Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of Septebmer 10th! This past week saw the following moves in the S&P: Major Indices End of Week: Bird's Eye view of the Major Futures Markets on Friday: Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead: Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD: What to Watch in the Week Ahead: Monday 12:00 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic 3:00 p.m. Consumer credit Tuesday 6:00 a.m. NFIB survey 10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade 10:00 a.m. JOLTS 1 p.m. $35 billion 3-year auction Wednesday 8:30 a.m. PPI 9:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 12:45 p.m. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard 1 p.m. $23 billion 10-year Treasury auction 2 p.m. Beige book Thursday 8:30 a.m. Initial claims 8:30 a.m. CPI 10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chairman Randy Quarles 1 p.m. $15 billion 30-year auction 1:15 p.m. Atlanta Fed's Bostic 2 p.m. Federal budget Friday 8:30 a.m. Retail sales 8:30 a.m. Import prices 9:00 a.m. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans 9:15 a.m. Industrial production 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Business inventories 10:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren
Trump Tariff Threat Trounces Tech Turnaround, Tesla Tattered It was supposed to be a blockbuster day for stocks, if not so much for bonds, and it started off well. One hour after the BLS reported the strongest growth in average hourly earnings in 9 years... ... stocks started off strong, even if the performance through mid-day left something to be desired. The early rebound was driven by tech stocks, with a rebound in the battered semis and chip sector... ...helping FANGs reverse two days of sharp declines, at least in early trading. Treasury yields showed more enthusiasm, with a sharp bond selloff after the bell sending 10Y yield to 2.95%, after opening at 2.88%. The move was matched across the curve, even if yield curve remained perfectly flat intraday and was last seen fractionally lower. However the pleasant mood in the market was promptly spoiled just around noon, when Bloomberg carried over comments from Trump aboard Air Force 1, in which the president threatened to impose an additional $267BN in tariffs on China imports, in addition to the $200BN already contemplated, capturing virtually all Chinese exports. The latest salvo from Trump in the trade war rattled U.S. stocks a day after top American executives made a last-minute push to convince the president to not impose fresh tariffs. The result in the Dow Jones was instant, sending the multi-national heavy index tumbling by 100 points. At its low point, the Dow was down nearly 180 points... ... although as the day progressed, and as traders realized that the big "risk-off" event of the day, Trump's announcement of $200BN in new Chinese tariffs, would be delayed, stocks recouped much of their losses, and the Nasdaq was virtually unchanged after peeking into the green on a few occasions. The dour mood returned shortly after 3:30pm however, when Apple announced that it would likely be hit by the Chinese sanctions: APPLE: PROPOSED TARRIFS AFFECTS WATCH, AIRPODS, APPLE PENCIL APPLE SAYS PROPOSED TARRIFS ALSO AFFECT MAC MINI, SOME CABLES Although even fears that Apple margins would be impacted failed to put too much pressure on stocks, and the S&P never really moved too far below the unchanged line. Earlier in the session, dollar weakness helped emerging-market stocks snap seven days of declines while a gauge of currencies also rose. The rebound, however, will be brief as today's surge in the dollar which guarantees at least two more rate hikes this years, and potentially more in 2018, means that the pain for EMs will return as soon as Monday. In summary, another day of whiplashes, in which Trump proved that with one phrase he can crush sentiment on a moment's notice. Meanwhile, as LPL Financial 's Ryan Detrick tweeted this morning, it's been a tough start to the month of September for the S&P 500, which has fallen for the fourth day in a row. This is notable, because as he notes, "going back to the Great Depression, only two times did it start down the first four days. 1987 and 2001." And, as Bloomberg shows, a 20-year seasonality chart bears that out, with "2018 a far cry from recent history." Which is troubling for hedge funds, because as Nomura showed earlier in the week, September has traditionally been a month of two-halved: a strong first half, and then a slide in the second. It may be the case that have decided to skip the first half and go straight to the selloff. Finally, it's worth noting that just hours after Elon Musk gave a controversial interview in which he showed off his flamethrower and smoked pot, first Tesla's Chief accounting officer quit after just one month on the job, followed immediately by an announcement that Tesla's head of HR would not be returning to the company. The news sent TSLA stock plunging as much as 10%, its biggest one day drop in 2 years... ... While Tesla bonds plunged to the lowest on record. Is the long-overdue bursting of the Tesla bubble emblematic of the sentiment shift in the market in general? Tune in next week and find out.
Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2018- S&P sectors for the past week-
The Bespoke Report — Buyers Strike Sep 7, 2018 The End of Summer Hangover. Unless you are a stay at home parent with kids, the end of Labor Day weekend, when schools are back in session and summer starts to wind down is always a tough time of year. After a summer of nice weather, swimming, hiking, outdoor sports, and hopefully even a vacation, Tuesday morning after the three day Labor Day weekend is one of the tougher days of the year for a lot of people. This year was no exception, and it was reflected in the performance of US and global equity markets. Take a look at the chart below, for six straight trading days now, the S&P 500 had a lower intraday high and lower intraday low than the prior day’s levels. That type of consistent selling with zero in the way of buying doesn’t happen very often. To find the most recent occurrence, you have to go all the way back to May 2012, and since 1982, it has only occurred eight other times. Typical September Trading: Another Historically Challenging Month Although August is the worst month of the year for the market since 1987 (recent 31-year period), September is the worst month going back to 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500. It is also the worst month for NASDAQ since 1971 and the worst for Russell 1000 and 2000 since 1979. Looking at the full month of September one day at a time, just before mid-month has offered the bulls the best opportunity with the chart exhibiting strength from around the close of the sixth trading day to the close of the thirteenth trading day. The tenth and twelfth trading days briefly interrupt the trend. After this stretch, the final third of the month is generally weak with all five indexes quickly surrendering earlier month gains. Market Reversals Common Following “Strong” August Performance Thus far solid market gains in August have not carried over into September. DJIA is a slightly higher, but S&P 500 and NASDAQ are not. Looking back at past strong August performance there is a pattern of below average performance in September. The dividing line for “strong” August performance was drawn at each index’s respective performance this August. For example, any August since 1950 in which DJIA gained 2.2% or more was included. The same dividing line was used for S&P 500 going back to 1950 and NASDAQ since 1971. Looking at the above table, September’s weaker performance following a “strong” August is quite visible. Compared to all Septembers since 1950, DJIA average performance following a “strong” August falls to a 1.2% loss compared to a 0.7% average decline in all Septembers. The frequency of positive Septembers also declines significantly from 39.7% in all Septembers to just 22.2% in Septembers after a “strong” August. S&P 500 and NASDAQ exhibit similar declines in September’s average performance. In the case of a “strong” August, strength does not equal continued strength all that often. “Parah Parah,” Time to Sell Rosh Hashanah Happy Jewish New Year to you all! I enter this High Holiday season on the Jewish calendar with a new perspective having just returned from an amazing journey through Israel with my family in celebration of my son’s bar mitzvah. I took the above picture of the Dome of the Rock two weeks ago from the roof of the Austrian Hospice in the middle of the Muslim Quarter of the Old City of Jerusalem. We circumnavigated much of the country from the beaches of Tel Aviv to King Herod the Great’s famed port city of Caesarea to the Golan Heights to the Sea of Galilee (or the Kinneret, it’s a lake), down the River Jordan to Jerusalem. Then we trekked down to the Dead Sea, ascended Masada by cable car and visited a plethora of ancient sites and natural treasures. As a secular Jew with a relatively progressive outlook and open mind, I was amazed at how easily the many cultures and historic narratives blend and coexist in the Holy Land. There are still many obstacles and resentments there, as there are here in the USA and everywhere. Nevertheless, Israel continues to thrive and advance technologically, while at the same time reveling and preserving the wonders of antiquity. Perhaps the most important thing I learned was during my discussions with our guide about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the peace progress. He told me about an old Hebrew saying: “Parah Parah,” literally “cow cow.” It comes from an old story about dealing with one cow at a time and it emphasizes the mantra of handling certain things in life “one thing at a time.” Our guide intimated that this could be the key to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the peace progress. He suggested that the first thing the world, the Israelis and the Palestinian Authority should be focusing on is improving the quality of life for the Palestinian people, first and foremost. Once they are happier and living better, then we can begin the peace process. Anyway, as the High Holidays approach you may remember the old saying on the Street, “Buy Rosh Hashanah, Sell Yom Kippur.” Though it had a good record at one time, it stopped working in the middle of the last century. It still gets tossed around every autumn when the “high holidays” are on the minds of traders as many of their Jewish colleagues take off to observe the Jewish New Year and Day of Atonement. The basis for the new pattern, “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur,” is that with many traders and investors busy with religious observance and family, positions are closed out and volume fades creating a buying vacuum. Holiday seasonality around official market holidays is something we pay close attention to (page 88 Stock Trader’s Almanac). Actual stats on the most observed Hebrew holidays have been compiled in the table here. We present the data back to 1971 and when the holiday falls on a weekend the prior market close is used. It’s no coincidence that Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur fall in September and/or October, two dangerous and sometimes opportune months. Perhaps it’s Talmudic wisdom but, selling stocks before the eight-day span of the high holidays has avoided many declines, especially during uncertain times. This year the high holidays commence on Monday, September 10, and end in the middle of the September options expiration week. The current news flow already has folks selling ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, setting up the market for further declines in treacherous September. DJIA, S&P 500 Up 8 of Last 9 Years Day before Rosh Hashanah Although not an official market holiday, Rosh Hashanah is observed by many New York area schools and many Jewish colleagues will also spend time observing the holiday with family and friends. Their absence can dampen trading volumes as positions are squared ahead of the holiday. This year Rosh Hashanah begins at sunset on Sunday, September 9. So Friday, September 7 is the last trading day before Rosh Hashanah.. Over the last 22 years the day before Rosh Hashanah has been up more than 50% of the time, but there have been some large declines that result in average losses across the board while Rosh Hashanah (or the next trading day) has recorded average gains. More recently DJIA and S&P 500 have been up 8 times in the last 9 years (NASDAQ up 7 of 9) on the day before (and six straight) but those gains have been short-lived as the next day has been weaker, down 5 of the last 6 years. Why the S&P 500 Monthly Win Streak Could Have Bulls Smiling Posted by lplresearch After gaining 19.4% last year, the S&P 500 is once again surging in 2018—up nearly 8.0%, with the Nasdaq 14.8% and Russell 2000 11.7% up even more as of 09/06/18. Could there be even more gains in store over the coming year? We think so. With a 14-year high in manufacturing, consumer spending at its best pace in four years, contained inflation, and 20% earnings expected in 2018 and another 10% next year, the economy continues to be in very solid shape. Not to mention the S&P 500 recently broke out to new all-time highs for the first time in nearly seven months, which historically has been followed by stronger than average returns in the coming year. One more thing: A little-followed event just took place that has a solid track record for indicating potentially continued equity strength. “The S&P 500 just closed higher for the fifth consecutive month in August. Well, would you believe that the past 25 times that has happened, it was higher a year later 24 of those times?” explained Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. As our LPL Chart of the Day shows, a five-month win streak may be a great signal for continued strength. Take note that this time last year, the S&P 500 was up five months in a row and many were concerned it had gone “too far too fast.” Twelve months later, it had added another 17.4%. The Worst Month of the Year Posted by lplresearch Well, here it comes—September. It’s widely considered the worst month of the year for equities for good reason, since it has historically performed the worst. Per Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist, “September is the banana peel month, as some of the largest slips tend to take place during this month. Although the economy is still quite strong, and stocks are marking hew highs, this doesn’t mean some usual September volatility is out of the question—in fact, we’d be surprised if volatility didn’t pick up given midterm years tend to see big moves in the months leading up to the November election.” Here’s some data to consider as September approaches: Since 1950, no month sports a lower average return than September, with the S&P 500 Index down 0.47% on average. June and August are the only other months that are generally in the negative, while November and December tend to be the strongest months of the year. In the past 20 years, September has been the second-worst month, with only August fairing worse. More recently, over the past 10 years, it’s still down on average but comes in at the fifth-worst month. The worst September ever for the S&P 500 was a 30% drop in 1931. In fact, no other month has had more 10% drops than September, at seven. Interestingly, January is the only month that has never been down 10% or more. Since 1950, if the S&P 500 starts September above its 200-day moving average (like 2018 will), it tends to do much better, as it is up 0.4% on average versus down 2.7% if it starts the month below the 200-day moving average. Last, as we shared last week, when the S&P 500 is up in the five months heading into September (like 2018), the month has historically done quite well, up 2.3% on average and higher four out of five times since 1950. S&P 500 Sector Switcheroo Set for September 28 Posted by lplresearch Mark your calendars, because S&P GICS sectors are scheduled to undergo one of their most significant makeovers in history. Effective September 28, S&P Dow Jones Indices will make significant changes to its Global Industrial Classification Standard—referred to as GICS. Index provider MSCI will follow with its own updated indices in early December. Reclassifying companies into different sectors may not sound like a big deal for the S&P 500 Index, but as shown in LPL’s Chart of the Day, this one will be quite meaningful. The telecommunication services sector will be expanded and renamed “communication services.” The stocks that will be added to the expanded sector are mostly media and internet companies within the consumer discretionary and technology sectors, with a focus on digital advertising and social media. “The revamped and rebranded telecom sector will look much different than its predecessor, with superior growth prospects, higher valuations, and likely higher volatility,” according to John Lynch, LPL’s Chief Investment Strategist. “At the same time, the consumer discretionary sector will have less emphasis on traditional media, while the technology sector will lose some of its internet high-fliers.” The S&P 500 weighting for the telecom services sector—rebranded as communication services—will increase from 2.0% to 10.1%. After the changes, three of the original four “FANG” stocks (Facebook, Netflix, and Google/Alphabet) will be part of the new communication services sector. In total, about 8% of the S&P 500 is being reclassified in the biggest change to the sector landscape in the history of the GICS. The information technology sector will be trimmed to about 21% weight (from 26% currently) in the S&P 500. Consumer discretionary will be reduced to 10.1% weight (from 12.8%). We believe these changes are important for investors to consider, especially those who use telecom, consumer discretionary, or technology sector strategies including exchange-traded funds. Who’s Following the Stock Market? Sep 7, 2018 One of the questions we ask consumers in our monthly Consumer Pulse survey is if they follow the stock market on a regular basis. Since we began running our Pulse survey in 2014, the percentage of respondents that follow the stock market has steadily ticked higher to its current level of 58.6% (as of August). This is generally to be expected given that the stock market has also steadily ticked higher since 2014, but we really don’t know what would happen during a bear market because we haven’t had a bear market in nine years. Below is a breakdown of interest in the stock market by annual income bracket. They say that the stock market is only for the wealthy, so let’s see what the numbers show. The highest income bracket in our survey ($200k+) has had the highest percentage of interest in the stock market every month since we began running our survey in 2014. In the most recent month, 75.2% of consumers with incomes above $200k said they follow the stock market on a regular basis. This is not quite at an all-time high, though, even with the S&P 500 recently trading to new all-time highs. April 2017 is when stock market interest for the highest income bracket hit its highest level in our survey at just over 78%. As might be expected, the higher the income, the more interest in the stock market. The $100,000-$199,999 bracket has the 2nd highest interest in the stock market at 67.4%, followed by the $50,000-$99,999 bracket at 58.9%. The lowest income bracket ($0-$49,999) has the lowest interest in the stock market, but at 46.3%, nearly a majority of the group says they follow the stock market on a regular basis. As you can see in the chart, interest in the stock market has picked up across all income brackets over the last four years. Jobs Day Recap: Wages Impress Sep 7, 2018 Job creation was slightly stronger than expected by economists in August (+201,000 versus +190,000 expected), but the 3 month average of payrolls growth fell to its lowest level since the end of last year thanks to large downward revisions to June and July data totaling a decline of 50,000 versus what had been previously reported. YoY jobs growth is once again slowing after a modest late-expansion uptick which had peaked as-of June. While jobs growth has slowed, it’s still rising at a very healthy pace on an annual basis. Despite ongoing jobs growth, the labor force participation rate has been basically stable for the past 5 years. One reason the LFPR is not rising along with employment is demographics: as the labor force ages, there are large outflows from employment to non-participation thanks to retirement. For instance, on average over the last 12 months, 3% of employed workers have left the labor force entirely. If they had been fired outright, it’s very unlikely they would not start looking for work immediately. Hence, the stability of the LFPR is almost entirely a demographic effect. Saving the best for last, this was the strongest month of the expansion when it comes to wage growth. Total private wages rose 2.9% YoY, while production & non-supervisory wages (for non-managerial workers) rose to 2.8% YoY, fractional new high on an unrounded basis (+2.80% versus +2.77% in June). While job creation has slowed a bit, wages are continuing their slow process of acceleration after years of extreme weakness post-recession.
Stock Market Analysis Video for September 7th, 2018 Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.10.18 - A market has to rally before it can break Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.7.18- Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices- ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!- ======================================================================================================== Stockaholics Daily Stock Pick Challenge & SPX Sentiment Poll for Monday (9/10) <-- click there to cast your daily market vote and stock pick! Stockaholics Weekly Stock Picking Contest & SPX Sentiment Poll (9/10-9/14) <-- click there to cast your weekly market vote and stock picks! ======================================================================================================== It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these! I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead!
Here are the most anticipated ERs for this upcoming week ahead (I'll also have the weekly earnings calendar posted in here as well once it's out) ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time*** Monday 9.10.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE. Monday 9.10.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW MONDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 9.11.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Tuesday 9.11.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW TUESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 9.12.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Wednesday 9.12.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW WEDNESDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 9.13.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Thursday 9.13.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW THURSDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 9.14.18 Before Market Open: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S AM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! Friday 9.14.18 After Market Close: Spoiler: CLICK HERE TO VIEW FRIDAY'S PM EARNINGS TIMES & ESTIMATES! NONE.
And as promised here is the most anticipated earnings calendar for this upcoming trading week ahead- ($ADBE $KR $PLAY $PVTL $SONO $FRAN $TLRD $SKIS $CASY $LMNR $BRC $MTRX $SAIC $EYPT $LAKE $CDMO $COOL $FARM $AGTC $IRET $OXM $PTN $ACET $RLGT $CSBR $PCYG $STRM $ERYP $LOVE $MAMS) If you guys want to view the full earnings post please see this thread here- Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the week beginning September 10th, 2018 <-- click there to view!
AAPL event this week i believe correct? futs kicking off the new trading week on a green start (for now)
good morning! here is the morning pre-market thread for anyone wanting to get a quick read in before today's open- <-- click there to open! hope everyone has a great trading day & week ahead!
SHLD one of the big losers today, and not really any news. Not that this thing needs news to drop -20% already.
Emerging Markets in Bear Market Territory Things have been so bad for emerging market equities of late that the MSCI Emerging Market index has now declined over 20% from its January high on both an intraday and closing basis. That officially puts the index in bear market territory. What’s particularly noteworthy about the current bear market for EM is that even though it is far from the most severe of the last 30 years, it already ranks as the third longest. The only longer declines of 20% or more in the index (without a 20% rally) were from February 2000 through September 2001 (589 days) and September 2014 through January 2016 (505 days). Even more significant, in our view, is the fact that the current downturn in EM is also the longest stretch without a 10%+ rally (223 days) in over 30 years. Going back to 1988, there has never been another period where EM went more than six months without a 10% rally. Looking ahead, when EM finally did turn, the average rally was just over 37%, which is right inline with the historical average.
10yr yields catching a bid after friday's stronger than expected nfp # wonder which way this will break in this wedge. might be poll worthy.
HDS dipped below the 50 ma last week on ER, but after 4 straight days of above-average volume it is catching a bid here LOW and HD are breaking out.
Yeah pretty amazing that the EM is in bear market for so long when the US market is still near ATH If the US market begins to pull back then it could get even uglier for EM
