NVDA continues to slowly push toward its all time high of $974. A good thing for me with it being my largest holding. I started buying the stock in 2021. I was looking at my gains a few days ago.....many shares have a gain in the 500% range. My highest gaining shares are in the 600% range. Earnings come out on May 22. This is probably the most important earnings report left....this time around.
Speaking of a stock pushing up....SMCI....up over 9% today. $75 per share. No doubt following along on the big NVDA gain today.
I consider this a good contrary indicator for the economy, inflation, and the FED. By "good contrary indicator" I mean that I see this as a market POSITIVE for investors. Retail sales flat in April, falling short of Wall Street's expectations https://finance.yahoo.com/news/reta...t-of-wall-streets-expectations-123315122.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The US consumer showed signs of slowing in April. Retail sales were flat in the month, according to data from the Commerce Department, furthering concerns about the state of the consumer amid sticky inflation and higher interest rates. This marked a slowdown from the 0.6% month-over-month increase seen in March. Economists had expected a 0.4% increase in spending, according to Bloomberg data. "The fact that retail sales stalled in April is not necessarily a sign the consumer is spent; but for once at least it does not show continued evidence of an unstoppable consumer," Wells Fargo senior economist Tim Quinlan wrote in a note to clients. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales declined by 0.1% last month; expectations had been for a 0.1% increase. Nonstore retailers, which includes online sales, led the declines, falling 1.2% from the month prior. Sporting goods and hobby stores also declined 0.9%. Meanwhile, sales at clothing and accessories stores rose 1.6% in the month, while gasoline sales picked up 3.1%. Wells Fargo's Quinlan highlighted some one-off occurrences that likely attributed to the declines. An early Easter holiday and an Amazon (AMZN) sales event likely boosted sales in March while their absence in April over exaggerated declines, per Quinlan. "The upshot is many households pulled forward demand, buying a bunch of stuff online in March, so no surprise to see [nonstore retailers] down 1.2% in April," Quinlan. Elsewhere in economic data on Wednesday, a fresh reading of the Consumer Price Index showed US consumer price increases cooled during the month of April, a welcome sign for investors as a string of hotter-than-expected inflation prints to start the year had fueled a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts. Given the Fed's pivot to likely holding interest rates high for longer than initially hoped, economists have been closely watching for any signs of weakness in the US economy. "The moderation in CPI in April is welcomed after a string of elevated readings in Q1 and keeps alive the prospect of the Fed starting to cut rates in September,” Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic wrote in a note to clients this morning. “The weak retail sales in April further lends support to a September rate cut.” Wednesday's retail sales print is just the latest in a string of recent economic data that has shown signs of softening economic growth. In April, the US economy added fewer jobs than expected while unemployment unexpectedly ticked higher and wage growth declined. Other data also showed a contraction in manufacturing activity in April and weekly jobless claims hitting their highest level since August 2023. "Consumer spending is slowing as elevated interest rates weigh on rate-sensitive spending and as the labor market cools," Oxford Economics deputy chief US economist Michael Pearce wrote in a note to clients. "With aggregate balance sheets solid and the labor market cooling rather than collapsing, we expect that slowdown will remain gradual. "The resilience of the economy frees the Fed to focus on the incoming inflation data to guide its rate decisions."" MY COMMENT I consider a bit of consumer weakness a good thing for investors. It will dampen the talk of more rate hikes and help to push the rate cuts. We have a good hot and healthy economy going on right now.....so I see no issue with a bit of softness. I also believe that this little consumer pull back is due to one thing....HIGH PRICES. It would be a good thing if business sees consumers start to pull back and realize that there is a limit to price increases. I am seeing evidence of this all around me on a local level. Demand destruction is happening......at least around me......on an anecdotal level. Of course...there is always the issue of being able to trust this sort of government data. it is constantly being revised up and down.
My account shows a BIG GAIN right now. I have a single down stock...AMZN. NVDA and SMCI kicking butt today. In general a really nice day......but....no guarantee how we close, of course. I do not think the gains are going to fade. If anything the markets seem to be gathering strength today. We will see in a few hours.
I do like much of the economic content here. Milei's Argentina continues turnaround, Lessons for the world There is pain as Milei dismantles the crony capitalist state, But more importantly there is now hope where there was little https://againstcronycapitalism.subs...e&r=7zf8u&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "For most people economics is mysterious. It is a world of magic. For many the Federal Reserve Committee (if they know what it is) is as close to a tribunal of wizards as exists in this world. The Eccles Building (if they know what it is - by the way it’s parked right next to the White House but way harder to get into) is a temple where brilliant, wise minds control the levers of the world’s economy. Economics is inaccessible. It is something that even the well educated but not economically inclined can never hope to really understand. Bull. Economics is the study of supply and demand. (At least that’s how we see it.) Supply and demand are concepts that the typical eighth grader can understand. (Even in today’s public schools.) But many economists insist that economics is not fundamentally this simple, and that their priesthood alone can decipher real economic truth. More bull. Part of the problem can be seen in this blurb from Investopedia. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), 38% of all economists in the United States work for a federal or state agency. Economists are also employed as consultants, professors, by corporations, or as part of economic think tanks. 38% of economists work for government. No wonder so many economists so often sing the praises of government intervention. Don’t get us wrong. Economists can serve an important purpose in the world. Their expertise can be extremely valuable. Sometimes they even get things right. But there is a serious bias within modern economics toward making things as opaque as possible because, and no one will say this out loud, it is in this opacity that the money is made. Your editor is no economist. I write about economics (and other things). But over the years I have learned a thing or two about economists, in Washington particularly. These guys just love running economic models. They adore them. Models are supposed to be windows into the future. They are the computerized sacrament of the profession. Models are at times valuable tools, particularly in the very short to short term and in very specific areas of the economy like, say, oil. But often these windows into the future are not that. Whatever. Let’s just say that economists, many mainstream economists anyway, particularly the ones who still hold to the Keynesian faith, are inclined toward government meddling with the economy when less meddling or even NO government meddling is the actual solution. But these folks want to maintain their positions of power along with their paychecks and no one can blame them, we suppose, for wanting that. Every once in a while there is an economist who makes the case for relatively simple market reality and kid gloves government who gains noteriety. It happens. Mises, Rothbard, Hayek, Friedman come to mind. Usually the old guard sneers at the heretic(s) in The New York Times. Even rarer is a politician who can directly take on the big government economists. Ron Paul was one. Javier Milei is another, and Milei is a head of state who is turning Argentina, a country deeply infected with crony capitalism around" MY COMMENT Sounds exactly like reality to me....in the bold above. If Shakespeare was alive today the quote would be....."The first thing we do, lets kill all the economists".
NICE.....a big fat gain for me today. SMCI UP big by $130. or 15.8%. NVDA up by $33 or 3.58%. I had a couple of lagers today....AMZN and CMG. BUT....who cares when you have a big GREEN day. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.93%. LOVE IT.
The red hot market today. Stock market today: S&P 500 breaches 5,300 as stocks rally to records after CPI https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...cks-rally-to-records-after-cpi-163737320.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks rallied on Wednesday, with all three major indexes closing at record highs as a soft reading on consumer prices fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than expected. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose nearly 1.2%, closing at 5,308.18, above 5,300 for the first time ever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) jumped about 0.9%, or almost 350 points, creeping closer toward the 40,000 level. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) climbed about 1.4%, notching its second record close in as many days. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% over the previous month and 3.4% over the prior year in April, a deceleration from March. "Core" inflation — which strips out the cost of food and gas — also cooled. The relatively cool inflation reading led the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) to fall 4.35%, its lowest level in a month, and sparked new bets on Fed rate cuts as soon as September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, around 70% of traders now expect at least one cut by the September meeting, a notable increase from a week ago. Stocks have ground higher amid rekindled confidence that the US economy is in good enough shape for the Federal Reserve to start bringing down rates from their current historic highs. That optimism has fueled a resurgence in bullishness in the market. Elsewhere on the macroeconomic front, retail sales fell flat — exactly — last month, coming in well short of Wall Street's expectations. Meanwhile, the pace slackened in the frenzied meme stock rally that saw GameStop (GME) and AMC (AMC) prices more than double at one point on Tuesday. Both stocks dropped about 20% on Wednesday." MY COMMENT A really good day today. In spite of the past month of pullback that we have been hearing about.....BOOM....ALL the big averages hit new all time highs. That is exactly how the markets work. They trick you into thinking that there is nothing going on and than....WHAM....they take off. Remember how you feel with your gains today when we are in the middle of the next 6-12 month bear market. I think it is a long ways off....depending on the election.....but it will come. It always does......that is part of the normal market cycle. CELEBRATE the new highs and the gains today. I know I will since I am now at a new all time high. AND...when the next bear market hits and we are down in the dumps.....I will take heart in knowing that there is a great big silver lining being obscured behind the bright light at the end of the tunnel.
I like this little article. CPI’s Wobbles Are Still Noise Up or down, CPI wiggles mean little. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/cpis-wobbles-are-still-noise (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Stocks don’t follow laws of physics, but Newton’s Third Law of Motion seemed to make a cameo Wednesday. Last month, you might recall, the S&P 500 fell more than -1.0% intraday when the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a small uptick in headline inflation. Today, we saw the equal and opposite: an intraday jump just over 1.0% to new all-time highs on the heels of a small inflation downtick.[ii] We think it is all meaningless sentiment wiggles. Investors should consider it all noise. Just as we didn’t see anything earthshattering in March’s small acceleration, we don’t see much of note in April’s slight easing. Headline CPI ticked down from 3.5% y/y to 3.4%, while core CPI (ex. food and energy) slowed from 3.8% to 3.6%.[iii] Rising gas prices were the main culprit for headline inflation’s smaller move, while core goods’ deflation deepened. Services inflation remains higher, easing from 5.4% y/y to 5.3%, with high fuel prices raising transit costs while shelter (and the dastardly owner’s equivalent rent component, an imaginary expense) slowed a smidge.[iv] Basically, a bunch of small moves in both directions evened out to inflation slowing by one tenth of a percentage point. That is it! Yet headlines treat this as if it is more significant than headline CPI slowing from 3.7% y/y last September to 3.2% in October.[v] Or from 3.4% y/y last December to 3.1% in January.[vi] The purported rationale: Improvement effectively rules out another rate hike and perhaps means investors won’t have to wait long for a cut. But we see no logic there. If larger moves to lower levels didn’t make the Fed in a hurry to cut, then why would this wee drop? Especially when the Fed has already seen CPI reaccelerate for a spell? And when it is still above its most recent low, June 2023’s 3.0%? And—most importantly—when the Fed doesn’t even target CPI? Its preferred gauge is the headline Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which so far hasn’t reaccelerated as much as CPI. It has also been below 3.0% since last October.[vii] In our view, nothing in April’s CPI report makes a Fed cut more or less likely. One month’s inflation report doesn’t predict the next. If a single downtick actually makes Fed policymakers confident that the inflation bulge is well and truly behind us, then we need new Fed policymakers. Can we suggest a criterion? People who will look at what actually matters to prices—namely, money supply, which still looks quite disinflationary and did throughout the spring’s CPI wobbles. Other camps argue markets responded so positively because—in conjunction with flat April retail sales and slightly cooler hiring last month—the inflation report supports the “soft landing” scenario. This seems like a rather strange reason to be bullish. Any “landing,” hard or soft, implies an economy in the doldrums. If not crashing, then going nowhere fast. Both scenarios would be a weaker outcome than most folks currently expect. Stocks usually don’t like such disappointment. Ok, maybe we are being too literal. Maybe it is more that people see economic growth slowing a bit and therefore putting less pressure on prices. But we think this stance misses the mark, too. Economic growth rates don’t correlate one-to-one with inflation rates. If they did, stagflation would never have been a thing. Those who see a link think only in demand terms—faster growth means more buying, pushing up prices. Yet growth is increasingly coming from business investment, which is more about increasing the supply of goods and services for sale. That is likely more disinflationary than inflationary. Therefore, we can see a scenario where the economy grows faster than people expect as more businesses go on offense. Alongside weaker money supply growth, we would no longer have too much money chasing too few goods and services. Instead, we would have a reasonable amount of money chasing more abundant goods and services. We think this is where continued disinflation will come from. Not from high rates, which haven’t curbed output or demand noticeably thus far. Not from slowing wage growth, which lags inflation. Not from slowing economic growth. But from the simple, timeless things everyone forgot, which gives them fresh surprise power." MY COMMENT EXACTLY. The obsessive focus on minute moves in economic data is extremely irrational. That is the FED's game....not....a good look for investors to focus on.
On the other hand....even if this stuff is silly and irrational....if it leads the FED to cut rates investors will benefit. I will take any benefit I can get even if the reason is STUPID. Stocks Poised to Soar on Softer Inflation Report As rate-cuts bets rise, small stocks will soar https://investorplace.com/hypergrow...ks-poised-to-soar-on-softer-inflation-report/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Takeaways: April’s CPI report reflected that consumer prices rose just 0.3% month-over-month, less than the 0.4% rise expected by economists. Core consumer prices – or consumer prices excluding food and energy – rose just 0.3%, too. More importantly, the year-over-year consumer price inflation rate dropped from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April, ending a two-month streak of rising inflation rates. The same is true for core inflation rates, which slid from 3.8% to 3.6% in April after flatlining in May. The only real remaining “sticky” part of inflation – the only thing really keeping it elevated – is shelter CPI. But shelter CPI is starting to roll over. Following the release of yesterday’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report, investors have anxiously awaited the next round of inflation data. And thankfully, it turned out to be much more bullish. Indeed, this morning’s hugely important Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in softer than expected, illustrating that inflation is resuming its decline to 2%. And that primes a specific subset of stocks to absolutely soar into the summer. Specifically, April’s CPI report reflected that consumer prices rose just 0.3% month-over-month, less than the 0.4% rise expected by economists. Core consumer prices – or consumer prices excluding food and energy – rose just 0.3%, too. More importantly, the year-over-year consumer price inflation rate dropped from 3.5% in March to 3.4% in April, ending a two-month streak of rising inflation rates. The same is true for core inflation rates, which slid from 3.8% to 3.6% in April after flatlining in May. In other words, inflation is dropping again for the first time since January. And we believe it’s likely to keep dropping for the foreseeable future, too. The Inflation Low-Down One of the best kept “secrets” about CPI is that, excluding housing, inflation is basically already running at the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. That is, excluding housing costs, consumer prices rose just 2.2% in April. The ex-housing inflation rate has now been running roughly at or below 2% for almost a year. That means the only real remaining “sticky” part of inflation – the only thing really keeping it elevated – is shelter CPI. But shelter CPI is starting to roll over. Over the past year, it has steadily dropped from about 8.2% to just 5.5% in April. And this trend of falling shelter CPI is set to continue. Historical analysis shows that shelter CPI tends to lag real-time rent trends – as gauged by Zillow’s Rent Index – by about 12 months. And Zillow’s index has been falling for two years now. That, of course, means shelter CPI should keep falling for the next 12 months. As shelter CPI continues to drop over the next several months, inflation will grind its way back toward 2%. The Final Word For the past several months, the U.S. Federal Reserve has consistently expressed its willingness to cut interest rates once it feels confident that inflation is on a sustainable trajectory back to 2%. And we believe that as inflation resumes its descent to 2% over the coming months, the Fed will find that confidence. It’ll start to talk more about rate cuts. And the market will start to price in more rate cuts for the rest of the year. As that happens, stocks will soar – especially certain small stocks. Just look at the strong relationship that has developed between small stocks and the market’s rate-cut pricing. From July 2023 to October 2023, the market dramatically reduced its rate-cut bets. And small stocks crashed. Then, from October 2023 to December 2023, the market dramatically increased its rate-cut bets, and small stocks absolutely soared. But between January 2024 and April 2024, the market again reduced its rate-cut bets, and small stocks struggled. Now rate-cut bets are ramping back up again. And that should continue as inflation softens over the next few months. As rate-cuts bets rise, small stocks will soar. So, if you’re hoping to potentially make a lot of money between now and this summer, we firmly believe small stocks will offer the best opportunity to do just that. Several of them could even double by the summer – but only the right stocks will skyrocket." MY COMMENT Ok......I agree with much of the above. BUT....I will take a contrary view for discussion. What if they cut rates and the market booms for a day or two and than settles right back into its normal range? What if nervousness over the election erases any and all impact of one or two small rate cuts? What if a couple of small rate cuts is irrelevant to business......which it probably is? I think there is a good chance that rate cuts will in the end turn out to be a big DISAPPOINTMENT. We have been obsessing over it for so long when it happens it will be simply old news and irrelevant. In other words....the markets have already priced it in and have now moved on. I guess we will find out fairly soon in a few months.
I certainly think this is TRUE.....and....was fact about six months ago. At this point....old news. The world skirted a wage-price spiral, though "last mile" risks remain -research https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-skirted-wage-price-spiral-140447193.html
HERE is the great earnings news of the day. Walmart stock pops after earnings beat, retailer surpasses $500 billion in market cap https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walm...sses-500-billion-in-market-cap-133920047.html MY COMMENT BUMMER that I did not buy this stock. It is one that is on my short list to consider since it is a non-tech stock. I would still like to find one or two more potential holdings that are not tech stocks to balance out my portfolio a bit. BUT....I have no plans to add it right now....I am not going to chase after these earnings. A HUGE BEAT. America's largest employer....our largest grocery store....the ONLY real discount retailer left.....a very dominant company with little to no competition in their niche. I do think that the changing demographics of the country strongly works in favor of WMT being a HUGE force in the retail world for at least the next 20 years or more.
We are in the middle of a little rally today. A follow up to yesterday. I am surprised it is not stronger considering the WMT earnings. BUT...I will take any market gain....small or large...over the long term it all accumulates and compounds.
I am however benefiting from the WMT earnings today.......my COST is on fire with a gain of $17 or 2.12% today. I have not looked at my account yet...but with what I am seeing so far it looks like a good start to the day.
Time to sit back and let the day settle in. That is one of my super-powers.....siting and doing nothing. I am talking about investing.....not daily life. Although my wife might have an opinion on that topic. I do like how the markets are slowly strengthening today. Especially the SP500 and NASDAQ. THE DOW.....over 40,000......a new milestone.
I have to post this....I just saw on Varney that over the past one year.....the value of all publicly traded stocks is UP by.....drum roll please.....$10.97 TRILLION DOLLARS. Talk about a rally.....and....much of it has been a stealth rally having to endure constant negativity and fear-mongering. How many people are still siting and waiting for that....MYTHICAL....entry point? As I sit here Varney is talking about the......"crown Jewels"...of the American economy...all of which I own except for META. As I said yesterday .....CELEBRATE and BASK in the glow of market success. There is nothing wrong with feeling good about your own success as an investor. YOU deserve it.....because YOU have earned it with your hard work and effort to get to where you are as an investor. YOU have had the guts to put your money at risk in the markets and believe in what you are doing. Let the good times serve as motivation going forward in life. YES....it is possible to get ahead.....and....secure the future for you and your family.
YES.....I know the below is not sustainable...but it is FUN. I was just looking at one of my kids accounts that I manage. Up till late June of 2023 the account was 100% in the SP500. Starting in Late June of 2023 and through December of 2023....I moved the account into individual stocks. The account is now at 21% individual stocks and 79% the SP500. The stocks are....AMZN, COST, HD, MSFT, NVDA, CMG, AAPL, GOOGL. From late June of 2023 till now.....the new stock portion of the account is.....+31%. A HUGE gain for holdings that have been in place for on average about 4-9 months. THE POWER of big cap investing in the ICONIC companies of the American economy. YES....unrealistic returns.....but a a good start...considering that this account is very long term. With my kids and their spouses accounts.....on a combined basis.....now slightly below $500,000.....(they would be above $500,000, if their car had not crapped out necessitating using about $52,000 for a new car).........I believe I have successfully shown them what can be done with long term investing. My other kid and their spouse are also long term investors for life. I believe my wife and I have now achieved one of our primary duties as parents....to financially educate our kids and prepare the next generation for success. Even though I manage my kid and spouses accounts....I discuss it with them and they are involved in every decision.....they are learning by participation and are very actively involved.
My portfolio is a micro-view of the larger markets at this moment....backing off from...earlier gains. I am now seeing AMZN, MSFT, CMG and HD in the RED at this moment. We have also backed off from the gains in other stocks like NVDA even though they are still green. This is common in mid-morning and East Coast noon time market action.....some times it fades and other times it escalates into the close. A wait and see day from here. That is what I get for bragging about the markets.....I am being punished.
OK.....now I see who and what killed the market rally today....a TRIPLE WHAMMY. Fed Officials Suggest Interest Rates Should Stay High for Longer https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-mester-suggests-interest-rates-160000693.html "Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, speaking separately Thursday, argued it may take longer for inflation to reach their 2% target." MY COMMENT After all....we cant have any exuberance of fun in the stock markets. God help us if stocks go up.....it might actually help people to feel better about the economy. We cant have any of that sort of nonsense. Plus a little help earlier in the day from our pal.....Jamie Dimon. Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Lot of Inflationary Forces in Front of Us’ https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-sees-lot-inflationary-124731510.html
See above for the sorry tale of the close today. RALLY KILLERS at work. A waste of what would have been a perfectly good day for investors. TYPICAL. I ended the day with a small and insignificant loss today. At least I had three stocks UP today..... GOOGL, COST, and AAPL. I lost out to the SP500 today by.....0.05%. Basically a flat day in the markets. We live to fight another day....tomorrow....Friday. Lets hope there is some PENT UP market power after the distorted, mild loss, close today that was engineered by the FED IDIOTS. Personally I would put the......"probability"....of a market gain tomorrow as good. Today was a short term trader and FED reaction sort of day. Absolutely meaningless to longer term investors.
