Stock Market Today: November 20th - 24th

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by Stockaholic, Nov 17, 2017.

  1. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 20th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]


    Major Indices End of Week:
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    Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday:
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    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
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    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
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    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Intuit, ZTO Express, Urban Outfitters, Agilent

    10:00 a.m. Leading index

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: HP, Game Stop, Cracker Barrel, Chico's FAS, Campbell Soup,Dollar Tree, Hormel Foods, Salesforce.com, Hewlett Packard Enterprises

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing

    10:00 a.m. Existing home sales

    6 p.m. Fed Chair Janet Yellen at NYU Stern School, Q&A

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Deere

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    2:00 p.m. Fed minutes

    • Thursday

    Thanksgiving Day

    • Friday

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

    9:45 a.m. Non-manufacturing PMI
     
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  2. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Gold Gains As Stocks Slide, Yield Curve Crashes, & Dollar Dumps
    Economic Data continues to surprise to the upside (compared to what had been terrible expectations)...is this as good as it gets?

    [​IMG]

    But credit, the yield curve, and now stocks are not loving it...



    Small Caps were the only major index green today...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow and S&P 500- fell for the 2nd week in a row - something they haven't done for 3 months...Small Caps best on the week (followed by Nasdaq thanks to yesterday's panic buy)...

    [​IMG]



    Futures show the crazy moves this week better..

    [​IMG]



    VIX was slammed late on today in a desperat ebid to get the S&P green on the week...

    [​IMG]



    But while stocks rebounded briefly, FX carry wasn't...

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    And nor was the bond market...

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    Big week for tax-related stocks...

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    SFIX went public today at $15...

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    While US HY bond prices ended the week higher (thanks to yesterday's melt up)...but still remains well below its 200DMA...

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    US HY spreads rose for the 4th week in a row...

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    European HY Fund assets crashed to their lowest since June 2016...

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    Treasuries were mixed on the week with the front-end higher in yield and back-end lower....

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    The US Treasury yield curve crashed almost 10bps this week - the biggest flattening since Dec 2016 to its flattest since Nov 2007

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    Note that is the flattest 2s10s since Oct 2007... The last 3 times it was this flat, the US economy was in recession...

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    The Dollar Index had its worst week in over 2 months, dropping to 1-month lows... (this is also the first consective weekly decline in the dollar index since July)

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    Yen and Euro strength weighed the most on the dollar this week... (AUD and CAD were weaker as oil slipped)

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    USDJPY was clubbed like a baby seal this week (worst in 2 months) - (today was USDJPY's worst drop since May). It seems 114.000 to 112.00 is the corridor...

    [​IMG]



    Gold had its best week in over a month, surging back above its 50DMA towards the $1300 level...

    GOLD



    Bitcoin had another big week - getting as close to $8000 as possible... (up 45% from its lows last weekend)...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we note that in the weeks since MbS launched his 'corruption' crackdown in Saudi Arabia, only one asset has really shone...

    [​IMG]
     
  3. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

    Investors aren’t paying attention.

    [​IMG]

    There is an important picture that is currently developing which, if it continues, will impact earnings and ultimately the stock market. Let’s take a look at some interesting economic numbers out this past week.

    On Tuesday, we saw the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) which ROSE 0.4% for the month following a similar rise of 0.4% last month. This surge in prices was NOT surprising given the recent devastation from 3-hurricanes and massive wildfires in California which led to a temporary surge in demand for products and services.


    [​IMG]

    Then on Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released which showed only a small 0.1% increase falling sharply from the 0.5% increase last month.

    [​IMG]

    This deflationary pressure further showed up on Thursday with a -0.3 decline in Export prices. (Exports make up about 40% of corporate profits)


    For all of you that continue to insist this is an “earnings-driven market,” you should pay very close attention to those three data points above.

    When companies have higher input costs in their production they have two choices: 1) “pass along” those price increase to their customers; or 2) absorb those costs internally. If a company opts to “pass along” those costs then we should have seen CPI rise more strongly. Since that didn’t happen, it suggests companies are unable to “pass along” those costs which means a reduction in earnings.

    The other BIG report released on Wednesday tells you WHY companies have been unable to “pass along” those increased costs. The “retail sales” report came in at just a 0.1% increase for the month. After a large jump in retail sales last month, as was expected following the hurricanes, there should have been some subsequent follow through last month. There simply wasn’t.

    More importantly, despite annual hopes by the National Retail Federation of surging holiday spending which is consistently over-estimated, the recent surge in consumer debt without a subsequent increase in consumer spending shows the financial distress faced by a vast majority of consumers. The first chart below shows a record gap between the standard cost of living and the debt required to finance that cost of living. Prior to 2000, debt was able to support a rising standard of living, which is no longer the case currently.

    [​IMG]

    With a current shortfall of $18,176 between the standard of living and real disposable incomes, debt is only able to cover about 2/3rds of the difference with a net shortfall of $6,605. This explains the reason why “control purchases” by individuals (those items individuals buy most often) is running at levels more normally consistent with recessions rather than economic expansions.

    [​IMG]

    If companies are unable to pass along rising production costs to consumers, export prices are falling and consumer demand remains weak, be warned of continued weakness in earnings reports in the months ahead. As I stated earlier this year, the recovery in earnings this year was solely a function of the recovering energy sector due to higher oil prices. With that tailwind now firmly behind us, the risk to earnings in the year ahead is dangerous to a market basing its current “overvaluation” on the “strong earnings” story.

    Don’t say you weren’t warned.

    In the meantime, here is your weekend reading list.

    Trump, Economy & Fed
    VIDEO – It’s A Turkey Market




    Markets
    Research / Interesting Reads


    “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” – Sir John Templeton
     
  4. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD thus far in 2017-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
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  5. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Thanksgiving Trade: Day Before & Friday After Most Bullish
    [​IMG]
    Trading around Thanksgiving has a bullish tendency perhaps buoyed by the “holiday spirit.” First published in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac, the Wednesday before and the Friday after Thanksgiving combined were up 34 times in 35 years. The only S&P 500 decline was in 1964.

    Subsequently, this trend changed. In the 30 years since 1987, there have been 8 declines and 22 advances. The best short-term trade appears to be getting long into weakness on Monday or Tuesday of Thanksgiving week and selling into any subsequent rally by the end of Thanksgiving week, but remain nimble as events like Greece’s debt crisis in 2011 can cancel Thanksgiving on Wall Street.
    [​IMG]
    Also of note is the change in the yearend rally. Prior to 1987, from the close of trading on the Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend, the S&P 500 rallied only 20 times in 35 years. As Thanksgiving bullishness lost steam in 1987, the rally afterwards occurred more frequently. Since 1987, S&P 500 has logged gains in 22 of 30 years from the close on Friday after Thanksgiving to yearend.

    Small Caps for Sale: Seasonal Sweet Spot Setup
    [​IMG]
    There has been a good deal of rhetoric lately as to how small caps have underperformed this year. On closer examination however small caps have actually performed right in line with historical seasonal patterns and are poised for their usual seasonal breakout which tends to begin in late-November, but does not fully get underway until mid-December.

    Yesterday’s outperformance by the Russell 2000’s up 1.6% on the day compared to 1.3% for NASDAQ and 0.8% for DJIA and S&P 500 indicated to us that small caps are on the brink of breaking out into their typical yearend rally, outperforming larges caps from about mid-December to early-March.

    The chart below taken from page 110 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017 shows the one-year seasonal pattern of the ratio of the Russell 2000 to the Russell 1000 from July through June to highlight the perennial low point of this relationship November and the winter rally mentioned above.

    [​IMG]
    We have added the performance of this ratio in 2017 so far through November 13 and updated the historical average pattern through June 30, 2017. While this year’s pattern has more amplitude, the trend is quite similar to the historical pattern. Small caps underperformed from June through late-August, then had the usual Labor Day rally, albeit greater and a bit longer, followed by a customarily weak October. It now appears that small caps are setting up well for their season of outperformance.

    For more on this historical seasonal pattern see pages 106 & 110 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2017 or pages 108 & 110 in the 2018 edition. The 2018 edition is now available for free with a subscription to our newsletter.

    All Year In the Black
    Nov 13, 2017

    With the S&P 500 currently up 15% year-to-date, we’d basically need to see a market crash for the index to close down on the year when all is said and done on December 29th, 2017 (the last trading day of the year). If the market doesn’t crash, the S&P will likely go the entire year without trading into negative territory at any point.

    [​IMG]

    As shown below, there have only been ten prior years where the S&P went the entire year without trading into negative territory. The last two were relatively recent in 2012 and 2013. What’s notable in the table is the performance in the following year after the S&P goes an entire year “in the black.” Following the ten prior occurrences, the index traded up the next year nine times and down just once. On average, the next-year gain was +12.52%. Investors would surely sign up for another 10%+ gain in 2018!

    [​IMG]

    Let’s Talk Turkey
    Posted by lplresearch

    As we head into Thanksgiving week, investors have many things for which to be thankful; from a global bull market in equities, led partly by a strong resurgence in corporate earnings, to very few signs of a recession starting over the next 12-18 months. There are a few near-term catalysts we’re watching, but there are also many longer-term positive signs. And since we’ve already talked a lot about how 2017 has so far been one of the strongest and least volatile bull markets ever, today we’ll change gears and talk turkey!

    In honor of everyone’s favorite Thanksgiving Day bird, did you know that the size of your average turkey has grown substantially over the past 50 years? That’s right; the average turkey was 17 pounds in 1960 and was more than 30 pounds last year.

    Per Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist, “Although this is purely spurious and in no way should you ever invest based on it, you have to smile when you compare the average size of turkeys in the U.S. to the S&P 500 Index. Both have moved steadily higher over the decades, suggesting investors and Thanksgiving dinner lovers alike have many things to be thankful for this year.”

    To everyone from the LPL Research team, have a great Thanksgiving!

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 11.17.17
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon
     
  7. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Here are the current pullback/correction levels as of this week ending-
    [​IMG]
     
  8. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the earnings chart posted in here as well once it's ready)

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 11.20.17 Before Market Open:
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    Monday 11.20.17 After Market Close:
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    Tuesday 11.21.17 Before Market Open:
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    Tuesday 11.21.17 After Market Close:
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    Wednesday 11.22.17 Before Market Open:
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    Wednesday 11.22.17 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Thursday 11.23.17 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED!)

    Thursday 11.23.17 After Market Close:
    NONE. (MARKETS CLOSED!)

    Friday 11.24.17 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 11.24.17 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Stockaholics come join us in our weekly market poll and stock picking competition for this upcoming trading week ahead!-
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty awesome to see some of you join us and participate!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Think the banks will hold the market up now...XLF being supported by 50 ma, BAC made a textbook bounce off it. A couple of them (GS, JPM) are in the Dow.
     
  11. Ken34

    Ken34 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    there has been some weakness in the xbi recently, lets see if the dip gets bought this week.
     
  12. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    And as promised here are the most anticipated ERs calendar for this upcoming holiday-shortened week ahead:
    ($LOW $CRM $BZUN $PANW $ADI $DLTR $DE $URBN $A $BURL $INTU $MDT $SBLK $BITA $VIPS $CPB $DSW $SIG $HPQ $GME $CBRL $HPE $HRL $GZT $ASYS $ZTO $INPX $GES $CPRT $CAL $QADA $SE)
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Lowe's Companies, Inc. $80.22
    [​IMG]Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.02 per share on revenue of $16.55 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.03 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 64% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 15.91% with revenue increasing by 5.15%. Short interest has decreased by 18.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 11.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 1.7% above its 200 day moving average of $78.92. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 17, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,345 contracts of the $82.50 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.7% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Salesforce $107.58
    [​IMG]Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, November 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.37 per share on revenue of $2.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.38 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.36 to $0.37 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 76.19% with revenue increasing by 23.56%. Short interest has increased by 11.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.6% above its 200 day moving average of $89.97. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 13, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,028 contracts of the $110.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.6% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Baozun Inc. $35.50
    [​IMG]Baozun Inc. (BZUN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:20 PM ET on Tuesday, November 21, 2017. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 96.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 9.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.1% above its 200 day moving average of $24.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 13, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,132 contracts of the $30.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. The stock has averaged a 8.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Palo Alto Networks, Inc. $142.72
    [​IMG]Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:10 PM ET on Monday, November 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.69 per share on revenue of $489.09 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.72 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.67 to $0.69 per share on revenue of $482.00 million to $492.00 million. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 213.64% with revenue increasing by 22.86%. The stock has drifted lower by 1.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.2% above its 200 day moving average of $131.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, November 16, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,793 contracts of the $160.00 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 10.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 14.1% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Analog Devices, Inc. $90.42
    [​IMG]Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Tuesday, November 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.37 per share on revenue of $1.50 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.42 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.29 to $1.43 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.48% with revenue increasing by 49.46%. Short interest has decreased by 17.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 10.8% above its 200 day moving average of $81.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 13, 2017 there was some notable buying of 10,554 contracts of the $82.50 put expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 2.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. $94.61
    [​IMG]Dollar Tree Stores, Inc. (DLTR) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 AM ET on Tuesday, November 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.90 per share on revenue of $5.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.92 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 77% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.83 to $0.90 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 11.11% with revenue increasing by 5.57%. Short interest has decreased by 13.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 15.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.6% above its 200 day moving average of $79.09. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 15, 2017 there was some notable buying of 3,075 contracts of the $92.50 call expiring on Friday, January 19, 2018. Option traders are pricing in a 6.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.3% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Deere & Company $135.77
    [​IMG]Deere & Company (DE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, November 22, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.43 per share on revenue of $6.91 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.52 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.13% with revenue increasing by 5.99%. Short interest has decreased by 14.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 17.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 13.3% above its 200 day moving average of $119.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, November 13, 2017 there was some notable buying of 13,511 contracts of the $140.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 5.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.3% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Urban Outfitters, Inc $27.90
    [​IMG]Urban Outfitters, Inc (URBN) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.33 per share on revenue of $857.48 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 43% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 17.50% with revenue decreasing by 0.58%. Short interest has increased by 37.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 27.0% above its 200 day moving average of $21.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 17, 2017 there was some notable buying of 4,237 contracts of the $28.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.9% move in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Agilent Technologies, Inc. $68.79
    [​IMG]Agilent Technologies, Inc. (A) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Monday, November 20, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.63 per share on revenue of $1.17 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.60 to $0.62 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 6.78% with revenue increasing by 5.31%. Short interest has decreased by 25.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 16.3% above its 200 day moving average of $59.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, November 17, 2017 there was some notable buying of 589 contracts of the $70.00 call expiring on Friday, December 15, 2017. The stock has averaged a 3.4% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]

    Burlington Stores Inc $104.73
    [​IMG]Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:45 AM ET on Tuesday, November 21, 2017. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.65 per share on revenue of $1.44 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.66 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.58 to $0.61 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 30.00% with revenue increasing by 7.25%. Short interest has decreased by 4.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 14.1% above its 200 day moving average of $91.81. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, November 1, 2017 there was some notable buying of 563 contracts of the $95.00 put expiring on Friday, March 16, 2018. The stock has averaged a 6.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
    [​IMG]
     
  13. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    Hope everyone has an awesome trading week!

    Remember the cash markets are closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day here in the states, and also have an early 1pm eastern close on Friday.

    Here is the Globex holiday schedule for this week for those that need to know:

    [​IMG]

    Happy early Thanksgiving everyone! :)
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Anyone not doing Thanksgiving?
    I already had one turkey dinner :cool:
     
  15. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.19.17
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  16. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  18. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    [​IMG]

    nice to see small caps finally taking out the oct. highs and joining in on these new market highs ... that is a pretty serious move off those recent lows
     
  19. Stockaholic

    Stockaholic Content Manager

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    coming up some big round #'s for those of you into that kind of thing (we used to have a member on the old forum by the name of "nowwhat" that was pretty big on them :p)

    dj30 closing in on 24k
    s&p right up on 2600 today
    nasdaq 7000 just about another 2% away ... pretty doable by EOY i think
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    SPX hit 2600 earlier today :p New ATHs for the 3 major indexes today :eek:
     

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