Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of March 5th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: T.B.A.
Tariff Tantrum Ends With Massive Short Squeeze Begun The Trade War Has... and that means the end of the world, apparently? Or not... While President Trump is being blamed for this week's ugliness in stock markets, some more open-minded observers could see a few other factors involved... If The Dow closed down 1% today it would be four 1%-down-days in a row - the first time since August 2015 (the China deval and flash crash). BUT... it turns out that Trade Wars are good! On the day, Small Caps outperformed, but it seems investors are not in the least bit worried that the world is ending due to Trump tariffs... (/sarc) As Gluskin-Sheff's David Rosenberg notes, the recovery in the stock market is being led by health care, consumer staples and telecom -- the recession sectors! How interesting. Cyclically-sensitive Transports, meanwhile, are getting trampled. Total buying panic into safe-havens AAPL and FANGs... buybacks anyone? Bwuahahaha - look at NFLX!! Today's jump in stocks off the opening lows was a massive short-squeeze... "Most Shorted" stocks are up 4.7% from the lows today! The Dow bounced back to its Fib38.2% retracement of the big drop... S&P closed back above its 100DMA... And remember the massacre in gunmaker stocks overnight? Everything's fine now... Still all-in-all, not a pretty week... Vols across all major equity indices were higher on the week... But VIX was monkeyhammered lower today after tagging a 26 handle... all the way back down to 19 and change... Treasury yields jumped today amid chatter of rate-locks on looming issuance, but on the week 30Y Yields were 2bps lower and 5Y 1bp higher... The Dollar Index ended the week higher for the 4th of the last 5 weeks... Critically however, the last two days have seen the dollar slump back from the Mnuchin Massacre ledge once again... Copper and Crude were clubbed like a baby seal this week as gold and silver limped back up towards unchanged... On the week, Palladium was pounded and Silver was best among the PMs... Bitcoin had a good week, up 11% and back above $11,000, as Ripple lost some ground... This is the only the 3rd up week for Cryptocurrencies this year. Finally, we note that Global Macro-economic data has disappointed to the downside for 7 straight weeks and is now at its lowest since September...and Global Stocks seem to be catching down to that...
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
March & Beyond Largely Bullish after Up January, Down February & Positive Trifecta March can be a stormy market month and technically we are bound to test the early February lows at some point, we think it is more likely at the latter half of March as end-of-Q1 window dressing and the week after Triple Witching have been notorious weak spots. However, the odds remain in our favor for a solid March and rest of the year if history is any guide. Market weakness in February is to be expected so, on the heels of an up January with a positive January Indicator Trifecta and a down February we took a look at S&P 500 in similar years. Since 1930 the S&P 500 has been up in January and down in February with a positive January Indicator Trifecta 13 times. Only three years, highlighted in grey in the table below, had blemishes and all three were war related: 1942 and 1944 were impacted by WWII and the troop increase and bombing of Hanoi in Vietnam turned 1966 into a bear. Civil Rights marches and clashes in March 1965 brought the market down that month. Otherwise, February selloffs that follow January gains in positive Trifecta years were followed by some rather bullish action in the market with solid gains across the board, up 12 of 13 subsequent 10 months and full years for average gains of 17.9% and 17.3% respectively. After a Wild Ride, Market Still Above Average for a Midterm Year Even after experiencing their first 10% corrections since early 2016, DJIA and S&P 500 have rebounded and are currently trading above historical levels for this time of a midterm-election year. As of yesterday’s close, DJIA was up 2.8% year-to-date and S&P 500 was up 2.6%. This is well below their highs reached in January, but still better than historical averages of 0.8% (DJIA) and 0.7% (S&P 500) of past midterm years on the second to last trading day of February. Compared to past Midterm years, 1st Elected 2nd Years and Years Ending in “8”, this year diverged significantly in January and then quickly reverted in February. A choppy pattern does appear in the historical data however the magnitude is much less than experienced so far in 2018. The trend of the three historical patterns presented is higher from now until mid-April. The path is not a straight line as some weakness does appear in the second half of March. After mid-April, historical patterns deviate greatly with past Years Ending in “8” delivering the greatest full-year returns. Typical March: Bumpy Start and a Mid-Month Surge March has exhibited a tendency to begin with gains on its first and third trading days and then slip into a choppy up/down pattern until the tenth or eleventh trading day (mid-month). From that point, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000 have typically rallied until the seventeenth trading day of March. From here to the end of the month, all but Russell 2000 finish lower. On average all five indices finish March with a gain. NASDAQ’s laggard performance is mainly due to sizable losses in 1997 (–6.7%) and 2001 (–14.5%). March’s mid-month surge is likely partly due to inflows to retirement accounts (those on a 1st and 15th pay cycle) and possibly in anticipation to the beginning of another bullish earnings reporting season in April. Global Equities At New Lows Mar 2, 2018 US equities have had a bit of a bad week with 1% declines on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday and the Dow now negative on the year. While that’s a rough run, local currency prices for equities in in the rest of the world are also in tough. Below we show charts for Europe (Stoxx 600), Italy (FTSE MIB), Spain (IBEX 35), Germany (DAX), UK (FTSE 100), and Japan (Nikkei 225). All 5 of those European indices are now below their 200-DMAs, with all but Italy at new closing 52-week lows. The Nikkei 225 is also right at its 200-DMA. In short, local equity markets around the world are not performing very well in local currency terms. For US investors, it’s less painful; the dollar’s drop versus EUR, GBP, and JPY over the past year means performance is much stronger. Leading the Way to a Recession? Posted by lplresearch The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) is one of our favorite economic indicators. It is designed to predict future movements in the economy based on a composite of 10 economic indicators whose changes tend to precede shifts in the overall economy. Last week, it painted a strong backdrop for future economic growth, as it rose 1.0% month over month (+0.6% prior) and 6.2% year over year. In addition, 8 of the 10 underlying indicators improved, with gains most pronounced in residential construction, manufacturing, labor markets, and financial conditions. Looking under the hood, the 1.0% jump in January was the second highest since November 2013, while the 6.2% year-over-year gain was the largest since July 2014. Because it has a solid track record of predicting recessions, the LEI is a component of LPL Research’s Five Forecasters, with a negative move year over year suggesting increased risk of recession in the next year. “The fact that the LEI has been successful at forecasting recessions, and is one of the few forward-looking economic indicators, makes it one of our favorites. The strong recent data indicates that a recession is nowhere in sight and signals solid underlying fundamentals in the U.S. economy,” said Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist. In addition to the LEI, another leading indicator (and one of the drivers of its underlying components) also supports the notion that a recession is not on the horizon. For more insights on fourth quarter corporate earnings and the rationale for our increased earnings forecast, check out our most recent Weekly Market Commentary, “Raising 2018 Earnings Forecasts”. March Madness Posted by lplresearch Well, it had to end eventually. The S&P 500 Index is set to close lower on a total return basis for the first time in a record 15 months. “February finally cracked the volatility genie out of the bottle, and now the big question is: will he stay out for good? The good news is that March kicks off two of the strongest months historically for equities, before we hit a period of seasonal weakness from May through October,” according to Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist. Here are some stats to chew on for the S&P 500 as we enter March: March was the only month to close in the red on a price basis last year (down 0.04%). During a mid-election year, March has been down only once in eight instances since the mid-‘80s, and that was in 1994. Over the past 10 and 20 years, March has ranked as the second best month on average, at 2.4% and 2.1%, respectively; since 1950 it has been up 1.2% on average, which ranks fourth.* Not to be outdone, April has historically been even stronger in two of the three periods, as the chart below shows. Since 1950, when March has begun the month above its 200-day moving average, the average return has slightly improved to 1.3%. Over the past 20 years, when March has finished in positive territory, the returns have been quite strong—with a return of 4.1% on average. Only October sports a better return when positive. With several potentially market-moving events coming up in March, could 2018 be different from previous years? For more on the big events to be on the lookout for next month, and what they could mean for the markets, check out Market Madness for Central Banks.
Stock Market Analysis Video for March 2nd 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 3.4.18 - Will "h" spell chop next week Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 3.2.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 3.5.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Monday 3.5.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.6.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 3.6.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.7.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 3.7.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.8.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 3.8.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.9.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 3.9.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market challenge threads for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (3/5) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (3/5-3/9) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== And finally, we have our mystery chart challenge now up as well! Weekly Mystery Chart & Technical Analysis Challenge (3/5-3/9) <-- click there to participate! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
And as promised here are the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead: ($TGT $BZUN $YY $KR $MOMO $DLTR $COST $MYO $ADSK $THO $PLUG $ROST $ANF $CIEN $AEO $ZAGG $MRVL $TRXC $INSY $STRL $URBN$VCEL $BTE $FNSR $MEET $CARS $REV $DCI $BIG $KLXI $ACMR $MTLS $TECD $ARQL $AMRC $ATHM $BURL $GLYC $EDIT $FMSA) If you guys want the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning March 5th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
@bigbear0083 morning!....looks like we're the early birds today....I wasn't early enough to catch that move though...lol we'll see if this inverse H&S plays out...at resistance right about now....volume tapered off, but I also see yields has tapered off as well....should be interesting to see who pushes the markets this week - bonds or stocks
Ok. I had entered long last week at 2665. I just exited at 2707. It could go up more but I decided to profit take.
Things are basically at a ranging level on a higher time chart level. But, a deeper retrace might be nice for another long entry
Nice day for the market Those high dividend sectors like utilities and real estate that haven’t done well lately are actually doing very well today
I think rates have topped for now. NFLX breaking out. Whispers going around that the Comcast bid for Sky could lead to Disney not keeping their streaming plans on schedule (currently not going to start til 2019). Sure DIS themselves are up, with the rest of the market, but very little volume there.
