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T0rM3nTeD 401K Trading Journal

Discussion in 'Trade Journals' started by T0rm3nted, Jun 5, 2019.

  1. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    11 days since my last update. Current open positions below. Closed INTC for ~4% gain last Wednesday because it was lagging behind the market and not doing what I expected when I got in the trade, so I figured I'd lock in profits.

    AAPL
    • Been in since 4/21.
    • Target was 21.64%
    • Previous update on 7/10 up 42.29%.
    • Currently up 46.74%.
    • Dividends Received: $30.34
    • Still climbing. No noteworthy news in the past week.
    upload_2020-7-21_7-49-8.png

    COST
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 7.42%
    • Previous update on 7/10 up 7.97%
    • Currently up 8.36%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • No noteworthy news in the last week.
    upload_2020-7-21_7-51-53.png

    KO
    • Been in since 4/20
    • Target was 25.9%
    • Previous update on 7/10 down 6.55%
    • Currently down 3.18%
    • Dividends Received: $86.10
    • Reported earnings this morning. Global unit case volume fell 16%, but the company reported sequential improvement in demand as lockdowns have eased. Coke suspended online advertising at the end of June for one month. Earnings per share: 42 cents, adjusted, vs. 40 cents expected. Revenue: $7.2 billion vs. $7.2 billion expected.
    upload_2020-7-21_7-55-0.png

    LOW
    • Been in since 4/21
    • Target was 35.8%
    • Previous update on 7/10 was up 46.94%
    • Currently up 55.41%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • No noteworthy news. Just 9% increase in the last 10 days for a stock I was already crushing my target on. Ex-Div-Date is today.
    upload_2020-7-21_7-59-53.png

    MCD
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 26.28%
    • Previous update on 7/10 up 7.55%
    • Currently up 11.65%
    • Dividends Received: $72.50
    • I see a wedge forming in the chart, plus struggling to break through resistance at the 200MA.
    upload_2020-7-21_8-1-58.png

    Account Value: $111,480.68 - Up from $108,852.27 last update
    Cash: $49,787.56 (44.7%)
     
    BermudianOption likes this.
  2. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Almost two weeks since the last update. Looks like I dodged the bullet getting out of INTC as I noticed it greatly lagging techs. It was still well in my trading range but I no longer liked the way it was going, which is why my plan is just a plan, but all plans need to be adaptable. I got out, and since getting out it's down 20%. Fortunate timing. On to the still open positions:

    AAPL
    • Been in since 4/21.
    • Target was 21.64%
    • Previous update on 7/21 up 46.74%.
    • Currently up 58.53%.
    • Dividends Received: $30.34
    • Had a really good earnings report, and also announced a 4:1 stock split for 8/24. I like it. WAY beyond my target with no intention of closing it soon.
    upload_2020-8-3_7-51-2.png

    COST
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 7.42%
    • Previous update on 7/21 up 8.36%
    • Currently up 8.04%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • No noteworthy news in the last week.
    upload_2020-8-3_7-53-36.png

    KO
    • Been in since 4/20
    • Target was 25.9%
    • Previous update on 7/21 down 3.18%
    • Currently down 0.83%
    • Dividends Received: $86.10
    • No noteworthy news this week
    upload_2020-8-3_7-56-18.png

    LOW
    • Been in since 4/21
    • Target was 35.8%
    • Previous update on 7/21 was up 55.41%
    • Currently up 60.60%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • No noteworthy news this week.
    upload_2020-8-3_7-58-53.png

    MCD
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 26.28%
    • Previous update on 7/21 up 11.65%
    • Currently up 13.21%
    • Dividends Received: $72.50
    • The wedge I discussed last week was broken out to the positive side. There's a bullish MA crossover happening soon and both should act as support as well. Tempted to add on to this position but I'll probably just hold tight.
    upload_2020-8-3_7-59-35.png

    Account Value: $114,042.84 - Up from $111,480.68 last update
    Cash: $50,302.95 (44.1%)
     
    B Russ likes this.
  3. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Took a bit of a gamble on CWH just now. It's currently down over 21% on very good earnings beat. Gotta watch it closely to see if it sells off again tomorrow though and will just cut ties if it drops too far. Order details and trading plan below.

    upload_2020-8-6_14-44-35.png

    upload_2020-8-6_14-44-53.png
     
  4. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Bought NFLX. Details tomorrow when I’m officially back from vacation
     
  5. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    NFLX order details and trade plan below:

    upload_2020-8-18_8-34-55.png

    upload_2020-8-18_8-35-41.png
     
  6. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    15 days since my last update. Just got back from vacation. Added NFLX yesterday. Looks like the market treated me well while I was gone.

    AAPL
    • Been in since 4/21.
    • Target was 21.64%
    • Previous update on 8/3 up 58.53%.
    • Currently up 71.92%.
    • Dividends Received: $60.68 ($30.34 since last update)
    • Zack's upgraded to a Strong Buy since my last update. New iPhones are coming in September. The 4:1 stock split is scheduled for 8/31. Other than that, mostly just speculative bullish/bearish articles about how there's still room for much growth, it's risen too far and too fast, etc.
    upload_2020-8-18_8-50-0.png

    COST
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 7.42%
    • Previous update on 8/3 up 8.04%
    • Currently up 12.76%
    • Dividends Received: $23.10 ($23.10 since last update)
    • July sales rose 14%. Costco won a court case about fake rings being sold in their stores and the case was thrown out.
    upload_2020-8-18_8-54-2.png

    CWH
    • Been in since 8/6
    • Target was 26.84%
    • No previous update
    • Currently up 6.32%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • CWH beat earnings comfortably and still dropped 21%. That is what fueled my entrance. I entered just a little early and should have waited one more day, but not going to fret about it when I'm still up.
    upload_2020-8-18_8-58-3.png

    KO
    • Been in since 4/20
    • Target was 25.9%
    • Previous update on 8/3 down 0.83%
    • Currently up 1.24%
    • Dividends Received: $86.10
    • No noteworthy news this week
    upload_2020-8-18_9-0-12.png

    LOW
    • Been in since 4/21
    • Target was 35.8%
    • Previous update on 8/3 was up 60.60%
    • Currently up 70.35%
    • Dividends Received: $59.40 ($59.40 since last update)
    • Earnings report tomorrow morning. Home Depot reported this morning and had a good earnings report, I'd expect the same out of Lowe's. A report came out showing Lowe's had more transactions than HD.
    upload_2020-8-18_9-4-7.png

    MCD
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 26.28%
    • Previous update on 8/3 up 13.21%
    • Currently up 21.33%
    • Dividends Received: $72.50
    • The wedge I discussed did result in a breakout, as expected. Approaching my target.
    upload_2020-8-18_10-22-3.png

    NFLX
    • Been in since 8/17
    • Target was 20.43%
    • No previous update
    • Currently up 1.32%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • This one has followed the 50MA up and used it as support, only having one consistent dip below it when COVID hit in the very beginning in March. Plenty of room for a streaming service that's in most households to continue to make money even if the country shuts down again at some point.
    upload_2020-8-18_10-24-42.png

    Account Value: $119,312.12 - Up from $114,042.84 last update
    Cash: $30,790.14 (25.8%)
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  7. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Just added on to my position in CWH at a new support. I would have closed my original, but the day it took the huge drop I was away from my desk all day and did not notice and it cleared the stop by quite a bit. I watched it closely after that and it had seemed to find more support so I decided I'd make that my new stop. Good chance this gets closed today for a loss if the support doesn't hold.

    upload_2020-8-31_10-3-49.png

    upload_2020-8-31_10-3-23.png
     
  8. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Just hopped in USAS. 50MA has acted as regular support dating back to mid June. Some clear upside here too.

    upload_2020-9-1_11-17-17.png

    upload_2020-9-1_11-17-6.png
     
  9. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Been a couple weeks since the last update. I've added a couple positions. 2 new positions opened, leaving me with <10% in cash now. I am considering closing MCD right near target price, and KO to free up some cash as that one is lagging the market severely.

    AAPL
    • Been in since 4/21.
    • Target was 21.64%
    • Previous update on 8/18 up 71.92%.
    • Currently up 97.82%.
    • Dividends Received: $60.68
    • 4:1 stock split happened yesterday. There's been about 7% gain since yesterday if memory serves. Apple expanded it's leadership in the "wearable" technology. I had to recreate the chart below because tradingview deleted my trade block. It's not perfect but it should be close enough.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-27-21.png

    COST
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 7.42%
    • Previous update on 8/18 up 12.76%
    • Currently up 15.87%
    • Dividends Received: $23.10
    • No significant news last week.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-28-33.png

    CWH
    • Been in since 8/6
    • Target was 26.84%
    • Previous update on 8/18 was up 6.32%
    • Currently down 2.43%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • There was a large down day where I was away from my desk, bad luck on a rare entire busy day where I was not around for the entire trading day. Dropped way through my stop. I watched it the next day and saw some recovery so decided to hold on until I saw further issues. That drop found some support multiple days so I added on to my position for a "separate trade" while averaging my cost down. Will have much less leniency on this new positions support though and will pull the trigger quicker if we have to dump it. My new cost basis is $31.17. RV stocks were lower due to blowout shipments in July according to a seekingalpha headline.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-32-28.png

    KO
    • Been in since 4/20
    • Target was 25.9%
    • Previous update on 8/18 up 1.24%
    • Currently up 2.81%
    • Dividends Received: $86.10
    • Coca Cola announced business restructuring and therefore job cut plans this past week. I've drawn a new trading range in the chart.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-35-5.png

    LOW
    • Been in since 4/21
    • Target was 35.8%
    • Previous update on 8/18 was up 70.35%
    • Currently up 79.53%
    • Dividends Received: $59.40
    • Lowe's had a positive earnings report. No other significant news. New highs made and back-to-back days of resistance at $170.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-36-39.png

    MCD
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 26.28%
    • Previous update on 8/18 up 21.33%
    • Currently up 23.66%
    • Dividends Received: $72.50
    • Need to start watching this one closely for exit or another target price break through. In today's fed-driven market though, it's hard to conceive pulling out of anything I'm in. Lawsuits going on with McDonald's involving racism.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-37-36.png

    NFLX
    • Been in since 8/17
    • Target was 20.43%
    • Previous update on 8/18 up 1.32%
    • Currently up 14.61%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • Great progress since entering in this one 2 weeks ago. Over 2/3rd of the way to my target. Netflix released a few shows free to non-subscribers such as Stranger things. Netflix released good subscriber numbers even though people are getting back to work.
    upload_2020-9-1_11-40-26.png

    USAS
    • Been in since 9/1
    • Target was 29.67%
    • No previous update
    • Currently down 0.57%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • Details for this one are one post above. No need to type again.
    Account Value: $124,081.82 - Up from $119,312.12 last update
    Cash: $11,257.79 (9.1%)
     
  10. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Your hypothesis seems founded on a Democrat controlled government completely stopping fed involvement in the market. Is that fair?

    I believe politicians from all parties understand market lust and the need to keep markets healthy. It seems to me, the most Democrats would do is slowly reduce government redistribution of funds into the market over time. Debt and deficit be damned.

    One thing that seems certain is government money will stop flowing on November 3, if Republicans lose control of government. Democrats won't be able to restore the cash fountain until January.

    On the other hand, it appears that Republicans will retain control, as long as there is a single Republican anywhere in government. AOC seems to be one of very few Democrats with a spine.
     
    #190 TomB16, Sep 14, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2020
  11. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I've posted it elsewhere, but there's many ways it can play out. I don't know how you arrived at my hypothesis completely stopping fed involvement in the market. Maybe I worded it poorly and am biased in my own re-reading of that quoted comment.

    What I expect, if Biden is elected, is a SHORT-TERM pullback. Like a fear pullback. Fairly significant one, with the premise being that there will be at least some expectation by many of a return to "normalcy" where the fed has LESS involvement. I don't - and nobody should - expect that a Biden presidency will mean the fed is completely going to abandon the market. I believe if/when the fed "returns to normal", it will be over a multi-year period to maintain the market, where they slowly pull the fake money out and let real money take it's place over time.

    If Trump wins, I still think there will be a pullback, under the pretense that they can slow down the fed again, because he no longer needs to prop it up as much as it is now in order to help him get elected - he will have already won in this scenario. Not sure where I posted it, but my view is something along the lines of:

    Biden win: short-term significant pullback, longer term healthier market
    Trump win: short-term smaller pullback, longer term slightly healthier than now but longer term less healthy than putting a more "normal politician" in the white house
     
    TomB16 likes this.
  12. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I appreciate the clarity. Thanks.
     
  13. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    If you disagree, feel free to comment ;)
     
  14. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    I've shared my ideas but I don't hold them with any conviction.

    This is a case where I really appreciate reading the opinions of people I respect here on Stockaholics.net.

    There will be a psychological market reaction and I fully understand my lack of authority in this regard. You are undoubtedly far better equipped to predict this event with your background in trading and technical analysis so I respect your position over my own.

    I think I see the problem.... somebody is not trying to stuff their opinion down everyone else's throat and that's completely disorienting in a discussion forum. You might even say "dirty pool". :D
     
    T0rm3nted likes this.
  15. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I have said, and still will be pulling my money out of the market before the election. If I had to guess, sometime around mid-october to beat the rush. I figure, worst case I'll miss a few percentage points gain, best case I save myself a lot of money. I did the same thing pre-COVID (pulled out in Feb after seeing China and Italy explosions), BREXIT, and 2016 election. Wasn't right on all of them, but the risk/reward just doesn't seem worth it to leave it all in, when I can simply just put it all back in a little bit later.
     
    Dan Thunderbolt and TomB16 like this.
  16. TomB16

    TomB16 Well-Known Member

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    Let's clear the air a bit.

    You and I can never be adversaries. We can be lone wolves, and to a large extent, we always will be. In investing, it's each person for themself. We can also chose to cooperate by pooling our resource on any given issue.. We will tend to do this on a situational basis. As for us being adversaries, that would be entirely pointless.
     
  17. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I hope I wasn't giving off an adversarial vibe, moreso just trying to create discussion. We may have clashed a few times when you first joined the forum, but I respect your opinion here greatly now since more discussion has been had.
     
  18. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Haven't updated in quite some time. Been a lot more busy at work as well as home and was sick for a few days as well. Will be interesting to see what's changed here since my last update. The large drop the market had was in a time where I hadn't really looked at the market for a few days, so that hurt quite a bit because I had no opportunity to get out on the way down to protect profits in many of my holdings. The plan is still to make what I can before the election and exit entirely, temporarily.

    AAPL
    • Been in since 4/21.
    • Target was 21.64%
    • Previous update on 9/1 up 97.82%.
    • Currently up 69.97%.
    • Dividends Received: $60.68
    • The stock split was complete and saw some gains very short-term from that, but then those took a dive. Apple followed the market down and has started to recover but not the way I'd hoped. I've given back a ton of gains on this, and others. No major news for Apple in the last week.
    upload_2020-10-2_10-50-43.png

    COST
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 7.42%
    • Previous update on 9/1 up 15.87%
    • Currently up 17.57%
    • Dividends Received: $23.10
    • Costco also fell with the market, but has recovered nicely, almost back to the high point before the fall. Earnings were reported last week and saw a fall in stock price, but strong earnings.
    upload_2020-10-2_10-54-5.png

    CWH
    • Been in since 8/6
    • Target was 26.84%
    • Previous update on 9/1 was down 2.43%
    • Currently down 1.15%
    • Dividends Received: $109.31
    • I've very clearly missed opportunities on this volatile stock. I could have exited a couple times and re-entered and made quite a bit of money, now I'm still down just a little bit, but basically even because of the dividends. Looking at the chart, I'll probably cut my target price to about $37.50 for an exit, then re-enter around $28 if we keep seeing that range. No news in the last week besides some generic hype pieces.
    upload_2020-10-2_10-59-19.png

    KO
    • Been in since 4/20
    • Target was 25.9%
    • Previous update on 9/1 up 2.81%
    • Currently up 2.94%
    • Dividends Received: $172.20
    • This one broke out of my trading range to the upside for a short period but returned back in when the market dipped. I'll probably see myself out if it happens again. Looks like Coca Cola is coming out with a new coffee drink, as well as a new alcoholic beverage with Coors.
    upload_2020-10-2_11-1-36.png

    LOW
    • Been in since 4/21
    • Target was 35.8%
    • Previous update on 9/1 was up 79.53%
    • Currently up 79.27%
    • Dividends Received: $59.40
    • Lowe's held up pretty well during the market dip. The 50MA was maintained as support so will probably act as a good stop point if we see a decent dip below it. No significant news in the last week.
    upload_2020-10-2_11-4-42.png

    MCD
    • Been in since 5/14
    • Target was 26.28%
    • Previous update on 9/1 up 23.66%
    • Currently up 29.02%
    • Dividends Received: $145
    • Still above target here and watching for exit.
    upload_2020-10-2_11-6-31.png

    NFLX
    • Been in since 8/17
    • Target was 20.43%
    • Previous update on 9/1 up 14.61%
    • Currently up 6.45%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • Gave back a lot of the gains I had on this one when the market dipped. A recovery has started but a decent pullback today.
    upload_2020-10-2_11-9-27.png

    USAS
    • Been in since 9/1
    • Target was 29.67%
    • Previous update on 9/1 was down 0.57%
    • Currently down 14.53%
    • Dividends Received: $0
    • This one admittedly got away from me on those few days I was away from the market so I missed my exit. Sometimes an automatic stop loss that executes itself is the right answers, other times it's not. This is one time it would have. Since then it has hovered around the 200MA so I'm watching that as support.
    upload_2020-10-2_11-14-46.png

    Account Value: $121,633.09 - Down from $124,081.82 last update
    Cash: $13,108.57 (10.8%)

    -----------------------------

    Reviewing the above - Apple, Netflix, and USAS have been what has hurt me. Admittedly, some of this was stubbornness, but the majority was choosing the wrong days to avoid the market and the news because of spending time away from the computer and with family. Bad timing. I also made one trade of the S&P during this last month where I hadn't posted an update. Resulted in a ~$450 gain.

    upload_2020-10-2_11-17-24.png

    Should be back to normal now and posting updates in a more timely fashion as trades happen.
     
  19. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    I have been preoccupied most of this week with my 3 year old who broke her leg at school falling off the playground on Monday. Haven't had much time to monitor anything, so I sold USAS for a 17% loss, which was my own fault. I should have stuck to my original stop as I mentioned a few posts back, but when you mostly ignore the market for a few weeks, you'll miss things like that. And for those who want to see the kids leg, it's in spoiler tags below in case you're queazy. Broken tibia and fibula.

    upload_2020-10-9_7-43-51.png

    upload_2020-10-9_7-44-10.png

    upload_2020-10-9_7-48-22.png
     
  20. T0rm3nted

    T0rm3nted Moderator
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    Was late to close out most of my positions by like 3 weeks. Right idea, wrong timing. I made a good amount back last 2 days though, and now I'm 100% cash.

    upload_2020-11-3_14-35-21.png
     

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