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Stock Market Today: March 23rd - 27th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Impressive indeed, I think we have pulled off 2 consecutive big fans for the first time since this bear market started :p
     
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  2. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I am up 67% for TDOC :D Those stocks that outperformed when the market crashed are underperforming now when the market is bouncing now
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    ok, here is the correct table that is using the absolute "closing" prices.

    so we are currently +18% off the bear low right now on a closing basis.

    going by my table here, we would need to see a close at 22,310.32 on the DJ30 to make it +20% on a closing basis, and this would i believe technically put us into a new bull market :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  4. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Haha did we have this kind of bounce during the financial crisis before the market crashing back down? Can’t exactly remember :p
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    that is a good good question there. i am thinking yes, def on an intraday basis, not sure if on closing though. i will check that one out for sure though cause i am really curious about this too :p
     
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  6. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Was able to sell my PSQ for a slight gain, didn’t think I would be able to do it today :p
     
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  7. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    What happened towards the bell? Looks like huge dumping
     
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  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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  9. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    You want to hear bear news, my state noted 16,000 new unemployment claims overnight.
     
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  10. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    The weekly jobless claims tomorrow morning likely will be very ugly
     
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  11. T-Coonazz

    T-Coonazz New Member

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    Good to be back my friend, I remember you, you old fart you! lol Hope all ya`ll are doing good.
     
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  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I was just thinking of this last week, and I figured for sure bigbear would know.
    Don't we need to exceed the previous bull market high for there to be a new bull market? We would retroactively say it started at the low point?

    If all we need is just a +20% move off the lows, with the way you can get fierce rallies in a bear market you'd just be bouncing back and forth between bulls and bears, I was thinking. Heck, oil would be in a bull market this week from essentially one day.
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    that's what i thought all along too, but sadly that's not actually the case. it's really just a +20% gain from the lowest close of the whole move.

    i hate that because exactly like you said, we'd just be bouncing around back and forth between bull/bear lol.

    the 20% thing is kinda dumb in of itself imo. don't know why they use 20% for bull and bear? oh well.

    i personally use the previous ATH close as the line needed to exceed to enter new bull status.

    meaning, if we get a close higher than the feb. high on a closing basis then that would officially start the new bull.

    but, apparently that is not what is widely accepted or used.

    ima do some analysis later on tonight or tomorrow to see if we actually had a +20% gain from a low on a closing basis back during the GFC.

    the GFC had some pretty epic bear rallies from what i remember.

    i'll try to get back to you on this one hang tight!
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    alright! i figured i would get around to doing this tonight rather than leaving it off for tomorrow as i might get busy or forget.

    here is what my analysis has found.

    here is a chart dating back to 2008 from just before the market collapse, to the bear bottom, and proceeding recovery.

    during the GFC bear market i found no bear rallies that actually made it up to +20% on a closing basis.

    the closes one was +19.63% from the 11/20/08 closing low to the 1/2/09 closing high.

    the next closes one was a +17.73% bear rally in oct. of '08, and before that an +11.08% earlier that month.

    it wasn't until 3/26/09 that we made it past +20% on a closing basis off of the 3/9/09 closing low and entered into an official bull status.

    btw, i am using the DJ30 in this illustration below.

    [​IMG]
     
  15. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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  16. Daniel Rizzo

    Daniel Rizzo New Member

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    I’m all over the place like the market
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Thursday morning Stocakholics and welcome to a new day, fresh start!

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone in here has a great trading day ahead today! :)
     
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  19. kyleh2k20

    kyleh2k20 New Member

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    Great stuff! Thank you for taking the time to dig into that deeper. It’s interesting to me how the 2008-09 bear market had really convincing rallies, but ultimately did not bottom out until a few months later. Seems like we could be going through that now. What do you think? Thanks again for sharing.
     
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  20. kyleh2k20

    kyleh2k20 New Member

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    Thanks for this.

    Don’t see how this doesn’t get more upvotes honestly. Best daily thread on the site imho. I look forward to this post every morning.
     
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