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Stock Market Today: October 29th - November 2nd, 2018

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Oct 27, 2018.

  1. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Good find ADA. I'm still a believer this is just a correction. Big boys were just running out of investment opportunities with everything being at a high. Drive everything back down for the next leg up.
     
  2. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    Today's candle does not provide much bullishness so far.
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Yeah, that's my thinking as well.

    In addition, as I had mentioned on Post #24 here, we're entering what is at least "historically" a favorable period for the market.

    I think STA (Stock Trader's Almanac) first coined this phrase -- "Best Six Months". Which starts in November and ends in April.

    Not to get politics involved, but evidently the "Best Six Months" is even stronger after a midterm year.

    Not gonna bore y'alls out with historical market statistics like I always seem to do in here daily lol, but I thought this was an interesting chart to share that I stumbled across yesterday. In the past 18 midterm years, the SPX has gained from the Oct. "closing" low until EOY a perfect 18 for 18 and has been up on average just a little under +11%, whereas every other year (non-midterm year) is up about a little over +7% on average off the Oct. low.

    [​IMG]

    It's probably a tall order to see the markets rip about +20% from current levels to end the year up double digits, so I'm not sure we'll be hitting that average to a tee, but it does go to show that once we start hitting those seasonal periods, things really begin to settle down.

    With Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner, they don't call it a Santa Claus Rally for nothin' :p

    I realize the "Sell in May and Go Away" or "Worst Six Months" didn't quite pan out this year, so we'll have to see if the same were to hold true for the "Best Six Months".

    My feeling is that we'll see a nice year end run once this correction has played itself out. I suspect beginning after the midterms.

    Just my 2c.
     
    anotherdevilsadvocate likes this.
  4. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    I would be really surprised if we enter into a prolonged bear market too. The midterm next Tuesday probably will help to put some uncertainty away. My guess is the market will be ok as long as the Dems don’t take both the Senate and the House (that’s my guess, I could be dead wrong :p)

    FB earnings after the bell. Tech and the FANG trades have really weakened lately, so I think it could have some pretty big impacts on at least how tech stocks will trade tomorrow
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  5. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    NASDAQ is up pretty nicely but interesting to see some of the biggest Wall Street darlings like AMZN, MSFT, and NFLX all down almost 2% :eek:
     
  6. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    My worthless opinion...

    With no recession in sight I don't see a bear market coming, but I believe the markets are acting more on the interest rates and trade wars. I think the markets will find a range (maybe lower maybe higher) and trade there until it is all worked out. I don't think we are talking weeks, more like quarters.

    The FED is unwinding and raising. Even if they pull back on the rate hikes, rates could easily run on them as they are unwinding their balance sheets and deficits suck up more and more free capitol.

    There is an argument that when China, Canada, (fill in your country) finds other non US suppliers that those customers are lost for a long time regardless of whether or not we make up with the respective countries.
     
    Jrich, stock1234 and bigbear0083 like this.
  7. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    Yeah with higher interest rates and the ongoing trade tensions, I think the good time that the market just go straight up with low volatility probably is gone. The economy and earnings could be peaking soon too if not peaking now. Not saying the market can’t go up, but it probably will be with a lot more ups and downs and volatility.
     
    Steven_Burt likes this.
  8. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    We could avoid a bear market, but a big chunk of the rest of the world is already in a bear market so...those places could experience a double bear market in the next couple years.

    @bigbear0083 I've seen that stat. Something to have confidence in, 18-for-18 up quarters.
     
  9. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    ESRX looks good going into tomorrow's ER. Think it will gap to new high, but will not chase far after that.
    Relative strength chart, monthly
    [​IMG]
     
    T0rm3nted and bigbear0083 like this.
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    It's been 28 days since S&P has had back-to-back up days. Longest streak since the 1930s.
    Not really a helpful fact, but illustrates that this down move has been relentless.
     
    stock1234 and T0rm3nted like this.
  11. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    Catching a falling knife, but I like INCY here
     
  12. Steven_Burt

    Steven_Burt Well-Known Member

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    Do you know if money is moving out of those markets into ours? or into safety? That would be interesting information.
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    I wonder how often the divergence between us and rest of the world happened in the past :p
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    I don't know, but it is interesting I agree.
     
  15. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    My theory says, at this point, a retrace to the 2800 level is in the works. Buying at the 2600 level is excellent. But, I still believe that the 2850 level is possible.
     
    bigbear0083 likes this.
  16. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Good morning to all. Happy Halloween!

    Here is this morning's pre-market stock movers & news thread for those of you wanting to get a quick read before today's open-
    [​IMG] <-- click there to read!

    Hope everyone has a great trading day ahead today.
     
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    whelp, today is month end trading.

    here is a quick look at the major indices for the week, month, quarter, year (as of yesterday's close) as we close out the trading month of oct. today-

    [​IMG]

    NASDAQ still looking at its largest monthly decline since post-Lehman :eek:

    let's see if the SPX can avoid its first ever Oct. without 2 consecutive up days.

    so far futures are pointing to a higher open...the ADP job report this morning was a pretty nice beat.

    edit: here is a quick look at the indices pullback & correction levels (as of thursday's close) as well-

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    whelp, this trading month of oct. is almost over

    and what a month was it for market volatility :eek:

    [​IMG]

    after having gone 75 consecutive ttrading days without a +/-1% closing change, we almost went the entire month of oct. with only +/-1% closing changes :p

    as Marcy (@anotherdevilsadvocate) mentioned yesterday, we've gone 28 consecutive trading days without back-to-back up days in the SPX (the longest since the great depression)

    [​IMG]

    but looks like that streak ends today, absent a late date purge into the close today.

    today could also mark the first time since post-BREXIT (june 2016) that we have back-to-back +1.5% or greater closing changes.

    it's pretty rare to see an entire month without said back-to-back up days, the last time that happened was back in may of 2010.

    [​IMG]
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stock Picking Contest Winner

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    Still a terrible month, but at least the market closing this month with 2 strong days in a row unless we get the EOD selloff here today :p

    I guess AAPL earnings and the jobs report will be the big events rest of the week, and next Wednesday could be really interesting after the election next Tuesday :D
     

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