforming... The long-end dropped back to a 3.01 handle - erasing last week's losses... And the belly reached down to its lowest since the first day of the year... In fact the belly is the richest it has been in years (5Y lowest relative to the 2s10s curve) as bond traders are no longer so concerned about a policy error, but still seem to be pricing in a major growth slowdown in the next few years. And before we leave bond land, we note that 10Y CAD yields are now less than 2bps above the BOC policy rate!!! After rising for 7 days straight, the dollar index tumbled today but remains above the key 97.00 level... Yuan weakened - as you'd expect with USD gains - but closed at the lows of the week after Xi headlines... After yesterday's bloodbath to a new record low, Argentina's Peso rebounded notably as BCRA raised its benchmark rate by 500bps to 56.76%!! Litecoin had a big week but the rest of Crypto was practically flat... Despite the dollar surge on the week, PMs and oil gained on the week - rallying after the dismal jobs data... WTI dropped off $57 and bounce back off $55... Today's dismal jobs data sparked a revival in gold - bouncing off unchanged for 2019... And Gold rebounded notably against the Yuan... Finally, deja vu all over again? Because the gap to reality is wide...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019- S&P sectors for the past week-
The Bespoke Report — The KISS Market Mar 8, 2019 Global equity markets had a rough week, but the US staged a nice intraday rally on Friday after an NFP-driven gap lower. Global economic data has been rough, but there are reasons for optimism. In this week’s Bespoke Report, we talk about earnings, smart money flows, retail flows, economic data, and upticks in US data we’ve seen since last Friday. For the S&P 500, the technical line in the sand is 2,816, while 10 year yields are desperately clinging to 2.61% support that has held for the past few months. Seasonal Strength Could Extend Utility Rally In the weekly bar chart of the Utility Sector Index (UTY) above, seasonal strength (lower pane, shaded in yellow) typically begins following an early or mid-March bottom and usually lasts through early October although the bulk of the move is typically done sometime in May or early June (blue arrow). Last year Utilities had a solid year, right up until mid- December. At that point broad market weakness finally dragged the sector lower. However unlike other sectors and indexes that violated key support levels in December, Utilities did not take out long-term support. The sector has since recovered and broken out to new highs. Declining interest rates and slowing growth concerns are likely fueling the strength the sector is currently enjoying and seasonal strength could soon add to the rally. Head and Shoulders Above Average Pre-Election Year Gains Even after a few tepid trading sessions, DJIA is still up 10.6% year-to-date as of today’s close. S&P 500 is up 11.3% and NASDAQ is at 14.2%. Compared to average pre-election year historical performance since 1950 graphed in the charts below, DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ are all up above average for this point of the year. Pre-election years have historically produced the best average performance out of the four-year cycle. Other than some mild weakness in May, July and October the trend in past pre-election years has generally been higher and higher. The Nasdaq’s 10 Weeks of Green Posted by lplresearch U.S. stocks’ recent momentum has been historically impressive by many measures, and the Nasdaq Composite Index notched another milestone last week. The Nasdaq has risen for the past 10 weeks, its longest winning streak in 19 years. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the feat could signal more gains for U.S. stocks: In seven of the last eight 10-week winning streaks, both the Nasdaq and the broader market have climbed over the following 12 months. Technology stocks have rallied 23% since bottoming on December 24, 2018. While equities began the year extremely oversold, solid corporate earnings, a Federal Reserve pause, and progress on trade have helped fuel risk-on sentiment and boost prices. “We expect stocks to power through periodic bouts of uncertainty,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “While the road to new market highs could get bumpy, we encourage investors to focus on the fundamentals supporting economic growth and corporate profitability in 2019.” The one outlier in Nasdaq’s history of 10-week streaks is the one ending in December 1999, three months before the peak of the “tech bubble.” From the beginning of 1999 to March 2000, the Nasdaq more than doubled to reach record highs, then fell more than 70% through the end of 2002. In contrast to that period, we don’t see material signs of excesses in financial markets, and the recent rally has been more broad-based and backed by strong earnings growth. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average have both climbed 16% over the past 10 weeks, pacing with the Nasdaq’s 20% gain. Slow, But Steady Posted by lplresearch Slow but steady growth may win the race again as the economic expansion nears the 10-year mark. While muted growth in the current economic expansion has been frustrating at times, especially after a swift and painful downturn amid the 2008 financial crisis, it has helped extend the life of this cycle and keep excesses in check. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) has increased an average of 2.3% annually in this cycle, the slowest pace of growth among all expansions since 1970 and a key contributor to this cycle’s near-record age. Historically, cycles with annual GDP growth higher than 4% lasted about five years on average, while cycles with annual growth lower than 4% lasted about nine years on average. “While it’s important to be mindful of where we are in the economic cycle, later-cycle economies can continue to exhibit stable growth for years,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “We’re maintaining our positive outlook for 2019, thanks to our conviction in sound fundamentals supporting moderate economic growth.” Steady economic growth has been helped in part by a careful and gradual approach to monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy efforts have been implemented for several years, but policymakers only started increasing rates in December 2015, more than six years into the expansion. This tightening cycle has persisted for three years now, yet inflation-adjusted interest rates are barely above zero. Still, inflation has hovered around the Fed’s 2% target for several months now, and wage growth is healthy, but manageable. Leading market and economic indicators (including ones we track in our Recession Watch Dashboard) also hint to more runway in the expansion.
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.8.19- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/11) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (3/11-3/15) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! Stockaholics Weekly T/A Charting Challenge (3/11-3/15) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Stock Market Analysis Video for March 8th, 2019 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon (VIDEO NOT YET UP!) ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.10.19 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead. ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 3.11.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 3.11.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.12.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.12.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.13.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.13.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.14.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.14.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.15.19 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.15.19 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($HEAR $MOMO $ADBE $SFIX $AVGO $CLDR $DKS $ITRN $DG $MDB $UXIN $ULTA $NOG $COUP $DOCU $VSTM $CRBP $TEUM $ORCL $VKTX $ATNX $CNTY $PETQ $ADT $SENS $TRVN $DFRG $IIPR $PDD $CDMO $EXPR $CARA $ZUMZ $PVTL $CNNE $CRMD $KEYW $BDSI $ACHV) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 11th, 2019 <-- click there to view!
Another Boeing 737 MAX-8 crashed just after takeoff. First was Lion Air 5 months ago, today is one in Ethiopia. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47513508 https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1104676048317362177
It Begins: China Orders Carriers To Ground Boeing 737s After Ethiopian Airlines Crash https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...nd-boeing-737s-after-ethiopian-airlines-crash
Good Monday morning to all. Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
Morning Lineup – Boeing Bites Both Ways Mar 11, 2019 As great as things were for the DJIA when Boeing (BA), with its high price and weighting in the index, was on the way up, today the DJIA is feeling the pain of what happens when a high priced (weighted) stock in the index declines. With shares of Boeing set to open down over 10% this morning, its decline is set to have a negative impact of around 250 points (or 1%) at the open. Outside of BA, US equities are generally indicated higher following the lead of both positive starts to the week in Asia and Europe. As mentioned in today’s Morning Lineup, both China and European equities bounced this morning right at short term support from a brief late February consolidation. The S&P 500, meanwhile, finished off last week below its 200-DMA for the second straight day. While in a bit of a tougher hole than its international counterparts, the S&P 500 is also right at a potential support area from a period of consolidation in early February. Friday’s rebound off the early lows was a positive sign, and if equities can follow through today, it might just be enough to finally break out of the congestion area around the 2,800 level.
Not surprised the Transports are bouncing today (+1.25% currently), was technically oversold. Also happened at the 50 ma...but still below the 200 ma. All this in spite of the bad airplane news. Seems like you can get these big moves in the indexes when the VIX is over 15...but now it's down to 14.7. Let's see how things shake out in the next few days. Looks like there's a little more room to the upside.
Semiconductors with a nice day, +2% to hold above the 200 ma. Was looking at ON this weekend, had almost 2x normal volume on Friday. But it only has a 4.5% growth rate (seems wrong), and SMH has a resistance I want to see it deal with first.
Just like that and we are less than 1% away from the 2800 level again. Let’s see if the SPX will test 2800 again this week
