The Long Term Investor

WELL.......my view is not a secret.

I dont think the splits will have any impact on the markets tomorrow in general. My view is that Apple lost momentum beginning last Wednesday. I think the MEDIA stupidity and inaccurate information about the deadline date to be shareholder of record for the split caused the majority of trading and speculation in the stock to happen before the actual split date.

As to BOTH Tesla and Apple.......at this point the split and reduced share price is a neutral event from here going forward. If anything.......I expect that both stocks will suffer some going forward.........as often happens after a split. The NEXT big events that will drive Tesla will be announcement of inclusion in the SP500 and battery day. Battery day will either reveal some new information that drives the stock........OR........there will not be anything that is not already baked in to the stock price and there will be no impact.

AT the moment........futures are UP by 144 points.

 

WOW......Apple, Amazon and Tesla are driving my portfolio today. At least.......so far.

No regret on ending my Apple trade when I did.........I am not into greed. AND......I still have plenty of long term Apple stock.......so I CHEER the company on.........like everyone else that owns it.

We have a LONG WAY to go to the close.........but.........lets make some money today.

I continue to be fully invested for the long term.......as usual.....in spite of the probable turmoil of the upcoming election. I will simply HOLD through that event......whatever it is. In the LONG RUN it will simply be a minor SQUIGGLE on a TEN YEAR chart of the SP500.......just like this virus situation.

 

I have never seen anything like Tesla before..........except perhaps MSFT between 1990 and 1998. This is not normal.

 

Looks like the NEW DOW is not too great compared to the old Dow. Without the changes and the Apple split the Dow would probably be better by over 100 points today.......STILL......a loss but probably about half as bad. The REALITY is......the Dow is just not a meaningful average anymore and is not really a relevant index to measure your performance against.

TODAY........I had ONLY four stocks UP.......NVDA, TSLA, AMZN, and AAPL.....out of 12........but........those four stocks put my accounts STRONGLY into the green today. PLUS.......a big beat of the SP500 by 1.35%.

To show everyone how CRAZY the run up in TESLA is..........I purchased on June 23, 2020. ONLY 6 weeks ago. Those shares are UP by............+148% in 6 weeks. SOMEDAY there is going to be a BIG drop in Tesla shares. BLOOD in the streets of Robinhood. Following battery day?

 

HERE is some shocking news. I SOLD my.......less than 1........Bitcoin. I got about $4000 out of it......a nice profit. I had a little over 1 Bitcoin, but sold some in the past. I got tired of having that $4000 tied up.......when......I could put that money into stocks and funds instead. The BIG reason I sold is.......if something happens to me the odds of anyone realizing that I had an account at Coinbase.....or being able to access the account with all the security......is about ZERO. Add in the HASSLE of trying to cash in an account of a dead person and........that money would probably NEVER be recovered. I guess I will be kicking myself when bitcoin goes up to $250,000 some day.

BUT.....if I put that $4000 into TESLA.....it will probably hit $250,000 in about a year the way it is going.

REALITY CHECK......I will NOT be putting any of that money into Tesla. The stock is......CURRENTLY......so overpriced and speculative....I will just ride it out with the shares that I now have after the 5 for 1 split. I am now up to 60 shares post split.

ONCE AGAIN........the markets are KICKING ASS. One GIANT PARTY with a bottomless punch bowl. (thanks to the FED) Thank God I am a long term investor. I will ENJOY the ride.....but when things even back out........I will STILL enjoy the ride.

IMAGINE all the people that are siting on cash and waiting for the PULL BACK buying opportunity to get back in. They have missed this HUGE rally since March 23. This is ONE reason that I am fully invested ALL THE TIME. If you miss out on this sort of rally.......your odds of being anywhere near the total returns of the SP500 are.........ZERO. You will SEVERELY UNDER-PERFORM the unmanaged averages. YOU have to be IN THE MARKETS to actually make money.

YOU also have to be invested in a REALISTIC and REASONABLE manner. AND......YOU.......have to understand market and individual stock PROBABILITIES (fundamentals) as well as your personal RISK TOLERANCE. Put all these variables together.......along with human behavior and brain function......and.......you have an impossible situation for the MAJORITY of investors.

 

Thank you.....Zukodany......I think. Dont come looking for me when the market collapses after the election. JUST KIDDING......about the market collapse.......sure it might happen depending on who wins and how long it takes.......but......I am in it for the long term as usual so I will be changing NOTHING.

Roadtonowhere08

We all have to do what is right for us and for our risk tolerance and financial situation. This IS NOT intended as advice to you or anyone else.........BUT:

I learned a long time ago that I was nearly ALWAYS better off to simply pull the trigger and go all in all at once compared to waiting for some entry point or the next correction. The research ALSO supports this. There are many examples throughout this thread where I have done just that. I KNOW that there is not a single one that I regret.

How will you know the next correction is here?
How will you know where we are in the next correction?
Even in a correction will prices be lower than today?
How much will you lose in OPPORTUNITY gains by waiting compared to investing today?
etc, etc, etc, etc.

Here is one take:

Should You Wait for a Stock Market Correction Before Investing?

https://moneyqanda.com/stock-market-correction-before-investing/

Why Waiting For The Big Correction Isn't The Best Strategy

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucem...ing-for-stock-market-correction/#59c91ce5bd0d

Investing a lump sum all at once is what research says—but that isn’t always the best plan

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/i...but-that-isnt-always-the-best-plan-2018-04-26

With the Market at Its Peak, Should You Wait to Invest?

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/i...et-at-its-peak-should-you-wait-to-invest.html

Invest Now, Or Wait? The Results Of My Decision

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4289088-invest-now-wait-results-of-decision

SO........BOTTOM LINE.......of course........whatever you do will turn out to be wrong. Same reason that buttered toast ALWAYS lands on the butter side if you drop it. This is a NO WIN situation for the investor reading this and........ME as the poster.

PLEASE......DO NOT change what you plan to do based on this post. Follow your instincts and needs. Otherwise you will end up SEVERELY whip-lashing yourself and will never be able to get over second guessing yourself.

Just read this stuff in preparation for the........NEXT TIME.

To me the KEY FACTOR......is being a long term investor. It is EASY for me to invest ALL IN AL AT ONCE.....even in a ROARING bull market......if I have a time horizon of at least 5-10 years. That amount of time will........TOTALLY ERASE.......any short term losses from investing at a peak. In addition the gains from being fully invested in the markets........over time........WILL ALSO.......make up for TEMPORARY short term losses. BUT....that is just me.......I have high risk tolerance and a very long investing experience.

AGAIN..........DO NOT DO SOMETHING YOU ARE NOT TOTALLY COMFORTABLE WITH BASED ON SOME POST ON THE INTERNET.

 

What are your tech positions Zukodany? I cant remember........senility.

 

Nearly forgot........BIG TIME GREEN today. ALSO.......as has become normal lately.......another big beat of the SP500 by .56%.

We are in the MIDDLE of a historic SUMMER RALLY.

Speaking of all in all at once investing. One of the relatives that I handle their account is coming into a little over $400,000 later this week. I have been debating.........in my mind....... investing it all in all at once versus the risk of the election. NOW, with their consent.......I intend to invest it ALL IN ALL AT ONCE.......probably this Friday. I figure that it is two months till the election and the potential gains FAR outweigh the risk.

I am comfortable doing this because.......I know how they think and they will NOT second guess me........because........I have built up their account into over $2MIL over the past 20 years. AND.......they have a time horizon of at least 10-20 years and.......they think like I do.....even though they don't handle their own money.

 

In line with the above......I just looked at the Schwab Magazine that came in the mail today and:

The Law of Averages and Your Portfolio

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/law-averages-and-your-portfolio

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

After months of fast drops and sudden rises in the market this year, investors may have all but forgotten 2019’s record runup of nearly 30%. But recency bias—or the tendency to believe something is more likely to happen again because it happened recently—highlights the need to look beyond the present when it comes to your long-term investments. “Those deep valleys don’t look quite so scary if you’re able to zoom out from the day-to-day and see the big picture,” says Mark Riepe, head of the Schwab Center for Financial Research.

The fact is, the S&P 500 returned an average of about 10.2% annually from its inception in 1926 through 2019 (see “The bigger picture,” below). In other words, even the market’s darkest days—including three Black Mondays (10/28/1929; 10/19/1987; and 08/24/2015) and numerous other market corrections—couldn’t knock the index off its long-term march upward.

The bigger picture
Despite nearly a century of extreme peaks and valleys, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual return of 10.2% since its inception.


Source: Schwab Center for Financial Research. Data from 1926 through 2019. Note: Annual returns from 1926 through 1970 is represented by the Ibbotson U.S. Large Stock Index, which comprised the same components as the S&P 500 and its predecessor indexes.

If you have a hard time stomaching volatility, Mark’s advice is to limit how often you check your long-term accounts. “You shouldn’t focus on that money every single day,” Mark says. “At best, you’ll drive yourself crazy. At worst, you’ll be tempted to sell when markets turn against you.”

Of course, you shouldn’t completely ignore your investments, either. “Review your statements and adjust your holdings as necessary in order to maintain your target asset allocation—assuming your financial situation hasn’t fundamentally changed,” Mark says. “If it has, revisit your financial plan.”

As for external events, remember that, good or bad, this too shall pass. “Just as you shouldn’t make plans based on the good times lasting forever,” Mark says, “neither should you make plans assuming the bad times will last forever—because they won’t.”

AND

You will notice from that SP500 chart that the SP500 is positive about 70% of the time........through its history.

IF.........you have plenty of time........the odds are STRONGLY in your favor.