A good open today......even though the DOW is now down. The NASDAQ in particular is doing nicely for the market only being open for 15 minutes. In about three or four hours we will have some clue how the day is going. We need to get past the open first, the mid morning dip, and the East Coast lunch hour....as well as any FED talkers that come out of the woodwork and the media. In other words.....a typical day.....but at least a good open.
I guess regarding the above post.....the FED MORONS....are already out there today. WTF.....they cant even wait till a few hours into the day. Fed's Barr: Inflation data 'disappointing,' tight policy needs more time https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-barr-inflation-data-disappointing-125737266.html It is just funny at this point......the FED TALKERS.....are out there in the media spouting their constant BS.....EVERY DAY.......every single day. They will NEVER stop. The only solution will be for everyone to simply ignore them and make them irrelevant. By constantly listening to them, publishing what they say, giving them attention....we prolong the PAIN of their constant BS.
I wonder if they will cut prices here in the USA? Apple slashes iPhone prices in China amid fierce Huawei competition https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-slashes-iphone-prices-china-092211870.html
WELL.....the NASDAQ has now hit another ALL TIME HIGH. It is a big week with the third largest company in the world....NVDA....reporting earnings on Wednesday after the bell. I am looking for a good BEAT....but....would simply settle for a nice stock split.
As to my post above regarding demand destruction. Are consumers pulling back on spending? It depends on which CEO you ask https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/consumer-pullback-ceos.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points The latest round of earnings reports shows some companies struggling as consumers grow more selective with their spending. Higher prices and interest rates are still lingering, putting pressure on shoppers’ wallets. Companies like PepsiCo have warned about a weak low-income consumer, while Delta Air Lines and Chipotle Mexican Grill have benefited from their high-income customer bases. With higher prices and elevated interest rates stubbornly sticking around, Chipotle burrito bowls and European vacations are still on the table for many consumers. But Big Macs and kitchen remodels aren’t. The most recent round of quarterly earnings reports helped to sort companies into largely two camps: McDonald’s, Starbucks and Home Depot were among the consumer-centric companies that surprised investors with weaker-than-expected results, saying customers had pulled back on their spending. Others, like Sweetgreen and Delta Air Lines, bucked the trend and reported growth. The takeaway? Consumers have become more selective about how and where they spend their dollars. “Consumers continue to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices in their day-to-day spending,” McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said on the company’s conference call in late April. For more than two years, consumers have dealt with sharply rising prices. This year, most companies expect that their pricing strategies will return to their pre-pandemic approaches, thanks to stabilizing commodity prices. But that doesn’t mean the actual prices seen on grocery store shelves or restaurant menus will fall, and shoppers are feeling that pinch. The consumer price index rose 3.4% over the last 12 months through April, according to Department of Labor data. On Tuesday, a day before the monthly CPI report, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is falling more slowly than expected, which likely means the central bank won’t be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Making matters worse, many consumers have run through the savings they accumulated during the pandemic when they were collecting stimulus checks in place of traveling. Instead, many are paying their everyday bills with credit cards as they face higher costs for gas, rent and groceries. The average consumer owes $6,218 on their credit cards, up 8.5% year over year, according to a TransUnion quarterly report out last week. Cautious consumers Aurelia Concepcion, 57, a case manager in New York, said she is planning only essential travel this year, drawing the line at visiting family in Georgia and Ohio. “Everything is too high ... taxis, rent.” Concepcion says she avoids restaurants: “It’s too expensive. I’d rather prepare my own food.” Concepcion isn’t the only consumer changing spending habits. Executives have been warning about a more cautious spending environment for awhile. But it’s finally starting to show up in some companies’ quarterly results. KFC, Pizza Hut and Starbucks were among the restaurant companies that reported declining same-store sales in the most recent quarter. Home Depot’s revenue was weaker than expected because potential customers are putting off renovations until interest rates fall, executives said. And Apple iPhone sales fell 10% in the tech company’s latest quarter, suggesting consumers weren’t upgrading to the latest version of the smartphone in the patterns that they have in the past. “Some of the things that have seen the biggest run-up in prices over the last few years are items that confront people on a daily basis: the cost of eating out, the cost of groceries and the costs of fuel and gasoline and rents,” said Columbia Business School economics professor Brett House. “Regardless of whether inflation is slowing amongst those goods, even with lower inflation, prices remain very high, and people get a daily reminder of that.” Big-box giant Walmart said last Thursday that shoppers are prioritizing buying food and health-related items over general merchandise, like home goods and electronics. The retailer has reportedthat trend for several quarters now. Finance chief John David Rainey told CNBC that Walmart’s grocery business has gotten a boost from the widening gap between restaurant prices and the cost of cooking at home. Lower-income consumers are struggling more than other demographics. They couldn’t save as much during the pandemic, and evidence suggests that they’ve exhausted those savings, according to House. On top of that, rent prices have surged, and low-income consumers are more likely to rent than own. PepsiCo, for one, particularly called out a weaker low-income consumer. The Gatorade owner saw volume for its North American beverage business fall 5% in the quarter. “The lower-income consumer in the U.S. is stretched ... [and] is strategizing a lot to make their budgets get to the end of the month,” CEO Ramon Laguarta told analysts on the company’s conference call in April. Pepsi is leaning into promotions and discounts to lure back the low-income shopper. Other companies are similarly hoping deals will attract more customers. McDonald’s, king of the low-price fas-food segment, plans to start offering a $5 value meal on June 25. What pullback? While some CEOs have said that consumers are growing more cautious, others — like those in the airline industry — have celebrated strong and persistent spending. “Consumers continue to prioritize travel as a discretionary investment in themselves,” Ed Bastian, CEO of Delta Air Lines, the most profitable U.S. carrier, said in an interview in April. Delta and its rival United last month each forecast earnings ahead of analysts’ estimates for the second quarter. Both carriers offer sprawling global networks and have benefited from a rebound in international travel in the wake of the pandemic, particularly to Europe and popular destinations in Asia for U.S. travelers like Japan. Both carriers have predicted record summer travel demand. Those airline trends align with a broader consumer shift that started after pandemic lockdowns: spending more money on experiences rather than apparel or electronics. “We’re still spending disproportionately on activities and services rather than on goods,” House said. Delta and United are also capitalizing on travelers who have been willing to pay up for more expensive seats, like first class or premium economy. U.S. airlines have been racing to add more high-priced seating to their planes and grow lounges for top spenders. Inflation hasn’t hurt high-income consumers as much as it has the budget-conscious, giving them more room to spend. Higher-income consumers have also bolstered fast-casual restaurant chains, like Chipotle, that come in at a slightly higher price point than the cheapest options. The burrito chain’s same-store sales grew 7% during the first quarter, fueled by a 5.4% increase in foot traffic. Chipotle has a strong perception of value among diners, CEO Brian Niccol said on the company’s conference call. Executives have also previously emphasized that most of its customers come from higher-income brackets. Even Walmart have been attracting consumers with deeper pockets. As customers pay more for groceries, the discounter has attracted more affluent customers and stolen market share from rivals like Target, which has historically been more popular with wealthier shoppers. The company also credited its remodeled stores and expanded merchandise on its website for appealing to households that have a more than $100,000 annual income. Target is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Exceptions to the rule Not all companies with higher-income customer bases have seen the same strong demand, however. Corporate misfires can also lead to disappointing sales, even if their shoppers aren’t necessarily pulling back on their spending. For example, athleisure brand Lululemon’s U.S. sales lagged in its most recent quarter, which CEO Calvin McDonald attributed in part to a shortage in key product sizes and not enough colorful items. Then there’s Starbucks, which has always positioned itself as a premium coffee brand. The coffee giant announced a surprise decline in its U.S. same-store sales and lowered its full-year forecast, sending its shares tumbling. While CEO Laxman Narasimhan gave a laundry list of factors explaining the weak quarter, including a more value-minded consumer, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore wrote in a research note that a social media boycott might still be the primary culprit. And Peloton’s latest report was the latest in a string of disappointing results for the company. Earlier this month, the pandemic darling fired its chief executive and announced plans to lay off 15% of its staff as fewer consumers bought its pricey equipment or its much cheaper fitness subscriptions in its latest fiscal quarter. “With the economic outlook for consumers unlikely to improve across the balance of this year, Peloton’s trajectory on the product front is unlikely to change course ... But worryingly, app subscriptions are also under pressure – most likely because consumers are reviewing their expenses more carefully as they suffer from subscription fatigue,” GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders said in emailed comments." MY COMMENT It is starting and it is going to snowball. I dont care what other excuses they make....prices are simply TOO HIGH. Companies pushed them too high and are killing their business. They may not admit it....but....the only way they are going to maintain market share and pull people back into their business is....cut prices. The good news for consumers is...once price cuts start......they will snowball. Others will jump on board....very quickly. When pricing power collapses it happens quickly and seemingly out of nowhere. Just wait till Black Friday and Christmas.....I bet we will be seeing BIG discounts this year.
HERE is an entire article composed of charts. Most dealing with inflation and the current trend. LOTS to see here. US Inflation Outlook: It’s a start https://assets.realclear.com/files/2024/05/2426_deutsche.pdf MY COMMENT A fine review of where we are right now...in charts. I find much of this data pretty encouraging....actually.
That is about it for what I am seeing today. I dont even have to look at my accounts to know that I am experiencing a BIG start to the day. I have only three stocks down right now....HD....and, minor holdings....SMCI and PLTR. NVDA is UP by +2.51% or +$23 per share on speculation and expectations of earnings. At this moment NVDA.....at $947.32.....is extremely close to the all time high closing price of $950.02. All of the commentary that I am hearing and seeing today on NVDA is very positive. At the close last week I saw a number of my accounts at ALL TIME HIGHS. RIDING THE WAVE......RIDING THE WAVE.
I have been out all day....and now...I see that the markets tried to turn on me. I ended up with five stocks UP and five stocks DOWN. The DOWN stocks.....COST, AMZN, PLTR, CMG, and HD. The remainder held on to give me a very nice gain today led by NVDA being up by +2.49%. I beat the SP500 today by 0.89%. A good start to the week.
I guess he got tired to being WRONG all the time.......or......all of us amateurs on this board seem to know more than the professionals. Wall Street's biggest bear flips, raises S&P 500 price target by 20% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall...ises-sp-500-price-target-by-20-142228247.html
About all you need to know about the markets today. Nasdaq closes at a record on Monday as Nvidia shares rise 2% https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Nasdaq Composite rose on Monday, powered by gains in Nvidia and other tech companies. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged the broader market as JPMorgan Chase led losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.65% to reach an all-time intraday high and close at a record level at 16,794.87. The S&P 500 inched up 0.09% to 5,308.13. The 30-stock Dow fell 196.82 points, or 0.49%, to 39,806.77. Shares of JPMorgan declined 4.5% as CEO Jamie Dimon signaled during the bank’s annual investment meeting that his retirement may be sooner than previously stated. Dimon also said the bank would not repurchase shares at their current levels. The stock is up about 15% year to date. Artificial intelligence names are due to steal the spotlight this week. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Nvidia’s fiscal first-quarter results due Wednesday afternoon to gauge the strength of the AI-led rally. Nvidia shares on Monday gained more than 2% on multiple bullish analyst calls that highlighted the company’s preeminent market position. Several Wall Street firms also increased their price target on the chipmaker ahead of its earnings report, suggesting shares could gain as much as 30% from their current levels. The stock is up 91.4% in 2024 alone and is 203.2% higher over the past 12 months. Nvidia’s market cap is now the third-largest in the S&P 500 at $2.3 trillion. Options traders are also pricing in an approximate move of 8% on earnings for the chipmaker. Stocks are coming off a strong week, with the S&P 500 posting a four-week winning streak as it notched record highs. The Dow also rose for a fifth straight week. The market rally has more room for growth from its all-time highs, according to UBS strategist Vincent Heaney. “While a range of economic and geopolitical risks remain, we think solid economic and earnings growth, the prospect of lower interest rates, and rising investment in AI should create a supportive backdrop for equities for the rest of this year,” Heaney wrote in a Monday note." MY COMMENT My main take from the above.....a number of Wall Street professionals are doing damage control and window dressing by now raising their estimates for NVDA. Are they hoping that their clients dont notice? We are now down to TWO market days till the NVDA earnings. It should be a fun week. EVERYTHING is coming together for the markets. The FED is done.....earnings were GREAT....the economy is good.....we are in a BIG bull market. It is basically a GOLDY-LOCKS market situation and should be for a long time. Of course.....the BIG QUESTION....how many of the "experts" and "professionals" saw any of this happening and called it? How many have their clients positioned for what is happening and has been happening since about mid year of 2022....the early start of the bull market. How many are LONG TERM INVESTORS?
Seems like sort of a BLAH open today. BUT...we cant be up every day. I have not looked at my results yet but I can guess since NVDA is down at the moment. I see that I have five stocks UP and five stocks DOWN right now by looking at the ticker. The NVDA earnings are so close to happening....I would not be surprised to see a pause for the next two days in order to get to that event which will determine where we go next.
This sounds like a "bad" story....but....they are simply pausing buying the current top chip to wait for the new, more powerful Blackwell chip, which will start to ship to customers later this year. Amazon has transitioned their orders to the new chip. Amazon's cloud unit pauses orders of Nvidia's most powerful chip, FT reports https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazons-cloud-unit-pauses-orders-134219461.html
Of course our......"friends"....are right back at it early today. Fed Gov. Waller wants ‘several months’ of good inflation data before lowering rates https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/fed...ood-inflation-data-before-lowering-rates.html "Fed Gov. Christopher Waller.....Tuesday....he does not think further interest rate increases will be necessary. Cuts are probably “several months” away, ........" MY COMMENT Probably true. Rate hikes are over and probably done with. AND....cuts are probably a few months away....some time in about September to December. Nothing new here.....but...it does of course generate a headline on a major financial news site.
The market today. Nasdaq falls, pulls back from record highs https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The Nasdaq Composite fell slightly on Tuesday, easing from the record levels seen in the previous session, as Nvidia dipped a day before its key earnings report. The tech-heavy benchmark lost 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 61 points, or 0.15%, while the S&P 500 was marginally higher. Nvidia shares pulled back 1% prior to its earnings report Wednesday after the close. Analysts are expecting the semiconductor giant to post another strong batch of results. Palo Alto Networks also dropped more than 5% on Tuesday. While beating expectations for both lines in the fiscal third quarter, the cybersecurity company delivered current-quarter guidance that was only in line with consensus forecasts of analysts polled by LSEG. Those moves come after a mixed day on Wall Street. The Nasdaq notched intraday and closing records, while the Dow fell on the back of steep declines in JPMorgan Chase shares. Traders now turn their attention to commentary from Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he wants to see “several months” of supportive inflation data before lowering rates. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic are also due to speak. “The disinflation story is still intact,” said Keith Buchanan, portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. “The market’s going to continue to drift higher if earnings can confirm the stickiness of the corporate profitability,” he added. But “that could lead to a market where we could be somewhat range bound, perhaps even drift."" MY COMMENT Nothing at all going on in the markets today. We are certainly drifting at the moment. I see that we have at least THREE FED PEOPLE that are going to be out there today getting their egos stroked.....by talking. I have never seen a FED that so incessantly talks. This bunch can never shut up.
I do believe there is potential for a GREEN market today. I see that the SP500 is now in the green and the NASDAQ is basically at "0"...unchanged. On a slow and drifting day like this it is just going to take 2-4 hours for any sort of market direction to settle in. AND...since market direction clearly continues with an UPWARD BIAS the....."probability"....is for a green close today. Keep in mind that all in all.....we are doing GREAT....the markets are doing great. The averages are hitting all time highs. Many investors are hitting all time highs. For the past 8 weeks we have been in a time period where the markets seem like they are not doing much.....but.....it has been a STEALTH RALLY.......and.....a definite continuation of the bull market.
It is such a DULL DAY so far...that I had to look at my account earlier than usual. I see that I have a small gain. I continue with five stocks UP and five stocks DOWN. The UP stocks are.....SMCI, MSFT, AAPL, COST, and GOOGL. It is also a positive that my losses in NVDA and CMG are tiny and have been improving over the morning. So....a day that is STILL full of potential....unrealized for the most part....at the moment.
Since there is really nothing going on today.....here is the latest info on EARNINGS. EARNINGS INSIGHT https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs.../Earnings Insight/EarningsInsight_051724A.pdf (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Metrics Earnings.......with 93% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results, 78% of S&P 500 companies reported a positive EPS surprise........60% of S&P 500 companies reported a positive revenue surprise. Earnings Growth: For Q, 2024.......earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 5.7%.........the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported.....since Q2 2022 (5.8%). Earnings Guidance: .........54 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 37 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance." MY COMMENT Not much is being said about earnings at this point in time.....since they were very good.....and are nearly over with. Good news.....is not newsworthy. At least for the financial media. BUT...for us investors......money in the bank.
AND.....with nothing happening today....it is nice to see that the yield on the Ten Year Treasury is down. It is currently at 4.414%. On another money front.....GOLD is at a nice high price right now....$2,429. SILVER is also way up recently at $32.17. My little HOARD of gold and silver....that sits in my siblings big safe....is at an all time high in value.....about $72,000. Although as a non-productive...non-compounding asset.....I still dont consider it an investment. At best......it is simply somewhat of an EMERGENCY FUND.
Well that is all I have today. At least right now all three of the big averages are NOW in the green. Even NVDA has now turned positive....for the moment. A good time for me to just sit and wait it out. LETS MAKE SOME MONEY TODAY.
