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Stock Market Today: September 30th - October 4th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Sep 27, 2019.

  1. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    That's literally #1 ;)

    In the #1 situation, I don't see any market change.
     
  2. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    Yes, except:
    Biden, Hillary go to prison.
     
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Again, this isn't political. Asking how it will affect the market.
     
  4. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    lol...you didn't give any options for market reaction, only "political" commentary in your original post, so it does look "political" IMO.

    Market will go down on impeachment, up on non-impeachment. <- this would be a "non-political" comment.
     
  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I posted all 4 situations that I could foresee happening and asked how people think the market would react to each one. See bolded blue comment highlighted above.

    Nonetheless, yes you're right, I could have kept it simpler and saying I expect market down on impeachment, up on non-impeachment. Kind of wanted more nuanced discussion on how they think a specific scenario would play out and if it would be a BIG market mover, major correction, etc.
     
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  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    pretty red market map up to this point :p

    let's see how the afternoon shapes up

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    not sure how accurate this stat is but i just saw this run across my twitter feed this afternoon that said this was the worse 2-day start for Q4 for the market (or at least for the DJ30) since going back to Q4 of 2008 :eek:

    the month of october has been pretty notorious for some big market swings. going back to the great depression the spx has seen 3 of the largest daily drops in history and 6 of the worst 10 daily drops ever. on the flip side though it has also had 3 of the top 10 daily gains ever lol.

    needless to say, oct. can get pretty volatile eh :p

    [​IMG]
     
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  8. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Yeah market is getting volatile once again :eek: Let’s see if the services PMI tomorrow and the jobs report on Friday could calm the market down a little bit on the economic slowdown fears :p
     
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  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    hah, saw some more stats lighting up my twitter feed this afternoon and thought was worth to share here.

    this could be the first time in history that the spx has ever started Q4 with two consecutive -1% or greater drops.

    the previous time it was down -1% on consecutive days to start any new quarter was back in Q3 of 2002.

    the record for most consecutive -1% drops to start a new quarter was in Q2 of 1932. the spx was down at least -1% for the first 7 days of that quarter. :p
     
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  10. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    After a one-day recovery on October 30, when the Dow regained an additional 28.40 points, or 12 percent, to close at 258.47, the market continued to fall, arriving at an interim bottom on November 13, 1929, with the Dow closing at 198.60. The market then recovered for several months, starting on November 14, with the Dow gaining 18.59 points to close at 217.28, and reaching a secondary closing peak (bear market rally) of 294.07 on April 17, 1930. The Dow then embarked on another, much longer, steady slide from April 1930 to July 8, 1932, when it closed at 41.22, its lowest level of the 20th century, concluding an 89 percent loss rate for all of the market's stocks.

    For the rest of the 1930s, beginning on March 15, 1933, the Dow began to slowly regain the ground it had lost during the 1929 crash and the three years following it. The largest percentage increases of the Dow Jones occurred during the early and mid-1930s. In late 1937, there was a sharp dip in the stock market, but prices held well above the 1932 lows. The market would not return to the peak closing of September 3, 1929, until November 23, 1954.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_Crash_of_1929
     
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  11. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    Ok. I averaged down on today's collapse. But according to my theory, the SPX shall minimally hit 2950 and so I can exit my initial position at break even and profit take on the rest. The SPX collapsed much deeper than I had expected.
     
  12. OldFart

    OldFart Well-Known Member

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    I think we'd crash pretty hard if the house voted to impeach, then bounce pretty hard when congress voted against it.
    -1000 ( or more ) downside, +900 ( or more ) upside ( on the days it happened )
    Just opinion of course... :)
     
  13. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    Still not feeling a lot of panic just yet, most stocks are down for the day obviously but not like they got sold off hard either :p
     
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  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

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    OldFart likes this.
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    Bad Breadth on Both Sides of the Atlantic
    Wed, Oct 2, 2019

    On a day when the Dow was down almost 2% and the S&P 500 down nearly 1.8%, it's no surprise that market breadth was very weak on Wednesday. For the S&P 500 as a whole, just 25 stocks in the index were up on the day. What makes today's sell-off even more severe is that breadth was not only bad here, but it was also very poor on the other side of the Atlantic where only 12 stocks in the entire STOXX 600 were up on the day. On a combined basis, just 37 of the 1,100 stocks in the two indices were up on the day, and that doesn't happen very often. The last time breadth on both sides of the Atlantic was this week was on August 5th, and there have only been 30 trading days since the start of 2009 where the combined number of advancing stocks in the two indices was less than 50.

    The chart below shows the S&P 500 going back to the start of 2009, and in it we have included red dots to denote each time that there was similarly weak breadth. Prior to the two mot recent occurrences (today and 8/5), you have to go all the way back to September 2015 to finds the last occurrence. What's interesting to note about these prior occurrences is that nearly all of them have occurred in bunches during periods where the market was in consolidation/correction mode. In fact, the only one that occurred in isolation during a market uptrend was on 6/20/13 when the market freaked out about the Fed's 'taper' program. Remember that one?

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

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    SQ looking pretty solid, currently up 10% from its low last week, and today back-filled a gap. Might go lower tomorrow (doesn't look like the market had its volatility spike), but right now it's feeling like anything closer to $55 is a gift.
    [​IMG]

    Another payment processor, PYPL, is looking like it's nearing support on its pullback.
    Monthly chart with 20-month ma.
    [​IMG]
     
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  17. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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  18. Bodacious

    Bodacious Active Member

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    Slow Motion Economic Collapse and You’re Right In the Middle of It! Debt Based System Failing

     
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  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
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    market map heading into the final 3 hours of the trading day:

    nice little bounce back off the earlier morning lows.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. Frankenstein

    Frankenstein Active Member

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    I barely missed entering at 2855 to 2860. I didn't enter my long order fast enough. At any rate, as I said, my theory says the SPX shall rally to 2960 at some point--but my gut says I should probably aim to profit take at around 2980
     

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