Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: March 2nd - 6th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Feb 28, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 2nd!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    10:00 a.m. Construction spending

    10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Target, Kohl’s, Nordstrom

    6:30 p.m. Fed president Charles Evans speaks

    Super Tuesday primaries

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Zoom Video

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment

    10:00 a.m. ISM non-manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin testifies to House Appropriations Committee on budget

    2:00 p.m. Beige book

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Kroger

    8:30 a.m. Nonfarm productivity

    8:30 a.m. Productivity & costs

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    10:00 a.m. Durable goods orders

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m . Trade balance

    8:30 a.m. February jobs report

    10:00 a.m. Wholesales inventories
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Corona-Crash Sparks Fastest 'Correction' In History On Record-Breaking Volume
    It was a historic week...


    S&P crashed from peak to correction at the fastest pace in history...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Right on time...we're gonna need more liquidity...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Some more historical context...

    [​IMG]

    The last 7 days has been carnage...

    [​IMG]

    As SunTrust’s chief market strategist Keith Lerner wrote:

    "Investors are selling stocks first and asking questions later."

    “We are seeing signs of pure liquidation. ‘Get me out at any cost’ seems to be the prevailing mood. There is little doubt the coronavirus will continue to weigh on the global economy, and the U.S. will not be immune. There is much we do not know. However, it is also premature to suggest the base case for the U.S. economy is recession.”

    But, James McCormick, global head of desk strategy at NatWest Markets noted:

    Asset prices diverged significantly from growth in the past year, in part because of central bank policy, but also because passive investment’s main signal is price action.

    The COVID-19 escalation runs a real risk of virtuous cycle turning to a vicious one. Either way, given where growth estimates are heading for the next few months, I’d expect more downside.”

    Some of the week/month/year's high- and low-lights...

    • S&P is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since Nov 2016 (worst month since Feb 2009 - equal to Dec 2018's drop, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)

    • Dow is down 7 days in a row - longest losing streak since June 2018 (worst month since Feb 2009, worst week since Lehman - Oct 2008)

    • Dow volume today hit an all-time record high.

    • MAGA stocks lost $780 Billion in market cap in the last 7 days.

    • World stocks lost $5 trillion in market cap in the last 7 days

    • VIX exploded 30 points higher in Feb - its biggest monthly spike in vols ever

    • Bank stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009 (worst month since Feb 2009)

    • Airline stocks suffered their biggest weekly drop since March 2009 (worst month since Nov 2008)

    • 2Y yields fell 39bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Nov 2008

    • 30Y yields fell 33bps in Feb - the biggest yield drop since Aug 2019

    • Treasury Vol highest since Sept 2013

    • HY Credit Spreads widened by the most since the financial crisis in Feb

    • The USDollar rose by the most since July 2019 in Feb (but the worst week since 2019)

    • Silver suffered its worst monthly drop since May 2016

    • Gold's worst day today since June 2013

    • Oil collapsed again in February for its worst start to a year since 1991
    At its low today, the Dow wiped out almost all of last year's 22% gain...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Stocks rebounded a little today on hopes of an emergency cut this weekend... but that failed... and then sheer panic-buying (PPT?) which pushed Nasdaq just into the green!!!

    [​IMG]

    Just look at the closing ramp - End of month flows? Algos gone wild...

    [​IMG]

    Notably Nasdaq bounced off its 200DMA...

    [​IMG]

    Looks like month-end rebalancing, and bonds reversed after the cash close...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Fed speakers and Jay Powell issued statements which definitely didn't suggest that a Sunday night rescue was planned (despite Kevin Warsh's urging)...

    0830ET Kaplan: "I'll be prepared to make a judgement as we go into the March meeting, I am trying to keep my attention on what's going on in the underlying economy."

    0905ET Bullard: "Further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching the scale of ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case at this time... Longer-term U.S. interest rates have been driven lower by a global flight to safety, likely benefiting the U.S. economy." Bullard added that "even with the current stock market price drop, equities have been on a long upswing."

    1030ET Bullard spoke again reaffirming that US GDP Forecasts "don't look very severe" and The Fed is "willing to react if virus has major impact but will want to wait and monitor events until the next meeting."

    1430ET Powell: "The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong. However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."

    Powell's pumping plan failed...

    [​IMG]

    CNBC's Steve Liesman also summed things up well:

    "At what level of interest rates would I be willing to go to a rock concert and risk infection?"

    Nevertheless, the market is now demanding 36bps of cuts in March (so one cut guaranteed and a 50% or so chance of 50bps), additionally market is pricing in 65bps of cuts by June.

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    China, finally, was ugly overnight, starting to catch down to EU and US stocks since Covid-19 struck...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Despite today's desperate attempt to rebound - perhaps on hopes of an emergency rate-cut by The Fed this weekend and Powell's statement - the S&P and Dow are down 7 days in a row...with 4 intraday 1,000 point drops in a row

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The S&P 500 just suffered its fastest crash from peak to correction ever... and US stocks saw their worst week since Lehman (Oct 2008), leaving everything red year-to-date...

    [​IMG]

    Stock market volume has exploded higher as the crash has accelerated - notably higher volumes than during the Dec 2018 crash...

    [​IMG]

    The Dow saw its biggest volume since April 2006...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    FANG stocks were FUBAR...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    MAGA stocks have lost $780 billion in the last week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    World Stocks lost over $5.1 trillion in market cap in the last 6 days - that is the biggest loss ever...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Airline stocks collapsed over 21% this week - their worst since March 2009...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bank stocks were a bloodbath this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The biggest 6-day collapse in bank stocks since the peak of the financial crisis...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX surged over 30 points in Feb...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX closed at its highest since Aug 2011...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Liquidity has collapsed in the VIX complex as bid-offer spreads have exploded...

    [​IMG]

    Credit markets imploded in the last week, with HY Bond OAS blowing out in Feb by the most

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields plunged in February, with the long-end crashing 33bps - the biggest drop since Aug 2019...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But while all yields were lower, the 2Y saw the biggest drop - down 39bps - the biggest monthly decline since Nov 2008

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As an aside, the Austria 100-year bond price is back to record highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    While equity vol is exploding, Bond vol is also spiking dramatically, to its highest since Sept 2013

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    10Y Real Treasury Rates crashed down to -75bps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The yield curve (3m10Y) flattened for the second month in a row, closing inverted...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The entire Treasury curve is now trading below the Fed Funds rate...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos had an ugly week (BTC -11%, ETH -15%) erasing the month's gains leaving only Ethereum positive in Feb...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Thanks to today's carnage in gold, the yellow metal actually ended the month in the red

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The week was also a bloodbath for all commodities... led by oil...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Silver was clubbed like a baby seal this week to the lowest since Aug 2019...

    [​IMG]

    Gold was also monkey-hammered today on massive volume... its worst day since June 2013

    [​IMG]

    Oil extended its losses from January for the worst start to a year since 1991...

    [​IMG]

    Lots of questions about the crash in gold today - we point to one key chart for the culprit - BoJ!!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Finally, as @QTRResearch noted:

    MON - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
    TUE
    - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
    WED
    - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
    THU
    - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG
    FRI
    - People on CNBC said buying - WRONG

    And as Jim Bianco noted, CNBC hit the panic button this week...

    [​IMG]

    Or did the market panic over Bernie?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    From "Extreme Greed" to "Extreme Fear" in 2 months...

    [​IMG]

    Source: CNN

    Still, we know who will be buying this dip... or telling you to...

    [​IMG]

    White House Economic Adivser Larry Kudlow suggested investors “buy the dip.”
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Gauging Potential Economic Impact of Covid-19

    The coronavirus outbreak—or Covid-19 —has caused significant market volatility over the past week. Our approach as always is to focus on economic fundamentals first, but the uncertainty around the scope of the outbreak has made it very difficult to assess potential impact. The situation clearly is unsettling for investors as more cases are reported across Europe and Asia, and the first case of community transmission has been reported in the United States. As this was written, the S&P 500 Index was 10% below its February 19 all-time high.

    “The Covid-19 outbreak continues to significantly disrupt economic activity in China and throughout Asia,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Given that China is such a big component of many global supply chains, we will almost certainly see weaker economic data globally over the next several months.”

    Even as the situation remains fluid and very uncertain, we want to provide some sense of the potential U.S. and global economic impact.

    China: If virus containment holds in China, which is our base case, we could see something like a 3–4 percentage point impact to Chinese economic growth in the first quarter—possibly 2–3% gross domestic product (GDP) growth rather than 5–6%—followed by a much more modest hit in the second quarter. We think we would see a return to trend growth by the third quarter of 2020. This scenario would put China’s 2020 GDP growth below the current 5.6% Bloomberg-tracked consensus, shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, and the Chinese government’s previous 6% annual target. In other words, China’s GDP growth in 2020 could end up closer to 5% than 6%.

    [​IMG]

    United States: At this point, our base case is that any economic disruption in the United States may be modest and short-lived, as we expect domestic efforts at containment to be more successful and have less economic disruption than in China. The outbreak may trim 0.25–0.5% from U.S. GDP over the next couple of months due to global supply chain disruption, falling export demand, and decreased tourism. If evidence emerges over the next month or so that the virus is being contained successfully, as we expect, the economic impact would likely be at the better end of that range (0.25%). In that scenario, damage to business and consumer confidence would be limited, setting the stage for a potential second-quarter rebound. We believe our 1.75% U.S. GDP growth forecast may still be achievable.

    [​IMG]

    Global: In the short-term, the collective hits to global GDP from China, South Korea, Japan, and Italy—the countries where the outbreak impact has been greatest to date—may comprise 0.2–0.3% of global GDP. Our latest global GDP forecast of 3.5% from our Outlook 2020 publication is probably a bit too high in light of the latest news. We expect to update or reaffirm our economic forecasts once we have more clarity around Covid-19 impact in the weeks ahead.

    Can the Market Bottom on a Friday?
    Fri, Feb 28, 2020

    It's often said that equity markets can't bottom on a Friday. One of the reasons for this line of thinking is that during a market downturn, no one wants to hold onto or bid up equities into a weekend for fear of further bad news. It may just be a matter of semantics, but based on that line of reasoning, the more accurate way to phrase it would be that markets can't bottom on a Thursday or rallies can't begin on a Friday. However you want to think about it, the chart below shows the number of times the closing low of a 10%+ correction has occurred on various weekdays.

    Of the 97 S&P 500 corrections since 1928, the day of the week that has marked the low close of a 10%+ decline the least frequently is actually Wednesday with only 10. Behind Wednesday, Friday has been the second most infrequent day of the week for a bottom (15), and Thursday is the only other day of the week where the S&P 500 has made a low on a closing basis less than 20 times. The days of the week where the S&P 500 most frequently bottoms are Monday and Tuesday with 26 and 28, respectively.

    [​IMG]

    Regarding bear markets (20%+ declines), the trend is very similar. Bear markets have been the least likely to end on a Wednesday or Friday and most likely to end on a Tuesday.

    [​IMG]

    Dividend Stock Spotlight: S&P 500's Highest Yielders From The Sell-Off
    Fri, Feb 28, 2020

    Given the lower prices of stocks, dividend yields have been on the rise over the past couple of weeks. The dividend yield of the S&P 500 now stands at 2.12% which is the highest since June 3rd of last year when it reached the same level, but only stayed there for a single day. Prior to that, yields were only higher during the Q4 2018 sell-off through February of 2019. At the beginning of the current sell-off on February 19th, the S&P 500's yield was 26 bps lower at 1.86%.

    [​IMG]

    Of the individual stocks in the index, there are now 81 stocks that have dividend yields of 4% or more. That compares to only 64 at the beginning of the sell-off. In the table below, we show the 25 highest yielders of the S&P 500 as well as the price change and change in the dividend yield since the 2/19 record high. As shown, there is only one stock, Macy's (M), that yields over 10% at the moment. This major retailer has fallen out of favor in the past few years but the stock has gotten crushed since the 2/19 market peak having fallen just under 21% in that time. That decline has raised the dividend yield by 2.44 percentage points, but there is one other stock that has seen its yield increase by even more. That stock is Occidental Petroleum (OXY), the second-highest yielder in the index (9.93%). Being an Energy name, OXY has fallen the most dramatically (-29.05%) since 2/19 of all the highest yielders.

    [​IMG]

    While there is a lot of overlap, in the table below we show the stocks that have seen their dividend yields rise the most as stocks have declined since 2/19. Again OXY and M top the list. While no other stocks have seen their dividend yields increase by more than 2 percentage points, there are another 17 who have risen by at least 1 percentage point. Notably, two cruise line stocks, Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) find themselves on this list. Carnival (CCL) now yields 6.28% while Royal Caribbean (RCL) yields 4.05%.

    [​IMG]

    The Biggest Losers (and a few winners)
    Fri, Feb 28, 2020

    It is no secret that energy stocks have gotten crushed this year, and the list of the 25 worst-performing stocks in the Russell 1000 since the previous record close on February 19th is a prime example of this. Seven energy stocks find themselves on this list, two of which, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Kosmos Energy (KOS), take up the number one and two spots having fallen 45.73% and 41.95%, respectively since 2/19. CHK had already been weak headed into the broader market sell-off with a YTD loss on 2/19 over 40%; the past week has added fuel to the fire as it is now down 68.5% YTD. Continental (CLR), Centennial Resource Development (CDEV), Transocean (RIG), and Apergy (APY) are other energy stocks that were down 20% or more on the year headed into this sell-off, and each one has fallen another 20%+ since the 19th. While most of the other biggest losers since 2/19 had already been down on the year, there are some that have seen their gains in 2020 get erased due to this sell-off like Nutanix (NTNX), Qurate Retail (QRTEA), Anaplan (PLAN), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Chemours (CC), and CommScope (COMM). Some other notable losers of this group have been those heavily reliant on travel like American Airlines (AAL) and the cruise line stocks like Norwegian (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean (RCL).

    [​IMG]

    Given how breadth has been over the past week, it may not come as any surprise that since the February 19th high there are only 18 stocks of 1000 in the Russell 1000 index that are higher. Four of those are up less than one percent. In the table below we show all of these stocks. Given the sell-off has centered around coronavirus fears, it is sensical that a coronavirus vaccine developer Moderna (MRNA) is the best performing stock since 2/19. What is amazing is there was not much momentum with this name headed into the sell-off. As of 2/19, the stock was actually down 3.27% year to date, but as the Covid-19 saga has moved along it is now up well north of 30% on the year. A few other health care names like Regeneron (REGN) and Gilead (GILD) have also benefited from the coronavirus.

    [​IMG]

    The histogram below shows the distribution of performance of Russell 1000 stocks since 2/19. As mentioned above, there are very few stocks in the index that are up since the 2/19 high. The highest share of stocks are down between 10% and 15% while the next highest share are down between 5% and 10%. Of the worst decliners, there are 75 stocks that have fallen over 20%.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at the individual sectors, again Energy was extremely weak even before equities sold off. On 2/19, the average Energy stock in the Russell 1000 in that sector was down 15.6% YTD. While they hadn't tipped into the red yet, Consumer Staples were only up 1 bp.

    [​IMG]

    Since the 2/19 high for the US equity market, the average stock in the Russell 1,000 is down well over 10%. The average Energy stock is down the most at -21%, followed by Communication Services and Technology at -13%. Consumer Staples stocks have performed the best with an average decline of 8.9%.

    [​IMG]

    This leaves every sector down year-to-date. Utilities have generally outperformed only falling 2.3%, but the sector is sitting on a loss nonetheless. Of the worst sectors, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and of course Energy have fallen 10% or more.

    [​IMG]

    Utilities Now Larger Than Energy -- S&P 500 Sector Weightings
    Thu, Feb 27, 2020

    The Energy sector continues to get smashed. The sector was already massively underperforming before coronavirus emerged, but since February 19th when the outbreak decided to start panicking markets around the world, Energy has fallen more than 17%. That's nearly a fifth of the sector's value in less than ten days!

    Remarkably, the Energy sector's weighting in the S&P 500 has now fallen to just 3.5%. This leaves Energy as the third smallest sector of the S&P 500, with the Utilities sector over-taking it in fourth.

    [​IMG]

    Below is a chart showing the Energy sector's S&P 500 weighting back to 1990. Talk about a disaster.

    [​IMG]

    At its peak in June 2008, the Energy sector was the 2nd largest in the S&P 500 and less than 70 basis points away from Technology in first. Below is a pie chart showing sector weightings back then. Energy in mid-2008 was one of the three most impactful sectors on performance along with Tech and Financials.

    [​IMG]

    Fast-forward to today, and the current pie chart of S&P 500 sector weightings shows that Energy barely moves the needle.

    [​IMG]

    Below are charts comparing the weightings of the Energy and Utilities sectors back to 1990. This week is the first time in at least the past 30 years that Utilities has had a larger weighting in the S&P 500 than the Energy sector. Become a Bespoke Premium member to view Bespoke's most actionable analysis.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Global Equity Benchmarks Distance From YTD Highs
    Wed, Feb 26, 2020

    The recent equity sell-off has clearly been global in nature as concerns of a global pandemic rise. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the way equities have sold off recently is that the country that has been hardest hit by the virus is closer to its YTD high than any other major global equity benchmark. The chart below shows the distance that each major global equity benchmark has declined relative to its YTD high. China's Shanghai Composite is down just 4.45%, which is better than any other country shown. Sure, you could argue that the Chinese government is manipulating the market and prohibiting investors from selling, but even the ETF that tracks the CSI 300 (ASHR) is down less than 6%, so anyone could go in and trade at these levels. Manipulated or not, the numbers are the numbers.

    At the bottom of the list, Brazil's Ibovespa index is down more than any other country at 11.6% and that country has only reported one confirmed case so far. With respect to US indices, the Russell 2000 is down the second most of any major global benchmark (-9.19%), while the Nasdaq is down the fourth most at 8.68%. Even the S&P 500 is down close to 8%. These weak US readings come in a backdrop where there have only been 57 confirmed cases and all but a couple are instances where Americans contracted the virus outside of the United States and have been brought to the US under quarantine. Join Bespoke Premium to access Bespoke's most actionable stock market research and analysis.

    [​IMG]

    Just Four S&P 500 Stocks Up This Week
    Thu, Feb 27, 2020

    There's still another day left in the week, but unless things improve on Friday this will go down as one of the worst weeks for US equities in history. Since WWII, there have only been four other weeks where the S&P 500 was down more than 10% in a given week. On a related note, there are also only four stocks in the entire S&P 500 that are positive for the week! Leading the way higher, Regeneron (REGN) is up a healthy 7.1% while Gilead (GILD) is up just over 4%. Behind these two, the only other stocks that are higher now than they were at last Friday's close are Clorox (CLX) and CME Group (CME).

    [​IMG]

    On the downside, there are a lot more losers, but in the interest of space, below we have only listed the 17 stocks in the S&P 500 that are down over 20% this week alone. Looking through the names on the list, the cruise lines are well represented with Royal Caribbean (RCL), Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), and Carnival (CCL). Besides these names, American Airlines (AAL) is down 26%, while Live Nation (LYV) is down 22.2%.

    One thing we've heard a number of people argue the last few days is that some of the weakness this week is related to the increasing likelihood that Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination. If that's the case, why is not a single one of the worst-performing stocks from the Health Care sector, and why is the Health Care sector the third best performing sector this week and one of just four that is not down 10% so far this week?

    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 2.28.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Stock Market Analysis Video for February 28th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.1.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
    OldFart likes this.
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 3.2.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 3.2.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 3.3.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 3.3.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 3.4.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 3.4.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 3.5.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 3.5.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 3.6.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 3.6.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($TGT $PLUG $JD $ZM $COST $TLRY $AZO $KSS $SPLK $DLTR $VEEV $XRAY $SE $MRVL $FOLD $KR $OKTA $STNE $BLDP $BURL $CIEN $ALBO $MAXR $ANF $ITCI $FNKO $JWN $EPRT $VIPS $GTT $CORE $BNFT $LVGO $EVRG $ROST $EGRX $AOBC $TGLS $ATRS $HPE $NWN $WVE $WSC)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,832
    Likes Received:
    2,490
    Well I missed last week's opportunity to really beat the market, atlhough I had seen a sign, and there was another huge sign I should have seen but I didn't even look at.

    In monthly charts, I like to use Bollinger Bands with 2.5 (instead of 2) standard deviations of width. If I see an ER coming and the stock is already above this wider BB, I'll avoid being long. That extra half a sd width can be a lot in a monthly chart. But I ignored this for the last few weeks. Here's SPX with 2.5 sd BB in monthly:
    [​IMG]

    Last week seems to be really similar to Feb 5-9 2018, looking at weekly chart now:
    [​IMG]

    So last week is a lesson learned, don't ignore the monthly Bollinger Bands. The other thing I had going on last week, the big problem, was I had too many open positions, that may be another sign of complacency. On top of that I got the flu on Tuesday, not the Wuhan flu but the good ol' American flu lol, so I couldn't do much and slept through half the week..

    I feel like I should have made 500+ bps of alpha last week; try doing that during a bullish week. But I only managed about 250. I think I'll get another chance in May.

    Maybe it's actually the increasing likelihood that JOE BIDEN wins the nom. That's the thing that happened last week; that's the thing that people only talked about happening in whispers. Things could get ugly this summer until November.
     
  13. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,716
    Likes Received:
    861
    futures down about 1% across the big 3.
     
    OldFart likes this.
  14. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2016
    Messages:
    1,716
    Likes Received:
    861
    now futures up 2% lol, seems we will have a crazy volatile week again
     
    OldFart likes this.
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    welcome to the new trading month!

    futures all over the map during the overnight...guessing we're in for some more craziness this week :p

    [​IMG]
     
  16. Jrich

    Jrich Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2017
    Messages:
    878
    Likes Received:
    608
    TNX down another 5.5% today:eek:

    Must be nice to be one of those insiders who know when the rate cuts are coming
     
    stock1234 and OldFart like this.
  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    7,046
    Likes Received:
    2,083
    Quite the rebound today, market up nearly 3%. Dead cat, or real rebound?
     
    stock1234, OldFart and Jrich like this.
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    no real surprise here, we all figured it was only a matter of time, just weren't sure when...all the signs pointed to a TA bounce as just about everything showed extreme oversold conditions in the very short-term.

    is the bottom in, selloff over and the rebound for real?

    you'd have to ask these 2 guys here as they clearly know the answer to that question :p

    [​IMG]

    kidding aside, i'm not so sure we're done with the downside yet. i feel a retest of friday morning's low print will get tested at least one more time before we head back to our regularly scheduled bull market again.

    i also don't think we're gonna enter an official bear market (-20% off ATH) just yet either, even no matter how bad the news flow gets from here.

    there's just too much riding this year ... the most notable being the nov. election.

    just my worthless 2c here anyway.
     
    stock1234, rg7803, OldFart and 2 others like this.
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,100
    Likes Received:
    4,072
    The futures and the Asian market began to bounce when the Bank of Japan said they will do whatever they need to do to fight against the impacts of coronavirus, so the market is looking for the central banks for the rescue again :p

    Unfortunately what a lot of us feared is happening in the US, the virus begins to spread here and the virus could have been here for awhile actually since we didn't do much testing on people. Anyway, let's hope it doesn't get much worse, wash your hands often and I hope everyone here will be healthy. While seems like most healthy people do recover from this virus, it seems like this virus could easily spread and if one in the family gets it then other family members are at extremely high risks.

    Stocks like COST, WMT, and TGT are having a very good day, you don't want an event like coronavirus but anyway they are benefiting since people are loading up food, paper, and wipes, etc. :eek:
     
    T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  20. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    21,420
    Likes Received:
    7,919
    great post @stock1234! ;)

    100% agreed to everything.

    so i guess now we see if the DJ30 can make some history again (this time on the upside).

    the DJ30 has only closed up +1K once in history, that was back on dec. 26th, 2018 during the midst of the xmas massacre that year :p

    it had closed up +1,086.25 that day to be exact. let's see if we get another leg higher into the close here to challenge that record :p
     
    stock1234 likes this.

Share This Page