A bit of AMZN news today. Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky to step down https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/amazon-web-services-ceo-adam-selipsky-to-step-down.html
And of course the news of the day.....that I actually dont care about. Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/ppi...oint5percent-in-april-more-than-expected.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The producer price index, a measure of what producers receive for the goods they produce, increased 0.5% in April and was up 2.2% on a 12-month basis, the biggest gain in a year. The core PPI also rose 0.5% compared with the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, climbing 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain. Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April, putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. The producer price index, a gauge of prices received at the wholesale level, increased 0.5% for the month, higher than the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. However, the March reading was revised from an initially reported 0.2% gain to a decline of 0.1%. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, the core PPI also rose 0.5% compared with the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. Excluding trade services from that core group showed a 0.4% increase on the month and 3.1% on a 12-month basis, the highest level since April 2023. On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year. The core PPI inflation was at 2.4%, the biggest annual move since August 2023. Both numbers were in line with estimates from Reuters. Stock market futures were around breakeven following the data while Treasury yields were mixed. “Sticky inflation looked downright stuck this morning after a much hotter-than-expected inflation reading. But with last month’s numbers revised lower, this report may not have been as much of an upside shock as it first appeared to be,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing for E-Trade from Morgan Stanley. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, rising 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain, while the final demand goods index increased 0.4%. The services increase was the biggest monthly gain since July 2023, the BLS reported. Portfolio management helped drive the services costs, rising 3.9% on the month. Goods prices as measured by the PPI rose 0.4%, reversing a 0.2% decline, led by a 2% increase in the energy index, which included a 5.4% surge in gasoline prices. The final demand index for food fell 0.7%. The latest inflation data comes with the Federal Reserve on extended hold regarding interest rates. Policymakers have said in recent days that they expect inflation to trend lower through the year but need more evidence that it is convincingly on the way back to the central bank’s 2% goal before cutting rates. Recent data points have not been encouraging. The consumer price index, the companion to the PPI that measures what consumers pay rather than what producers receive, has had higher-than-expected gains through the first part of 2024, fueling fears that inflation is stickier than economists and policymakers had expected. Similarly, the Fed’s preferred measure, the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index, also has been running hot and showing inflation running just shy of 3%. All of the various inflation measures are showing price pressures well ahead of the Fed’s target. In addition, various consumer surveys have shown expectations running hot. The New York Fed’s monthly survey released Monday showed the one-year inflation outlook at 3.3%, the highest since November, pushed in good part by expectations that housing-related costs will continue to increase." MY COMMENT Meaningless unreliable data. The revision of the data from March from a 0.20% gain to a 0.1% loss shows that this data is totally unreliable and meaningless. In addition the annual data is in line with expectations at 2.2%. So I dont put much emphasis on this data. Basically it does not change much in terms of where we are right now.
A mild but green open today....as we continue with a listless and drifting market. OBVIOUSLY the news today is not impacting the markets to any great extent. It is telling that the yield on the Ten Year Treasury is down today. It looks like a mixed market for me and in general today. At least there appears to be...."potential"....for things to improve over the day.
Of course the PRIMARY economic driver and issue is IGNORED as usual.....out of control government spending and debt. the FED is totally MUTE on this issue....of course. I dont care how many rate hikes they do....it is meaningless when government is out of control and working in a totally opposite direction. Same with the FED trashing the stock markets constantly. Other than hurting investors and retirement savers....a total waste of time.....this will not have any impact on inflation. In other words....same old, same old.
OH WELL....at least there is some fun in the markets right now. GameStop stock gains nearly 100% as meme-stock market returns with a vengeance https://finance.yahoo.com/news/game...arket-returns-with-a-vengeance-113640704.html
LOL....I love a HEDGE FUND guy talking about making a mockery of the markets. Hedge-fund manager Boaz Weinstein says meme stock rally makes ‘mockery’ of investing https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/hed...e-stock-rally-makes-mockery-of-investing.html I cant see the article because I dont pay for this content....but....I love that headline. The kettle calling the pot black.
I continue to personally sit near or at an all time high.....waiting, waiting, waiting. The life of a long term investor. At +24% so far this year as of last Friday.....I am siting pretty good for the first five months of the year. AND....actually....even though I dont see much said about it..... so is the SP500. Right now it is +10.39% year to date. That is basically the long term average ANNUAL total return.....achieved in just the first five months of this year. As I predicted at the start of the year....I still see the SP500 at 5,500 to 5,600 by year end. Just into the year by five months.....the current gain is BIG and BOLD. I consider the current return on the SP500 as a STEALTH and DISRESPECTED number. I rarely see anyone mention this....for what it is.....a HUGE first half to the year for this Index. The actual gain in the SP500 as well as the fact that is NOT accompanied by EXUBERANCE is a good thing for the markets going forward over the rest of the year.
Can't believe that this thread reached 1000 pages. I remember when I started following this thread in May 2021, it was around 300 pages in. Hats off to all you guys, especially W, for all your effort and consistency in keeping this thread alive.
Thank you Strathmore. I have enjoyed all the conversation over the past.....nearly 6 years. I appreciate you and all the others that participate here.
Exactly as said above. These reports come out and all of the attention they receive....only to be revised at some point. And the small amounts one way or the other, are just noise. Aside from all of the typical investing noise, we have done well this year.
Yes....those that are invested in the big Indexes and those that are in rational and realistic stocks for the long term....have done well this year. And...on the "micro" level we are seeing some firming of the markets today.....primarily in the NASDAQ. I see the current markets as pretty hard for some...perhaps most....... people to sit through. Even though the returns have been good to date....... there is a strong underlying "FEELING" of disconnect and fear within investors. It is like everyone is waiting for the next shoe to drop. Why is this? The many new investors? The many young investors? The disconnect of the markets from traditional analysis and fundamental data in favor of rumor, innuendo, speculation, and opinion? The lack of any sort of MEDIA recognition and reporting of truth and reality to anchor the markets? All the above? WHO KNOWS. I just know that I am currently "feeling" a lot of discontent and a lot of uncertainty in the markets and investors. BUT...at the same time we are at or near new all time highs in the averages. We have put up good gains year to date and continue in a BULL MARKET. Earnings have been good for at least the last 12-14 quarters....in spite of all the fear-mongering. I guess this is just the....current.....NORMAL.
Pretty Crazy time for sure. Great companies are getting punished for great earnings and less than earth shattering guidance and some guy on the internet posts a picture and meme stocks double. I will say the amount of money lost by firms shorting the stock is staggering. The only real positive I see is hopefully a couple hedge funds will be forced to close their doors.
I think most "long term investors" probably couldn't tell much about the daily or weekly markets pulse. There was a study, maybe last year or so, about the majority of investors not making any changes...panic wise or trading etc. Most continued their contributions and if I remember correctly, even increased the level of contributions. Most in my circle do just that. Contribute to their plans, add a little more when they can and simply go on about living. Good point about the deluge of 24/7 coverage, whether it is financial or news in general. If one subjects themselves to that, pretty soon we begin to think and believe whatever narrative is prevalent at the time. Big financial management, experts, pundits, forecasters and so on....all need us to believe that investing is too complicated to go at it alone. They need investors to be twitchy, nervous, and somewhat fearful.
I had a nice day today. A good medium level gain. I only had two stocks in the red today.....HD and CMG. I also got in a small beat on the SP500 by 0.18%. THE GOOD TIMES CONTINUE TO ROLL.
Glad to see this as a shareholder.....especially if it.....actually works. Google debuts a slew of generative AI features as fight with rivals OpenAI, Microsoft, and Apple heats up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goog...i-microsoft-and-apple-heats-up-175635303.html
News of the day. Inflation pressures ease in April as consumer prices rise at slowest pace in three months https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...t-slowest-pace-in-three-months-123222215.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US consumer price increases cooled during the month of April, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday morning. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% over the previous month and 3.4% over the prior year in April, a slight deceleration from March's 3.5% annual gain in prices and 0.4% month-over-month increase. April's monthly increase came in lower than economist forecasts of a 0.4% uptick. The annual rise in prices matched estimates, according to data from Bloomberg. On a "core" basis, which strips out the more volatile costs of food and gas, prices in April climbed 0.3% over the prior month and 3.6% over last year — cooler than March's data. Both measures met economist expectations. Investors now anticipate two 25 basis point cuts this year, down from the six cuts expected at the start of the year, according to updated Bloomberg data. Markets rose following the data's release, with the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) falling about 6 basis points to trade around 4.38%. "The lack of a nasty surprise this time around is welcomed," Bankrate senior economist analyst Mark Hamrick wrote in reaction to the print. Still, Hamrick added, "With the 3.4% year-over-year headline increase and 3.6% in the core (excluding food and energy), these remain irritatingly high. The status of the battle against inflation requires that interest rates remain elevated in the near-term." Following the data's release, markets were pricing in a roughly 53% chance the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates at its September meeting, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. That's up from about a 45% chance the month prior. Shelter, gas prices remain sticky Notable call-outs from the inflation print include the shelter index, which rose 5.5% on an unadjusted, annual basis, a slowdown from March. The index rose 0.4% month over month and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in core prices, according to the BLS. Sticky shelter inflation is largely to blame for higher core inflation readings, according to economists. The index for rent and owners' equivalent rent (OER) each rose 0.4% on a monthly basis, matching March's rise. Owners' equivalent rent is the hypothetical rent a homeowner would pay for the same property. Lodging away from home decreased 0.2% in April after rising 0.1% in March. Energy prices continued to rise in April, buoyed by higher gas prices. The index jumped another 1.1% last month, matching March's increase. On a yearly basis, the index climbed 2.6%. Gas prices rose 2.8% from March to April after climbing 1.7% the previous month. The food index increased 2.2% in April over the last year, with food prices flat from March to April. The index for food at home decreased 0.2% over the month while food away from home rose another 0.3%. Other indexes that increased in April included motor vehicle insurance, medical care, apparel, and personal care. Motor vehicle insurance, a standout in March's report after the category jumped 2.6%, climbed another 1.8% in April. The indexes for used cars and trucks, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles were among those that decreased over the month, according to the BLS." MY COMMENT This should be a good help for the markets today and over the rest of this week. Treasury yields are nicely down and the SP500 just hit an all time intra-day high.....at the open today.
Sounds good to me. S&P 500, Nasdaq rises to all-time highs after light consumer inflation report https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite popped to record highs Wednesday, adding to their strong 2024 performances, as a lighter-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation report. The broad market index gained 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 182 points, or 0.5%, trading within reach of its record levels. The CPI rose 0.3% for the month of April, less than the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.4% monthly increase. The gauge increased by 3.4% year over year, in line with expectations. Monthly and yearly numbers for core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, were both in line as well. The report boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near future. Fed funds futures trading data now suggests a 51.7% likelihood that the U.S. central bank will ease rates at its September meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool. This is up from Tuesday’s 44.9% chance of a rate cut the same month. Stocks have been on a tear this year, as expectations for lower Fed rates and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence — and its potential to boost profits — lifted investor sentiment. The S&P 500 is up more than 10% year to date. That said, the broad market index stumbled in the past month as worries over sticky inflation pressured equities. Those concerns were quickly assuaged by new data and comments from Fed officials indicating rate hikes are unlikely going forward. Market leaders such as Nvidia popped upon the reading, with shares of the GPU manufacturer rising 1%. Yields on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury and 2-year Treasury dipped." MY COMMENT We should....emphasis on...."should".....see a nice rally today. This CPI washes out any negative from the PPI earlier this week. This should help with some of the unease in the markets over the past month.
Even though we have had somewhat of a market pause over the past month....I still believe that the markets BIAS is still to the UP side. YES....the BULL MARKET is still alive and well. It is normal in any bull market to see periods of correction or down markets. It is just part of the process. Some of us...myself included are currently at all time highs. Pretty good for a market pause over the past month. Although that raises the question....did the market really pause....or....was it simply an erratic "feeling" period that hid a slow moving, stealth rally?
NOTHING going on today other than the CPI information and the opening RALLY. NOW....we need to hang in there till the close. No doubt the FED IDIOTS will be out there talking again today. The only other event of much interest that I see this week will be the WMT earnings that will come out before the open tomorrow.
