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Stock Market Today: October 21st - 25th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Oct 19, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 21st!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings before the bell: Halliburton, SAP, Lenox Intl., PetMed Express

    Earnings after the bell: Cadence Designs, Celanese, TD Ameritrade, Zions Bancorp (530p cc)

    • Tuesday

    8:30 a.m. Philadelphia Fed nonmanufacturing (Oct)

    10 a.m. Existing Home sales (Sept)

    Earnings before the bell: Biogen, Lockheed Martin, McDonald’s, NextEra Energy, Novartis, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, UBS, United Tech., UPS

    Earnings after the bell: Texas Instruments, Canadian Natl. Railway, Chipotle Mexican Grill, CoStar, Discover Fincl., Equity Residential, Snap, Whirlpool

    • Wednesday

    7 a.m. Weekly mortgage applications

    10:30 a.m. EIA weekly inventories report

    Earnings before the bell: Boeing, Boston Scientific, Caterpillar, Daimler, Eli Lilly, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Blackstone, Freeport-McMoRan, General Dynamics, Hilton, Invesco, LG Display, Nasdaq OMX, Norfolk Southern

    Earnings after the bell: eBay, Ford Motor, Microsoft, PayPal, Tesla

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Weekly jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods orders (Sept)

    9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI (Oct flash)

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI (Oct flash)

    10 a.m. New Home sales (Sept)

    Earnings before the bell: 3M, AstraZeneca, Comcast, Danaher, Dow, Equinor, Raytheon

    Earnings after the bell: Amazon.com, Gilead Sciences, Intel, Vale, Visa

    • Friday

    10 a.m. Consumer sentiment (Oct final)

    Earnings before the bell: A-B InBev, Ambev, Barclays, Charter Comm., Eni, Verizon
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Dow Dumps On Talc-Turmoil, Boeing-Bust, & Pence-Panic
    China's economy slumps, JNJ's talc asbestos fears, Boeing in deep water over text messages, VP Mike Pence readies to unleash on China, but trade-deal hope did rise on the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Global stocks and bond yields were up this week, but the latter rolled over today,

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    All things considered...


    Chinese stocks ended the week in the red, slammed after last night's weak data...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Mixed week in Europe as Brexit headlines dominated, with France the laggard, UK's FTSE managing gains...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    European bond yields have run this week with Bunds at their highest since late July...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    From the cliff of the US-China trade deal last Friday, The Dow was the week's worst performer (as Small Caps and Trannies managed gains)...

    [​IMG]



    The Dow was weighed down by Boeing and Johnson & Johnson (accounting for all of the points lost today)

    [​IMG]



    S&P 500 was unable to hold 3,000 once again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    VIX was totally chaos today...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields ended the week mixed with the long-end underperforming... NOTE - the week's big price action was on Tuesday (back from the Columbus Day holiday), after which, rate went sideways...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y Yields hovered at last Friday's highs...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar is down 7 of the last 8 days (4 days in a row this week), worst week since June (down 3 weeks in a row - worst 3-week drop since January)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cable was higher all week as Brexit deal headlines were optimistic...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Very mixed picture for cryptos this week with Ripple up notably and Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins lower...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Bitcoin ended the week back below $8k...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Despite the plunge in the dollar, commodities were barely positive on the week and crude was notably weaker...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold tagged $1500 during the week but could not hold it - today's price action really coiled up...

    [​IMG]



    WTI fell back to close the week at a $43 handle...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, we wonder if this has anything to do with the dollar run and stock drop?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And the SMART money is starting to decouple...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And amid all this, uncertainty has never, ever been higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    The Calendar Could Have Bulls Smiling
    October 16, 2019

    “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” — Mark Twain

    Stocks have continued their surprising strength in October, thanks to a potential thaw in the U.S.-China trade dispute. And remember, the S&P 500 Index has been lower in October during a pre-election year only once since 1987. Additionally, over the past 20 years, October has been the third-best month on average for the S&P 500. October has had a bad rap due to some spectacular crashes, but the truth is the month usually is pretty good for stocks.

    “The calendar could be about to turn into a bull’s best friend, as late October has been when stocks historically started their end-of-year rally,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “No two years are ever the same, and we all remember last year’s sell-off. However, a better than expected earnings season, coupled with positive steps on trade and one more Federal Reserve rate cut this year could allow bulls to smile the rest of 2019.”

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, we are very near the historically strong end of year for equities. Whether you look at the average year or a pre-election year, stocks have tended to deliver an upward bias starting soon.

    [​IMG]

    Buy in October, and Get Yourself Sober
    [​IMG]
    Folks have become fixated with “Sell In May” but forget to “Buy in October, and Get Yourself Sober.” Our Best Six Months MACD Buy Signal that triggered last Friday, October 11th, initially appears to be timely. Friday’s Alert detailed several trades that were deployed Monday and updated in a follow up Alert on Monday. In addition to the Seasonal Sector ETF trades and the Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy Portfolio trades in DIA, SPY, QQQ and IWM we released a New October Stock Basket yesterday!

    As you can see in the chart below of the S&P 500 the MACD “Buy” indicator trigger in the lower pane, highlighted in the yellow box with the black arrow, came in strong below the zero line. In the upper pane resistance at 3010 still persists. Aside from this resistance technically things look encouraging. We held support last August above 2815 and have been making higher lows since then, riding the 200-day moving average higher. The 50-day moving average has also constructively turned higher.

    As we have been monitoring all year, seasonal patterns for the Pre-Election remain on track, though the October dip came early. Save some truly negative news, the low for the year is likely in. With the market tracking this seasonal pattern so closely all year that suggests the pattern is likely to continue, which means some backing and filing around S&P 3000 through late November before additional new highs toward yearend.
    [​IMG]

    Bonds Bounce Back In Fund Flows Data
    Fri, Oct 18, 2019

    The week ended October 9th saw relatively large inflows into bond funds and relatively large outflows from equity funds. Across all mutual and exchange traded funds, equity flows were in the 7th percentile of all readings since 2013, with outflows of $11.5bn. Of that total, $5.8bn was ETFs, with the lion’s share of equity fund outflows coming from domestic funds. As has so frequently been the case lately, bond funds were the exact opposite situation. Total bond fund flows across mutual funds and ETFs meant $5.8bn of new cash on the week, which is in the 64th percentile of all periods. ETFs were relatively stronger, with bond funds drawing $1.9bn of inflows, higher than more than 81% of periods since 2013. Within both ETF and combined mutual and ETF flows, municipal bonds were the standouts, with total flows in the top 10% of all periods. Since 2013, $152bn has flowed into mutual funds and ETFs that own municipal government bonds, with more than $90bn of that coming since the end of 2017. Those flows are very likely being driven by tax-advantaged buying incentivized by the changes to the tax code at the end of 2017 which ended a variety of popular state and local tax deductions.

    [​IMG]

    ISM Offsides, If Not Utterly Incorrect
    Fri, Oct 18, 2019

    This week’s manufacturing activity releases from the New York Fed and Philly Fed showed a slightly weaker but generally upbeat assessment of economic activity. The numbers from these two regional surveys may not be fully representative of the aggregate national economy, but they’re usually a pretty good indicator. As shown in the chart below, they’ve been a decent guide to what the ISM Manufacturing index says about national activity since the Empire State manufacturing index started its releases in 2001.

    Unlike these two indices, which have shown a general uptick in activity over the last few months, the ISM index shows a different route. But that data isn’t backed up by the average results across the five Fed districts that survey their manufacturers. The size and scale of the divergence is so big that one of these indices is almost certainly wrong, but which?

    For a tiebreaker, Markit’s manufacturing survey suggests conditions are at multi-month highs and picking up, more consistent with the data from Fed surveys than ISM. Markit’s sample size is bigger and the index is more representative of the whole sector than ISM only; with all five regional Fed surveys in the mix, they also have a sample size advantage over ISM. Hard data of late (including manufacturing production, exports, and hiring) has all sided against ISM and is showing data more consistent with the Five Fed or Markit surveys. For now, it looks like the brutal ISM results are a bit overstated.
    [​IMG]

    Moving Abroad?
    Fri, Oct 18, 2019

    While the title may suggest it, this isn't a political post geared towards Democrats who can't stand President Trump or Republicans fearing the prospect of a President Warren or Sanders. What we're talking about here is what could be early signs of a break in the nearly decade long trend of international stocks underperforming equities in the United States. The first chart below shows a long-term look at the relative strength of the MSCI Ex-US Index versus the S&P 500 going back to 1999. When the line is rising, it indicates outperformance on the part of international stocks (ROW), and when it is falling, US equities are outperforming.

    While the first several years of this century were dominated by outperformance on the part of international stocks at the expense of the S&P 500, that trend reversed with the Global Financial Crisis as international stocks had given up all of their outperformance by 2012, and then continued to lag going forward. The lower chart shows a closer look at the relative strength between the two indices over the last year. Here, it has been mostly more of the same. Outside of a brief surge during the Q4 market rout late last year, ROW has underperformed the S&P 500 for pretty much all of 2019. That is up until recently. Since late August, the relative strength line of the ROW has actually been drifting higher. Granted, it's not a major shift at this point, but you have to start somewhere, and as of now ROW's relative strength is near a four-month high.

    [​IMG]

    Nasadaq - One Downtrend Down, Another To Go
    Fri, Oct 18, 2019

    In a post yesterday, we discussed the seemingly never-ending rangebound trading pattern for the STOXX 600. It's not just Europe either. Seemingly everywhere you look these days, there's a major equity index stuck in some sort of range. The Nasdaq is just one example of many. At a level of around 8,140, the Nasdaq is at the same level it was at exactly six months ago and also all the way back in August of last year.

    Last week at this time, things were looking good for the Nasdaq as the index had bounced off of support at its 200-DMA and broke its short-term downtrend from the September lower high. This week has seen further gains with the Nasdaq rising more than 1%, but that rally looks to have stalled out yesterday right at another downtrend from the July high. A meaningful break of that downtrend would come into play at around 8,200 which is just over half of one percent above current levels. Using our Trend Analyzer tool, of the 100 stocks in the Nasdaq 100, heading into today, 43 were overbought and just five were oversold, so it may take a few days of 'rest' for the index before a meaningful break of that downtrend can occur.

    [​IMG]

    Rangebound on Both Sides of the Atlantic
    Thu, Oct 17, 2019

    Everyone here is well aware of the fact that equities have been stuck in what seems like an endless trading range where the S&P 500 has failed to break out meaningfully to new highs. What some investors may not be of cognizant of is the fact that over in Europe, the benchmark STOXX 600 has also been stuck in a trading range of its own. While the index peaked at higher levels in 2015, it subsequently fell over 25% during the global sell-off in late 2015/early 2016. From those lows, the STOXX rallied more than 30% for the next 15 months. Since May 2017, though, the index has been stuck in a range and unable to meaningfully break out to new highs.

    This year's performance for the STOXX 600 has been a continuation of the holding pattern that the index has been stuck in since 2017. Earlier today, it looked as though we were getting close to a breakout as the index hit a 52-week high, but late in the European session equities sold-off nearly 1% from the intraday highs finishing near the lows of the day. Oh well. Maybe tomorrow.

    What bulls in Europe are hoping is that today's late-day sell-off isn't a repeat of what happened on July 25th. Back then, we saw a similar-looking breakout, but like today, the gains didn't hold and the STOXX 600 reversed over 1% and finished near the lows of the day. From the high on the day of that failed breakout in late July to the August lows, the STOXX 600 went on to fall nearly 9%.

    [​IMG]

    S&P 500 Sector Valuations
    Thu, Oct 17, 2019

    The S&P 500's trailing 12-month P/E ratio has ticked up to 19.62 recently, which is close to its highest level of the past year. For valuations to stop expanding on any breakout higher for the S&P, we'll need to see earnings (the "E" in P/E) keep up with price. That's going to be a tough ask for corporate America this quarter, so we may be heading into 2020 with valuations at more concerning levels.

    [​IMG]

    Below are one-year charts of P/E ratios for ten S&P 500 sectors. These charts are included in our weekly Sector Snapshot report sent to Bespoke Premium members. Consumer Discretionary has the highest P/E ratio at 24.15 followed by Technology at 23.38. Tech's P/E has really jumped a lot recently to new 52-week highs. The Financial sector has the lowest P/E of the major sectors at just 13.27.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Open Season For Small Caps
    [​IMG]
    There’s been chatter for many moons about the under performance of small cap stocks recently. True they have been under performing since the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks hit its all-time high close over a year ago on August 31, 2018. However, the trend of under performance tracks the historical small cap seasonality quite well.

    With the Russell 2000 up a fraction today as the major U.S. large indices were down a bit from our historical seasonal pattern perspective this looks like the beginning of the bottom of small cap under performance and the beginning of the new “Small Effect.”

    As you can see in the accompanying chart the R2K has been tracking the pattern quite well since July and looks like the small fry are coming out of hibernation just in time for small cap stock hunting season.

    See page 110 of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2019 and page 112 of the soon-to-be released 2020 edition for deep background.

    October Back on Track – Earnings Season Ramps Up
    [​IMG]
    After a bumpy start, the market is back on track at the mid-point of October. DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are slightly above average at this point in the month compared to the last 21-year historical average. NASDAQ is comfortably above average and continues to lead. Negative headlines have given way to more upbeat news. Trade headlines are now featuring some progress even though tariffs remain in place and third quarter earnings season is underway with a solid report from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) today. Provided economic data and corporate earnings hold up, the market is likely to continue its run toward all-time highs and October could end with above average gains.
    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.18.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for October 18th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.20.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
    (VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 10.21.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 10.21.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 10.22.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 10.22.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.23.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.23.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.24.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.24.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 10.25.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 10.25.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
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  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AMZN $MSFT $TSLA $SNAP $MCD $BA $HEXO $TWTR $PYPL $PG $LMT $CLF $HAL $V $CMG $UPS $CAT $SAP $BIIB $INTC $AMTD $UTX $F $NOK $HAS $CNC $MMM $LII $JBLU $WM $SHW $SKX $IRBT $HOG $ANTM $NEE $XLNX $HMST $KMB $VZ $BX $CBU $TXN $ALGN $NOW $RTN $BMRC)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Good luck this trading week everyone!
     
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  14. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    market map as we head into the afternoon session on this monday:

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stuck in Neutral
    Mon, Oct 21, 2019

    Even after taking into account Friday's weakness, it was mostly a positive week for the US last week as all of the major index ETFs with the exception of the Dow Jones (DIA) were up. As shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer tool, outside of the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), every major US index ETF is kicking off the week in neutral territory. Not a terribly exciting backdrop but it's one you would expect in an environment where equities have been stuck in a seemingly never-ending range.

    [​IMG]

    Just about every major US index ETF is stuck in neutral, but sector performance has varied a bit more. Last week, Energy (XLE), Technology (XLK), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Utilities (XLU) were all down, while Health Care (XLV) rallied more than 2%. In most cases, the performance of individual sectors last week involved some reversion as Health Care has been one of the weaker sectors YTD and Technology, Consumer Staples, and Utilities have been leaders. In the case of Energy, though, it has just been a continuation of the weak trend. Coming into this week, Energy is the only sector below its 50-day moving average and to make matters worse, its timing score in our Trend Analyzer tool is 'Poor'. With crude oil prices trading down nearly one percent again this morning, the sector still faces a pretty stiff headwind. While the major averages are stuck in a range, Energy has been in a seemingly never-ending downtrend.

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Looks like tech and banks doing well today. Too bad I don’t own any bank stock anymore after selling JPM a few months ago :p
     
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  17. Three Eyes

    Three Eyes 2018 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Street is liking bank earnings so far. Slew of good ones this morning, too.

    I'll be curious about UPS tomorrow morning in light of FDX disappointment last month, especially since retail shipping is somewhat a bellwether for consumer spending. UPS option action and premiums have been skewing towards upside so far today...
     
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  18. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Transports have been green 9 days in a row and was a leader today. But now facing technical resistance.
    [​IMG]

    My guess is UPS doesn't really surprise in light of FDX. But it's important that they hold solid, maybe give good guidance, just don't get flat out rejected tomorrow.
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    S&P 500 Average Performance by Weekday: 2019
    Mon, Oct 21, 2019

    Below is an updated look at the average performance of the S&P 500 (SPY) by weekday so far in 2019. As shown, Monday has been the only day of the trading week that has averaged a decline so far this year, but Tuesday has bounced back with an average gain of 0.12%. Wednesday has seen a small gain of 0.04%, but Thursday and Friday have both been very solid days this year. Thursday has seen the S&P average a gain of 0.16%, while Friday has closed out the week with an average gain of 0.17%. For all days this year, SPY has averaged a gain of 0.09%. That's all you need per day to get to a 20% YTD gain through 10.5 months.

    [​IMG]

    We can break the day out by opening gap versus open to close change as well. By opening gap, we mean SPY's change from its prior day's close to its next open. The open to close is the change from SPY's opening price at 9:30 AM ET to its closing price at 4 PM ET. The opening gap and the open to close change combine for SPY's full one-day change.

    As noted above, Monday has been the only trading day of the week this year to average a decline. As shown below, all of that decline has come at the open of trading on Monday. SPY has averaged a gap down of 0.06% at the open on Mondays, but it has averaged an open to close gain of 0.02%. On Tuesdays, we've seen a reversal of Monday's trend. SPY has averaged an opening gap of 0.12% on Tuesdays in 2019 and then a flat open to close.

    Wednesday has averaged a flat open and a gain of 0.05% from the open to the close, while Thursday has averaged a gap up of 0.03% and a further gain of 0.13% from the open to the close.

    Friday has seen strength at the open with an average gap higher of 0.11%. Intraday action on Fridays has been strong as well with an average open to close gain of 0.07%. With all the strength on Friday, investors haven't been worried about holding equities over the weekend this year even with all the concerns over trade and geopolitical issues. They do come into the new trading week with some worries, though, given the Monday gaps down.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    Watching BIIB tomorrow.
    It reports in the morning, and it is at the bottom of the range 220-240 which it has inhabited for half the year. If it drops, then you could see a lot of investors abandoning ship.
    [​IMG]

    However, LABU was strong today and it too is at the "bottom"
    [​IMG]

    If BIIB bounces here, then we could see biotechs able to take a lead carrying the market. And I've got an eye on ALXN, DVAX, OPK. Opko reported postive Ph 3 results for a human growth hormone study yesterday.
     
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