Thanks Cy, I am especially curious on how the market did when we switched from a Dems President to a GOP President
Techs are getting killed Banks up big again and the emerging markets are getting killed by strong dollar. The yields plays like consumer staples and utilities also not doing so hot either
Thanks Cy, you are helpful as always We did pretty poorly when we went from Clinton to Bush in Year 2000
Earnings after the close today: ($NVDA $DIS $ACIA $PTX $KORS $JWN $PBR $AMDA $AIRG $RUN $BUFF $VUZI $GKOS $IMUC $UNXL $MSCC $DAR $HEAR)
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/4036/political-indicators/revisiting-party-in-power-and-stock-returns/ The various combinations suggest that Republican control of the Senate may be most decisively favorable for U.S. stocks, with: Average performance strong when Republicans control the Senate. Outperformance (underperformance) under Democratic (Republican) presidents associated with Republican (Democratic) control of the Senate. We've got R-R-R, and that's generated 13.0% annually; the benchmark "All Years" is comparitively lower at 8.9%.
TGT and WMT doing good, they have pretty nice 2.5-3.5% yields. Brick-and-mortar stores not done yet, M and KSS having big days.
Let me give you guys a Baggi-ism you can take to the bank. Markets must be propped up during a Democrat administration. The chickens come home to roost during a Republican administration. My working theory is, the very large hedge funds fully expected a Hillary win. They weren't positioned for a large sell off. This is why the crash got bought up. They are positioning now. Be ready.
Baggi-So your theory is that being that the market assumed a HRC win that this is really just a suckers rally that the big guys are selling into? It has been quite a run up in the last 4 days! I would expect some sort of pull back, but how far-who knows??? I am just sitting on the sidelines at the moment waiting to see how it plays out.
Now you're just playing with words. Your initial investment is REAL MONEY. Your gains/losses are unrealized until locked in. Btw - markets didn't rise on one ambiguous speech where he didn't even talk policy. It's foolish to believe that.
Nobody knows at this point, give it a few more days and we will have a clearer picture. Obviously the real action starts when he moves into the WH and starts signing those bills.
Your initial investment was real money, before you traded it for equity in a company. These guys are not like us, they are so far removed from any initial investment of real money. Besides at that level you can't start thinking about all the real money you stand to lose, you would be paralyzed with fear. And I didn't say the markets rose on his speach, I said the markets rose on dip buyers, his speach added fuel to the fire, as did Clintons. If it makes me a fool for thinking that this market can rise or fall on a Trump speech or a FED comment, then so be it, that's what I think. It didn't always use to be this way, but such is the market now.
Buddy .... their jobs are on the line if they fuck away billions of dollars by pressing a buy button just because they can. There has to be a rhyme and reason that can be quantified/justified to the board. While they're not Revan sitting at his/her house day trading - their trading activities are still important. They just handle the rollercoaster better than you.
Kristi, I'm speaking longer term. The media loves a Democrat president. They forget how to do actual reporting. Democrat presidents can get away with changing "jobs created" to "jobs created and saved". They prop up Democrat administrations. This isn't a conspiracy. It's more like lemmings all running off the cliff together. None of them want to be the one to break the bad news during a Democrat administration. A Republican administration is almost the complete opposite. Not only do they see the bad news, the stress it. On many conservative websites over the last 8 years, the joke was on the word "unexpectedly" and how often that would pop up in news articles about bad economic news. During trumps administration many in the media will see it as their job to report the awful, terrible, no good, truth. And that truth will be bad. Bad bad bad. Homelessness will be terrible. Medicine terrible. Debt terrible. Wars. Suffering. Etc. And this will drive fear, which will drive the markets lower. I'll be investing with this in mind. Slowly building a short position as we move up in the near term and taking profits as we head down.
Jobs on the line, that is the funniest thing I have heard all day. Where the hell were you in 2007 or 1999, or 1987? These guys don't push the button thinking they are gonna lose. The market dropped severely, they saw an oppurtunity that they thought would pay off and reverse the panic selling, they pulled the trigger and he we are. Some of them genuinely think Trump the business man will be good for the economy and some of his pro growth and deregulation policies would be in my opinion. But the reason that the market feared Trump before the election is that he is unpredictable, impulsive, and the market hates uncertainty. But for now the market has decided to accentuate the positive and ignore the negative. I suspect things will change when he is in the white house and gets back to being Trump.
I find it funny that the media kept talking about how bad it would be for stocks if Trump was elected or it was a Democrats sweep, but they hardly talked about how good or bad it would be for stocks if it was a GOP sweep
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