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Stock Market Today: September 16th - 20th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Sep 14, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    quite the chop fest today ... guess everyone's waiting on tomorrow's fed decision?

    unless we don't get the 0.25% cut that is widely expected, i guess it'll be largely a nonevent...of course absent any trump tweets :p
     
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  2. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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  3. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Oil stocks falling pretty hard today :eek: The FED probably will cut tomorrow. I think bonds have more downside than upside since the FED probably won’t be as dovish as the market wants on future cut :p We will see
     
    #23 stock1234, Sep 17, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2019
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  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    With Fed Cut Likely, Markets Gauging Guidance
    September 17, 2019

    The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy committee starts its sixth two-day policy meeting of the year today. At 2:00 p.m. ET Wednesday, following the meeting’s conclusion, the Fed will announce its rate decision and release a brief policy statement, accompanied by new economic projections. This will be followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

    As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, Market Widely Expects A Second Rate Cut On September 18, the Fed is widely expected to lower its policy rate 0.25% to a target range of 1.75–2%, following the first cut of the cycle in July. With a 0.25% cut largely baked into market expectations, markets will be paying close attention to forward guidance and whether improving economic data will have lowered the likelihood of further cuts. There almost certainly will be a tweet from President Trump critical of the Fed’s decision, but unless there is a direct threat to interfere with Fed independence, markets are unlikely to pay much attention.

    “Unless there’s a big surprise, the markets’ response to tomorrow’s Fed announcement will focus on forward guidance,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “U.S. economic data has been stabilizing, but the risks around trade and slowing global growtth are still in play. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have to steer a careful course between reassuring markets and recognizing an economy still exhibiting record low unemployment, fairly steady growth, and signs of a small but meaningful uptick in inflation.”

    [​IMG]

    Here is what we’ll be watching:

    How the policy statement will characterize the economy. Despite a short-term pick-up in inflation, the Fed will need to be careful about raising any concerns. Downgrading its characterization of business investment while highlighting strong consumer spending may provide a way to balance the case for monetary easing while acknowledging underlying economic strength. Any mention of a short-term pick-up in inflation would tilt negative for markets.

    Dissents to the policy decision. In July there were two dissents against the rate cut. Those two members may dissent again. A third dissent, while unlikely, would signal that additional cuts may have waning support.

    Forecasts. Keep an eye on the economic growth forecast for 2020. Little movement from the 2% forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in June would signal continued confidence. The policy rate outlook will be lowered, since the median forecast in June was for no cuts in 2019. Markets will be looking for three cuts in 2019 and will be disappointed by two. Also watch for any reduction in the long-term GDP rate.

    How Powell handles the press conference. Powell’s characterization of the Fed’s rate cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment” at the press conference following the July meeting sent the S&P 500 Index into a four-day tailspin. We think he will stick to his talking point, but he’ll try to frame it in an accommodative way, emphasizing the Fed’s data dependency and willingness to step in if needed. The recent attack on Saudi oil facilities may give Powell extra cover to emphasize economic risks, but improving economic data and a pickup in inflation will give him little wiggle room. Powell has occasionally stumbled in his press conferences when framing the Fed’s intentions, and this one may be particularly challenging.
     
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  5. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    Fed injects billions of dollars into US market after funding squeeze

    The Federal Reserve injected billions of dollars into the US financial system in the first such intervention in more than a decade as the central bank sought to alleviate funding pressures caused by a sudden scarcity of cash. The cost of borrowing cash overnight via repurchasing agreements known as repos surged between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning to as high as 10 per cent, a more than fourfold increase, according to Refinitiv data.
     
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  6. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    stock1234, Bodacious and bigbear0083 like this.
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  8. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    MEDIC!!!! I need a tourniquet..........
     
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  9. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Just goofin, actually I'm trying to figure what to scale while prices are depressed.
     
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  10. StockJock-e

    StockJock-e Brew Master
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    U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in August.

    Both single- and multi-family housing construction increased, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were finally providing a boost to the struggling housing market.

    Housing starts jumped 12.3% to 1.364 million units last month, the highest level since June 2007, the Commerce Department said.


    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/18/us-...-in-august-vs-1point250-million-expected.html
     
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  11. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    That's a strike against a recession happening soon.
     
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  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    powell up to bat to the podium soon ... curious if we see this again while he's speaking :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  13. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    just some stat i just stumbled across in my afternoon reads here.

    evidently if the first two cuts in a new cutting cycle are 0.25 basis points, the spx has historically performed pretty decent. in the last 5 cycles the spx was up +9.7% six months later and +16.7% a year later.

    [​IMG]
     
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    I don’t like the cut to be honest. I think the economy is still doing ok and it gives us less room to cut when the economic conditions actually are worsening o_O
     
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  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    potus disagress with you :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Market almost turning green here :eek:
     
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  18. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Yepper, S&P green now, at 3006 up from 2979.
     
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  19. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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  20. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    she's hot!
     
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