Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

Stock Market Today: September 9th - 13th, 2019

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Sep 7, 2019.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Welcome Stockaholics to the trading week of September 9th!

    This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
    [​IMG]

    Major Indices End of Week:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Major Futures Markets on Friday:
    [​IMG]

    Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
    [​IMG]

    Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    What to Watch in the Week Ahead:

    • Monday

    3 p.m. Consumer credit

    • Tuesday

    6 a.m. NFIB small business survey

    10 a.m. JOLTS

    1 p.m.: Apple event

    • Wednesday

    8:30 a.m. Producer price index

    10 a.m. Wholesale trade

    • Thursday

    7:45 a.m. European Central Bank policy announcement

    8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

    8:30 a.m. Consumer price index

    • Friday

    8:30 a.m. Retail sales

    8:30 a.m. Import prices

    10 a.m. Consumer sentiment

    10 a.m. Business inventories
     
    T0rm3nted and OldFart like this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Stocks & Bond Yields Rise On Trade War Hope, Commodities Collapse Most In 28 Years
    Stocks within inches of record highs and bonds within mm of record low yields... and all on the back of a call and a possible round of trade talks in a month...


    "Awesome" as long as Powell delivers at least 125bps of rate-cuts in the next 15 months...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y German bond yields very briefly went positive this week, but despite gains in stocks today, bonds were also bid...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Ugly end to the week for an exuberant post-mid-week pumpathon...the dump started at 330ET

    [​IMG]

    Second day in a row that a late-day sell program hit...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    After a tough open (with a holiday-shortened week), US equity markets soared/squeezed higher to end green with Nasdaq leading and Small Caps lagging...

    [​IMG]



    Futures show the volatility intraday best (or extra-day in this case)...

    [​IMG]



    Small Caps remain below the 200DMA...

    [​IMG]



    As the odds of a US-China trade deal shot higher this week...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cyclicals made a big comeback after the trade deal headlines, but defensives also ended the week positive...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg



    Treasury yields ended the week higher (with 30Y +6bps, 2Y +2.5bps)

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    30Y Yields remained above 2.00% but tumbled during today's day session after the weak jobs data...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The yield curve steepened on the week but 3m10Y remains drastically inverted...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    The dollar has fallen 4 straight days back to 2-week lows...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    China's offshore yuan had its 2nd best week in 7 months, soaring back up near the fix by week's end...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Cryptos ended the week broadly higher, despite a sudden puke today, with Bitcoin a notable outperformer vs altcoins...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Despite today's tumble, Bitcoin ended the week back above $10k and increasingly set for a breakout one way or another...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg



    Gold and Silver ended the week lower, crude and copper higher...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    WTI spiked up to what seems like a magic number of $56.50 today...

    [​IMG]



    Gold erased most of Trump's tariff tantrum gains (with some crazy vol today)...

    [​IMG]



    No real surprise that things are getting a bit more volatile in gold as flows near record highs again...

    [​IMG]

    Silver was also extremely volatile today...

    [​IMG]



    Gold's drop tracked the fall in the value of global negative-yielding debt (Bitcoin decoupled)...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Gold rebounded from its intraweek underperformance against silver...

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    As Bloomberg details, soft commodities are on their longest losing streak in at least 28 years as trade tensions and currency swings add further woes to oversupplied markets. The Bloomberg Softs Spot Subindex tracking coffee, sugar, and cotton headed for the 10th straight week of declines, the longest stretch since 1991 when the index started.

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    “The ratcheting-up of trade tensions, which is of itself feeding into broader concerns about global growth” are putting pressure on prices, and the weak Brazilian real is adding stress on sugar and coffee, said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in London.

    Finally, we note that, with stocks within a percent of record highs and US macro data back into positive territory for the first time in 7 months, who would blame Powell for cutting 50bps... what could go wrong?

    [​IMG]

    Source: Bloomberg

    Since the last Fed rate-cut, the dollar and stocks are unchanged, bonds and bullion up around 6%...

    [​IMG]

    If at first you utterly fail, try to cut rates again?
     
  3. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Here are the percentage changes for the major indices for WTD, MTD, QTD & YTD in 2019-
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    S&P sectors for the past week-
    [​IMG]
     
  4. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Meager “Worst Months” Gains Still the Norm in Pre-Election Years
    [​IMG]
    With a little more than four months of DJIA’s and S&P 500 “Worst Six Months” already completed, the markets performance thus far has been lackluster and in line with historical averages. NASDAQ’s “Worst Four Months” (July through October) has been similar to DJIA and S&P 500. From the close on April 30 through yesterday’s close, DJIA gained just 0.51%, S&P 500 1.02%. From the end of June NASDAQ has gained 1.38%.

    These are rather slim returns for the amount of time. And this excludes the volatility the market experienced in May and again in August. At their respective lows during late May and early June DJIA and S&P 500 were down over 6%. At the August low, NASDAQ was off nearly 3.5%. Our Seasonal Switching Strategy exited DJIA and S&P 500 positions on May 2 and rotated into bond positions. Those bond positions were up an average of 10.1%, excluding dividends on September 4.
    [​IMG]

    Next Week's Economic Indicators - 9/6/19
    Fri, Sep 6, 2019

    Despite a shortened week from the Labor Day holiday, there was a heavy slate of economic data with a total of 30 releases. Half of these came in better than estimates or the prior period's reading while another 13 missed or weakened. Three indicators were in line with estimates. There was a lot of manufacturing data this week including readings from Markit and the ISM, Factory Orders, Durable Goods, and Capital Goods. The ISM reading was the most strikingly negative of these as it showed a contractionary reading. The ISM and Markit service counterparts, on the other hand, showed healthier levels, but the Markit PMI did miss estimates. Labor data also was a major focus this week and the overall results were pretty mixed. ISM employment, initial jobless claims, and today's NFP report all disappointed, but the ADP employment change, continuing claims, and labor force participation rate came in stronger than expected. Similarly, each indicator for wages including quarterly unit labor costs and average earnings showed improvements.

    [​IMG]

    It will be slightly less busy next week with only 24 releases scheduled. Following up on this week's labor data, the JOLTS report is due out Tuesday morning and is expected to show fewer job openings than June. Inflation indicators like PPI, CPI, and export and import prices make up a considerable portion of next week's data. Core estimates for both PPI and CPI are forecasted to show higher price inflation in August. In addition to preliminary consumer sentiment, on Friday we will also get a reading on retail sales for August. For both core and headline readings, this indicator is expected to slow significantly MoM compared to July.

    [​IMG]

    Economic Surprise Index Turns Positive
    Fri, Sep 6, 2019

    When it comes to economic reports, one trend that has seemingly been in place all year is that the vast majority of data points have come in short of expectations. The fact that economic momentum has been slowing is one thing, but when the economy consistently comes up short relative to expectations, it sets a tone that things are quickly deteriorating. That's never a good thing, but thankfully, there are signs that the tide is turning.

    The Citi Economic Surprise Index measures the pace at which economic indicators are coming in ahead of or below consensus forecasts. When the index is negative, it means that the majority of reports are coming in below expectations, while a positive reading indicates that most data is coming in ahead of expectations. The chart below shows the index going back to 2003, and the parts where the line is red indicate periods where the index was negative for at least 100 trading days. The most recent period of negative readings was one of the longest ever at 140 trading days and just the 6th streak of 100 or more trading days (during the period from 2015 to 2016 there were actually two separate streaks although it looks like just one long streak in the chart). The fact that this index is now positive indicates that economists have finally ratcheted down estimates enough to be in line with actual conditions on the ground.

    [​IMG]

    Sentiment Back to Normal
    Thu, Sep 5, 2019

    Bullish investor sentiment as measured by AAII's sentiment survey rose 2.5 percentage points to 28.64% this week. While this is an improvement, bullish sentiment is still in the 18th percentile of the data over the past decade. We must also note that the survey would not have captured any benefit from today's news on the trade front and the technical breakout of stocks and other assets like crude oil. Save a tweet or a headline reversing what appears to be optimism given today's positive price action, we'll likely see a bigger jump in bullish sentiment next week.

    [​IMG]

    Bulls borrowed from the bears this week as bearish sentiment fell from 42.2% last week to 39.5%. As with bullish sentiment, this is not necessarily a dramatic improvement as it is still higher than 83% of weeks over the past 10 years. Bearish sentiment also remains the predominant sentiment level among investors as the bull-bear spread is still fairly wide at -10.87 percentage points. Granted, that is the narrowest spread since the last week of July when it was only 28 bps in favor of bears.

    [​IMG]

    The bulk of the loss in bearish sentiment went to bulls, but a small portion also went to the neutral camp as the percentage of investors reporting as neutral grew to 31.9%. While bullish sentiment is still several percentage points below its historical average and the opposite applying to bearish sentiment, neutral sentiment has been pulling back to its historical average over the past few months. Where it currently sits at 31.9%, it is only 0.33% from that average.

    [​IMG]

    ISM Services Shows Little Pressure in Inflation
    Thu, Sep 5, 2019

    Following Tuesday's ISM Manufacturing report, we noted the extremely low reading in the monthly ISM Commodities Survey, which measures the number of commodities rising and falling in price. After today's report for the Non-Manufacturing sector, that trend remained in place. In this morning's report, respondents noted price increases in just 6 commodities and decreases in 4. That net reading of +2 is the weakest reading since January. Combining the results of both reports, in August we saw a total of just 8 commodities up in price and 15 lower. That reading of negative 7 was the lowest since February 2016, while the three-month moving average of -4.0 was the lowest since April 2016.

    As we noted on Tuesday, low readings in the commodities survey usually track the direction of inflation readings pretty closely and would imply that the current y/y reading of 1.8% in CPI will see downward pressure in the months ahead. For example, in the eight prior months where the three-month moving average in the combined reading was between zero and negative five, the average y/y reading in CPI was +0.45% while the median level was +0.65%.

    [​IMG]

    Low P/E, Low Return
    Wed, Sep 4, 2019

    Most investors are trying to forget about August performance as quickly as possible, but we wanted to highlight a noteworthy data set about the month before it gets too far into the rear-view mirror. At the end of every month, we run our decile analysis of the S&P 500 to see which stock characteristics drove performance the most. One characteristic we look at is valuation, and in August, valuations played a big role in performance.

    Below we've broken up the S&P 500 into deciles based on P/E ratios (trailing 12-month). Decile 1 contains the 50 stocks in the S&P with the lowest P/Es at the start of August, while decile 10 contains the 50 stocks in the index with the highest (or negative) P/Es. Each bar in the chart shows the average percentage change in August of the 50 stocks in each decile.

    As shown, the 50 stocks in the S&P with the lowest P/E ratios at the start of the month fell an average of 11.5% in August! The next two deciles with the lowest P/E ratios fell more than 5% as well. On the other end of the spectrum, the 50 stocks with the highest P/E ratios fell only 0.78% in August.

    You've certainly heard a lot about the "death of value investing" recently, and this is why! We have to think that at some point the scales will tip and head in the other direction.

    [​IMG]

    Down August, Up YTD, No Worries
    [​IMG]
    Now that the very volatile month of August has finished on the downside folks are concerned about the other worst month, September, and for good reason. Since 1950, September is the worst performing month of the year. However, while August was negative this year with the market still up year-to-date the prospects for Q4 and the year as a whole are not so ominous. In fact, it’s kind of bullish.

    Early last month we relayed the historical data on August declines being quite commonplace though overall, years with August declines were quite choppy and not especially bullish. However when the market was up year-to-date at the end of August despite an August decline the picture changes dramatically. In the tables here you can see that after some extended volatility and negativity in September Q4 and the year as a whole has been rather positive.

    Since 1949 in years the market was up YTD in August but down for the month DJIA was up in September 56.3% of the time (9 of 16) with an average gain of 0.76%, up in Q4 81.3% of the time (13 of 16) with an average gain of 5.68% and up for the year 100% of the time with an average gain of 17.43%.

    The S&P has a similar record up 58.8% of the time in September (10 of 17) with an average gain of 0.81%, up in Q4 94.1% of the time with an average gain of 5.73% and up for the year 100% of the time with an average gain of 20.21%.

    Since 1971 NASDAQ was up in September 66.7% of the time (6 of 9) with an average gain of 0.35%, up in Q4 66.7% of the time (6 of 9) with an average gain of 4.04% and up for the year 100% of the time with an average gain of 21.72%. NASDAQ was hit much harder in the 1983 bear market and 1997 Asian Financial Crisis than the much larger cap (at the time) DJIA and S&P.
    [​IMG]
     
  5. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Here are the current major indices pullback/correction levels from ATHs as of week ending 9.6.19-
    [​IMG]

    Here is also the pullback/correction levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]

    ...and here are the rally levels from current prices-
    [​IMG]
     
  6. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    [​IMG]

    Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week-

    [​IMG]
     
  7. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Stockaholics come join us on our stock market competitions for this upcoming trading week ahead!-

    ========================================================================================================
    ========================================================================================================

    It would be pretty sweet to see some of you join us and participate on these!

    I hope you all have a fantastic weekend ahead! :cool:
     
  8. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Stock Market Analysis Video for September 6th, 2019
    Video from AlphaTrends Brian Shannon


    ShadowTrader Video Weekly 9.8.19
    Video from ShadowTrader Peter Reznicek
     
  9. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    Here is a look at this upcoming week's Global Economic & Policy Calendar-

    (GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND POLICY CALENDAR NOT YET POSTED!)
     
    OldFart likes this.
  10. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    [​IMG]

    Here are the most anticipated Earnings Releases for this upcoming trading week ahead.

    ***Check mark next to the stock symbols denotes confirmed earnings release date & time***

    Monday 9.9.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Monday 9.9.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 9.10.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Tuesday 9.10.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9.11.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Wednesday 9.11.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 9.12.19 Before Market Open:
    [​IMG]

    Thursday 9.12.19 After Market Close:
    [​IMG]

    Friday 9.13.19 Before Market Open:
    NONE.

    Friday 9.13.19 After Market Close:
    NONE.
     
    OldFart likes this.
  11. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
  12. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
  13. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,603
    Likes Received:
    2,247
    I jumped out of SQ last week with miniscule gains. Payment processors seem weak to me. Other than GPN, which I also closed last week.
    Today PYPL and V not doing so hot, see if PYPL can hold this:
    [​IMG]
     
    OldFart, stock1234 and T0rm3nted like this.
  14. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,291
    Likes Received:
    3,100
    Yeah those stocks are really weak today. Seems like both MA and V hit ATH earlier today before pulling back significantly :eek:
     
    OldFart likes this.
  15. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    here is the avg. spx move in the month of sept. over the past 20 and 70 yrs plotted on a chart.

    both charts seem consistent in that the MTD high is made sometime mid month followed by a selloff.

    we'll see if this sept. follows the historical avg. :p

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  16. anotherdevilsadvocate

    anotherdevilsadvocate Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    3,603
    Likes Received:
    2,247
    Transports with a strong day, +2.06%.
    The IBD 50 index FFTY with a horrible day, -2.92%.

    Kinda believe today's weakness was the McClellan Oscillator pulling back from being overbought. ZS report tomorrow is a big one for cloud stocks, ZS already sold off -11% on August 19 due to a downgrade, and is in bear territory.
    [​IMG]
     
    OldFart likes this.
  17. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,291
    Likes Received:
    3,100
    AAPL event tomorrow. I remember CNBC used to talking non stop about Apple a day before the event, I wasn’t watching CNBC all day long to be honest but I also don’t think I have heard them talking about Apple at all when I was watching :p
     
    OldFart and bigbear0083 like this.
  18. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
  19. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,127
    Likes Received:
    6,243
    aapl event set to get under way in just under 5min. from now.

    does anyone really care? :p

    i used to be one who tuned in to every event for the first couple of minutes at least to see what's new.

    this year? don't even care to be bothered with it. :p
     
    OldFart and stock1234 like this.
  20. stock1234

    stock1234 2017 Stockaholics Contest Winner

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    4,291
    Likes Received:
    3,100
    Not really looking to buy a new phone this year :p Broke my iPad a few months ago and I got a new one when it was on sales at BestBuy, so I doubt I will be looking to buy another iPad too :p
     
    OldFart likes this.

Share This Page