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Stock Market Today: May 25th - 29th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, May 22, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of May 25th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Memorial Day holiday

    Markets closed

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: AutoZone, Booz Allen Hamilton, DouYu

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed survey

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: HP, Toll Brothers, Autodesk, Ralph Lauren, Box, Plantronics, NetApp, Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal

    12:30 p.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard

    2:00 p.m. Beige book

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Costco, Dell, Nordstrom, Salesforce.com, Ulta Beauty, VMWare, Dollar General, Burlington Stores, Steve Madden, Marvell Tech, Pure Storage

    8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods (April)

    8:30 a.m. Q1 GDP (second reading)

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    11:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams

    • Friday

    Earnings: Canopy Growth

    8:30 a.m. Personal income and spending

    8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks, Silver, Black Gold & Bond Yields Jump This Week As Dollar & Yuan Dump
    Millions more job losses, thousands more deaths, hundreds more earnings outlooks cut or dismissed, dozens of rancorous threats and promises exchanged between US and China... and still a handful of key US stocks sent the major indices soaring on the week led by Trannies and Small Caps...

    [​IMG]

    A panic bid at the close to get the indices green for the day...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Or put another way...





    Notably, after the European close on Monday, The Dow and S&P went nowhere!

    [​IMG]

    But hey "vaccines" and shit means it's a good week!!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Or it could be something else?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Seriously though, it's Mission Accomplished...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The big banks are higher on the week but notice that from the opening spike on Monday, they are all lower...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    FANG Stocks were up on the week but sold off after The Fed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields ended the week higher across the curve, but only modestly with the long-end up 4bps...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bonds and stocks decoupled...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar slipped again this week (selling ahead of The Fed and rallying after)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But on a longer-term context, the dollar is coiling...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Offshore Yuan dumped this week as US-China tensions rose...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And Hong Kong Dollar Fwds puked amid Beijing's new "security" law...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin was flat on the week, erasing most of the post-halving gains, but Ethereum had a strong week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oil was the week's big winner (again) but silver surged as gold slipped...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold/Silver just got too juicy after The Fed went all-in...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    July WTI is back at around the $34 level and stalling again...

    [​IMG]

    Finally, we appear to still be following the 1930s analog for now... which means we lift to around 26k on The Dow... Bear market rallies in 1929, 1938, 1974 saw an average 61% rebound from lows (after an average 49% drop)...which would take SPX to 3180...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Johnny Depp said, COVID deaths tell no tales of economic collapse...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Weekly Market Performance – May 22, 2020: Stocks Solid in the Midst of Health and Political Challenges

    Equities

    US equities delivered solid returns this week. With three hours to go in the week, all three markets were up almost 3% for the week, with the best performer, once again, the technology-heavy Nasdaq. The small cap Russell 2000 Index enjoyed an impressive rally, with the index returning over 9% for the week. The mid-cap S&P 400 Index also had a solid showing, returning almost 9%.

    Amid ongoing COVID-19 disruptions, rising unemployment, and risks associated with reopening the economy, US stocks continued to rebound. The rally was supported by all 50 states easing restrictions, based on improving COIVD-19 trends. Several timely indicators have pointed to a pickup in economic activity, including higher credit and debit card spending and an increase in travelers based on TSA data. Second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) could contract as much as 30% annualized, but global progress in reopening economies combined with massive stimulus measures point to a potentially strong rebound in the third and fourth quarters.

    “The S&P 500 just had the second-best 40-day rally ever, with only the returns off the March 2009 lows better,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Near-term, we have some concerns of a well-deserved pullback, but historically, these huge moves have tended to resolve much higher over the ensuing 6- and 12-month periods.”

    [​IMG]

    In a change of pace, industrials were the top-performing sector for the week, followed by the energy sector. The worst-performing sectors were healthcare and consumer staples, and they posted returns that were slightly negative for the week. Looking at style, large cap value stocks edged out large cap growth for the week.

    Leading Indicators Signal Potential Bottom

    Leading economic indicators are signaling that the pace of economic deterioration may be slowing. As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), a composite of leading data series, fell 4.4% month over month in April. While this is an undeniably abysmal reading, it is an improvement from the -7.4% in March.

    ”The monthly LEI change tends to bottom early in a recession, and sometimes even before a recession’s official start,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Stocks are forward looking, so if investors feel confident that the economic damage will not accelerate from here, they may be more willing to put capital to work. We think today’s LEI number largely confirms April’s strong moves in the equity markets.”

    [​IMG]

    The performance of the 10 underlying components in the LEI does indicate some disconnect between financial markets and the real economy. The two largest positive contributors to the headline LEI number this month were stock prices and the interest rate spread, which were buoyed by a swift and robust monetary and fiscal stimulus. Meanwhile, data series related to manufacturing, unemployment, and construction hurt the index, a reflection of the damage done to the parts of the economy in which workers are unable to perform their jobs remotely.

    As local economies begin to reopen, we look for the industries disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 virus to begin to rebound. While this will likely be a bumpy process, progress will likely become evident in future LEI releases and confirm that the worst of the economic declines are behind us. We think this should pave the way for further equity gains over a long-term horizon.

    What Happens When The Bear Ends?

    The incredible rally off the March 23 lows continues for equities, with the S&P 500 Index now up more than 32% in 40 trading days. As impressive as the rally has been, we do have some near-term concerns, as we discussed in Downside Risk Remains. Higher valuations, US-/China relations, weakening technicals, and the historically troublesome summer months all could play a part in potential weakness after the record run.

    “In 40 trading days, the S&P 500 gained 32%, which is second only to the 40 days off the March 2009 lows,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Looking back at history shows that after the initial surge off of bear lows, stocks tend to correct about 10%, which is something we could see this time around.”

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 rallied nearly 21% in 30 days after all major bear markets. But once those initial rallies ended, there was a correction of more than 10% on average. Bottoms are a process, and as impressive as this run has been, we think the odds are quite high for some type of pullback or correction over the coming months. Thanks to our friends at Strategas Research Partners for the data points below.

    [​IMG]

    Bottom Line EPS Beat Rate Below Average
    Fri, May 22, 2020

    The first quarter earnings reporting period unofficially came to an end earlier this week, and it should be considered quite a success given how well the equity market performed during this time period. Since earnings season began on April 13th, the S&P 500 (SPY) has gained more than 5%. Of course, the market's performance over the last month or so has much more to do with expectations on re-opening than how companies reported in Q1, but all things considered, the sky didn't fall when it came to earnings results.

    In terms of how actual earnings reports came in versus analyst expectations this past earnings season, the trend wasn't all that rosy. We've been tracking "beat rates" for more than a decade, which measure the percentage of companies reporting stronger than expected EPS and sales numbers (relative to consensus analyst estimates). Our main "beat rate" trackers show beat rates on a rolling 3-month basis -- meaning it looks at all companies that have reported earnings over the last three months and tells you what percentage of them beat analyst estimates.

    Below is a snapshot of both bottom-line EPS and top-line sales beat rates over the last five years as displayed on our website at our "Earnings Explorer" page. Notably, bottom-line EPS beat rates have been weakening quite dramatically over the last couple of months since the COVID crisis began. Just this week, the 3-month rolling EPS beat rate dipped below its long-term average of 59.37% dating back to the year 2000.

    On the other hand, top-line sales beat rates haven't taken quite the hit yet. The current sales beat rate stands at 60.67%. While sales on an absolute basis fell dramatically at the end of Q1, the fact that sales beat rates haven't fallen dramatically means companies have at least managed to keep up with analyst expectations. A very weak sales beat rate would have meant companies were reporting numbers even weaker than already dour analyst expectations.

    [​IMG]

    We also have a forward guidance tracker that measures the percentage of companies raising guidance versus the percentage of companies lowering guidance. When this reading turns negative, it means more companies have lowered guidance than raised guidance over the last three months. As shown below, right now our guidance spread stands at -16.08 percentage points, which is the weakest reading we've seen since early 2016.

    One thing we've seen since the COVID crisis began is that more and more companies have withdrawn guidance altogether. It's hard to blame them. The ones that have issued guidance have mostly lowered expectations. While this paints a bleak picture for the future, if you look at this from a "glass half full" perspective, it actually leaves much more room for positive surprises down the road.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Down Five Straight Day After Memorial Day
    [​IMG]
    Our office will be closed for observance of Memorial Day on Monday, May 25. U.S stock and bond markets will also be closed. As you spend some quality time off please consider taking time to commemorate those who have paid the ultimate price while serving in the U.S. military. Additionally, consider taking a moment to acknowledge first responders, nurses, doctors, law enforcement, firefighters, essential workers, scientists and everyone else that has tirelessly worked and sacrificed during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    For decades the Stock Trader’s Almanac has been tracking and monitoring the market’s performance around holidays. The trading day after Memorial Day has a mixed record going back to 1971. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ have declined more often than risen on the day, but average performance is still modestly positive. Since 1986, the frequency of gains has improved, and average performance has also risen however, over the last five years S&P 500 has declined. The second trading day after Memorial Day has more advances than declines, but average performance is negative for NASDAQ. The third day after appears to have the best long- and short-term record combined with solid average performance.
    [​IMG]
    Election-Year June: Candidate Clarity Boosts Performance
    [​IMG]
    June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks over the last 49 years as a rule ranking seventh with a 0.8% average gain, up 27 of 49 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best Eight Months” which ends in June. June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking tenth, but essentially flat (0.1% average gain). Small caps also tend to fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.8% in the month since 1979.

    In election years since 1950, June’s performance improves notably. June is the #5 DJIA month in election years averaging a 0.9% gain with a record of twelve advances in seventeen years. For S&P 500, June is #2 with an average gain of 1.3% (14-3 record). Election-year June ranks #4 for NASDAQ and Russell 2000 with average gains of 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. This performance improvement is most likely the result of presidential candidate field being sufficiently narrowed, and the ultimate nominees being identified.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 5.22.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 5.22.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for May 22nd, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 5.24.20
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 5.25.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.)

    Monday 5.25.20 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY.)

    Tuesday 5.26.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 5.26.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 5.27.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 5.27.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 5.28.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 5.28.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 5.29.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 5.29.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($COST $AZO $DG $DLTR $CRM $PLAN $CGC $BNS $OKTA $NIO $RL $WDAY $CBL $MRVL $ESLT $ADSK $HPQ $MOMO $VEEV $HIBB $ZS $ULTA $TD $CSIQ $KEYS $NTNX $PLAB $BMO $BURL $RY $MGIC $BOX $ERJ $ANF $DELL $CYD $PLT $VIPS $COHR $VIOT $NTAP)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    REMINDER: U.S. MARKETS ARE CLOSED ON MONDAY, MAY 25TH, 2020 IN OBSERVANCE OF MEMORIAL DAY.

    Hope everyone has a good day off. Stay safe and healthy.

    Here is the Globex futures holiday schedule for the upcoming holiday:

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    futures are going insane.....TO THE MOON!
     
  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    DOW currently up 2.5% and S&P closing in on 2%
     
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    have the q's hit a new ATH yet?

    i tell ya, the power of QE-infinity never ceases to amaze me.

    sharing this graphic again cause i feel it does illustrate things pretty spot on :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

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    Just got word today from top level management that they do not expect to be at 2019 levels for sales and revs until 2022 eoy.

    with the yoy numbers for April and May and current economic contraction numbers, I do agree with these thoughts. If numbers to not come back at least to -15% yoy by August 1 they will initiate layoffs in the 20-25% range.
    Certain sector orders have been pushed to August so I guess that’s the date of no return.
     
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  18. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I know lol. The economy probably have bottomed out in the short term into the summer but it is still far from strong, and the NASDAQ could hit a new ATH in the near future. Pretty crazy :p
     
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  19. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Things look not so bullish for QQQ, which is lagging today.
    Overnight low for /NQ has been breached, I don't think it will be able to retake 9500 today.
    MSFT not able to overcome the month high at 187.51, in danger of rolling over. As is TSLA.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Looks like people are buying the stocks that will benefit from the reopening today, industrials, retails, casinos, and airlines, etc are surging while some stay at home stocks like NFLX and SHOP are having a pretty red day. Healthcare also underperforming
     

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