Value stocks in favor today. "Banks and Tanks" (eg XLF and ITA) is what they're calling it. How well the tech stocks are able to hold up near their month high will be a big factor in whether SPY can hold on to the 200 sma this week.
Nobody will apparently be sitting at home playing video games all day anymore as of today?? Virus is cleared and everyone has to go back to work I guess.
Pretty much the continuation from yesterday, those stocks did well during the pandemic are underperforming and those stocks that got smashed during the pandemic are outperforming
What a run for PENN. I got in before the pandemic and was down as much as over 80% lol, now actually up 4% for my position
I feel like I am repeating myself lol but hard to be too bearish now with the FED all in for QE despite it will take time for the economy to recover
Yeah at this point I'm prepared to be totally wrong about this leg up being a setup for something really bad, thanks to the "drunks on QE." But the analogue to 1929 is holding up well, especially when you compare them on a log chart (the bear rally from ~200 to ~300 was 45%, 22K to where we are lines up on the chart but not with percentages). This article does a good job discussing the current landscape (spoiler: they think it's a bear rally). Just looking at the chart, our down leg matched 1929 almost perfectly, and we have already retraced the full 1929-1930 bear rally in about 35-40% of the time it took back then, which isn't too surprising considering info moves a lot faster these days.
just some quickie market stats I ran across in my afternoon reads here: so the spx is currently up +4% in may with just 2 trading days left to go in the month. absent shit hitting the fan these final 2 days, it is looking like may will once again close green, which would put it green in 7 of the past 8 may's, and get this, 13 of the past 18. sell in may and go away? fuggettaboutit! meanwhile, the spx is currently down just -6% ytd as of today's close. would be pretty impressive if it can actually get back into positive ground ytd, after it was down over -30% ytd at one point in march. some stats here: SPX has been green the year after it gains +28% (like 2019) a perfect 6 out of last 6 times. SPX has been green 10 out of past 10 times a President was up for re-election. and lastly, i wasn't aware of this one but found it interesting and worth a quick share in here is that the spx in Q1 fell -20% for the worst Q1 ever on record. well, now on the flip side, we are potentially looking at one of the best Q2's ever on record lol. currently as it stands with the SPX up just over +17% would be the best Q2 in 82 years if the quarter ended here, according to the good folks over at lpl research. ^^ this a bazillion %
Speaking of May, seems like it will be a strong May for the market despite we hear a lot "sell in May and go away"
i agree with all of this....im still in a lot of cash, more than i usually am....but man it really makes u wonder, what if it keeps going higher? times are different, the companies holding up the market this era are way different than the ones back in the day, and they earn their money different as well, that plus the action of the FED, there is very good reason it can keep going higher. although im still in the camp of a another big down turn rather than reclaiming the ATHs.
The rally continues It seems like the worst could be over for the virus and the economy and let’s hope we won’t see the second wave in the fall. Here in Hawaii we have zero or just one case for a lot of day, but we are a small state and I am not sure if the number of cases is declining in the mainland as well. Anyway, even if the economy is really bottoming, I doubt the market would have rallied like that without QE Stay safe and stay healthy everyone, can’t really declare victory yet until we don’t see the second wave in the fall
