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Stock Market Today: November 25th - 29th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Nov 23, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of November 25th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: Hewlett Packard Enterprises, Palo Alto Networks, Agilent, Jacobs Engineering

    8:30 a.m. Dallas Fed manufacturing

    1:00 p.m. 2-year Treasury note

    7:00 p.m. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks on building on gains from long expansion, Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Best Buy, Dell, HP, DollarTree, Autodesk, Box, Hormel, VMWare, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Cracker Barrel, Bank of Nova Scotia

    8:30 a.m. Advance economic indicators

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing 9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices 9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    1:00 p.m. 5-year note auction

    1:00 p.m. Fed Governor Lael Brainard

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Deere, DouYu

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    8:30 a.m. Real GDP Q3

    10:00 a.m. Personal income

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    1:00 p.m. 7-year note auction

    2:00 p.m. Beige book

    • Thursday

    Thanksgiving Day

    Markets closed

    • Friday

    Black Friday

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stocks Suffer 'Shocking' Down Week As Fed Balance Sheet Unexpectedly Shrinks
    In case you wondered why stocks fell this week - after six straight weeks higher in the face of disappointing economic data - it's simple... The Fed balance sheet unexpectedly contracted for the first time in weeks.

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    It's been a mad week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Chinese markets were mixed with ChiNext and Shenzhen managing to cling to gains but the rest in the red as trade-deal hope faded...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As election uncertainty fades (Johnson looks like winning by a landslide), UK's FTSE was the only major EU stock market green this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    After six straight weeks higher (7 for Nasdaq), US equity markets stunningly closed red for the week... DO NOT PANIC!

    Trannies were the week's laggards with the rest of the US majors all down around 0.4% on the week...

    [​IMG]

    Stocks were shockingly red this week despite an epic short-squeeze today...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Nomura's Charlie McElligott warned (and nailed perfectly), gamma around S&P 3,100 was all that mattered this week for price action...

    [​IMG]

    Credit continues to decouple from stocks since the start of November...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    A mixed picture this week with the short-end of the curve higher in yield and long-end lower...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y Yields have collapsed in the last two weeks, back down to key support once again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Additionally, the 'breakout' of the year's down-trend channel in 10Y has failed to spark more selling (and it is hovering at the intersection of critical technical levels)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Treasury curve (3m10Y) has flattened a dramatic 20bps in the last two weeks (after 5 straight weeks of steepening), the biggest such flattening since May...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And the 2s10s curve has broken down from its uptrend channel...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As BMO's rates-desk notes:

    If the 2s/10s curve is unable to steepen above the YTD high of 30.8 bp or reinvert below the -6.6 bp low, this 37.4 bp zone will be the tightest annual rage in history. A fact all the more remarkable given that 10s themselves have traded in a 137 bp range. At a high level this indicates that a shift in the structural level of interest rates has been the dominating theme in 2019. Lower for longer reflecting middling growth prospects and concerns about monetary policy effectiveness are powerful influences in the background; the past 24 hours have been a decent case in point.

    And Treasury 'VIX' is testing back to its lowest since May...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar lurched higher today, pushing for recent highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As the dollar rallied, offshore yuan faded this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Crypto carnage after China cracks down on local exchanges...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bloodbath in Bitcoin this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Despite a rally in the dollar this week, commodities ended modestly positive (apart from gold's small drop)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI has traded in an upward channel for a while with chaotic trading this week to get back to $58 by the close...

    [​IMG]


    And finally, it's not the fun-durr-mentals...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    ...it's Fed liquidity, Stupid!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And don't forget, it has never cost more (1175 hours of 'average' work) to buy the stock market than it currently does...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Oh, and Mayor Pete is now beating Biden...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Big Year-to-Date Gains Through November Bode Well for December and 2020
    [​IMG]
    Going back to 1949 we are on pace for the 10th biggest year-to-date through November gains for the S&P 500 – and it’s a healthy sign for the rest of the year and next. We crunched the numbers for the S&P 500 YTD gains as of the end of November. Average YTD November gains are 7.4%. The list below shows the Top 21 YTD November that are all twice the average, which we felt best represents the current situation.

    Following Decembers and following years have had solid performance and average to slightly better than average results. After big YTD gains December is up 71.4% of the time with an average gain of 1.7% and the next year is up 81.0% of the time with an average gain of 9.9%. The reinforces our positive outlook for the rest of 2019 and 2020.
    [​IMG]

    Average Performance Nearly Doubles in Pre-Election Year Decembers
    [​IMG]
    December is now the number two S&P 500 month and the third best month on the Dow Jones Industrials since 1950, averaging gains of 1.5% on each index. It’s the top Russell 2000 (1979) month and third best for NASDAQ (1971) and Russell 1000 (1979). Last year DJIA suffered its worst December performance since 1931 and its fourth worst December going all the way back to 1901. However, the market rarely falls precipitously in December and a repeat of last year is not that likely. When it does it is usually a turning point in the market—near a top or bottom. If the market has experienced fantastic gains leading up to December, stocks can pullback in the first half.

    In pre-election years, December’s overall ranking remains about the same across the board however, average gains improve handsomely. DJIA averages 2.7%, S&P 500 2.9%, NASDAQ 4.3%, Russell 1000 2.9% and Russell 2000 3.1%. DJIA has advanced in 13 of the last 17 pre-election year Decembers. DJIA’s worst pre-election December was in 2015 when it declined a modest 1.7%. DJIA’s best pre-election year December was in 1991, up 9.5%.

    [​IMG]
    Trading in December is holiday inspired and fueled by a buying bias throughout the month. However, the first part of the month tends to be weaker as tax-loss selling and yearend portfolio restructuring begins. Regardless, December is laden with market seasonality and important events.

    Russell 2000 Q4 Best 20 Days
    [​IMG]
    We have been tracking seasonal market behavior for over five decades and have highlighted fourth quarter strength, holiday trading patterns and monthly trading patterns among other seasonal trading strategies for years.

    There has been a little twitter chatter of late about the old Russell 2000 4th Quarter Best 20 Days Strategy. Lore has is that the Best 20 Days of the 4th quarter for the Russell 2000 are the last two trading days of October, the first two of November, the last seven of November and the last nine of December.

    For perspective I have compare the Russell 2000 to the S&P 500 over these 20 “Best” Days. Russell 2000 does beat the S&P 500 with a cumulative median gain over these 20 days since 1979 of 4.6% and an impressive record of up 38 of the last 40 years, while the S&P 500 delivered a respectable median gain of 3.1%, up 37 of the last 40 years.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Don’t Fear Record Highs
    November 20, 2019

    “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffett

    The S&P 500 Index has trended higher in an unusually persistent fashion recently. The benchmark has notched 10 record-high closes over the past four weeks, including four straight through November 18.

    It’s human nature to get nervous when market conditions are too calm, especially with an uncertain outlook and an aging bull market. However, we urge investors not to lose sight of their goals.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the S&P 500 has consistently powered past record highs. Since 1950, the benchmark

    [​IMG]

    Stocks rarely move higher in a straight line, though. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has declined an average of 2% in the month after a record-high close. In 2018, the S&P 500 notched a record high September 20, only to fall nearly 20% by December 24. Volatility can be uncomfortable, and it can be difficult to stay focused on long-term prospects when prices are falling.

    Luckily, history shows that even the swiftest sell-offs don’t last forever. After the S&P 500’s nearly 20% slide in late 2018, it recouped all of its losses in the next four months. In 2011, the index dropped 19% from April to October before reaching new highs again in March 2012. The S&P 500 even found its way back to record highs after the 2008–09 financial crisis, nearly 5.5 years after its 2007 October peak.

    “Even though the path can be rocky, stocks have historically offered long-term opportunity for investors,” said LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “It’s important to stick to your investing plan in times of volatility and calm. We still view volatility as an opportunity for suitable long-term investors consider rebalancing portfolios or add to positions.”

    What Does the Market Know About the Consumer That We Don't?
    Thu, Nov 21, 2019

    In just about any economic discussion you read or listen to these days, there's one recurring theme- the strong consumer is picking up the slack. Strong consumer sentiment and generational lows in the unemployment rate are just two of many examples. A search of the term "strong consumer" on Google Trends also illustrates the strength of the consumer. While there's still another nine days left in the month, searches for the term "strong consumer" in November are on pace to be the highest in at least a year.

    [​IMG]

    So, we all agree that the consumer is strong. Right? Well, recently the market begs to differ. The chart below shows the relative strength of the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector versus the S&P 500 over the last year. When the line is rising, it indicates that the Consumer Discretionary sector is outperforming the S&P 500. However, when the line is falling it indicates that the Consumer Discretionary sector is underperforming, and underperforming is what the sector is doing now...in a big way. Even as the S&P 500 is up around 4% in the last month, the Consumer Discretionary sector is down 1%. While many traditional brick and mortar retailers that have fallen on hard times are in the sector because these stocks are already down so much, their weighting in the index has become very small. Meanwhile, stocks that have previously been big winners like Amazon.com (AMZN), Home Depot (HD), and McDonald's (MCD) are the sector's largest components. Does the market know something we don't?

    [​IMG]

    Trump vs. the Average Presidential Election Cycle
    Wed, Nov 20, 2019

    With year three of the current four-year Presidential Election Cycle coming to an end in six weeks, below is an updated look at the average performance of the S&P 500 in each year of the cycle going back to 1928. As shown, years one and two have historically been weaker than years three and four of the cycle. The S&P has been up 56.5% of the time in both year one and year two, but the index has been up 81.8% of the time in year three and 72.7% of the time in year four. Year three has been by far the best year of the cycle with an average gain of 12.81%, and the playbook has stuck to the script in year three of the current cycle with the S&P up 24.5% year-to-date. While year four has historically been consistently positive with gains 72.7% of the time, the average change for the S&P in year four (+5.71%) is just barely better than the average change in years one and two.

    [​IMG]

    Below we show the S&P 500 under Trump so far versus a composite of the S&P four-year Presidential cycle. The S&P gained 19.4% in year one of the current cycle versus an average year-one gain of 5.7%. Year two is historically the worst year of the cycle with an average gain of just 4.54%, and in Trump's second year, the S&P actually fell 6.2%. So far this year, the S&P is up 24.5% versus the average gain of 12.8% during year three of the cycle. As shown in the chart, year four generally trends positively but experiences pullbacks shortly after Q1 and again in October leading up the Election Day before closing out the year strong.

    [​IMG]

    Which of These Sectors is Not Like the Other
    Tue, Nov 19, 2019

    The S&P 500 is right at all-time highs, but if you look at your portfolio or a random list of stocks, with some of the winners there are bound to be some clunkers. Before getting too restless, though, it's important to keep in mind that not all stocks rally or decline in unison with each other. The chart below perfectly illustrates this. In it, we show the average distance that stocks in the S&P 1500 are trading with respect to their 52-week highs. For the S&P 1500 as a whole, stocks in the index are collectively trading an average of 16.2% from their respective 52-week highs. Large-cap stocks in the S&P 500 are the closest to 52-week highs at just a hair above 10%. Mid Caps are down an average of 14.8% while small caps have been the big laggard with stocks in the S&P 600 down an average of 22.2% from their 52-week highs.

    [​IMG]

    Small-cap stocks have been a laggard for the last year, and one of the key drivers of that weakness has been the Energy sector. The chart below shows how far stocks in the S&P 1500 are trading relative to their 52-week highs broken out by sector. It's not often that you see one sector as such a big outlier relative to all the others, but the Energy sector is in a league of its own these days. Stocks in the sector are more depressed than any other, trading down an average of 42.8% from their 52-week highs. Behind Energy, the next closest sector is Communication Services at an average of 22.7%. That's a spread of more than 20 percentage points between the two sectors with stocks furthest below their 52-week highs!

    While stocks in the Energy and Communication Services sectors are the furthest below their 52-week highs, sectors that are the closest include Utilities and Financials where the average stock in each sector is down less than 10% from their 52-week highs.

    [​IMG]

    12 Month, 3 Year, and 5 Year Asset Class Total Returns
    Tue, Nov 19, 2019

    The table below shows the total returns of various asset classes over the last twelve months, three years, and five years using key ETFs traded on US exchanges.

    The US Technology sector (XLK) has posted the strongest returns over all three time periods, with a 35.29% gain over the last year, a 93.06% gain over the last three years, and a 129.3% gain over the last five years. Looking at other sectors, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) has been the second best performer behind Tech over the three and five year time frames, while the new Communication Services sector (XLC) has been the second best over the last twelve months.

    On the negative side, the US Energy sector (XLE) is down on a total return basis over all three time frames. Energy is down 8.45% over the last year, 8.36% over the last three years, and 20.12% over the last five years. That's how a sector goes from having an S&P 500 weighting of 9% five years ago to a weighting of just over 4% now!

    Large-cap growth has been the best factor ETF over all three time frames by a large margin. The S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) is up 80.21% over the last five years. The next best of the size/strategy ETFs in our matrix has been Smallcap Growth (IJT) with a five-year total return of 64.12%. On the other hand, Midcap Value (IJJ) has been the weakest factor ETF with a five-year gain of 43.93%.

    Internationally, no country ETF in our matrix comes close to the 67.93% gain that the S&P 500 (SPY) has seen over the last five years. Russia (RSX) has been the best of the country ETFs over the five-year time frame with a gain of 42.13%, while France (EWQ), Japan (EWJ), and China (ASHR) rank second through fourth with gains between 38-40%. Mexico (EWW) and Spain (EWP) are both down over the last five years, while countries like the UK (EWU) and Canada (EWC) are only up by single-digit percentage points.

    Over the last year, it's a slightly different story with three countries (China, Italy, Russia) outperforming the S&P 500's 18.27% gain. Spain (EWP) has been the weakest country over the last year gaining just 2.11%.

    The broad commodities ETF (DBC) has been terribly weak versus other asset classes over all three time frames. DBC is down 3.09% over the last year, up just 6.49% over the last three years, and down 26.76% over the last five years. Most of the pain for commodities has been due to oil and natural gas price weakness. The oil ETF (USO) is down 57.88% over the last five years while the natural gas ETF (UNG) is down 78.27%! Gold (GLD) has been a positive outlier for commodities with gains of roughly 20% over each of the three time frames.

    Finally, fixed income ETFs have posted very strong returns given their risk averse characteristics. The widely followed 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 22.97% over the last 12 months, which is 4.7 percentage points better than the S&P 500 over the same time frame!

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 11.22.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for November 22nd, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 11.24.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
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  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
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  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 11.25.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 11.25.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 11.26.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 11.26.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 11.27.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 11.27.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Thursday 11.28.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.)

    Thursday 11.28.19 After Market Close:
    NONE. (U.S. MARKETS CLOSED IN OBSERVANCE OF THE THANKSGIVING DAY HOLIDAY.)

    Friday 11.29.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 11.29.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($BBY $MOMO $DLTR $DKS $BURL $OGI $HPE $PANW $ANF $DELL $ITRN $JEC $SOL $SR $VEEV $DE $AMBA $NTNX $NAT $KEYS $CBRL $A $VMW $ADSK $ADI $PVH $ARWR $HRL $BWAY $HPQ $GES $BNS $CAL $ESEA $ICLK $BECN $AMWD $BOX $TITN $TECD $CHS $MTSC $GBDC $DY $FRO)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Short week everyone, good luck!
     
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    so thurs. markets closed for t-day, and friday early closing at 1pm eastern i believe? they really ought to have made that a 2-day holiday with friday closed. that's tough. well i guess it's a good thing it is only open for a few hours :p

    as @T0rm3nted said, good luck everyone! i hope everyone has an awesome week. :D
     
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    market map @ 2pm eastern-

    looks like another new ATH for the major indices today. seems like absent any bad news (aka, black swan event) we'll see much of the same to end this holiday-shortened trading week.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    ETFC having a nice day after getting hammered last Thursday :eek: Bought at $42.11, probably taking profit by end of the day :p
     
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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah for those of you who might take this week off, an early Happy Thanksgiving :D Not really seeing any major catalyst to slam this market lower with just a few weeks off left rest of the year. Whether the new tariffs on China will go through next month will be the biggest event I guess, if those tariffs are delayed then I could see a pretty nice Santa Claus rally into end of the year :D
     
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    the small cap index finally broke out to a new 52wk high yesterday, but took more than a year to do so.

    [​IMG]

    evidently this bodes quite well for the russell, as when it has gone more than a year w/o making a new high and then prints one, it has been green a year later 10 of 11 times and higher on average +17% :eek:

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Small caps have really underperformed against the big caps :eek:
     
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