Morning Lineup - 4/1/20 - In Like a Bear... Wed, Apr 1, 2020 Happy April Fool's Day. If only the picture of the futures market right now were a prank, but those numbers are real (at least for now). After a month-end rally tied to rebalancing, US futures are kicking off the new quarter on a down note as comments from the President last night that his administration now expects 100K - 240K deaths from the COVID-19 outbreak under a best-case scenario has really spooked investors. While those estimates are no doubt concerning, we would reiterate the point we have been making for some time now that the headlines are going to get a lot worse in the days and weeks ahead, so this shouldn't be a major surprise. The S&P 500 is poised to open down over 3.5% this morning and if those numbers hold through the close it would be the 2nd worst start to a quarter in the history of the S&P 500. The only one that was worse was the first trading day of 1932 when the S&P 500 kicked off the quarter with a decline of 6.9%. The only other quarter besides that where the S&P 500 declined more than 3% was in October 1998 during the Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Hopefully, this quarter's weak start isn't a sign that we're in for more of the same in Q2 as we saw in Q1 and March. For starters, the S&P 500's average daily change during the month of March was 4.8% which ranks as the most volatile month in the history of the S&P 500 (first chart)! Second, with a decline of 20% during the quarter, the S&P 500 had its worst quarter since Q4 2008 and just the 9th 20%+ decline on record (second chart).
The current 3-day growth rate in USA COVID-19 deaths is about 28%. Actually, minus one low day, that is also the sustained USA death rate for the past week. If that rate were to continue, USA would top 100k deaths somewhere around 13-14 April, and 300k deaths just a few days later around 18-19 April. The 1 millionth death would occur around 22-23 April. Hopefully the stay-at-home orders are enough to bring the death rate down. As I mentioned yesterday, today's deaths are a result of where the virus was 2 to 3 weeks ago. And 2 to 3 weeks ago there wasn't as much social distancing. Markets need to see that these efforts are working to slow the death rate before stabilizing (not even recovering IMO...just stabilizing, which is why I voted L-shaped recovery on @bigbear0083 's recovery poll). And PS (again): oil still bouncing around the 20-dollar mark.
the market is down, but the vix isnt really moving, and the trading range been kind of small so far, what a weird down day
Those grocery store and food stocks are easily outperforming today Pizza stocks like PZZA and DPZ are up for the day. People still need to eat and buy the toilet paper no matter what Stay safe stay healthy everyone, I haven’t heard anyone is living in NY on this forum, the situation is getting pretty bad there
wasn't too long ago that a near -5% daily move down in the indices was pretty newsworthy...nowadays however it's just your garden variety red day
nah, there's no breakers after 3:25pm eastern. however, if down -20% even after 3:25pm eastern market would halt for the remainder of the final 35 minutes or whatever is left.
If you eat a ton of Dominoes you're going to need some TP I have an old friend that lives in NYC and he says it's pretty bad there. So many lil grocery stores but they are pretty bare because everyone always eats out and now they have to cook at home. Unemployment report and payroll reports tomorrow. Going to be a bloodbath I think if the numbers are higher than 4.8mil which is pretty obvious it will be since there were 8.2mil calls to NYC state unemployment lines in the last week. Feds have locked down days of the week you can call with your last SSN digit so true claims may be delayed by this (good idea trump crew). Payroll numbers going to be bad too. I think the market will rally if the unemployment numbers are less than 4.8mil expected.
Good Thursday morning Stockaholics and welcome to a new day, fresh start! Here is this morning's pre-market news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open- <-- click there to read! Hope everyone in here has a great trading day ahead today!
So trump is in favor of not supporting cruise companies with bailouts https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-lines-should-be-u-s-based-if-they-want-loans
Unless they are registered Company in the USA. Why would we bail out companies that aren't US based with US tax dollars?
Morning Lineup - 4/2/20 - 2% of the Population Files For Unemployment Thu, Apr 2, 2020 All eyes were on jobless claims this morning, which were expected to rise by 3.7mm, though estimates were wide-ranging from 800,000 to 6.5mm. So, where did they come in? How about 6.648 million. That was above all economists forecasts! Equity markets were pricing a gain of more than 1% but have given up half of those gains in the immediate aftermath of the report. Last week's jobless claims reading reflected the fact that 1% of the US population filed for unemployment. With claims doubling this week, that means 2% of the US population filed for claims this week Not the labor force but the entire population. Given the moves in claims over the last two weeks, the historical chart of claims is essentially useless. That surge in claims we saw during the financial crisis? It looks like nothing more than a speed bump in relation to what we're going through now.
