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Stock Market Today: October 12th - 16th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Oct 9, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 12th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Columbus Day observed

    Bond market closed, stock market operating on normal hours

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, Citigroup, BlackRock, Fastenal, First Republic

    6:00 a.m. NFIB small business survey

    8:30 a.m. CPI

    2:00 p.m. Fiscal year 2020 federal budget

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth, US Bancorp, PNC, Alcoa, United Airlines, Accolade

    8:30 a.m. PPI

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Morgan Stanley, Truist Financial, Walgreens Boots, Commercial Metals, Taiwan Semiconductor, Intuitive Surgical

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    8:30 a.m. Empire state manufacturing

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing

    5:00 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

    • Friday

    Earnings: Bank of NY Mellon, Citizens Financial, Kansas City Southern, Schlumberger, JB Hunt, Ally Financial, VF Corp

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales

    8:30 a.m. Business leaders survey

    9:15 a.m. Industrial production

    9:45 a.m. New York Fed President John Williams

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    10:00 a.m. Business inventories

    4:00 p.m. TIC data
     
    Onepoint272 and T0rm3nted like this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stimulus-Hyped Short-Squeeze Sparks Best Week For Stocks In 4 Months, USD Dumps
    Between Fed promises and stimulus hype, the market keeps powering higher...

    Since Trump's flip-flop on negotiating a COVID relief deal, stocks and gold have surged back and the dollar has weakened...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Dow 28,538 was the 2019 close...

    [​IMG]

    On the week - the best for Small Caps since June - the Trump tweet dip is along-lost memory now...

    [​IMG]

    All thanks to the biggest weekly short-squeeze in 2 months (and 'most shorted' stocks have squeezed higher for 10 of the last 11 days)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Banks soared in their best week since June...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Airlines flip-flopped more than Kamala Harris, but ended the week notably higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Biggest 2-week drop in the USD in 4 months...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Chinese yuan soared today as they came back from Golden Week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos chopped around this week, but ended higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    With Bitcoin back above $11,000...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields were higher on the week, with the curve steepening (30Y +9bps, 2Y +2bps)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But notably, the big move was Monday and since then 10Y Yields have largely traded in a tight range...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Best week for WTI since June, eased off a little late on after Norway oil sector strike was called off...

    [​IMG]

    Gold, meanwhile, has concluded that the now-imminent debt binge will indeed crush the dollar, sending capital pouring into safe havens. This sent gold to its best day since Aug 17th...

    [​IMG]

    Copper also had a big rebound this week...

    [​IMG]

    Finally, don't worry about this...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Or this...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And before everyone writes off President Trump's chances, he is positioned considerably better against Biden than he was against Hillary at the same point...

    [​IMG]

    So what happens next?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Ten-Baggers Under Trump
    Fri, Oct 9, 2020

    In our prior post we looked at the best and worst performing S&P 500 stocks since Election Day 2016. In this post we've broadened our filter and looked at the Russell 3,000, which is an index that covers more than 98% of all publicly traded market cap in the US. Within the Russell 3,000, there are 32 stocks that are up more than 1,000% since Trump was elected. These 32 "ten-baggers" -- as Peter Lynch liked to call them -- are listed in the table below.

    At the top of the list is Enphase Energy (ENPH), which is up 8,892% since Election Day 2016. While Enphase has "Energy" in its company name, it's actually a Technology sector stock that "manufactures software-driven home energy solutions that span solar generation, home energy storage and web-based monitoring and control." Next up is Zynex (ZYXI) with a gain of 7,211%, followed by Digital Turbine (APPS) up 5,320%. ZYXI markets itself as a "better and safer way to manage pain" than opiods using electrotherapy devices. APPS is an app marketing company that helps app developers get their product on as many devices as possible.

    Of the 16 best performing Russell 3,000 stocks since Election Day 2016, 15 come from either the Technology or Health Care sectors. XPEL is the only stock in the top ten that's not in either the Tech or Health Care sectors. Up 2,341% since Trump was elected, XPEL is a Consumer Discretionary stock whose main product is to provide auto-paint protection.

    Along with the names mentioned already, other notables on the list of ten-baggers under Trump include Jack Dorsey's Square (SQ), pet-food maker Freshpet (FRPT), digital health company Teladoc (TDOC), the arts and crafts social media company Etsy (ETSY), and of course, Tesla (TSLA). With a gain of 1,002% since November 8th, 2016, Tesla just barely makes the cut!

    [​IMG]

    Best Performing Stocks Since Election Day 2016
    Fri, Oct 9, 2020

    On Monday we published our asset class performance matrix showing total returns for key ETFs since Election Day 2016 (11/8/16). Today we wanted to highlight the individual stocks traded on US exchanges that have performed the best and the worst since President Trump surprised the world with a victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. First off, below is a chart showing the average performance of stocks in each S&P 500 sector since Election Day 2016. (These are based on stocks currently in the index and not as the index stood on 11/8/16.)

    As shown, the average stock in the broad S&P 500 is up 67.3% since Trump was elected. Four sectors have posted stronger average returns than that -- Technology (+160.4%), Health Care (+100.3%), Consumer Discretionary (+74.6%), and Industrials (+69.9%).

    The Energy sector stands out like a sore thumb in the chart below. While every other sector has at least averaged double-digit percentage gains, the stocks in the Energy sector are down an average of 52.3% since Trump was elected! Other sectors that have been weaker than the broad market include Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Financials.

    If you were to ask most people back in November 2016 which areas of the market should outperform under Trump and which should underperform, you'd likely see results that are the exact opposite of what has actually happened. Sectors like Energy, Real Estate, and Financials would have been expected to benefit from Trump since those are the industries he's most associated with, while Tech is a sector that's usually expected to benefit more when the Democratic party is in control.

    [​IMG]

    Looking at individual stocks, below we show the 46 stocks currently in the S&P 500 that are up at least 200% since Election Day 2016. Two stocks -- Etsy (ETSY) and Advanced Micro (AMD) -- have been "10-baggers" with gains of more than 1,000%, while another three -- Paycom (PAYC), NVIDIA (NVDA) and DexCom (DXCM) -- are up more than 500%. Other names on the list are a who's who of the most popular stocks over the past few years, including Adobe (ADBE), Netflix (NFLX), Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), salesforce.com (CRM), and PayPal (PYPL).

    [​IMG]

    While there are 46 stocks in the S&P 500 up more than 200% since Election Day 2016, there are 32 stocks that are down more than 50% over the same time frame. The Energy sector is the most represented on this list by far with 14 stocks overall and 10 of the worst 11! The only non-Energy stock in the top ten is General Electric (GE), which is down 76% since Trump was elected. Other notable losers include airlines and cruiselines like AAL, CCL, and NCLH, and consumer stocks like TAP, KHC, UAA, WBA, and LB.

    General Electric (GE) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are the two names that stand out the most. Each of these stocks were at one point in time the largest company in the world, but they're both now shells of their former selves with huge losses over the last four years. Remember these two examples when you're looking at the largest companies in the world right now. Chances are a few of them will experience similar fates as GE and XOM over the next ten to twenty years.

    [​IMG]

    News High for Net New Highs
    Fri, Oct 9, 2020

    Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed at its highest level since only a few days after the early September high. While the index has yet to reach a new high, many individual stocks in the index have. As shown in the charts below, 11.71% of S&P 500 stocks closed at a new 52-week high yesterday while no stocks closed at a new 52-week low. That makes for the second-highest net new highs reading of the pandemic with the only higher reading (17.62%) occurring just over a month ago at the last all-time high on September 2nd. Before that, the last time net new highs were as high as now was on February 19th: the last all-time high before the bear market began.

    As for the individual sectors, there has also been a significant pickup in the net percentage of new 52-week highs. Industrials currently has the highest reading of net new highs among the 11 sectors at 26%. Just like the broader S&P 500, that is the highest since September 2nd when the net percentage of new highs rose above 30%. Consumer Discretionary is the runner up in being the sector with the highest percentage of net new highs. One distinguishing factor, though, is whereas every other sector has seen higher readings at some point since the bear market in the spring, Consumer Discretionary's current reading of 18% is tied with the reading from August 24th. On the other end of the spectrum, both Communication Services and the Energy sector have seen no new highs over the past few days. Granted, there have not been any new 52-week lows either. Meanwhile, Financials and Real Estate have both seen an uptick in net new highs, but it has been much more modest than other sectors.

    [​IMG]

    Breadth Booming
    Thu, Oct 8, 2020

    One of the most notable aspects of the rally off the late September lows has been broad participation. As shown below, breadth is very strong as the 10-day advance-decline lines for several sectors are at some of their highest levels of the past year. For the S&P 500, the 10-day advance-decline line is at its highest level since June 8th. The same can be said for Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Real Estate. For Consumer Staples, the sector's 10-day A/D line is at its highest level since June of 2019 and for Health Care it is at its highest level since May of 2019. In the case of Technology, it has been even longer as that sector's line is at its highest level since last April.

    While broad participation is healthy for the long-term prospects of a rally, these 10-Day A/D lines have gotten extremely overbought in the near term, suggesting a cool-down period is likely in the days ahead.

    [​IMG]

    With short term breadth running very hot, the cumulative A/D lines of several sectors are breaking out to new highs as well. Utilities and Materials are the only sectors to have seen prices reach a new high in the past few days alongside their cumulative A/D lines. As for the other sectors, Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Health Care, Materials, and Tech have also all seen new highs for cumulative breadth. The same applies to the S&P 500, but again, none of these have yet to see price do the same.

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Election-Year October Market Performance Volatile since 1950
    [​IMG]
    October’s history of volatility was recapped in the October Almanac as well as it being the worst performing month of election years since 1950. In the following chart we have plotted election-year October performance for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 since 1950 (NASDAQ since 1972 and Russell indexes since 1980) alongside their historical performance excluding gruesome election-year October 2008.

    With or without October 2008, historical performance has been uninspiring in election years. Excluding 2008, October has generally started off on a positive note, but by around the fourth trading day, strength has tended to fade with weakness persisting until around the eighth trading day. Then a modest rally ensued through mid-month followed by more weakness and finally a rally to end the month. Grey shading highlights the two historical windows of weakness that could setup our Seasonal MACD indicators.
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.9.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 10.9.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for October 9th, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.11.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 10.12.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 10.12.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 10.13.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 10.13.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Wednesday 10.14.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.14.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.15.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.15.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 10.16.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 10.16.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Onepoint272 likes this.
  10. JCooper

    JCooper New Member

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    As always.... Awesome info!
     
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  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Seems like this market wants to go higher :eek: Whether we will get a stimulus doesn’t seem to matter anymore at least for now :p
     
  13. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    The thing that has me worries in the DIX is still below 40-45%. This means to me that institutions aren't the ones fueling the buying. JMHO - I'm waiting it out to see which shoe drops first.
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    AAPL and AMZN surging, Prime day and the release of new iPhone coming up
     
  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I'm enjoying these AAPL gains today
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Pot stocks up huge again, stocks like CGC and APHA having a very good day :eek:
     
  17. AverageJoesTrades

    AverageJoesTrades Well-Known Member

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    DIX recording 36.6% today - same as back in March. GEX rocketed to 11b. Something is about to happen...
     
  18. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  19. BigPear

    BigPear New Member

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    iphone12's new AR feature is likely to be added, sources said.
     
  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    In SQQQ from 19.50.
    Hoping to make a buck today.
     
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