It's looking like another wasted day in the market. I guess we will see what the last hour brings. Tomorrow after close will start the real movement.
It is now looking ok Tiresmoke. Since you are BIG into NVDA you will like that it is now UP by $3.44.....with fifteen minutes to go. I knew this story would be picked up by the short term traders and AI trading platforms. The headline is fear mongering on many sites. Nvidia Customer Hits Pause, Lam Stock To Split. AI PCs To Drive Chip Sales. https://www.investors.com/news/tech...ks-ai-chips-qualcomm-lam-research/?src=A00220 MY COMMENT Of course this is really a non-issue since NVDA can not produce enough of the chips for demand anyway....so there are customers lined up for the chips that AMZN does not want. AND....the did not cancel their order...just moved it to the new chips. PLUS.....I am sure a smart company like NVDA knows very well how to manage their order flow.
I am anticipating the close by one minute. The markets had a nice POP in the final ten minutes. Very nice. ALL the averages in the green to close the day....and...near their highs of the day. Even NVDA got involved closing at its high of the day. Good news for Tiresmoke.
A nice solid medium level gain for me today. I had five stocks UP and five DOWN....but....three of the down were my junior positions PLTR, SMCI and CMG.....so not a big impact on my gain today. The other two down companies were HD and AMZN. I also got in a good little beat on the SP500 today by 0.28%. We are now at NVIDIA EVE.....tomorrow is earnings day after the close. Last time we got earnings from NVDA it turned out to be kind of a non-event......even though it was a HUGE BEAT. Unfortunately with the expectations being sky high....even a big beat might just lead to just......YAWNS.
The closing victory we had today in the last hour of the markets. Nasdaq, S&P pop to records as Wall Street waits for Nvidia earnings https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...reet-waits-for-nvidia-earnings-200120991.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US stocks closed in a sea of green on Tuesday with record highs for both the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) and benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC). The positive moves come as investors await heavily anticipated earnings results from Nvidia (NVDA), set for release after the bell on Wednesday. The Nasdaq recovered from earlier session lows to rise about 0.2%, capping off Tuesday's trading day with another consecutive record close. The S&P 500 (^GSPC), which also reached a record, rose about 0.3% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed roughly 0.2%. Nvidia's upcoming report is expected to spur a big move in its share price and jumpstart stocks more broadly. Meantime, a wave of quarterly reports from retailers offered some insights into the state of the consumer and health of the economy. Lowe's (LOW) sales dropped less than expected as cash-strapped Americans continued to spend on small repairs, while Macy's (M) shares gained after the department store chain's earnings beat a low bar. Investors have also listened closely to speeches from Federal Reserve officials as a dearth of economic releases starves the rate-cut debate of fuel. Fed governor Chris Waller said Tuesday he needs to see several more months of favorable inflation data before lowering rates, echoing the higher-for-longer policy stance of other central bank leaders in recent weeks." MY COMMENT I believe the closing price on NVDA today is a ALL TIME HIGH.....even though I dont see anyone saying it. There was a lot of pent up market energy at the close and the BULLS won out in the end.
Since it is all NVDA all the time....I will say: We have seen a BIG RUN UP in NVDA over the past month. On April 22, 2024 the stock was at $795. NOW....one month later.....on May 21, 2024 we are at $954. That is a MASSIVE.....20% gain...... in only one month. So any post-earnings jump is icing on the cake. For those that like to wait for entry points.....did you catch NVDA at $475 on January 2, 2024.....or.....$674 on February 21, 2024? Or, are you still waiting? I still hear many people talk about waiting for various entry points. The problem is when there is a good entry point for something...it is usually accompanied by FEAR. Your brain will play tricks on you every time. AND....like everything in the markets....what is NEVER clear at the time is shockingly clear in hindsight.
The early demand destruction driven.....scramble for market share....continues to pick up steam. Wendy's follows McDonald's with budget-friendly combo Wendy's rolled out a $3 breakfast combo for inflation-weary consumers https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/wendys-follows-mcdonalds-budget-friendly-combo MY COMMENT I have no doubt that we are now going to see this behavior escalate over the rest of the year. For companies it is going to be ALL ABOUT......value for the customer. Business is all about MONEY. And here is why we are seeing these price behaviors....."fast-food chains see sales slip due to more people eating at home to save money".
Wow, I’ve been away for a couple of weeks and ALOT has changed here.. like… W buys chipotle!! I’ve been thinking about it when they announced the split but figured let me not “gamble” anymore as the boat is currently smooth sailing as is. So no added positions for me for the time being. And geez, W, I figured you’d HATE chipotle since TX has such an amazing authentic Mexican cuisine… would kinda be like me telling NYers to invest in Pizza Hut. heck, the food trucks in TX alone have a more authentic Mexican cuisine than chipotle. How about that barbacoa… mmmmmm mmm mmm Keep on riding the wave everyone, we’re all doing GREAT!
S&P hindsight in .jpg form: 1. Get on the train 2. Wait 3. Profit Not sure how tomorrow will go for NVDA, but I see no reason to not bet on them for the foreseeable future.
Regarding entry points . . . I've owned quite a few of my holdings for 20-35 years . . . obviously if I've held them that long they are ones that have worked out . . . and while I'm a value hunter like everyone else . . . not one time 20-35 years later do I care what the (exact) purchase price was. It would have worked out whether bought at the annual high or low. I keep that in mind when I buy things today . . . I don't need to wait for it to go down $5 . . . if I think it's a decent value I just go ahead and buy it . . . over decades it will either work out or it won't.
So true goldendad. My mom owned many of the same stocks that you probably do.....and she held them for over 50 years....from about 1964 to about 2014. In the end some of the annual dividends were INSANE.....$25,000 per year.
YEP Zukodany. Most of my reasoning on CMG is back in this thread if you care to see why I bought it. The stock split is icing on the cake. I am seeing it a s a long term hold....judging by their stock price history over the past 10 years. At the same time....I have NEVER even been inside a Chipotle other than checking out a couple when deciding to buy. I dont foresee myself eating there any time. It is not what I consider Mexican food (Tex-Mex).
Well boys, today is the day! NVDA earnings at close. I have no immediate plan to sell anything in the near future though I would like to sell some eventually this year and accelerate my house payoff, my only dept. On paper it doesn't make sense to payoff early but the piece of mind and the freeing up of monthly income should increase my freedom/stress level. Yesterday was my 5th highest close ever. I am slowly closing in on my ATH from a couple months ago. $25k a year in dividends W! Talk about some decent passive income, pair that up with Social Security and that alone will keep the lights on and food on the table so the basic needs are met. Stories like that are how I based my portfolio at inception. I bought the old, established large cap companies with a dividend. I believe my account was the minimum allowable to start, $2000 and consisted of Ford, GE and Alcoa. I really started to put money in and get serious around 2015 where I shifted to chip stocks. So my portfolio is a pretty good that even starting at near zero, with a little luck and a lot of patience you can do pretty well.
YES.....my mom had some GREAT BIG CAP long time holdings....PM, KO, PG, GE, MSFT, CL, PEP, XOM, COST, 3M, JNJ, etc, etc, etc. That $25,000 to $30,000 in dividends that I reference above was only one stock.....PM.
I hear this sort of thing all the time. It is usually just an excuse or someone that has no real knowledge or experience investing. Or....sometimes a person that did something really dumb in the markets and got punished and as a result will never invest again. No, The Stock Market is Not Rigged Against the Little Guy https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/05/no-the-stock-market-is-not-rigged-against-the-little-guy/ (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Here’s a take from Dave Portnoy: A lot of people share these views. It’s the kind of thing that gets people riled up. The market is rigged! It’s one giant casino where the house always wins! That narrative tends to accompany stories like this: Investors who jumped into the latest online frenzy over shares of the struggling video game retailer lost $13.1 billion in just three days from the mania’s high, says an Investor’s Business Daily analysis of data from S&P Global Market Intelligence and MarketSurge. That loss from the May 14 high now far exceeds GameStop’s (GME) total value of $6.8 billion. I’m not sure that measuring market cap losses from the peak of a meme stock mania is the right way to think about gains and losses. But some people will use stories like this as proof the stock market is rigged against the little guy. Look, if you’re looking to get rich overnight, the stock market probably does feel like a casino where the house always wins. The stock market is rigged against you if you’re looking for easy money The big money has more brainpower, more computing power and better information than you. And it’s still difficult for many of them to beat the market. Sure, there are one-off lottery tickets but the stock market is for patient people. When I was in middle school every month or so we would have an assembly in the gym. Those beefy guys who would tear phonebooks in half. Someone from the D.A.R.E. program. Maybe a musical act if we were lucky. One time, a guy came in to shoot free throws and offer motivational advice. This guy didn’t even look like a basketball player, more like a middle-aged dad with a polo shirt tucked into his 1990s-era Nike warm-up pants. But he stepped up to the line and knocked down free throw after free throw as we all watched sitting cross-legged around the three-point line and baseline. He shot hundreds of free throws, all while giving a well-thought-out speech about the benefits of practice and process. There wasn’t a single miss. Not even close. It was the same exact form every time. The same set up. The same release point. The same follow-through. It was impressive how he never deviated from that process. The same theory applies to the stock market. If you don’t deviate in the short-run, you’re bound to be better off in the long-run. This is the historical win rate for the S&P 500 since 1950 over various holding periods: If the stock market is a casino, it’s the only one in the world where your odds of success increase the longer you play the game. On a daily basis, the stock market is only a little better than a coin toss in terms of gains and losses. The further you extend your time horizon historically, the higher the chance of seeing gains. If you try to outsmart the stock market over the short-term, it will feel rigged against you. Ironically, there has never been a better time to be an individual investor — index funds, ETFs, targetdate funds, tax-deferred retirement accounts, zero dollar trading commissions, automated investing and access to more information than ever before. In many ways, individuals have a leg up on Wall Street. You don’t have a benchmark you need to beat. No committees or donors to keep happy. You don’t have to answer to outside investors about meaningless short-term performance numbers. The market is rigged against Wall Street over the long run in favor of the little guy! They’re the ones who are forced to play the short game. The only dumb money is those investors who assume there is easy money available in the short-run. Making money isn’t supposed to be easy. The stock market is hard. But it works for patient investors with a long enough time horizon." MY COMMENT Same message as always. Rational investments held for the long term WILL win out in the end over any sort of trading. It is all about being a long term investor. Going for the BIG SCORE....is a losing game. It sounds good when you read some sensational story....but.....in reality the vast majority of people will be much better off as long term, rational, investors. Those that say the markets are rigged.......are usually guilty of extremely poor investing judgement....and....caused their own little disaster to happen.
As usual.....I feel sorry for the poor house hunters that are struggling to find and buy a home. US existing home sales fall for second straight month in April https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-existing-home-sales-fall-140156904.html
This is a HUGE warning and message for business.....especially any sort of retail business. Target earnings miss the mark as inflation-battered shoppers avoid buying things they don't really need https://finance.yahoo.com/news/targ...g-things-they-dont-really-need-103105766.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Target (TGT) missed the earnings mark in the first quarter. Blame inflation-battered US households, its execs say. The "biggest challenges" Target is hearing about from its shoppers are "inflation in food and household essentials," chairman and CEO Brian Cornell said on a call with reporters detailing first quarter results. Cornell added that inflation is putting a "strain on the consumer wallet." Target shares fell 7% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, on the heels of the results. He went on to say sales trends are "normalizing" in categories where inflation has eased. The strain weighed most heavily on Target's bread and butter — physical stores — where traffic and the number of transactions fell in the quarter. The expansive supercenters continued to see sales weakness in discretionary departments such as home goods. As a result of the store sales slump, Target CFO Michael Fiddelke says the company is planning the business "conservatively" for the balance of the year. "We anticipate fiscal 2024 consensus is likely to remain largely unchanged, though Target shares could underperform given EPS/operating income slightly below consensus and generally heightened expectations, including better-than-feared results in recent quarters," said Stifel analyst Mark Astrachan following the earnings release. To right the ship and close the gap with better-performing rival Walmart (WMT), Target unveiled a plan on Monday to slash prices on 5,000 items like milk, meat, and bread. The company has already lowered prices on about 1,500 items, and this will continue into the summer. etc, etc, etc......" MY COMMENT We are at the limit on prices going up and companies thinking it will not have any impact. Pressure is going to build.....severely....on companies that have driven prices to a level that consumers refuse to pay.
Feels like the same open as yesterday. All the big averages are near FLAT after nearly an hour. Like yesterday....I suspect it will take about half the day for the markets to show any real direction. BUT....that is ok. Every day does not need to be a gain. Siting even is fine with me considering the first two days this week and the NVDA earnings that will come after the close. As to NVDA......just like all the earnings this time around....it is the GUIDANCE that is going to be key to what happens with the price of the stock over the short term.
You would have to be living under a rock to not be aware of this.....but....just in case.....here you go. Nvidia stock retreats from record high ahead of crucial first quarter earnings report https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-first-quarter-earnings-report-133813203.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) stock retreated from a record high on Wednesday ahead of its first quarter earnings report set for release after the bell. The report is expected to be one of the most consequential for investors this year, as Nvidia has been at the center of the AI boom driving markets over the last 18 months. Wall Street expects Nvidia to report revenue and profits that rose more than 200% and 400%, respectively, from the prior-year period as the company experiences a surge in demand for its chips amid the AI boom. Analysts expect adjusted earnings per share to total $5.65 on revenue of $24.69 billion, according to data from Bloomberg. The company reported adjusted EPS of $1.09 on revenue of $7.19 billion in the same quarter last year. Nvidia stock has been on a tear over the last year, rising over 200% and closing at a record high on Tuesday. The stock has risen nearly 700% since the stock market lows in October 2022. Shares were off around 0.4% in early trade on Tuesday. The vast majority of Nvidia's revenue will come from its Data Center business, which is set to pull in $21 billion, up from $4.28 billion in Q1 last year. The company’s Gaming division, formerly its largest segment, is expected to see revenue of $3.5 billion, up from $2.24 billion in the same quarter last year. Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings announcement, Stifel analyst Ruben Roy raised his price target on the company’s share price to $1,085 from $910, saying that he anticipates Nvidia will once again beat expectations on the top and bottom lines and raise its guidance for the next quarter. Demand for its chips from hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and others has boosted the company's results, making Wednesday's report a key check on the industry's appetite for further AI investment. And as Yahoo Finance's Josh Schafer reported Tuesday, the AI trade has moved beyond the borders of tech, with investors looking to energy and power companies as derivative plays on the AI boom. But Roy, like analysts at BofA Global Research and Loop Capital, says there remain near-term concerns about how much the transition from Nvidia’s current Hopper line of AI chips to its Blackwell line will impact overall sales. The fear is that customers will put some of their orders for Hopper chips on hold while they wait for Nvidia to roll out its more powerful Blackwell products. On Tuesday, Amazon said it had transitioned an upcoming supercomputer project to Blackwell chips after a report from The Financial Times suggested the retail giant had paused some chip orders. Loop Capital’s Ananda Baruah argued it's possible Nvidia won't let companies put their Hopper orders on hold without losing their place in line to purchase Blackwell chips. If enough customers put their orders on hold in favor of Blackwell chips, Nvidia could see a temporary dip in quarter-over-quarter sales. Nvidia is also contending with the threat of its customers building their own in-house AI chips. So far Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are using — or are working toward — their own AI chips that provide better power efficiency than Nvidia’s offerings. That doesn’t mean those companies will completely abandon Nvidia’s chips, though the push to their own products could cut into the chip giant’s market share. AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are gaining steam when it comes to their own AI chips. On Tuesday, Microsoft announced during its Build conference that it would begin offering AMD’s MI300X chips for developers looking to train and deploy AI models. The Windows maker also made sure, however, to point out that it is using Nvidia’s chips as well." MY COMMENT NOTHING new here. We will just have to wait till the markets close today to see....REALITY.
