Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: October 5th - 9th, 2020

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Oct 2, 2020.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of October 5th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    9:45 a.m. Services PMI

    10:00 a.m. ISM nonmanufacturing

    10:45 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans

    3:15 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

    • Tuesday

    8:30 a.m. International trade

    10:00 a.m. JOLTS

    10:40 a.m. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at NABE

    • Wednesday

    1:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

    2:00 p.m. Fed minutes

    2:00 p.m. New York Fed President John Williams

    2:15 p.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari

    2:40 p.m. Kashkari, Bostic, and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren on panel

    3:00 p.m. Consumer credit

    3:00 p.m. New York Fed’s Williams

    3:20 p.m. Boston Fed’s Rosengren

    4:30 p.m. Chicago Fed’s Evans

    • Thursday

    8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

    • Friday

    10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade
     
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    Tech Turmoils After 'Positive' POTUS, Jobs Jolts, And SoftBank Squeeze

    An ugly week for 'hard' real data in the US but 'hope' hit a two year high as 'soft' data outperformed...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Small Caps exploded higher this week (pumped-up 6 of last 7 days) and best week in 2 months as Nasdaq lagged (but all were higher on the week)...

    [​IMG]

    It's not the economy or fundamentals, it's the stimulus handouts, stupid!

    [​IMG]

    Source: @AWMCheung

    Because, COVID or not, Jobs or not, Fiscal stimulus or not, Biden or not, you gotta look on the bright side of life, right?







    [​IMG]

    Nasdaq underperformed Russell 2000 by the most since May today as we suspect market-makers stomped on the throat of Softbank's gamma-squeezers...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    And we note that Nasdaq VIX spiked hardest at the open and was the most aggressively bid today...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Notably, Nasdaq spec shorts collapsed by 40% but the index only managed marginally positive gains on the week (was Softbank trying to ignite a short-squeeze?)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    "Most Shorted" Stocks are up 6 days in a row (squeezed)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Some spurious comments from Pelosi on Airlines bailouts sparked a bid in that sector, but it faded somewhat as details were missing...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    FANG Stocks were lower today but up on the week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Treasury yields ended the week higher, driven by two rather notable spikes, seemingly sparked by stimulus optimism (and refused to unwind on reality)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    10Y Yields spiked up to 70bps and stalled again...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The Dollar erased about half of last week's gains this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos were lower this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI was clubbed like a baby seal this week but Silver surged...

    [​IMG]

    WTI ended with a $36 handle on the week, erasing all of the recent rebound gains...

    [​IMG]



    Finally, the 1930s analog remains in place...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2020-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    Make Up Your [email protected]#$%^&* Mind!
    Fri, Oct 2, 2020

    You: Where do you want to go for dinner tonight?
    Them: How about Italian?
    You: Sure, sounds good.
    Them: I also heard that new Greek place is good.
    You: I'm fine with that.
    Them: No, we can do Italian.
    You: K.
    Them: If that's what you want to do.
    You: You're the one that suggested it.
    Them: But you were quick to agree.
    You: OK. Let's do Greek then.
    Them: I guess that's fine.
    You: Perfect.
    Them: But I was in the mood for Italian. You always pick.
    You: I didn't pick anywhere and don't care. Just pick a place.
    Them: Well if you are going to argue about it, I don't want to go.
    You: Seriously?
    Them: Goodbye.
    You: Fine.
    Them: Fine!

    We've all had versions of this conversation where you or the person you were talking to just couldn't make up their mind. At the end of the day, it only causes trouble and plans are ruined.

    The market is having its own back and forth this year trying to decide between growth and value. Just today, growth stocks are getting slaughtered while value stocks are up marginally. As an example, the Russell 1000 Growth index is down 1.8% on the day while the Russell 1000 Value index has managed to rally 0.25%. The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the Russell 1000 Growth index and the Russell 1000 Value index for each day in 2020. Today's performance spread between the two indices marks the ninth time this year that value has outperformed growth by more than two percentage points. At the other extreme, there have also been eight trading days where growth outperformed value by more than two percentage points.

    [​IMG]

    So how does this year's frequency of days where the performance spread between the two indices was more than two percentage points stack up to other years? The chart below shows the daily performance spread between the two indices going all the way back to 1990. Over the last thirty years, the only two periods where we saw a frequency of these large daily dislocations was back in 2008 and the period spanning 2000 and 2001. In fact, with 17 days this year where the performance spread between the two indices was greater than two percentage points, the only other years that saw a higher frequency of large dislocations were 2000 (54) and 2001 (28). If you think the market has been indecisive this year, in 2000 we saw these types of daily dislocations an average of once per week.

    [​IMG]

    Election Anxiety Weighs on October Market Performance
    [​IMG]
    October often evokes fear on Wall Street as memories are stirred of crashes in 1929, 1987, the 554-point drop on October 27, 1997, back-to-back massacres in 1978 and 1979, Friday the 13th in 1989 and the 733-point drop on October 15, 2008. During the week ending October 10, 2008, Dow lost 1,874.19 points (18.2%), the worst weekly decline in our database going back to 1901, in percentage terms. March 2020 now holds the dubious honor of producing the worst, second and third worst DJIA weekly point declines. The term “Octoberphobia” has been used to describe the phenomenon of major market drops occurring during the month. Market calamities can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, so stay on the lookout and don’t get whipsawed if it happens.

    But October has become a turnaround month—a “bear killer” if you will. Twelve post-WWII bear markets have ended in October: 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998, 2001, 2002 and 2011 (S&P 500 declined 19.4%). However, eight were midterm bottoms. Over the last 21 years, October’s performance has been solid. Average gains over the last 21-years range from 1.3% by Russell 1000 to 2.4% by NASDAQ. Small caps have still struggled though with Russell 2000 gaining a modest 0.5%
    [​IMG]
    Election-year Octobers rank dead last for Dow, S&P 500 (since 1952), NASDAQ (since 1972), Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 (since 1980). Eliminating gruesome 2008 from the calculation provides a moderate amount of relief, as rankings climb to mid pack. Should a meaningful decline materialize in October it is likely to be an excellent buying opportunity, especially for any depressed technology and small-cap shares.

    What Have Democratic Sweeps Meant for the S&P 500?
    Wed, Sep 30, 2020

    Headed into the first presidential debate Tuesday night, betting markets (ElectionBettingOdds.com) placed Democratic candidate Joe Biden as the slight favorite to take the White House in November. The debate resulted in Biden gaining another 5 percentage point chance of winning the Presidency. As of this morning, Biden's odds to win are at 59.8% versus Trump's odds of 38.9%. Additionally, Democrats are slight favorites to win control of the Senate (58.4% to 41.5%) and big favorites to maintain the House (82.8% to 17.1%). Given these odds, in the chart below we show the average performance of the S&P 500 from the three months before Election Day through three months after Election Day for all election years post-WWII that resulted in a sweep of the executive and legislative branch by the Democrats.

    As shown, on average the S&P 500 has been on the decline in the weeks leading up to Election Day, though in the days just before the Election there has been a small rally that sharply reverses once the results come in. After the initial post-Election drop, the market has trended a bit higher, but by three months after the Election, it has only found itself around the same levels as Election Day; on average a 2.6% loss versus where the index stood three months prior.

    [​IMG]

    The composite shown above is comprised of six different years: 1948, 1960, 1964, 1976, 1992, and 2008. While on average the S&P 500 has traded lower, it is not necessarily a sure-fire thing. For example, 1948 and 2008 were the only years that saw the S&P 500 trade and stay significantly lower in the wake of the election. In 1976, there was similarly a sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the election, but the index did make its way back up to the highs of that six-month time frame later on albeit no new high was put in place. Meanwhile, 1960, 1964, and 1992 all saw the S&P 500 run higher after the election even despite some periods of consolidation after initial moves higher. In our B.I.G. Tips report from Tuesday, we show these same charts for all Presidential election years post WWII including a look at the average performance given every potential election outcome.

    [​IMG]

    How Current Returns Stack Up to History
    Thu, Oct 1, 2020

    Even after September's weakness, the S&P 500's trailing 12-month total return stood at an impressive 14.9%. Given the events of the last 12 months, one could even say that performance is remarkable. What's even crazier is that the S&P 500's performance over the last 12 months is more than three times stronger than the 12 month period before that (+4.25%). The chart below compares the S&P 500's annualized total returns over the last one, two, five, ten, and twenty years and compares that performance to the historical average return of the index over those same time periods.

    The S&P 500's historical average 12-month return is 11.7%, so the current 14.9% gain exceeds that average by more than three full percentage points. Over a two-year window, though, the S&P 500's annualized return of 9.4% is more than a full percentage point below the historical average. Looking further out, the S&P 500's trailing five and ten-year annualized return has been much stronger than average, which makes sense given the long bull market we were in. Over a 20 year window, though, the S&P 500 is only just starting to work off some of the declines from the dot-com bust and as a result, the 6.4% annualized gain is a four and a half percentage points below the long-term average of 10.9%.

    [​IMG]

    Below we show how the current performance of the S&P 500 in each of the time frames shown compares to all other periods on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's performance over the last year, ranks just below 56th percentile of all other periods, while the two-year performance ranks just below the 42nd percentile. Even as the five and ten-year periods have seen well above average returns, they still rank in just the mid-60s on a percentile basis. The S&P 500's ranking over a 20-year time period is a completely different story ranking in single-digits on a percentile basis. Even with the equity market right near record highs, the last two decades have been forgettable for US equities.

    [​IMG]

    Seasonals Are Back In Style Again
    [​IMG]
    There is no denying that market seasonality has not worked so well this year. But we have been here before and history is on our side. Over the long term, intermediate term and short term market seasonality has suffered brief periods when seasonality was overridden by more powerful forces. The COVID pandemic and economic shutdown certainly qualifies. But it is only a matter of time until repetitive human behavior patterns and people and institutions return to moving money around in the usual daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and seasonal patterns.

    The return of perennial September weakness is emblematic of a return to normal market behavior and a reflection of the fact that despite the continuing concerns about surges in coronavirus cases life is beginning to return to normal. In our area, about 25-30 miles north of New York City, our kids are beginning hybrid learning, playing rugby, lacrosse and other sports (yes with some COVID protocols, but tackling and facing-off), golf outings are happening and people are going to restaurants and out and about.

    The chart here shows the historical One-Year Pattern of the S&P 500 Since 1950 versus 2020. The black line shows the seasonal pattern since 1950. The blue represents the pattern since 1988. We use 1988 as it is the first year after the 1987 Crash when the market underwent a major systemic change with the implementation of downside protection circuit breakers and collars. It is noteworthy how the seasonal pattern persists during both the 70-year and 31-year timeframes.

    2020 is plotted on the right axis due to the magnitude of the move this year. The yellow box highlights the rebirth of seasonality this September, especially during this notoriously negative Week After Triple Witching Week as detailed page 108 of the 2020 Almanac, indicated by the two black arrows

    Years like 1980, 1982, 2009 and 2016 with unseasonably early weakness and bear markets like 2020 returned to normal seasonal patterns in short order. And years like 1954, 1958, 1980, 1982, 1995 and 2009 that exhibited double-digit gains in the Worst Six Months still proceeded to deliver further sizable gains in the subsequent Best Six Months (page 52, STA 2020). We believe the return of market seasonality is upon us. So remain cautious through the end of September and be alert to Octoberophobia, but remain ready to pounce on our Best Months Seasonal MACD Buy Signal, when it triggers.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 10.2.20-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    Here are the current major indices rally levels from correction low as of week ending 10.2.20-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    Stock Market Analysis Video for October 2nd, 2020
    Video from AlphaTrends


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 10.4.20
    Video from ShadowTrader
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 10.5.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Monday 10.5.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Tuesday 10.6.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 10.6.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.7.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 10.7.20 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.8.20 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 10.8.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.

    Friday 10.9.20 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 10.9.20 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    23,428
    Likes Received:
    8,470
  10. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    2,789
    Trump took a Regeneron antibody drug.
     
  11. The Brontide

    The Brontide Active Member

    Joined:
    May 15, 2020
    Messages:
    285
    Likes Received:
    112
    I am surprised of the complacency of the markets overall with all this news the last two days after the markets opened. There was activity off hours but they all mostly rebalanced during the day..

    It is like the markets already priced it in or are just waiting for the Senate to pass the support bill.

    I dunno.
     
  12. Vdubman

    Vdubman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 2, 2016
    Messages:
    545
    Likes Received:
    302
    Markets will be based off trumps health this week. Poor health markets down. Good health markets up.
     
  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    2,789
    Indexes currently up +1.3 to 1.6%.
    VIX still up nearly 4%.

    Funny enough, QQQ is the leading index right now by % change, but it is the one that has not taken out last week's high yet.
     
  14. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    2,789
    XBI and IBB trending upwards today, even though REGN is chopping around right now.
     
  15. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    2,789
    Bulls want to hit QQQ 280 to keep this going.
     
  16. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,699
    Likes Received:
    4,406
    Doctors will have update on Trump at 3 pm, we will see if it will move the market :D
     
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,699
    Likes Received:
    4,406
    Got into SNOW and AMWL last Friday, so far so good :D
     
  18. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,166
    Likes Received:
    2,789
    Fine goal line defense by the bears of QQQ 280. About the only thing they got for themselves today.
    Now the funny thing about R1 resistance is it can become a target at the end of the day (opponents of technical analysis hate this). But QQQ 280 at end of day is not clearly bullish; in fact it could be the excess high (for the week) that Shadowtrader talks about.
     
    stock1234 likes this.
  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,699
    Likes Received:
    4,406
    Trump out of the hospital and I guess he is pretty much out of the wood, the focus should be back to the stimulus for the market
     
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    5,699
    Likes Received:
    4,406
    REGN up nicely today :eek:
     

Share This Page