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Stock Market Today: November 18th - 22nd, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Nov 16, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 18th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]


    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    10:00 a.m. NAHB survey

    12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

    4:00 p.m. TIC data

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Home Depot, TJX, Kohl’s, Aramark, Medtronic, Campbell Soup, Foot Locker, Urban Outfitters

    8:30 a.m. Housing starts

    9:00 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams

    10:00 a.m. QSS

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Lowe’s, Target, Salesforce.com, L Brands

    2 p.m. FOMC minutes

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Macy’s, Nordstrom, Gap, Intuit, Ross Stores, Berry Global, Momo

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed

    8:30 a.m. Cleveland Fed’s Mester

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    • Friday

    Earnings: JM Smucker, Buckle

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Jump To Record Highs As Bond Yields, Economic Data Dump
    Ugly retail sales and dismal industrial production capped a gravely disappointing week for US macro data, tumbling into the red for the first time in 3 months...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As four GDP-tracking estimates came down an average 0.43-pp between last Friday and today.

    [​IMG]

    And by the end of the week, stocks had pushed to record highs and Treasury yields had collapsed to two-week lows (an implied 500-Dow-point divergence)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    How will that end?





    Dow led on the week as multiple "trade deal is close" comments juiced the markets again and again (Trannies lagged)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Chinese stocks were ugly this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    European stocks were more mixed with Spain lower and the rest marginally higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The US equity market open appears to be a very bullish event...

    [​IMG]

    Vol was crushed at the close to force The Dow to close above 28,000 for the first time...

    [​IMG]

    In the US, defensives dominated the market gains...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Healthcare surged to new record highs on Elizabeth Warren's Medicare-for-All flip-flop...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Short squeeze after short squeeze were ignited this week on the heels of various "trade deal is close" bullshit headlines...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The S&P is now at its most overbought since late April...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Buybacks continue to dominate...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX continued its collapse this week...

    [​IMG]

    ..crashing to an 11 handle...

    [​IMG]

    ...and sending the term structure to its steepest since just before the VIXmageddon as XIV imploded...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But that doesn't stop the world and their pet rabbit shorting vol - to yet another new record short (5th week in a row)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Credit markets continue to decouple from stocks...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Especially in CLO-land...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields all tumbled on the week with the short-end underperforming...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    This was the biggest weekly yield compression since September...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar ended the week lower (with the last two days saw the biggest drop in a month)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Yuan ended the week marginally lower (but rebounding back above the Yuan fix overnight)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos all drifted lower this week after a big surge last weekend...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold and Silver both rallied this week while copper dropped (and crude played insane ping pong on trade/OPEC headlines)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI continues to swing between rails in a tight range...

    [​IMG]





    Notably, precious metals rallied this week amid the biggest outflows since Dec 2016...

    [​IMG]





    And finally, amid all the political circus this week, President Trump's approval rating surged to a 5-week high...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And in case you wondered why stocks just keep rising despite dismal earnings and deteriorating macro data...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    It's simple - the Fed is expanding its balance sheet at the fastest pace since the very peak of QE3 money-printing...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Pace of Market Gains Likely to Slow in 2020
    [​IMG]
    With pre-election year 2019 quickly nearing its end and the market closely tracking historical, seasonal performance throughout, let’s preview how election-year 2020 could unfold based upon historical seasonal patterns. In the following three charts for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ historical performance in Election Years, All Years and when a sitting Republican was running for a second term have been plotted.

    Since 1950 there have been five Republican Presidents that ran for a second term, Eisenhower (1956), Nixon (1972), Reagan (1984), G. H. W. Bush (1992) and G. W. Bush (2004). Only G. H. W. Bush failed to win re-election in 1992. DJIA’s average performance in these five election years was 4.1%. DJIA’s best year was 1972, advancing 14.6%, its worst year was 1984 with a 3.7% loss.

    When comparing these past five Election Years when a sitting Republican was running for re-election to All Years and all Election Years, average performance is noticeably weaker. Part of this could be due to strong above average performance in the preceding pre-election years where DJIA averaged 18.6% (1955, 1971, 1983, 1991 and 2003). Nonetheless, the current bull market is likely to continue into and through 2020 as the market has historically performed better with a sitting president running compared to an open field. However, gains may not match the pace of 2019.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    Above Average November Could Stumble Before Thanksgiving
    [​IMG]
    Stocks have been strong to start off this November. As of today’s close DJIA is up 2.39%, S&P 500 +1.79%, NASDAQ +2.34% and the Russell 2000 has risen 2.09%. This is well above historical average performance in pre-election year Novembers. DJIA and S&P 500 have averaged just 0.3% gains in 17 pre-election year Novembers since 1950. Gains this month have been driven by better than expected earnings and an improving trade outlook. However, risks still remain. Trade is likely the biggest as a deal, Phase 1 or other, still remains elusive. November also has a historical tendency to weaken after mid-month with major indexes historically surrendering the major of their first half gains beginning around the 11th trading day through the fourteenth trading day. Should such a dip occur this November, don’t despair as the month also has a historical tendency to rally strongly from around the fifteenth trading day to its end.

    Sluggish Manufacturing in the New York Region
    Fri, Nov 15, 2019

    This morning saw one of the first looks at November activity with the NY Fed Empire Manufacturing report. Economists weren't expecting much of a strong report to begin with as the consensus forecast for the headline General Business Conditions index was for a reading of 6.0 vs last month's reading of 4.0. The actual reading actually showed a slight decline from last month, though, falling to 2.9. While the current conditions index declined, expectations actually saw a small boost rising from 17.1 up to 19.4.

    One interesting thing to note is how little Empire Manufacturing has changed in recent months. With monthly readings of 4.3, 4.8, 2.0, 4.0, and now 2.9, the index has had a five-month range of just 2.8 points. In the history of the survey dating back to 2001, the only five-month window with a narrower range was in late 2011!

    [​IMG]

    In terms of plans for Capital Expenditures and Technology Spending over the next six months, it was encouraging to see both of these readings rebound after falling sharply in recent months.

    [​IMG]

    Finally, the table below shows the month/month change for each category of the Empire Manufacturing report in terms of both current conditions and expectations. What's interesting to note about this month's data is that while there was broad-based weakness in terms of current conditions, expectations rebounded, suggesting that manufacturers are expecting an upturn from current conditions.

    [​IMG]

    Shrinking Ranges
    Thu, Nov 14, 2019

    In the S&P 500's run to new highs over the last few weeks, overall volatility has really become subdued. For example, the S&P 500 hasn't had an intraday swing of even 1% in more than a month now. The chart below shows streaks over the last ten years where the S&P 500 didn't see a 1% spread between its intraday high and low and allows us to compare how the current streak stacks up to prior periods.

    While the current 24 trading day streak without a 1% intraday move is far from the longest over the last ten years, there haven't been a lot of streaks that were longer. Ironically enough, the three streaks that were the longest of the last ten years all occurred in the two years after the 2016 election. For all the turmoil that seems to surround this Administration, market turmoil hasn't been one of them.

    [​IMG]

    Sentiment Stays the Same
    Thu, Nov 14, 2019

    Despite a couple closes at all-time highs in the past week, the S&P 500 is currently right around the same levels as last Wednesday's close. With little in the way of price changes, sentiment has likewise seen little change. Per AAII's weekly survey, bullish sentiment rose just 0.42 percentage points to 40.72% from 40.30% last week. That small increase is in the bottom 5% of all week-over-week changes in bullish sentiment in the history of the data.

    While little changed, the bulk of investors are still optimistic. Another sentiment survey from Investors Intelligence also echoed these results. In that survey released yesterday, 57.6% reported as bullish. While that is the highest reading since July, it is up only around half of one percent from last week.

    [​IMG]

    Bearish sentiment was also little changed. The percentage of investors reporting as pessimistic rose 0.89 percentage points to 24.82%. Like bullish sentiment, the one week change in bearish sentiment was small relative to history with this week's change sitting in the 7th percentile of all readings. This week also marked the fourth in a row that bearish sentiment has been below its historical average. That is the longest such streak since a seven-week run from the end of March to early May of this year.

    [​IMG]

    Neutral sentiment moved the most this week falling 1.31 percentage points. Now at 34.46%, neutral sentiment is the lowest since early September and back in the middle of the past few years' range.

    [​IMG]

    Record Closes Starting to Pile Up Again
    Wed, Nov 13, 2019

    The S&P 500's breakout to new highs in late October has kicked off a resumption in the count of record closing highs with half a dozen in just the last twelve trading days. With four record closing highs during the April failed breakout and then another nine in June and July, the total for 2019 now stands at 19, which is tied with 2018. A year ago today, the S&P 500 was close to 8% below its record high, so therefore the prospect for additional highs to close out the year was low, but this year is another story altogether. As of this writing, the S&P 500 is actually above its record closing high of 3,093.08, so not only are additional new highs likely over the next seven weeks, but we may even see one today.

    The chart below shows the number of new highs for the S&P 500 by year going back to 1950. Over the 70 years shown, the greatest number of record closing highs for a given year was in 1995 when there were 77, while 1964 saw the second most with 65. In the current bull market, 2017 had the most record closing highs at 62. 2017 was also a year where the S&P 500 never saw a pullback of 3% or more, so therefore record highs were always within striking distance.

    One interesting aspect of the chart is that there have basically been three distinct periods since 1950 where new highs for the S&P 500 were clustered together. The first was from 1954 through 1968 (there were also two years in 1972 and 1973 but there were four years between without any) and the second spanned a 21-year window from 1980 through 2000. The latest period began seven years ago in 2013, and while it may seem like the current 10-year market run has become long in the tooth, if it's anything like the prior two periods, it could be another few years at least before occurrences of record new highs start to dry up.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.15.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for November 15th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.17.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 11.18.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 11.18.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 11.19.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 11.19.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 11.20.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 11.20.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 11.21.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 11.21.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 11.22.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 11.22.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($TGT $HD $LOW $M $KSS $TJX $SPLK $MDT $MANU $FL $QD $PDD $TDG $BILI $BJ $BZUN $CCMP $JKS $DAVA $INTU $JWN $CTK $NTES $PAGS $MMS $URBN $WSG $ARMK $ROST $SFUN $LX $STNE $GPS $AFMD $ASND $CRMT $PLAN $WWD $KRNT $ZTO $WUBA $SONO $ASH $VNET $JACK)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. Stoch

    Stoch Active Member

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    Two things that bother me about this runup. The GDP estimates were dropped significantly on Friday's data and the McClean was saved from turning over. Not great turnaround data to support new ATH. I guess it could just be helicopter money from the fed's balance sheet after all.


    [​IMG]


    [​IMG]
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  14. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Volatility has been nice and low, but for certain it will come back at some point. The April VIX strike 13 calls @ 5.50 seems like a pretty decent hedge if the latest bull run encounters a correction. My m.o. is to usually buy two of these, and then when the May contracts come out, buy two of those, and so on, until volatility spikes. When it does, I sell one of each expiration to help pay for the other, and then ride it out for as much volatility as the market wants to throw. This acts as a true (volatility) hedge. Of course, it can be nerve-wracking to watch these premium-rich calls lose value, but in the past I've never had to wait more than about 12 to 14 weeks for the VIX spike to make it all good.

    Screenshot 2019-11-18 at 10.53.24 AM.png
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    looks like we have new ATHs made in the regular trading hours session today, but it never took out the overnight high in the /ES futures, which typically does not signal the end of the move..

    still looking for that excess high, where the ATH is made in the RTH, followed by a sharp pullback that closes near the lod and below prior day's low. have yet to see anything like that...not too sure if we'll see it today given the narrow and choppy ranges lately.
     
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  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    whelp, today will make it 29 consecutive trading days where the spx was not down back-to-back days ... that'll now be the longest streak since march of 2005 :eek::p

    [​IMG]
     
  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    if the market feels extremely slow, flat, boring, sideways, choppy, you name it -- it's because it has :p

    fact is the spx has traded in less than a 1% intraday trading range for 25 consecutive days ... nothing too terribly noteworthy about this streak since it only takes us back to last year, but interesting that we've had multiple long low volatility streaks like this in the past few years :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    obviously not my charts but thought was worth sharing in here as well, that the spx has been trading above its 10ma for the past 27 consecutive trading days. this actually happens to be the 2nd time this year that we've seen a streak of this length. 1979 was the last time we saw that :p

    [​IMG]

    finally, 71.2% of all the trading days so far this year in the spx have closed above the 10ma. only 2 other years were higher (1995 and 2017).

    [​IMG]
     
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I bought a little bit of CME, think it should outperform if volatility begins to spike :p
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Feel like we will grind higher slowly into end of the year, wouldn’t be surprised to see volatility begins to spike at the beginning of next year though if they are still making good progress on the Phase 1 deal but no actual deal is being signed :p
     
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