When Do Markets Get Volatile? After the S&P 500 Index’s least volatile third quarter since 1963, October has ushered in a wave of volatility: Daily moves in excess of 1% now feel like the norm. Here’s what you need to know about volatility: It tends to happen when the S&P 500 is in a downtrend and beneath the 200-day moving average. For example, the S&P 500 gained more than 7.0% in the third quarter and did not gain more than 1% in a single day. In contrast, the S&P 500 has gained more than 1% three times already this month, but it is still down 7.2% so far in October. The 200-day moving average is simply the average close of the previous 200-day trading days. This is a long-term trendline that many investors use to determine if stocks are in an uptrend or downtrend, but history has shown that the most volatility tends to happen beneath this trendline. “Big moves tend to happen beneath the 200-day moving average,” said LPL Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “In fact, 23 of the 25 largest one-day rallies for the S&P 500 took place beneath the 200-day moving average.” As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, the majority of the largest gains and losses took place beneath the 200-day moving average. With the S&P 500 currently beneath this important trendline, more volatility could be in store for investors.
also just posting up next week's earnings whispers calendar in case i'm unable to get around to it later today as i have a fairly busy day ahead-
INTC having a good day, may be signalling a sentiment turnaround for chip stocks. I thought these guys were supposed to be having trouble with their supply/product line?
Good luck I am not playing it since I kinda worry that it could be a sell the news event. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Brazilian market rallying next Monday though if the far-right guy wins
I just read an article calling it an unbeauty contest lol. Didn't know they were doing it this Sunday. Evidently there was a round 1 already where the far-right guy won. Calls look good.
Yea there was a move up to 40 after the first round, the price has been unnaturally steady just under 40 since then...The only thing that worries me, and this would speak to Stock1234's point about it being a sell the news event, is that the implied volatility has come down a lot since first round election. Of course this makes it cheaper to buy options outright, it also means there is less of move expected. Well just have to see!
