IL has shut down all restaurants and bars starting today. Schools also closed for at least 2 weeks. I've seen many other states/cities doing the same thing. These are all off memory: IL - Schools, Bars, Restaurants OH - Schools, Bars, Restaurants CA - Bars, Night clubs NY - Schools til 4/20 NJ - Citywide curfews Those are just some that I remember off the top of my head. There are plenty more.
THIS: Last time, we had a democrat in the white house, so it was okay not to panic. I seriously think the DNC is trying to get Trump re-elected. I mean, look at the candidates they put forward: Mr. Free Shit Bernie and Mr. I can't remember Shit Biden From the party who hates rich old white men. Trump doesn't even have to try to get re-elected at this point.
I think there are three notable differences between Swine (H1N1) and COVID-19: 1) Vaccination development. For starters, already-available anti-virals worked for swine flu recovery and ICU beds were not needed, which saved a lot of lives. Moreover, total time from vaccine research (June 2009) to deployment of a vaccine (Dec 2009) took only 5 months. The best estimates for a vaccine for COVID-19 is about 18 months, which puts it in October of 2021. And current anti-virals do not assist in COVID-19 mitigation or recovery for infected people. 2) Virulence. H1N1 infected about 24% of the global population. Estimates on the basis of limited global testing and speed of transmission globally put COVID-19 on a track of 50 to 70% of global population. We'll know more in a couple years how many were ultimately infected. 3) Death rates. In part due to treatments available and the lower virulence, H1N1 ended up with a global death rate of something on the order of .02%, with 12,469 USA deaths. Death rates for COVID-19 currently stands at 3.4%, but of course that is with very limited knowledge of the overall infection rate. On the basis of available data and disease spread modelling, various actual death rates range from .04% to about 2.0%, and that's WITH the closures and social-distancing being recommended and/or implemented worldwide. I guess everybody's *individual* perspective of what is a reasonable societal response depends on numerous factors important to themselves. However, health professionals (and not the media or induced population panic) have decided the three points above are worth the short term sacrifice to save lives. They're in a tough spot, because if it works, there will be plenty of folks who will bitch and moan that these shelter-in-place/social isolation measures were never needed. And if it doesn't work and there are a massive number of deaths, one wonders if those suggesting this is overblown will offer their mea culpas. Truly a Catch-22 for public health professionals and those government leaders willing to take guidance from them. [Data from: https://www.healthline.com/health-n...rus-compared-to-past-outbreaks#1918-influenza; http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51; https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5781221/]
Excellent post. The social distancing is important now to "flatten the curve". The fear is basically overwhelming our medical system. Self quarantining is there to help slow down the process of everyone getting sick, not prevent it altogether. If everyone kept up with business as usual, the healthcare system would be completely overwhelmed and unable to treat everyone. My ER nurse wife at first thought it was all over reaction, but as it's grown, basically over the last week or so she's changed her mind and is now in support of social distancing and avoiding crowds whenever possible.
fwiw, that's called the "level 3" circuit breaker...and it will just halt trading for the rest of the day. unless god forbid there is a much larger and serious black swan event (cue 9/11), that would close the market for more than a day. the COVID-19 pandemic itself won't do that, but it could possibly get bad enough that the NYSE (or at least the floor) could get shuttered. but would still be open via electronic trading i believe i heard. in other words -- markets will still be open, but if a level 3 (-20% in a day) is hit then trading halts for the day.
gonna be keeping my eye on the european bourses as it seems like we've been closely following their market (especially when we close). i noticed especially last week that we were almost in lockstep with the FTSE in particular. looks like we'll test the thursday night /ES overnight low at 2380, then possibly challenge the 2018 xmas massacre lows. should be an interesting day today.
I had h1N1. It was no fun but I survived after tamiflu. Imo this covid19 would be way worse to contract especially since it is worse respiratory wise and no vaccine. I got in some Bear 3x’s Friday finally so im hedged from something finally. Traded a few others early March but didn’t stay in unfortunately.
@Steven_Burt: i see you lurkin' mang! curious to hear your thoughts on today's action. missed hearing your market inputs in here!
Hard really to compare anything to 9/11, so no disrespect there. However, the oil price collapse last week is a pretty effin huge black swan. It has as much (if not more, really) to do with the liquidity crisis roiling the credit markets than COVID-19 does. If VIX doesn't come down significantly and fast, we probably ought not be surprised if some ETFs like LQD and TLT do some unprecedented things. For example, the NAV on LQD generally trades at parity with it's underlying. Last week, it dropped to a (negative) -5.0 NAV. That should be a HUGE wakeup call for anybody who thinks indexed ETFs will safely track whatever it is they are indexed to. The bottom line is that the liquidity just isn't there in a crashing market to balance these funds out.
just my worthless 2c here, but i feel if crude gives up that $27 handle print, this could get really disorderly and fast
I think you nailed it @bigbear0083 . It's that "other" Black Swan nobody is really talking about. Without COVID-19, the past week's oil price collapse would have dominated headlines, and cratering equity prices and emergency FED actions would have still occurred.
reckon it'll happen again. hoping it'll hit close to 20% today, steering it close to dec 2018 levels. Want to get some trades in today
