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Stock Market Today: March 23rd - 27th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    A "Quiet" Day
    Mon, Mar 23, 2020

    The S&P 500 finished the day with a decline of nearly 3%, but if you ask a lot of people who pay close attention to the markets, it didn't seem that bad. If you're one of those people, you can thank the phenomenon of recency bias. That's because even though the S&P 500 had a 2.93% move today, the average daily move in the four weeks heading into today was a gain or loss of 4.65%. In fact, over the last 20 trading days, there have only been five where the S&P 500's average daily move was smaller.

    The chart below shows the S&P 500's average daily percentage move on a 20-day rolling basis going back to 1928. The S&P 500's four-week average daily move is now greater than any other time since the weeks after the 1929 crash more than 90 years ago. Moves of this magnitude are nearly unprecedented in the history of the stock market, and the one precedent we have isn't a very warm and fuzzy one. While we don't want to minimize the significance of the equity market's decline over the last month, the circumstances surrounding the two periods in terms of the reasons for the decline and the market dynamics during each period aren't all that similar to each other.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    this streak ended today at 7.

    and found my answer for the most green/red alternating days streak in a row on record.

    it is 14 days, and it actually happened 7 years ago (march/april 2013) :p
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    been largely MIA today, but just catching up to some readings today, saw this one and thought to share in here as well.

    evidently this drop from ATHs to down -30% in the SPX in just 22 trading days is a new all time record. never been done before. same with the DJ30, and that one is even more impressive as its been around for 125 years :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    stumbled across this one too and thought was also worth a quick share here.

    here's a chart of the history of all bear markets since the very beginning for the SPX, with the dates of the bull peak and bear bottom, length of the bear in months, and the % return during the bear.

    we're still nowhere near the dot com and GFC bears yet as those were -50% from peak to trough.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Totally missed the markets today but man that TVIX getting HOSED!
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  7. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Broad based heavy buying in all markets today. Do we have a bottom?
     
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  8. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Limit up breaker lol this is so silly.
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Tuesday morning traders and welcome to a new day, fresh start!

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone in here has a great trading day ahead today! :)
     
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  10. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Daniel Rizzo, Vdubman and bigbear0083 like this.
  11. Daniel Rizzo

    Daniel Rizzo New Member

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    My money is on that we hit bottom and things go up and down from here.
     
  12. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    LOL - no way. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg on this virus. Only way this turns around is a cure or vaccine - but that's over a year away.

    There may be a small rally, but ultimately I see SPY 160-180 at the end of this.
     
  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup - 3/24/20 - Limited Limits
    Tue, Mar 24, 2020

    Here we go again. Equity futures were trading on a limit up basis earlier but have since given up some of their gains. As things stand now, the US equity market is still poised to open up by about 4%, but where it goes from there is anyone's guess. Optimism this morning stems from hopes that both sides of the political divide are closer to a stimulus deal in Washington and that some of the hardest-hit hotspots from the coronavirus are showing varying levels of improvement.

    Light at the end of the tunnel in the coronavirus outbreak is obviously important because the sooner we see the light, the closer the US economy will be to moving out of its coma. This has been a contentious topic over the last 24 hours. On the one side, there's a growing camp voicing concerns over the economic damage of the US and global shutdown. They are calling for at least a plan to be made for when, how, and under what conditions Americans will be allowed to go back to work. On the other side, a number of people argue that it's still way too early to even start thinking about starting the economy back up as there are many more pressing concerns facing the country.

    We're not quite sure where the disagreement is here. In the words of NY Governor Cuomo, "you have to walk and chew gum in life." In other words, can't we address both the pressing Health Care needs facing the country and also start coming up with a plan for how Americans will be able to go back to work when the peak of the outbreak passes? Governments at all levels have come under enormous criticism for being caught flatfooted heading into this outbreak. Now that both Federal and state governments are thinking ahead, though, do they deserve the same criticism now? There are no easy answers in any of this, and no one is looking to get things back up and running if it is only going to make things worse, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be asking the questions and coming up with plans and strategies as new data and treatments come to light.
     
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    not to go full bear mode on you guys here, but i thought this was kind of an interesting chart that i had shared on my bear market thread earlier this morning.

    looks like we hit the upper trendline of this 100 year bull channel on the DJ30.

    i won't make any conclusions out of this chart. just something interesting i noted when looking on the super long term time frame :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. Kristi

    Kristi New Member

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    To short, or not to short?? I know we will have some up days through this mess, but unemployment #'s can't be good Thursday. I know you aren't supposed to fight the Fed, but I just don't see this as the bottom. I'd like to grab a couple SPY puts, maybe I'll just watch today and see how it goes tomorrow and go short into Thursday?
     
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  16. Daniel Rizzo

    Daniel Rizzo New Member

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    I’m still new to this, if I short what’s a good time? At the end of the day or when I think it’s the highest?
     
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  17. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    In really want to pick up some $TECS and $SPXS today but I don’t know. Too much broad buying today. Even metals and crypto.

    either people are betting on light at the tunnel or doubling down on big shorts
     
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  18. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    the market is forward looking, it will recover long before a vaccine. my bet is it will recover once weve hit peak covid-19
     
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  19. Daniel Rizzo

    Daniel Rizzo New Member

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    Yup I think people can see past the fake news and all the fear. I bet we already hit bottom
     
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