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Stock Market Today: March 18th - 22nd, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 18th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]


    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]


    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    8:30 a.m. Business Leaders survey

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    • Tuesday

    FOMC begins 2-day meeting

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    • Wednesday

    2:00 p.m. Fed statement

    2:30 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell briefing

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

    8:30 a.m. Q4 current account

    10:00 a.m. QSS

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    • Friday

    9:30 a.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Bond Yields Plunge To 2019 Lows As Quad-Witch Crushes VIX
    10Y Treasury yields lowest close since Jan 2018 and stocks ever-bid...

    [​IMG]

    ...despite sliding EPS expectations and macro data...



    [​IMG]

    Makes us think...







    Chinese markets closed green once again as two Friday pumps rescued them from the red - a terrifying thought after last week's loss...

    [​IMG]



    One-way street higher in European stocks this week...



    [​IMG]



    This was the Nasdaq Composite's best week since November, but the late-day weakness (as quad-witch bias fades) took the shine off of things...

    [​IMG]

    NOTE: the opening panic-buying almost every day this week.



    The S&P closed above 2800 and above the quad top highs...

    [​IMG]



    The week's biggest gains were thanks to a huuge short-squeeze but the last two days suggest they have run out of ammo once again...

    [​IMG]



    FANG Stocks had their best week in 2 months but began to lose momo into the end of the week...

    [​IMG]



    VIX collapsed to a 12 handle today and credit spreads continued to compress...

    [​IMG]



    Treasury yields fell across the curve on the week but 30Y underperformed, scarping along at unchanged...

    [​IMG]



    10Y Yields saw the lowest weekly close since Jan 2018...

    [​IMG]



    The short-end of the yield curve has now been inverted all year, reaching its record inversion this week...

    [​IMG]

    with 2s and 5s now below the effective funds rate...

    [​IMG]



    Market expectations are now for a 16bps rate CUT in 2019, the most dovish since the early Jan crash...

    [​IMG]



    This week was the dollar's worst week of the year (since early December)

    [​IMG]



    Cable soared this week as hopes that a no-deal brexit was the off the table buoyed sentiment... This is the second best week for sterling since Sept 2017...

    [​IMG]



    EMs rallied most this week...

    [​IMG]



    ...with ARS having its best week in over 4 months...

    [​IMG]



    Despite the dollar dump, only WTI managed solid gains as Copper (China) and PMs basically brokeven...

    [​IMG]



    WTI surged above $58...

    [​IMG]



    Gold managed to hold above $1300, but rejected the 50DMA...

    [​IMG]



    And finally, pigs got slaughtered this week but Lean Hog futures enjoyed their greatest weekly gain on record...

    [​IMG]

    Bloomberg explains that a nasty haemorrhagic virus in pigs might be throwing a lifeline to meat producers who have been badly hurt by the U.S.-China trade spat. As the highly-contagious African swine fever devastates Asian herds, Chinese hog inventories are tumbling, and buyers are turning to the U.S.

    But all eyes will be on next week as the Quad Witch drift disappears...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Irish Eyes Shine on Market Last 25 Years, but Monday After Sunday St. Patrick’s Day Weaker
    [​IMG]
    Saint Patrick’s Day is the only cultural event that perennially lands in March. Over the years gains the day before Saint Patrick’s Day have proved to be slightly better than the day itself and the day after. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of the patron saint’s holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Perhaps it’s the all the green folks don that stirs up thoughts of money and market gains. More likely, it’s the fact that Saint Pat’s typically falls in historically bullish Triple-Witching Week.
    [​IMG]
    Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.19% on Saint Patrick’s Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.13% the day after and the day before averages a 0.24% advance. S&P 500 median values are 0.17% on the day before, 0.20% on Saint Patrick’s Day and 0.07% on the day after.

    In the nine years when St. Patrick’s Day falls on a Sunday like this year, since 1950, Friday advanced an average 0.15% and the following Monday suffered an average loss of -0.08%. However, over the last 25 years market performance on Saint Patrick’s Day and the day after has improved, up 72% of the time on the Holiday with an average gain of 0.57%.

    The Bespoke Report – Break Out the Monocle
    Mar 15, 2019

    Below is an updated look at our ETF Asset Class Performance Matrix, which shows the total returns of key ETFs across assets classes on both a YTD, MTD basis as well as over the last week. How strong were global equity markets this week? Well of all the equity-related ETFs in the matrix, not a single one finished the week in the red. Even Industrials (XLI), which were dragged down by Boeing (BA), managed to eke out a gain of 0.2%. Among US indices, the Nasdaq 100 blew away the field rallying over 4%, but every other US index ETF was up over 1.4%. International markets were even stronger with India (PIN), Brazil (EWZ), and China (ASHR) all rallying more than 4%. Rounding out the four names from BRIC, Russia (RSX) even rallied 3.5%. In terms of YTD leaders, China and Crude oil are neck and neck for the top spot with gains of 25%+.

    [​IMG]

    The Most Loved Stocks in the S&P 500
    Mar 15, 2019

    Earlier this week we provided a full update on analyst sentiment across sectors and individual stocks in our Closer report. Below are a few charts and tables that we’ve pulled from the big report in case you’re interested.

    As shown below, there are 22 analyst ratings per stock in the S&P 500 on average. But Energy and Communication Services have more than 29 ratings per stock! It’s hard to find an edge with nearly 30 analysts covering a name.

    [​IMG]

    Notably, the Energy sector also has the highest percentage of analyst Buy ratings, which is surprising given that Energy has been the weakest sector of the market since the S&P peaked last September. It looks like analysts think the sell-off for Energy has caused valuations to become more attractive.

    [​IMG]

    Below is a table listing the S&P 500 stocks with the highest percentage of Buy ratings right now. There are 3 stocks in the index that have 100% Buy ratings — Marathon Petroleum (MPC), ABIOMED (ABMD), and Keysight Tech (KEYS). Both MPC and ABMD are basically flat this year, but KEYS is up 39% YTD. Even after the gains, though, analysts still love KEYS.

    Other notables on the list of most loved stocks include mega-caps like Amazon.com (AMZN) with 93.9% Buy ratings, Alphabet (GOOGL) with 93.2% Buy ratings, and Microsoft (MSFT) with 91.9% Buy ratings. Diamondback Energy (FANG) is the most loved Energy sector stock, while AMETEK (AME) is the most loved Industrials stock.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Sector Trailing 12-Month P/E Ratios
    Mar 15, 2019

    The S&P 500’s trailing 12-month P/E ratio got down into the low 15s at the bottom in late December, but we’ve seen huge P/E expansion as the market has rallied back. As of this afternoon, the S&P’s trailing 12-month P/E sits at 18.61. Even still, that’s well below readings in the 20s that were seen for a number of weeks in 2018.

    [​IMG]

    Below we show one-year P/E ratio charts for major S&P 500 sectors. Since the December lows, we’ve seen P/E expansion in every sector, but the one that stands out the most is Utilities.

    We went into detail on extended valuations for the Utilities sector in yesterday’s Chart of the Day for members, but you can see the spike up to 19.80 in the one-year chart for Utilities below. At 19.80, only Technology, Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary have higher trailing 12-month P/E ratios than Utilities right now.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    What Type of Pullback Could We See?
    Posted by lplresearch

    The S&P 500 Index corrected nearly 20% from the September peak until December 24 before staging a furious rally of 19%. What could happen next? A well-deserved pullback would be perfectly normal, and in fact, is probably needed before another surge higher can occur. Now the $64,000 question: Would a pullback be a retest of the December lows, a 10% correction, or something more modest?

    As we discussed in our recent Weekly Market Commentary: Modest Pullback Or Something Bigger? we think a pullback in the range of 3–5% is the most likely scenario. “We continue to see solid fundamentals, valuations that are quite reasonable, the strong possibility of a U.S.-China trade deal over the coming months, and healthy market technicals,” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. In fact, six technical indicators we mentioned in the recent commentary suggest a pullback could offer buying opportunities for suitable investors:
    • The S&P 500 is above its upward sloping 50-day moving average (MA), suggesting an improving trend, and at support in the form of its 200-day moving average.
    • March has been the second strongest month for the stock market over the past 20 years.
    • Stocks tend to go up in the final 10 months of a year (25 out of the last 27 years) after experiencing gains during January and February.
    • Market breadth is favorable, with a high proportion of stocks participating in this year’s advance.
    • Investor flows have been negative in 2019—evidence of caution, not euphoria
    • Investor sentiment surveys suggest bulls are not in overabundance.
    Last, as our LPL Chart of the Day shows, it’s important to remember that the S&P 500 has been higher a year after every midterm election since World War II—that’s 18 out of the past 18 midterms—with an average return of 14.2%. President Trump views the stock market as part of his re-election path, suggesting this pattern could hold once again. With the S&P 500 up only 1.3% since the midterm election last November, there indeed could still be room for stocks to run in 2019.

    [​IMG]

    Waking Up the Yield Curve
    Posted by lplresearch

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) heard the market’s alarm and shifted its stance, but the U.S. yield curve hasn’t woken up yet.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has hovered around 15 to 20 basis points (bps) (.15–.20%) over the past few months, the lowest level since 2007.

    [​IMG]

    Tightening Fed policy and muted growth and inflation expectations have driven yield curve flattening amid rising interest rates the past few years, a shift known as a “bear flattener” that isn’t necessarily ominous for U.S. economic potential. However, stagnant longer-term yields at the end of last year increased speculation that the Fed’s gradual rate tightening plans could derail the expansion. After all, an inverted yield curve (or long-term rates falling below short-term rates) has preceded each of the nine recessions going back to 1955.

    Now, the Fed has promised patience in deciding on future hikes, but the yield curve remains historically flat. Short-term rates have settled into a range that aligns with a Fed pause: The 2-year yield has closed within 10 bps (.10%) of the upper-bound fed funds rate for 31 straight days, the longest streak since 2013. However, 10-year yields have fallen into their smallest year-to-date range since 1974, even as market expectations and data point to rising inflation.

    “We see the stall in long-term rates as a clash between steady economic growth and rising inflation expectations on one hand, and higher global demand amid lower yields in other major regions on the other,” said LPL Research Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “However, we think sound economic fundamentals will eventually prevail over global uncertainty.”

    We expect the 10-year yield to end 2019 in a range of 3–3.25% as growth stabilizes and inflationary pressures continue to rise. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the 2-year yield climb slightly if stronger growth forces the Fed to implement one hike in the second half of the year. Based on our forecast, we’d expect to see 25–50 bps (.25–.50%) in steepening through the end of the year.

    Even if the yield curve inverts, an economic recession isn’t necessarily imminent. Since 1970, a recession has started an average of 13 months after the 2-year yield and 10-year yield spread fell into negative territory.

    Pre-Election-Year March Historically Stronger
    [​IMG]
    As of today’s close, this pre-election year March is below average when compared to it historical performance. Strong market performance in pre-presidential-election year frequently translates into above average performance for individual months. March is a month that typically enjoys a nice boost, but so far it has not occurred. Prior to the gains of today and yesterday, this March was well off its average levels. This March and past pre-election year average performance has been plotted in the chart above and the gap in performance is readily visible.

    Strong gains in January and February had major indexes right at key resistance levels at the start of the month and when they failed to break out profit taking ensued. Slowing global growth, naming in China and the EU along with ongoing trade concerns and last Friday’s tepid jobs report have all weighed on stocks. Heavy selling of DJIA’s largest component, Boeing (BA) has kept that index in check this week. Despite sign of slowing growth, the US economy is still on relatively firm ground when compared to other regions. Further market gains are likely, but progress is probably going to be choppy.
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.15.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for March 15th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
    (VIDEO NOT YET UP!)

    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.17.19 - Back to all time highs?
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    [​IMG]
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 3.18.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 3.18.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 3.19.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 3.19.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 3.20.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 3.20.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 3.21.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 3.21.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 3.22.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 3.22.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($TLRY $MU $OSTK $NVAX $LL $FDX $NKE $HQY $PLX $DSW $UNIT $ZUO $GIS $ACRS $STNE $JKS $TIF $DRI $NVGS $CSIQ $HDS $CAG $TME $SYNH $MIK $TACO $SMAR $AMRS $TLGT $WSM $LEJU $BITA $CMC $MTBC $GEN $CELP $GPX $YIN $WKHS $HZN $GES $WPM)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning to all.

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day and week ahead.
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup – Upward Drift Continues
    Mar 18, 2019

    Not a lot in the way of macro headlines this morning, but US equity futures are modestly higher, although continued weakness in Boeing (BA) is pressuring the DJIA. Chinese equities kicked off the week with another rally of over 2%, sending the CSI 300 to its highest close of the current rally. In the ongoing China-US trade saga, a potential summit between Trump and Xi is looking like it will be pushed back to June.

    February trade data for Singapore had good news for optimists on global activity. While both leading indicators and broad gauges of global trade activity have been in pretty persistent decline of late, we note that exports for Singapore (both from its domestic economy, and via broader measures like re-exports and container volumes, both of which are highly sensitive to global trade activity) have not suffered all that much. Certainly, exports are down, and re-exports are off their peak, but container through-put for the biggest Eurasian trade hub has remained very robust, something that would be impossible if total global trade was collapsing.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    FB selling off hard :eek:
     
  17. Gregory

    Gregory New Member

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    $TNRG UP 11.11% - An Introduction to Hadronic Chemistry by Professor Ruggero M. Santilli

    In particle physics, a hadron /ˈhædrɒn/ is a composite particle made of two or more quarks held together by the strong force in a similar way as molecules are held together by the electromagnetic force. Most of the mass of ordinary matter comes from two hadrons, the proton and the neutron. Hadrons are categorized into two families: baryons, made of an odd number of quarks – usually three quarks – and mesons, made of an even number of quarks—usually one quark and one antiquark…

    Read more Here:
     
  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Financials up pretty nicely, maybe helping by the merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank
     
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  19. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I was wondering about that, since the 10-year is looking like it's going below 2.60%.
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market close to HOD here. FED announcement this Wednesday, let’s see if the FED will be as dovish as the market wants :p
     
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