Welcome Stockaholics!

We are a new and fast growing financial forum! Sign up for free and let's talk stocks!

  1. Do you want to help develop this community? We are looking for contributions from investors and traders like you! What stocks do you follow? What is hot right now? Sign up and get in on the ground floor of the newest, fastest growing financial forum!
    Dismiss Notice
  2. You will notice a live chat widget on the right. Click in to join us and lets hear about how you nailed that last UWTI trade!
    Dismiss Notice

The Bear Thread

Discussion in 'Stock Market Today' started by bigbear0083, Apr 1, 2016.

  1. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,634
    Likes Received:
    6,500
    Some October Weakness Common in Pre-Election Years
    [​IMG]
    It certainly did not take long for the market to trigger Octoberphobia this year. Tuesday’s soft manufacturing report was at least part of the trigger. DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have already declined over 2.6% and its just the second trading day of the month. Tomorrow’s Non-Manufacturing ISM report and Friday’s jobs report could sooth some of the current recession fears and warrant close attention. However, market weakness in October, even in pre-election years is common. Our recent post showed October ranking second worst of all month in pre-election years.

    October’s tepid history in pre-election years can also be seen in the following seasonal pattern charts. The only real notably difference between this year and past pre-election years is weakness has arrived earlier. Looking at the black line in each chart, the average pre-election year October pullback has been around 3% for DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ. A larger pullback this year would not be out of the question considering trade, growth and political uncertainty. If economic data proves resilient, then the usual end of year rally enjoyed in past pre-election years will likely materialize.
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.
  2. bigbear0083

    bigbear0083 Content Manager
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 29, 2016
    Messages:
    18,634
    Likes Received:
    6,500
    Market Atones On Yom Kippur
    [​IMG]
    Although not an official market holiday, Yom Kippur is observed by many New York area schools and many Jewish colleagues will also spend time observing the holiday with family and friends. Their absence can dampen trading volumes as positions are squared ahead of the holiday. This year Yom Kippur begins at sunset today on Tuesday, October 8, 2019 and ends tomorrow Wednesday October 9, 2019.

    Over the past 21 years the day of Yom Kippur (or the next trading day) has been up slightly more than 50% of the time for DJIA and S&P 500, but NASDAQ has been down 14 of the last 21 years. There have been some large declines that result in average losses across the board. More recently DJIA and S&P 500 have been up 7 times in the last 10 years (NASDAQ up 4 of 10) on the day. The day after is not much better, down 5 of the last 10 and 3 of the last 5.

    Yom Kippur’s proximity on the secular calendar puts in the volatile period prone to declines from about mid-September to mid-October.

    Happy New Year and Shana Tovah to all! To those observing we wish you an easy fast.
    [​IMG]
     
    Onepoint272 likes this.

Share This Page