Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 12th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday Earnings: Oracle, Canadian Solar, Cheetah Mobile 11:30 a.m. $28 billion 3-year note auction 1:00 p.m. $21 billion 10-year note auction 2:00 p.m. Federal budget Tuesday Earnings: FedEx, Steelcase, Duluth 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 8:30 a.m. CPI 1:00 p.m. $13 billion 30-year auction Wednesday Earnings: General Mills, Winnebago, Tencent, Eldorado Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, Five Below, Herman Miller 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. PPI 10:00 a.m. Business inventories Thursday Earnings: Accenture, ConAgra, Darden Restaurants, Nike, Michael Cos, Micron 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. Import prices 8:30 a.m. Empire State manufacturing 8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing 10:00 a.m. Homebuilders survey 4:00 p.m. Treasury capital flows Friday 8:30 a.m. Housing starts 8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. JOLTS
Stock Bulls Rejoice At Weak Wages, Cohn Exit, & Global Trade War Spot the odd one out: Dow +700pts, USD Index unchanged, 30Y Yield unchanged, Gold unchanged. Here's one way to look at this week... or another... No matter which you prefer, the stock market overwhelmingly endorsed a lack of wage growth, the start of a global trade war, and the exit of the last globalist from The White House... From last Friday's open, it's been one way... Who could have seen that coming? Fresh record highs for the Nasdaq. As Bloomberg points out though, don't be fooled by Saturday newspaper headlines which scream: "Booming Job Growth Sends Nasdaq to Record High." Back in the financial pages there will also be a story worrying about the narrowness of the rally. An equal-weighted version of the Nasdaq 100 is not making a record high today, which only widens the gap with the modified cap-weighted index since Donald Trump's election. Just five stocks account for half of the 7.4% rally from the February 8 low to today's all-time high in the Nasdaq 100. The five - in order of point contributions: Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Intel. Another way to look at it, 25% of companies in the index fell since the trough. Investors rushed into safe-haven FANG Stocks (up 6.9% on the week)... This chart from BofAML might suggest why - 2018 has started with the fastest inflows into tech stocks since the crisis... It seems bank stocks don't care about rates not moving or about Gary Cohn leaving The White House!! The Dow closed at its Fib 61.8% retrace of the Feb-Flop... NOTE how The Dow is finding serious support/resistance at these key levels... Today did not appear to be a short-squeeze as "Most Shorted" stocks flatlined as indices ripped higher... VIX flash-crashed to a 13 handle intraday, perfectly tagging the 100DMA at 13.31, before bouncing back but still closing notably lower on the week... Bloomberg notes that it appears an options trader dubbed the "Elephant" is responsible for the flash-crash as he returned to close out a portion of a March three-way trade. About 121.6k March $25 calls were bought for 25 cents, potentially closing a portion of a trade from Feb. 2 when ~526k were sold for 62 cents. Separately, 60k May $60 calls appear to have been bought for 15 cents vs open interest of ~6.1k. Treasury yields ended marginally higher on the week with the long-end outperforming...very narrow range for the week. This is the 11th day in a row that the 10Y yield has closed with a 2.8x% handle. Despite all the exuberance in stocks this week, the dollar index ended unchanged... While the dollar was unchanged, cryptocurrencies collapsed on the week with Bitcoin down 20% - one of its worst weeks in years... Bitcoin ended back below $9k... but NOTE the heavy-volume dumps at the European close each of the last three days... Gold ended the week unchanged, crude was lagging into this morning but ripped higher to close green... NOTE - WTI's big moves were all around the 11ET time (EU close) Bonus Chart: No one should be surprised by today's disappointing-wage-growth-driven rally - it is the norm!! Bad news is good news again... oh and Goldilocks is alive again.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
S&P 500 mild three-day losing streak fades away Last week the S&P 500 declined 1% or more three days in a row, Tuesday through Thursday. Historically, a negative streak such as this is not all that common. Including last week, it has happened to S&P 500 51 times since 1950. Last week’s losing streak was relatively mild compared to past streaks. First it lasted just three days and the combined losses for the three days were just 3.67%. The longest losing streak of consecutive daily 1% or worse declines was seven trading days in October 2008. S&P 500 shed 22.55% across the seven days. The worst streak by performance was four days in October 1987 (S&P 500 down 28.51%). In the chart above, the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after the last 50 losing streaks are plotted. Double-digit losses, 1987, 1998, 2002, and 2015, weight on overall average performance. Sixty trading days after the streak ended, S&P 500 had recovered nearly all of its losses incurred during the streak. In the table below, S&P 500 performance 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-months after the streak ended appears. Performance 1-month after is positive, but not overwhelmingly so. At 3-months after and beyond, S&P 500 average gain and percentage of time higher improved noticeably. This Time Is Different, Manufacturing Payrolls Edition Mar 9, 2018 The monthly Employment Situation Report will always be one of our favorite releases not just because it’s so economically relevant, but because of how many interesting details there are in the data. This month, the BLS reported a very strong 31,000 net new jobs created in the manufacturing sector, with upward revisions bringing January’s total to 25,000. Over the last three months, 96,000 manufacturing jobs have been added, a far cry from the sector’s small job losses in 2016. The current ramp up in manufacturing jobs suggests that something is very different about this economic cycle. Below we show the cumulative change in manufacturing jobs over the course of each economic expansion and contraction since the 1948 recession. Prior to the 1980s, there was a familiar pattern of huge additions to manufacturing payrolls in expansions, with big job losses in recessions. At the end of the 1970s, total payroll employment peaked out at 19.55mm. But cycles since have been different. While the mid-1990s expansion saw reasonably robust payrolls additions to US manufacturing, they were relatively small versus prior expansions. Then, in the 1990s cycle, cumulative manufacturing payrolls declined over the course of the full expansion, a result without precedent post-WW2. That was just a prelude, though. Over the full course of the 2000s expansion (6 years, from November 2001 to November 2007), manufacturing payrolls fell by more than 13% or more than 2 million jobs. That was in spite of robust expansions in aggregate employment, GDP, and stronger inflation. In fact more manufacturing jobs were lost in the 2000s expansion than any post-WW2 recession including 2007-2009! So why is this expansion different? Almost one million net new manufacturing jobs have been created, with a bit more than a quarter of those coming in the last 12 months. Manufacturing payrolls’ secular decline from 1990-2010 now appears to be over. To see this, in the chart below we show the cumulative change in manufacturing payrolls in recessions (dark blue lines) and expansions (light blue lines). While total manufacturing payrolls are still a shadow of their 1970s self (35% below the record level from 1979), their solid gains this expansion is a big change from the last few cycles. The irony, of course, is that return to normal cyclical behavior comes just as US policymakers have shifted towards a policy that was more applicable in the last few cycles but no longer looks as necessary. We should note, of course, that US manufacturing output using monthly Fed data on real output is only 2.5% below 2008 record highs. In other words, while manufacturing payrolls went into secular decline, manufacturing output never did, as factories became much more productive. Sector Internals + Best Performing Russell 3,000 and S&P 500 Stocks YTD (2018) Mar 7, 2018 So far this year, the S&P 500 is up 2%, while the average stock in the Russell 3,000 (an index that contains large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks) is up 0.9%. These performance numbers highlight how the largest stocks in the market have boosted the performance of major indices. There are some big discrepancies when you look at cap-weighted S&P 500 sector performance versus the performance of the average stock in each Russell 3,000 sector. One of the biggest standouts is the Consumer Discretionary sector. As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector is up 6.3% year-to-date. That’s the second-best performing sector in the market. In the Russell 3,000 Consumer Discretionary sector, though, the average stock is actually down 0.1% year-to-date. The significant underperformance on an equal-weight basis suggests that Consumer Discretionary is much weaker than it appears underneath the surface. The two main stocks causing this discrepancy are Netflix (NFLX) and Amazon (AMZN). Given their massive market caps, their movements have a huge impact on the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector. With NFLX up 69% YTD and AMZN up 31%, these two stocks account for nearly all of the cap-weighted sector’s YTD gains. The opposite trend is in place for the Health Care sector. Here we’ve seen the largest Health Care stocks lag the smaller ones year-to-date. The S&P 500 Health Care sector is up 1.8% in 2018, while the average Health Care stock in the Russell 3,000 is up 7.4%. This suggests that the Health Care sector has actually been performing better than it appears. The same is true for Consumer Staples based on the data points in the chart. For Technology, we’ve seen strength across all market cap levels. The S&P 500 Technology sector (cap-weighted) is up 7.9% year-to-date — the best of any sector. The average Technology stock in the Russell 3,000 is also up 7.9% — the best of any sector. You won’t find any weakness underneath the surface for Tech at this point. Below is a list of the best performing Russell 3,000 stocks year-to-date. As mentioned above, Health Care looks stronger underneath the surface due to big gains on an equal-weight basis. You can see what we mean by looking at the list of best performers. They’re nearly all biotech names! Of the 30 best performing Russell 3,000 stocks year-to-date, 21 are Health Care sector stocks. Four Russell 3,000 stocks are up more than 100% in 2018 already, and they’re all biotech names — CASC, ATRA, IOVA, and FATE. The top performing non-Health Care stocks are Fossil Group (FOSL), Virtu Financial (VIRT), and Eastmak Kodak (KODK). We doubt many investors would have guessed FOSL and KODK to be top performers at the start of the year. Below is a list of the top performing S&P 500 stocks year-to-date. Netflix (NFLX) is up the most at +69%, followed by XL Group (XL), CSRA, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and Amazon.com (AMZN). Other notable winners include NVIDIA (NVDA), Kohl’s (KSS), Under Armour (UAA), salesforce.com (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), and Macy’s (M). Best and Worst Performing S&P 1500 Stocks Of the Bull Market Mar 9, 2018 In commemoration of the bull market’s 9th anniversary, we wanted to take a brief moment to highlight some of the equity market’s biggest winners and losers over the last nine years. We’ll start with the losers. Within the current universe of S&P 1500 stocks, a total of 60 names have share prices that are lower now than they were on the day the market bottomed. That’s a pretty amazing forgettable accomplishment when you think about it, and suggests that these companies whether through their own or the fault of a larger macro trend, have had some major issues to contend with. The table below lists the 21 current members of the S&P 1500 that have seen their share prices decline 50% or more during the bull market. Most of these names are either small or mid-cap names that you may have never heard of, but a lot of companies formerly considered high-quality, like JC Penney (JCP) and Barnes and Noble (BKS), are also listed. The only two stocks listed that are in the S&P 500 are Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Range Resources (RRC). Now to the winners. Since the bull market began, 206 current members of the S&P 1500 have been ten-baggers, meaning that investors who held them the entire time have made over ten times their money. Below we list the 25 best-performing stocks of the group. All 25 of the names listed have gained more than 3,000% (thirty times your money), and 12 are up by over 5,000%. The biggest winner, though, has been Patrick Industries (PATK). On March 9, 2009, PATK closed at 16 cents. Nine years later, its share price is $64.70 for a gain of 41,480.98%!!! Most people have never heard of PATK, but looking at the list there are a number of well-known S&P 500 companies listed as well. As shown, GGP, United Rentals (URI), and Netflix (NFLX) are all 50-baggers. With gains like the one listed below, there’s a reason why they often say that the biggest fortunes are made during bear markets. Do Tariffs Really Help Small Caps? Posted by lplresearch Throughout most of January and February, small caps lagged their large cap counterparts. However, things took quite the turn on March 1, 2018 after President Trump kicked the month off stating that his administration would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The announcement led to the Russell 2000 Index (a small cap index) seeing its best five-day rally relative to the S&P 500 Index since right after the U.S. election in November 2016. To put things in perspective, between March 1 and March 7, the Russell 2000 gained 3.6%, while the S&P 500 added 0.5%. That marks the best outperformance over a five-day [trading] period for small caps since November 10–17, 2016. Besides investors’ concerns surrounding the prospect of seeing the worst trade war since the Great Depression, the head of the National Economic Council stepped down during those five days as well. Once again proving why strong fundamentals can trump many worries. But, why did small caps just soar? Well, small cap companies are more domestically focused by virtue of their size and don’t generate nearly as much revenue from overseas operations as larger companies do. In other words, should there be a tit-for-tat, back and forth with tariffs, small caps could be one of the winners, as they are insulated from this. “Coming into 2018 we really liked small caps. They tend to do better when the economy is strong and corporate tax reform was a major tailwind for the group as well. However, they lagged earlier in the year but finally started to move on news of the impending tariffs. We think the group still has the potential to do well and may be a place for suitable investors to find some alpha in 2018,” explained Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist. Lastly, from a technical perspective, the Russell 2000 recently pulled back to support levels from this upward sloping trendline, before bouncing (see the chart below). Overall, this is a very nice technical picture and one may suggest the bull market in small caps isn’t over just yet. Where Does This Bull Market Rank? Posted by lplresearch We shared the following chart in our latest Weekly Market Commentary, “The Bull Is 9, Can It Make 10?”, which shows that this is the second largest and second longest bull market ever—with only the ‘90s bull standing in the way of the record books. To break things down a bit more, here are all of the bull markets since World War II: “We think the bull market can break the all-time record for the longest ever. With strong corporate profits, decade highs in manufacturing and services, and 40-year-plus lows in initial unemployment claims, we simply aren’t seeing recessionary indicators to suggest that the bull is coming to its end,” suggested Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist.
Stock Market Analysis Video for March 9th 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.11.18 Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.9.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 3.12.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 3.12.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.13.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.13.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.14.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.14.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.15.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.15.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.16.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.16.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES!
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/12) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (3/12-3/16) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well! Weekly Mystery Chart & Technical Analysis Challenge (3/12-3/16) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead: ($OSTK $AVGO $DDD $QD $ULTA $DKS $NVAX $SIG $DG $REV $CTRP $DSW $EGLT $TIF $CARA $VRAY $ADDYY $ACRS $KRO $HDS $ARLZ $AGEN $WSC $HTHT $EXPR $PETX $GLMD $BITA $NERV $JILL $SFIX $COUP $CLNE $TACO $EPZM $GERN $TNP $TLYS $HIBB $AXAS) If you guys want the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 12th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
good morning! hope everyone had a splendid weekend and are ready for a new week, fresh start. have a great trading week ahead to all!
OCLR up 22% premarket, they are being bought out by an optics tech firm called lumentum. cant believe a buyout actually happened, i remember playing oclr a bit last year and that was always the talk of the town, them being a possible buyout target lol.
nazzy basically pegged at ATHs once again today. here is the market map heading into the afternoon session: here are the most active trending discussions at this hour:
amd was just down 1.5%, then it reversed, went green and up 1.2%, then in 10 seconds went back red and now down 1.5% ....what was that? lol
Tech underperforming today A much needed pullback for the sector though since it has gone up pretty much non stop since the February lows
