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Stock Market Today: March 30th - April 3rd, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Mar 27, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 30th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    • Tuesday

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    9:45 a.m. Chicago purchasing managers

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    • Wednesday

    Monthly vehicle sales

    8:15 a.m. ADP employment

    9:45 a.m. Markit manufacturing PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Construction spending

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Trade deficit

    10:00 a.m. Factory orders

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Employment report

    9:45 a.m. Markit services PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Soar To Best Week Since The '30s As Dollar & Bond Yields Crash
    After an unprecedented explosion in fiscal largesse...

    [​IMG]

    Led by USA...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Which, for The Fed, looks like this...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Who would be surprised that we saw stocks dead-cat-bounce this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Exactly on cue with the 1930s analog...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    In fact, after last week's worst performance since Lehman (2008), this week's gains were the greatest stock market week (Friday's drop included) since August 1932...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Meanwhile, as stocks soared, this was the worst week for USD since September 1985 - which just happens to be the signing the Plaza Accord (which is intriguing as it happened out of nowhere right after the G-20 meeting - did they 'agree' a Shanghai Accord? A Plaza Accord 2.0?)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And the plunge in the USD, rather oddly, was accompanied by a continued surge in FRA-OIS (signaling dollar shortages remain extreme)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And something is spooking interbank markets - LIBOR-OIS is screaming higher as if banks are frightened of one another once again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And amid all this chaos, USA sovereign credit risk has been notched notably higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This seemed to sum things up nicely...





    Stocks bounced globally this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    US markets were ugly at today's open but the machines went wild in the last hour try and get back to green until news that The Fed was reducing its bond buying package next spoiled the party...

    [​IMG]

    But the week was extremely impressive - the best week for Dow since 1932...

    [​IMG]

    Helping stocks dead-cat-bounce was the fact that this was the biggest short-squeeze week in history (even with today's losses)... but still, in context, it's a drop in the ocean!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably cruise line stocks crashed as it appears their non-US domicile rules out the rescue aid...

    [​IMG]

    The week saw gains for both defensives and cyclicals but Friday was dominated by cyclical weakness...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And for one thing, bonds were not buying it at all...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And VIX is not playing along either...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Nor is market breadth...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Investment Grade credit screamed higher this week thanks to the promise of The Fed's new bond-buying program. This is the best week for LQD (the IG Corp bond ETF) ever...

    [​IMG]

    Leveraged Loans also managed a bounce... barely...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields plunged on the week with the belly and longer-end outperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg



    10Y Yields puked back below 70bps today to their 2nd lowest yield close ever after The Fed headlines hit...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil was the biggest loser on the week in commodity-land and Silver the leader...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI tumble to a $21 handle...

    [​IMG]

    And while WTI and Brent are plunging, Western Canada Select crashed to record lows below $5 a barrel!!!!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Silver surged on the week, testing $15...

    [​IMG]

    As the dollar tumbled, precious metals all ripped this week dominated by Palladium...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold's spot and futures markets have normalized...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And finally, this was the US economy's most disappointing week since June 2011 as real data dashed the optimistic expectations that so many analysts hoped for a v-shaped blip...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Will the Fed’s Bold Moves Keep Yields from Rising?

    With the major stock market indexes all entering a bear market this month, it’s no surprise that stocks have stolen most of the spotlight. However, actions taken by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to support what may be considered the safest part of the bond market, US Treasuries, may actually have more lasting implications for investors’ portfolios.

    From February 19 through midday March 9, the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell an incredible 125 basis points (1.25%), briefly reaching an all-time low of just 0.31%. In fact, the 14-day relative strength index RSI on the 10-year yield, a technical measure of momentum, was more oversold than at any point since 1971. Since then yields came roaring back, trading as high as 1.27%, before fading back to near 0.8% currently.

    It is logical to think that the incredibly bold moves from the Fed, including unlimited Treasuries purchases, will help keep yields down. But could yields actually rise from here after the Fed writes the bond market a blank check? History says yes, which seems counter-intuitive. For investors, it’s important to keep in mind that the combination of low starting yields and rising interest rates may lead to meager future fixed income returns.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, following prior announcements of quantitative easing (Fed securities purchases), yields have actually risen. Part of that story is the market pricing in higher inflation expectations as a result of the “money printing.” Another piece is the market becoming more confident in economic recovery. “The massive injection of liquidity into the bond market by the Federal Reserve—in concert with fiscal stimulus—surely helps shore up the economy and credit marekts for an eventual recovery,” noted LPL Financial Sr. Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.

    LPL Research forecasts the 10-year Treasury yield will end 2020 in the range of 1.25-1.75%. Outcomes outside of that range are certainly possible depending on how long it takes to get the pandemic under control.

    [​IMG]

    If the roughly $2 trillion in fiscal stimulus is added to the Fed’s securities purchases, and additional lending capacity that the Fed’s new programs create, the economy will get a $5-6 trillion jolt in the next several months to help us get through this crisis to the other side. In a $22 trillion US economy, that is significant and far exceeds the stimulus that dug the economy out of a ditch after the 2008-2009 financial crisis. This human crisis is not over unfortunately, but the bold moves from policymakers should help lessen the blow. The size of hit became evident in Thursday’s massive spike in jobless claims. The economic data will get worse before it gets better, but visibility into the peak of this crisis is starting to come into view and markets—both stocks and bonds—may be beginning to sniff that out.

    Making Sense of Skyrocketing Jobless Claims

    Weekly new jobless claims were reported this morning, and to no one’s surprise they rose to levels thought unimaginable just a few weeks ago. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, 3.3 million people filed new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ending March 21, almost 5 times the previous high of 695,000 set in 1982.

    “The personal and economic disruptions represented by the latest new claims number are staggering,” said LPL Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “This is a genuine human crisis, and a robust response from the Federal Reserve and Congress seems appropriate. Unfortunately, we do expect more numbers like this in the coming months. At the same time, markets are forward looking and will be more focused on how quickly we might be able to get to the other side.” Per LPL’s Chart of the Day:

    [​IMG]

    While the number of new claims is extraordinary, it’s not entirely unexpected. The United States and countries across the globe have shut down entire segments of their economies in an effort to delay or disrupt the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many of the jobs most impacted by social-distancing measures, such as cashiers, restaurant workers, and hotel staff, are in the services sector, which now makes up about 80% of the jobs in the United States.

    There is no silver lining in a number like this, but there is reason for hope. The US economy was not in a recession prior to the global spread of COVID-19. Workers are not being let go because of some structural fault in the economy or a financial crisis. As a result, when the slowdown ends, we may not see the extended hiring delay that has typically followed recessions. In fact, a surge in demand may require extra hiring, although it may not take place until people are fully confident that social distancing is no longer necessary.

    Markets may not be responding to the dramatic numbers seen this morning, but they have been absorbing the rapidly changing economic expectations it represents over the last few weeks. We’ll see a lot of this over the next couple of months: historic numbers with markets seemingly unmoved. But it’s not because they’re indifferent. Economic data is slow moving and backward looking, while our economic reality has been changing at an unprecedented pace. Even new unemployment claims, which are released weekly, seem somewhat stale. Markets will still be reacting to shifting expectations of the depth and duration of the slowdown, as well as the effectiveness of policies to help businesses and workers get to the other side.

    Market Volatility Stresses Liquidity

    The COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented volatility in recent weeks that has investors and traders scrambling to assess the economic and market impact of the aggressive containment measures.

    This past week the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures the implied 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 Index based on options contracts, measured its highest reading since its inception at over 82—besting the prior high set during the financial crisis in 2008-2009, shown in the chart below. That is saying something.

    [​IMG]

    As market participants have sought shelter from the storm in traditional safe havens such as US Treasuries, gold, or cash, we have seen signs that liquidity has dried up. All that means is buyers have become more tentative, demanding lower prices to get trades done due to the historic volatility and heightened uncertainty. That in turn can lead to wider bid-ask spreads for market participants—both retail investors and institutions—and we sometimes see a dollar of value selling for 95 cents, if not less.

    We have seen some of this in the corporate bond markets in recent days. Even short-maturity, high-quality investment grade corporate bond strategies have seen market prices disconnect with their fair value, as measured by net asset value (NAV). That metric essentially adds up the value of individual bonds in a portfolio such as an exchange-traded fund, which should in theory match the market price of the security that we all see on our screens.

    “In volatile markets, quality items go on sale to clear the racks because there aren’t a lot of shoppers walking through the malls,” noted Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist. “Improving liquidity in all markets can help restore investor confidence after being shaken the past few weeks.”

    At their worst, these conditions can translate into serious dislocations, such as those experienced during the financial crisis when banks didn’t trust each other enough to make overnight loans and credit froze up. Short-term lending is a necessary lubricant for economic activity.

    Investors can get hurt selling into these dislocated markets. This is where the Federal Reserve (Fed) comes in. The programs the Fed launched on Monday, March 23—including buying large amounts of corporate bonds—are aimed at restoring health to credit markets. The central bank’s aggressive bond purchases (as much as needed) should help restore orderly trading in corporate bonds and narrow spreads, a measure of risk, which have widened significantly in recent weeks. As shown in the chart below, spreads are still well short of 2008-2009 highs.

    [​IMG]

    There is some other good news here. These dislocations can present opportunities for buyers to get discounts they may not otherwise see in normally functioning market environments. We aren’t suggesting running out and buying securities trading at the biggest discounts to their intrinsic value. Instead, we are highlighting that attractive opportunities are emerging in the corporate bond market, particularly in strategies focused on strong companies that may emerge on the other side of this crisis as leaders of the economic rebound.

    Time In The Market Versus Timing The Market

    The incredible volatility continues, with the S&P 500 Index now in one of its worst bear markets ever, along the way making the quickest move from an all-time high to down 30% at only 22 days. What is a long-term investor to do?

    “Although market timing is very alluring to investors, especially after the past few weeks, the reality is timing things incorrectly can set you back significantly,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, if you started in 1990 and missed the best day of the year each year for the S&P 500, your annual return was nearly cut in half.”

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the annualized return for the S&P 500 from 1990 to 2019 was 7.7%. Yet, if all you missed was the best day of the year, that return dropped to only 3.9%. Miss the best two days of each year, and you were up less than 1% a year. Taking it to the extreme, if you missed the best 20 days of each year, you’d be down 27% per year.

    [​IMG]

    No one can consistently pick the best or worst days of the year, so this is why it can be so dangerous for investors to miss time in the market by trying to time the market. If you miss one or two big days, compounded over time, this can greatly impact your portfolio.

    Boeing (BA) Sends the Dow Flying
    Wed, Mar 25, 2020

    Turnaround Tuesday has carried into hump day with the Dow up well over 5% again today as of this writing. As we mentioned in an earlier post, that means the Dow is on track for its first back-to-back up days for the first time since early February. Remarkably, even with only two consecutive up days, the index is closing in on exiting a bear market. For that to happen, the Dow would need to close above the 22,310.32 level which is 20% off of the bear market closing low (Monday's close at 18,591.93). At today's high, the Dow was less than 300 points or 1.32% from that level.

    As for the individual stocks contributing to the rally, Boeing (BA) deserves a lot of thanks. The stock has been hit very hard during the sell-off. Whereas the stock has traded in the mid-$300 for much of the past two years and up to mid-February, as of late last week BA had fallen below $100. That massive drop in price means that day to day movements in the stock would have a lesser impact on the level of the price-weighted Dow. In spite of this, BA has contributed over 400 points to the Dow's rally in the past two days alone! That is much more than any other stock in the index with the next biggest contributor being UnitedHealth (UNH) who's 335.44 point contribution comes as its share price is currently around $100 more than BA. BA's contribution is also almost 200 points more than those of McDonald's (MCD), Visa (V), and Apple (AAPL). Of all 30 Dow stocks, there is only one that is down over the past couple of days, subtracting from the index's rally: Walmart (WMT). Given WMT has held up fairly well recently, its performance is yet another example of investors' focus on the more beaten down names that we have noted earlier today and in last night's Closer.

    [​IMG]

    Records All Around Claims
    Thu, Mar 26, 2020

    No one was expecting a strong number for jobless claims this week as forecasts were predicting claims to come in at a record high. The median forecast was calling for claims to total 1.7 million compared to 282K last week which had been the highest reading since September of 2017. Instead, they practically doubled those forecasts coming in at a record 3.283 million. Fortunately, that was less than some of the most aggressive estimates like Citigroup which forecasted claims to be 4 million. This week's data is an unprecedented albeit anticipated jump in jobless claims. To put the size of the number into perspective, that is roughly 1% of not the US working population, but the entire US population! In the history of the data going back to 1967, there has never been a higher number in the level of claims (first chart below) or week-over-week change (second chart below). The previous high for jobless claims was 695K from October of 1982, almost one-fifth of this week's print. As for the week to week changes, the over 3 million increase in claims blew the size of the previous largest movements out of the water.

    [​IMG]

    The four week moving average typically helps to smooth out the week to week fluctuations of the high-frequency data, but considering the size of the move, the utility of the moving average is fleeting this week. The moving average has also reached a record high and experienced the largest one week increase on record.

    [​IMG]

    While it may not be much consolation given how horrific this week's numbers are, one silver lining is in the non-seasonally adjusted number. Before seasonal adjustment, jobless claims were slightly less staggering at 2.898 million. In other words, seasonal factoring does make the number of claims look higher than the actual amount reported. But that is still the largest weekly increase and highest number on record regardless of any seasonal patterns that may be affecting the number. Given more workers are continuing to stay home than return to work these numbers are likely to keep rising over the coming weeks.

    [​IMG]

    How Much Cash For Households?
    Fri, Mar 27, 2020

    This morning the US House of Representatives is planning to pass the $2 trillion dollar economic stimulus package voted out of the Senate 96-0 earlier this week after intensive negotiations between the White House, Senate (including both Majority Leader McConnell and Minority Leader Schumer), and the House (Speaker Pelosi). The bill is enormous, with dozens of provisions ranging from modest grants to specific hospitals or other institutions to huge sweeping programs like cash rebates or corporate lending. We wanted to focus on two key aspects and see how much cash households can expect from the bill. To make things easier, we're using New York State unemployment benefit amounts, assuming joint filers both work and earn the same amount of income, and ignoring head-of-household filers. We also use big, round numbers, so it's important to stress this is an illustrative example. Actual benefits may vary substantially, but this is a rough set of guideposts.

    The first key benefit is a cash rebate of $1200 per adult (plus $500 per child). This amount is phased out above an annual income of $75,000 per person ($75,000 per single filer, or $150,000 for joint-filers). The second benefit adds $600 to state unemployment payouts per beneficiary per week and extends those benefits for four months. We should also note that in addition to the $600, the new bill expands the scope of who can apply for unemployment insurance, though that fact is not relevant to our calculations. In the table below, we show the dollar amount of payments in unemployment insurance as would typically be the case plus the cash payment and expanded unemployment benefits passed by the Senate bill, varying by household circumstance. As shown, while workers who do not end up on unemployment insurance roles don't get a huge cash payout, amounts can still be large. Phase-outs over $75,000 in annual earnings mean childless filers making six figures get nothing, and having children makes a big impact for the total cash taken home by households who get these checks. For workers who receive unemployment benefits, the amount of cash put up by the government to keep people afloat is genuinely impressive: for a single filer that was earning minimum wage and working 40 hours per week (~$15,000 per year), the next four months offer about $13,000 in cash payments. There are similar amounts of cash handed out to anybody that loses their job, although number of children and size of income varies substantially.

    [​IMG]

    With similar cash support for fired workers by income, on a relative basis this bill is extremely progressive. For adults earning roughly $20,000 per year or less, the bill more than replaces income lost from the pandemic. For example: adults making $15,000 will have income 162% higher than they otherwise would if they file for unemployment inusrance. Any household with average adult income below $55,000 will receive higher income than they otherwise would. Of course, that's why this bill is "stimulus"; it's trying to encourage consumer spending. It's also notable that those who don't file for unemployment insurance universally come away better off because our analysis assumes they do not lose income.

    [​IMG]

    Historic Daily Moves, Historic Market Times
    [​IMG]
    Today’s market gain of 11.4% for DJIA was of historic proportions, logging the best gain since 1933. Ironically, that record DJIA gain of 15.3% was achieved in the month of March and on the Ides of March, 3/15/1933 to be precise. Take a look at the image above from page 164 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2020 and you will a see a few other gains of similar magnitude from other historic market times: 1929, 1931, 1932, 1987 and 2008.

    Hat tip to our good friend J.C. Parets of All Star Charts who “Caught [himself] looking at this page today in [his] Almanac.” He put a similar image as the one above on his Twitter feed and tagged me. He accurately points out that “This sort of behavior is not characteristic of a healthy environment for stocks.”

    Moves of this magnitude in either direction have become a rather regular occurrence these past few weeks. One could argue that market volatility has been on the rise since the repeal of the Glass–Steagall Act of 1932 which separated commercial banking from investment banking. Electronic trading has accelerated the increase and frequency of large daily swings.

    To wit: We have never before experienced the frequency and magnitude of the daily market moves we’ve had since the last week of February 2020. Over the past 22 trading days starting on February 24 DJIA has logged 6 gains of 3% or more, 11 losses of -3% or more; 6 gains of 4% or more, 7 losses of -4% or more; and 4 gains of 5% or more, 5 losses of -5% or more. This has never occurred before.

    In order to put the current market into some historical perspective we compiled the table below of previous times DJIA has logged 5 days with gains of 3% or more and 5 days with losses of -3% or more over 20 trading days. It’s not a long list: November-December 2008, September 1932, October 1931 and November-December 1929. Not the best company to keep.

    So while today’s gain is welcome and encouraging, volatility remains high and daily moves of this frequency and magnitude in both directions have occurred during major market declines. Record gains like today are not necessarily an indication that we have seen the low. It is constructive, but not a foregone conclusion. Stay safe and be well out there.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.27.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 3.27.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for March 27th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.29.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 3.30.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 3.30.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 3.31.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 3.31.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.1.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 4.1.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.2.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 4.2.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 4.3.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 4.3.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($RH $BB $VFF $CHWY $KMX $WBA $PAYS $TTNP $STZ $CALM $GNLN $CSU $CAG $MKC $RMBL $GPL $HEXO $PVH $DARE $CTEK $CYD $NVCN $LW $AYI $ICLK $ALPN $APOG $UNF $EAST $SMTS $CSSE $SCHN $LNDC $NG $RECN $EDAP $APTX $ASND $VRNT $MOTS $VERO)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  12. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Oh it’s going to be interesting this week. USA leading the race towards infected, and deaths doubled this weekend. I believe that people will view this as top news if USA surpasses Italy on deaths. I hope everyone stays safe. Just got the word for wfh the next month and possibly extension to end of July. Stimulus does not look like it will be helping the average joe for more than a month.

    I read into the numbers some and it appears that if the feds would have paid citizens directly and only, that every citizen would receive a $24/k check split evenly. Imagine what that would do over paying business and corporations. What would people do with the money? Would business take losses because people just wild not go fly airplanes or go buy computers or cars. Interesting concept floating out there.
     
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  13. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Futures recovering. Should be an interesting open
     
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  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    And in spite of oil touching under $20 a barrel.
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good Monday morning Stockaholics and welcome to a new week, fresh start!

    Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone in here has a great trading day and week ahead this week! :)
     
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  17. turtle957

    turtle957 Member

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    Yeah I think this week will give us a good directional look at where things are headed both in terms of overall COVID-19 news and the markets. My guess is there's going to be two stimulus packages, though. One now and one (hopefully smaller) later in the summer. It's an election year so I suspect anything to keep the ship afloat and looking polished in the near-term will be on the table for consideration...

    ...as for what that means longterm for value of the $USD, inflation, etc. if the Fed has like $10 trillion on their books and has printed tons of cash I have no idea. It's actually a pretty scary thought.
     
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Morning Lineup - 3/30/20 - A Quiet Monday
    Mon, Mar 30, 2020

    Here's one we haven't seen in a long time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both poised to open within 0.10% of their close on Friday. While global equities have been uncharacteristically stable this morning, crude oil is still experiencing extreme volatility and briefly traded below $20 to its lowest level in 17 years.

    While things are far from certain, one encouraging trend we have seen in recent trends related to the Covid-19 outbreak is that the day over day percent change in global case counts and deaths has shown signs of starting to flatten from the mid-single digits to the low single digits. Due to the fact that the decline came on a Sunday (we saw similar declines on prior Sundays), we would caution against reading too much into this, but in a world where we're grasping at straws for signs of hope, this one is worth watching. While global trends are slowing, as noted in this morning's report, US trends have still shown no similar signs of improvement.

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Vdubman

    Vdubman Active Member

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    Well selling some calls Friday was good on 3x inverse etfs. Hedging on this green open today. Lucky guess I suppose.
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    We will continue to hear more bad news unfortunately Let’s hope the number of cases will peak sooner rather than later. With all these QE going on I am reluctant to be that bearish though :p
     
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