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Stock Market Today: October 26th - 30th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Oct 23, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 26th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    Earnings: HCA Healthcare, Hasbro, SAP, Otis Worldwide, Twilio, Boyd Gaming, F5 Networks, National Oilwell Varco, NXP Semiconductor, TrueBlue, Chegg

    10:00 a.m. New home sales

    10:30 a.m. Dallas Fed manufacturing

    • Tuesday

    Earnings: Microsoft, 3M, Caterpillar, Merck, Pfizer, Aflac, Novartis, Chubb, Advanced Micro Devices, JetBlue, Xerox, Restaurants Brands International, Eli Lily, BP, HSBC, Centene, Stanley Black and Decker, Polaris, Harley-Davidson, Invesco, Raytheon, Crocs, Corning, Cummins, S&P Global, Franklin Resources, Hubbell, Akamai, FireEye, Lattice Semiconductor, Denny’s, Edison International, First Solar, Terex, Varian, Juniper Networks

    8:30 a.m. Durable goods

    9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

    9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

    10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

    10:00 a.m. Housing vacancies

    • Wednesday

    Earnings: Boeing, General Electric, Amgen, Gilead, Ford, eBay, Etsy, UPS, Blackstone, Mastercard, Anthem, Boston Scientific, Fiat Chrysler, General Dynamics, Norfolk Southern, Deutsche Bank, CME Group, Masco, Sealed Air, Tradeweb Markets, Generac, Texas Roadhouse, Ameriprise, Fortune Brands, Pinterest

    8:30 a.m. Advanced economic indicators

    • Thursday

    Earnings: Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook, Comcast, Twitter, MGM Resorts, Starbucks, Kellogg, Dr. Pepper, Ralph Lauren, Activision Blizzard, ConocoPhillips, Kraft Heinz, Shake Shack, Archer Daniels Midland, Devon Energy, Ethan Allen, Avis Budget, Cheesecake Factory, Hartford Financial, Stryker, Flex Cabot Oil, U.S. Steel, Mohawk Industries, Anheuser-Busch Inbev, Avis Budget, Illumina, Yamana Gold, IMAX

    8:30 a.m. Initial claims

    8:30 a.m. Real Q3 GDP

    10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

    • Friday

    Earnings: Honeywell, Chevron, Colgate-Palmolive, Under Armour, Abbvie, Altria, Charter Communications, Phillips 66,Weyerhaeuser, Newell Brands, Booz Allen, CBOE Global Markets, Total, Lear

    8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending

    8:30 a.m. Employment cost index

    9:45 a.m. Chicago PMI

    10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment
     
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  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stimulus Stalemate Sparks Slump In Stocks, Bonds, Oil, & The Dollar
    Day after day the algos excited pumped and dumped stocks on the back of 'hope' and 'nope' headlines about the next round of COVID-19 relief from Washington. By the end of the week, stocks were down, bond (prices) were down, oil was down, the dollar was down, and economic data was down...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But all stocks care about is their next "feed" of free money...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    But apart from that everything is awesome...





    Small Caps and Trannies managed gains on the week, Nasdaq underperformed...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    FANG stocks fell for the second week in a row...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And semis chipwrecked for a second week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Interestingly, defensives and cyclicals tracked each other all week as everything was top-down stimulus-on/stimulus-off swings...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Significant weakness in momo stocks this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    "Most Shorted" stocks were squeezed Thursday and Friday back to unch on the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    In fact, as yields rose on the week (rallying back lower somewhat today)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Pushing yields to their highest since early June...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The curve rose to its steepest since July 2017...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Real Yields rose notably on the week but as the chart shows, gold decoupled...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar extended its decline (down for the 3rd week in the last 4)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    On the bright side, BANKS were bid as the yield curve steepened...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And BITCOIN soared back above $13,000...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Oil prices tumbled on the week, with WTI futs closing below $40...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, this is what the 'experts' are panicking about?!!

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And if some more context for this terrifying killer pandemic is also required...

    Covid deaths in context pic.twitter.com/ZxeQVZtmw0

    — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 23, 2020
     
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  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Nasdaq vs. Dow Outperformance
    Fri, Oct 23, 2020

    You may not realize it, but while the Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up a ridiculous 28% so far in 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still in the red on the year.

    Below is a table showing the Dow and Nasdaq's annual percentage change since 1972 when the Nasdaq came into existence. Were the year to end now, the Nasdaq would be outperforming the Dow by 28.65 percentage points. This would be the third strongest outperformance for the Nasdaq on record and the strongest since 1999 when the spread was 60 percentage points!

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Below are all years since 1972 in which the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by at least ten percentage points. The Nasdaq has posted an annual gain of 20%+ in seventeen different years, but never in a year when the Dow was in the red. Probably the year that most resembles 2020 in terms of the performance spread is 1979 when the Nasdaq rose 28.11% and the Dow rose just 4.19%. Following that year in 1980, both the Dow and Nasdaq surged again and the Nasdaq outperformed by another 18.9 percentage points.

    Interestingly, of the twelve years where the Nasdaq outperformed the Dow by more than ten percentage points, the Nasdaq went on to beat the Dow again in the next year eleven out of twelve times. The only time we've seen the Nasdaq crumble versus the Dow in the following year was in 2000 after 1999's outperformance. In 1999, the Nasdaq beat the Dow by a humongous 60 percentage points. After that large gap, though, the Nasdaq ran out of gas in 2000 and underperformed the Dow by 33 percentage points when the Dot Com Bubble finally burst.

    [​IMG]

    Leading Indicators Show Slowing Pace of Economic Recovery

    The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Beige Book presented qualitative data that suggested the pace of the economic recovery had been tapering, as we discussed in the LPL Research blog, Beige Book Shows Pace of Recovery is Moderating, but now we have quantitative data that is confirming the survey data. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.7% month over month in September to beat Bloomberg consensus expectations of 0.6%, but slowed after rising 1.4% in August and 2% in July.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, the leading indicators are still growing, but at a slower rate than the blistering pace seen in the initial months after emerging from lockdowns.

    [​IMG]

    Growth in the LEI in September was primarily driven by the improvement in jobless claims, as well as continued strength in building permits for new private housing—a trend that matches the behavioral shifts to accommodate work from home conditions during the pandemic. The pullback in stock prices last month and manufacturers’ new orders were the lone detractors from the LEI in September.

    “It comes as no surprise that growth began to level off after the surge over the summer, and the softer LEI print is suggesting the economy could be losing momentum heading into the fourth quarter,” said LPL Chief Investment Officer Burt White. “However, despite the slowing momentum, we still expect solid economic growth in Q4, just not quite at the same rate in Q3.”

    The decline in manufacturers’ new orders is likely in relation to election uncertainty, which should prove transitory. However, the recent rise in COVID-19 cases in both Europe and the United States may cause business activity to slow, even if no additional lockdowns are mandated. As we head into the fourth quarter, we will continue to monitor real-time data for any additional clues about the pace of the economic recovery.

    Halloween Trading Strategy: S&P 500 Up 85% of the Time
    [​IMG]
    Next week provides a special short-term seasonal opportunity, one of the most consistent of the year. The last 4 trading days of October and the first 3 trading days of November have a stellar record the last 26 years. From the tables above & below:

    Dow up 77% of the time, 20 of last 26 years, average gain 2.05%.
    S&P up 85% of the time, 22 of last 26 years, average gain 2.11%.
    NASDAQ up 85% of the time, 22 of last 26 years, average gain 2.67%.
    Russell 2000 up 77% of the time, 20 of last 26 years, average gain 2.31%.

    Many refer to our Best Six Months Tactical Seasonal Switching Strategy as the Halloween Indicator or Halloween Strategy and of course “Sell in May”. These catch phrases highlight our discovery that was first published in 1986 in the 1987 Stock Trader’s Almanac that most of the market’s gains have been made from October 31 to April 30, while the market tends to go sideways to down from May through October.

    Recent market weakness has held off our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal so far, but it could trigger anytime now. Uncertainty abounds with surging covid-19 cases, a heated presidential election and persistently elevated unemployment. However, each day that passes is one day closer to a covid-19 vaccine. Interest rates are low and ample liquidity is available to support the market and the economy. Additional fiscal stimulus also appears to be coming soon. Debate continues on the amount, but both parties do appear to agree it is needed in one form or another.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    "Quitters"
    Wed, Oct 21, 2020

    Like an old pair of "quitters" that keep falling down because their elasticity is shot, the market has had its own trouble staying up over the last few trading days. Today isn't over yet, but if the S&P 500 finishes around current levels it will mark the fourth straight day of finishing down at least half of one percent from its intraday high. Compared to the three days before, today's pullback from an intraday high has actually been pretty mild up to this point. Following Monday's 2%+ decline from the intraday high shortly after the open, yesterday, the S&P 500 traded down close to 1% from its afternoon high. These two reversals followed Friday's late-day sell-off when the S&P 500 finished the day down 0.75% from its intraday high.

    [​IMG]

    While it's disheartening to see the market erasing early gains as the day goes on, it's helpful to put the last four trading days into perspective. Over the last 25 years, it hasn't been uncommon for the S&P 500 to finish the day down at least 0.5% from an intraday high for four days in a row. The current streak, if it holds, would be the 158th such streak of four or more days. That works out to more than six a year. There have also been a number of streaks that were much longer than the current one. In fact, it was only a month ago that the S&P 500 went 11 straight days of finishing the day down at least 0.5% from its intraday high, and besides that streak, there have been five other streaks that spanned ten or more trading days.

    [​IMG]

    October Optimism For Homebuilders
    Mon, Oct 19, 2020

    Given housing inventories remain historically low thanks to still strong demand, homebuilders have plenty to be optimistic about. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has continued to show this strength as its monthly sentiment survey set a record high for the month of October. Back in August, the index tied the previous record level of 78 from December of 1998. Over the past two months, it has only raised that bar, coming in at 85 this month; 2 points above forecasts and last month's reading of 83.

    [​IMG]

    The rise in the index comes on broad strength across each of the sub-indices. Present Sales, Future Sales, and Traffic all matched or made record highs in October. The only sub-index that was not higher was for Traffic, though, it was unchanged at a record high.

    [​IMG]

    As for the look across each of the four US regions, the West and Northeast both saw sizeable upticks to new records, but sentiment in the Midwest and South were actually slightly lower. For the Northeast, this is the third record in a row. Meanwhile, the West's record high in October finally surpassed the prior high of 91 from October of 2005. Finally, even though sentiment fell in the Midwest and South, both remain at higher levels now than any month other than September's record highs.

    [​IMG]
     
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  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.23.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 10.23.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Stock Market Analysis Video for October 23rd, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.25.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 10.26.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 10.26.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 10.27.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 10.27.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.28.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.28.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.29.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.29.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Friday 10.30.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 10.30.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    And finally here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead-
    ($AAPL $AMZN $MSFT $AMD $UPS $FB $SHOP $BA $HAS $PFE $SMPL $MMM $TWLO $GE $FSLY $PINS $NOK $TWTR $MRNA $CHGG $ETSY $SAP $CAT $LGND $FVRR $SPOT $GOOGL $LLY $GILD $RTX $TDOC $OSTK $V $ATVI $MA $XOM $ABBV $HCA $SHW $F $NVS $NRZ $MRK)
    [​IMG]

    If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here-
     
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  10. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    SI blew away EPS estimates this morning.
    Sounds like Silvergate Bank deals in cryptocurrency?

    About Silvergate

    Silvergate Capital Corporation is a registered bank holding company for Silvergate Bank, headquartered in La Jolla, California. Silvergate Bank is a commercial bank that opened in 1988 and has been profitable for 22 consecutive years. The Bank has focused its strategy on creating the banking platform for innovators, especially in the digital currency industry, and developing product and service solutions addressing the needs of entrepreneurs. The Company’s assets consist primarily of its investment in the Bank and the Company’s primary activities are conducted through the Bank. The Company is subject to supervision by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the “Federal Reserve”). The Bank is subject to supervision by the California Department of Business Oversight, Division of Financial Institutions and, as a Federal Reserve member bank, the Federal Reserve. The Bank’s deposits are insured up to legal limits by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.
     
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  12. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market selling off today :eek: With the number of cases spiking, no stimulus and the election uncertainty, etc. My guess is we won’t see that much of a significant upside until we get the election results
     
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  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Agreed. I had plans to fully exit before the election. Looks like I waited too long.
     
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  14. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    Ok. I entered long at SPX 3375 today. I had mentioned my interest last week that if the SPX collapsed non-above 3410, I'd be interested.
     
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  15. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    I don't know when to precisely exit at this time, but I am in a "profit-taking" mode and so I have to assess via my theory of trading
     
  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    AMKR with a good report AH. Initiating a dividend.

    CHGG looks like it double-topped; going down AH.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    View attachment 15096 View attachment 15097 nasdaq.png this is not consultation or advice.
    I think that the situation about covid 19 in the world has influence on the markets.
    Indices:
    Dow :
    Dow was first to indicate down movement few days ago.
    I wrote in previous post on Dow, that Wow show weakness, and
    breaking the blue line will bring it to meet the blue line (high probability).
    Well Dow go under the blue line, but the candle that we see, show that some thing stop
    the bearish movement.
    usually the price should go down to meet the red line, but in this case I think
    Its better to wait and see what will happen tomorrow.

    Nasdaq:
    Nsdaq stop on the blue line, if it go under the blue line, there high probability that
    the price will meet the red line.
    if the price stay above the blue line' there high probability that the price will
    meet the green line.

    S&P500:
    S&P500 didn't go below the blue line, the candle that we see, show that some thing stop
    the bearish movement.
    I think S&P500 go back up, and all indices will follow.

    Lets see what happen tomorrow.
    View attachment 15087 View attachment 15088 View attachment 15089
     
    #17 EddieMarkel, Oct 26, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
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  18. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    Dow.png nasdaq.png View attachment 15095 this is not consultation or advice.
    I think that the situation about covid 19 in the world has influence on the markets.
    Indices:
    Dow :
    Dow was first to indicate down movement few days ago.
    I wrote in previous post on Dow, that Wow show weakness, and
    breaking the blue line will bring it to meet the blue line (high probability).
    Well Dow go under the blue line, but the candle that we see, show that some thing stop
    the bearish movement.
    usually the price should go down to meet the red line, but in this case I think
    Its better to wait and see what will happen tomorrow.

    Nasdaq:
    Nsdaq stop on the blue line, if it go under the blue line, there high probability that
    the price will meet the red line.
    if the price stay above the blue line' there high probability that the price will
    meet the green line.

    S&P500:
    S&P500 didn't go below the blue line, the candle that we see, show that some thing stop
    the bearish movement.
    I think S&P500 go back up, and all indices will follow.

    Lets see what happen tomorrow.

    View attachment 15090 View attachment 15091 View attachment 15092
     
    #18 EddieMarkel, Oct 26, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
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  19. EddieMarkel

    EddieMarkel Member

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    all indices create "cup handle" pattern
     
  20. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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