What they are saying? Michael Pearce of Capital Economics said the sharp drop in the Markit indexes are probably an exaggeration about the state of affairs in the U.S. “We don’t think it’s a genuine sign that the economy is suddenly plunging into recession.” he said, pointing to other data that paint a somewhat more optimistic view.
^^ this so, let me just say that i am no economist and i don't try to pretend to be one, but even i will have to say that this particular data it is a bit suspect at best to me. it just does not jive with all of the other data points we have been getting of late, such as this morning's job claims for example, which are still hovering very close to cycle lows. consumer confidence which if i'm not mistaken hit like a 20 year high the other week? and that was a pretty recent number, not like really old data. it's just fishy that we would get this out of the blue near contraction-like # on manufacturing from markit. i don't trust it lol. again, i'm not an economist so i'll just leave it to them to try to interpret all of this.
i feel this chart puts things into perspective a bit. -5% pullbacks in the market are quite normal and perfectly healthy. fact is, the average trading year actually sees at least three -5% dips from peak to trough throughout the course of the whole trading year. amazingly, we've still yet to officially hit the -5% down from the ATH on this current dip. so we're not even with 1 right now 2017 was the last time we went the full year w/o one. it's pretty normal though, but maybe for the newer traders/investors out there they feel scary because they have not experienced them a lot.
Ten year rates getting slammed today Fed minutes said no moves are coming for "some time" even if the economy improves. I'd say that's an admission that they moved too high too fast. All the short term rates are higher than the medium, medium-long, and long term rates. The medium-long 10-year dropping 4% today. Time to move the short term rates down.
whelp, after today it's looking like we have a shot of seeing this play out tomorrow the DJ30 would need to be up by at least +1.06% by tomorrow's close, or it will be 5 straight weeks down, which would be the first time since 2011.
More likely than not it will happen it seems like, would require some good news or a tweet from Trump for us to be up 1% tomorrow most likely
strange action premarket on futures big boys must be planning on a 1/2 day and getting an early 3 day weekend
Durable-goods orders slump in April as business investment almost dries up https://www.marketwatch.com/story/d...usiness-investment-almost-dries-up-2019-05-24 Another disappointing data after the manufacturing number yesterday. Manufacturing and housing are slowing down apparently but the job market and consumers are still doing pretty well. We probably will see slow growth in Q2 after a relatively strong Q1 for the economy.
SMH down slightly for the day. Hard to be too bullish on the semiconductor with the Huawei drama going on
^^ Have a great 3-day weekend fellas! Thank you so much for all the great contributions in here this week! I can't believe how quickly this year is flying by... Next week we close the books on the month of May. Mmm, BBQ! I think I may have a small gathering with my family on Monday and have a BBQ as well. Enjoy it!
I know right, I feel like the New year countdown didn’t happen too long ago Thanks Cy. Have a great weekend and enjoy the food as well. Can’t wait to eat my beef ribs
