@Cy McCaffrey Thank you. My parents bought me a ledger and "Tap Dancing To Work". I share them as much for my own benefit as for anyone reading this. I have no funds to commit to a real portfolio so it is the most logical thing to do under the circumstance.
Daily Update #5 In short Since I have nothing to report I will instead review how the portfolio is currently faring in the market. It is also the 8th year anniversary of Lehman brothers filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy which marks a significant moment in the recent financial crisis. Highest Performer: AAPL I am by far the happiest with. I had the most conviction with it and I have seen the best result which correlates nicely to a well-thought out investment. I purchased at $95 and it is now $115. I originally planned to reduce the position size to 8-9% after it reached around $110 but I do not think this is necessary as I have no positions I desperately need to add to (apart from the possibility of one). Lowest Performer: WFC is down 5% and 0.82% from my initial investment and position size increase (of 1.5%). I will review how much I want to increase this position or sell depending on the next week. I do think the price will eventually recover It is just a matter of deciding if the capital required to increase the position is best used in WFC. I will review this position at the weekend.
Daily Update #6: Portfolio Review In short I have sold out my position in WFC of 2.5%. Increased position in At&T by 0.5% Weekly review of my portfolio. Portfolio Review https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yB0bzsc0ZNBP5Vkt6f2wVj9S0MhCh93yfqnszdbH6TI/edit?usp=sharing Instead of including the buy, sell, current price and weight I will only include weight, ticker and profit/loss. Additionally I have borrowed Rohit's spreadsheet and am using it track the portfolio and positions. Current Positions: Ticker - Profit/Loss (%) - Weight (%) JPM - 8% - 3% GS - 9% - 2% AAPL - 20% - 10% BRK-B - (-)2% - 5% SIEN - 0.2% - 0.5% PSX - 0 - 5% PSX - 2% - 1% BAC - (-1%) - 2% T - 0% - 1% T - 0.2% - 0.5% NFLX - 9% - 2% F - (-)2% - 1.5% F - (-)0.5% - 1% TWLO - 2% - 6% LSXMK - 0% - 2% KO - 0.1% - 0.5% NTDOY - 27% - 1% Current Portfolio Return: 2.93% Closed Positions Return: 2.67% Total: 5.6% S&P500 Benchmark: 0.05% Current Holdings (%) CASH($) - 60.5% SHARES(NYSE/NASDAQ) - 39.5% Annualized ROR forecast (From 10/7/2016): 33% Please ask any questions, we are currently on course to thrash the market! Yipee 5 hours of economics on school days and 15 hours of economics on weekends is paying off!
Daily Update #7 In short I have added a new position of 2% in ALK. New Position: ALK - Alaska Air Group The Company operates through three segments: Alaska Mainline, Alaska Regional and Horizon. Its Alaska Mainline segment operates the Boeing 737 part of Alaska's business. It offers north/south service within the western United States, Canada, Mexico and Costa Rica, as well as passenger and dedicated cargo services to and within the state of Alaska. It also provides long-haul east/west service to Hawaii and cities in the mid-continental and eastern United States from Seattle. Its regional operations consist of flights operated by Horizon, SkyWest Airlines, Inc. and Peninsula Airways, Inc. The regional fleet operated by SkyWest consists of over eight CRJ 700 aircraft and approximately five E175 aircraft. Its Horizon segment operates regional aircraft. Horizon operates a fleet of turboprop aircraft. Horizon's operating fleet consists of approximately 50 Bombardier Q400 turboprop aircraft. There is no other approach needed to be taken to this stock other than looking at the (1) fundamentals will clearly reflect a great buy opportunity. Althought the PEG ratio is above 2, there is very little debt and the gross profit margin is good. Future growth forecasts show an increase in revenue growth and wall street analysts are bullish on the stock. This, to me atleast, seems like the closest "Warren Buffett Buy" I've found. I originally came across the stock when I was reading S&P Global The Outlook report which mentioned about ALK as a good value buy. I have since restumbled upon it after looking on various stock screening sites. Because of the great fundamentals it seems like a good buy and hold stock and the dividends will provide safety of principal during the mid-short term period of investment. I will start the position of as a 2% investment however I will most likely increase this if the price falls any lower. I will review the stock at $80 price range.
Daily Update #8 I have no information to report as I am currently sitting tight in anticipation for the Fed Rate Hike Announcement at 2:30pm EST Tomorrow. Can't wait to see what happens and react quickly to the market. No matter what the outcome this will be a pivotal point and potential trading opportunity for everyone. Can't wait to talk in the discord chat.
Daily Update #9 In short I have added 0.5% to my initial position in brk.b stock. The share price has fallen 1.6% since initial purchase. I have also opened a new position in ORCL of 1%. New Position: ORCL - Oracle So after the fed conference press today after the FOMC meeting in the morning, I have decided to increase my exposure in growth sectors such as Technology. I was initially looking to buy into sector index funds but I feel my portfolio is sufficiently diversified and minimal capital is invested to reduce risk of a market correction coming. I have very little time to talk about the reasoning behind the stock but I hope to in due course. I will review the stock at around $45.
Daily Update #10 I currently do not have enough time to do a full indepth of analysis of each position I add, but after the fed rate hike announcement I have decided to increase my exposure to the market from 38.5% to 45-50%. This is because I fear lagging behind the market. The new positions are: (1% NKE, 0.25% GLD, 0.25% BKE, 2% WMT). All of these stocks were found through screening stocks, comments and news.
Since my last entries I have tamperered marginally with the portfolio, removing some of the swing trades and adding a new value investment (AXP). My portfolio has shot up almost 2% this last week with NFLX and AXP. I have consistantly had lower than 60% invested in shares and the rest as cash (as to not udefeat the purpose of the exercise). My portfolio is on track to beating the market and then quite some for the year which for me, as a novice, is an outstanding achievement of which I am very proud of. Having said this, I do believe a market correction is a probability rather than a possibility. In the coming months (up to and then after the presidential election) I am planning to sell positions when I believe they have reached their intrinsic value and will also look to increase exposure on shorting the SPY S&P500 ETF. I aim for less than 40% in shares and 15-20% shorted on the s&p500. I will now go through the current portfolio positions: Ticker - Weight (%) - Gain (%) NFLX - 5% - 35% AAPL - 5% - 22% GS - 2% - 14% JPM - 3% - 13% ALK - 7% - 14% DB - 2% - 12% SIEN - 0.5% - 8% AXP - 7% - 8% BAC - 1% - 6% BAC - 2% - 5% GOOG - 3% - 3% PSX - 1% - 3% AMD - 1% - 3% WFC - 3% - 2% PSX - 5% - 1% KO - 0.5% - 0.5% LSXMK - 2% - 0.3% KO - 0.5% - (-)0.3% F - 1% - (-)1% T - 2% - (-)1% F - 1.5% - (-)3% If you wish to view the closed positions: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yB0bzsc0ZNBP5Vkt6f2wVj9S0MhCh93yfqnszdbH6TI/edit?usp=sharing Since I began my project "paper trading" I have been able to gain 8% (4% realised profits) with minimal invested capital. I am currently spending alot of time studying economics and finance through the open yale courses and reading books. If anyone manages to get this far, I would urge them to look into investing in AXP as it has a significant upside of at least beyond $70 possibly even as high as $80.
Last Diary Entry So I have managed to gain around 21% Since I started the paper trading fund. Whilst I have very much enjoyed the work i have decided it is not truly beneficial for me as dedicating time more to my academic studies is more important. I however, be working on a blog (that I will not advertise) on value investing which will have in depth analysis of a couple of stocks on a monthly basis. Here is the current portfolio: GS BAC JPM WFC NFLX T AXP ALK AAPL IBM PSX KHC HCA F GOOG If you want to see previous positions and the weighting and percentage profits then you can go to the spreadsheet posted in previous posts. Thank you.
