With the total focus of the markets and financial media on NVDA.....there is simply nothing else going on today. So that is about it for me for now. I have not checked my actual account....but I can see that at this moment I have.....NVDA, GOOGL, CMG, and HD,....down right now. The rest of my ten stocks are UP.
Your moms PM dividend reminded me of another stock that I owned and come to think about it may be the catalyst for starting to invest 'real money'. I bought into Altria (MO) back around 2014 at I believe somewhere in the low $40 range and I sold it somewhere very very close to the top probably within a dollar or two. I will have to go back and see how much I had invested in it but it was my first real WIN. It had an excellent dividend at the time and explosive growth. Looking at the chart I must have sold in 2017 (3 years of dividends) and that's when I went very heavy on AMD and NVDA.
My mom owned PM from 1964 all the way till 2014. It paid a great dividend. Later, she owned both PM and MO after the company split up to deal with the tobacco litigation. That single stock was a dividend gold mine. She always reinvested all dividends in additional shares.....but If she had needed it....her total account dividends would have been a very nice retirement income.
The markets today. Stocks are little changed as Wall Street awaits big Nvidia earnings https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/21/stock-market-today-live-updates.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "U.S. stocks traded near the flatline Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the widely-anticipated release of Nvidia’s latest earnings report. The S&P 500 was marginally higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped less than 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite added 0.1%. Target shares fell more than 8% on weaker-than-expected earnings, with management citing weaker spending trends in discretionary categories. The retailer’s troubles raised broader concerns about the health of the consumer. Nvidia shares pulled back 0.7% Wednesday ahead of its quarterly earnings results after the bell. Analysts are expecting another strong quarter from the chipmaker. LSEG data shows consensus estimates call for earnings per share and revenue to have risen 400% and 240% year on year. The chipmaker’s earnings announcement “has become one of the most important events on the macro calendar,” according to Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen. Although the market has been focused on AI as a key driver of the rally, optimism for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year suggests the market could bounce back even in the case Nvidia’s earnings disappoint, said Tim Courtney, Exencial Wealth Advisors chief investment officer. “I do think there is enough strength out there simply because of the market’s expectation for soft landing now. Allen noted that the day after Nvidia’s last earnings report in February, the S&P 500 jumped more than 2% the following day, notching its best daily results in over a year. Investors will closely watch the report for clues on whether this year’s tech rally can continue. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has jumped 12% to record highs year to date. Existing home sales unexpectedly fell in April, indicating a potential cooldown in the housing market. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected home sales to rise during the month. Traders will also watch out for minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are coming off of record setting sessions, while the Dow rose slightly. Retailers express near-term caution, but remain hopeful for the second half Coinciding with its first earnings miss in six quarters, Target gave conservative second quarter guidance. The big box retailer projects same-store sales of up 0%-2% vs. the Street’s expectation for 1.5% growth. Meanwhile, earnings guidance of $1.95-$2.35 has a midpoint of $2.15, which is below the $2.19 expected by analysts. However, the full-year forecast is reaffirmed – implying better performance in the back half of the year. While they feel the U.S. consumer remains largely “resilient” overall, Target executives told analysts on the call that “Currently one in three Americans has maxed out or is nearing the limit on at least one of their credit cards. For these reasons and more, we remain cautious in our near-term growth outlook. Notably we expect discretionary trends will continue to remain pressured in the short-term but to normalize over time.” TJX gives weak second quarter guidance – with earnings per share seen 88-90 cents, solidly below the 94 cent estimate. Same-store sales are projected to grow 2%-3%, a bit conservative compared to Wall Street’s expectation of up 3%. The company raises its full year earnings guidance – but that’s mostly because of the off-price retailer’s first quarter beat. But take into account the weak second quarter as well, the full year outlook implies there’s greater hope for the second half. And last night, Urban Outfitters executives told analysts to expect more markdowns this quarter – particularly at its more troubled namesake stores – to clear out inventory before the back-to-school season. Despite that, they remained optimistic that there will be “improved regular price sales and product margins in the back half of the current year.” Existing home sales unexpectedly fall Existing U.S. home sales for April fell 0.9% to 4.14 million — a sign the housing market may be cooling. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected an increase of 1.4% to 4.25 million from 4.19 million in March." MY COMMENT OK......waiting, waiting, waiting....till the close today. Just like the markets.
All about time frame. Short term trading is a zero sum game. Long term investing gives you a chance to reasonably share in value creation by a company. Day to day, trading is a zero sum -- someone has to lose $1 for someone else to make $1. And small fry investors aren't going to win a lot against professionals who are trying to extract that $1 for their livelihood. Decade to decade, the economy/market/companies create value and there is a lot to share and go around and a lot of it is new value -- no one *has* to lose $1 for you to make a $1, the company just has to create/deliver value to a customer.
Ha ha, yes, I own most of those. I'll go through because it reveals some of my investing philosophy. No PM for me. I don't want to make any money off tobacco since the product causes lung cancer. I know KO/PEP can make people fat and cause diabetes . . . but tobacco crosses a line for me. I won't invest in tobacco, alcohol, gambling, porn, private prisons or weapons manufacturers. I don't necessarily have a problems with those things existing . . . I just don't want to make money off them myself. There are too many good productive things I can make money off of instead. And yes, everyone draws different lines and that's fine. I own some drug companies and some people dislike big pharma. GE I owned for a fairly long time but sold more or less at its peak something like 15 or 20 years ago. I'll pat myself on the back for that one because I got out as I saw the mountains of debt and that it was becoming more of a financial company than an industrial manufacturer. That's a tale as old as time . . . conglomerates losing their way and branching outside of their purpose . . . and eventually being broken back out into parts. 3M I've been in and out over time and don't love it now but still have a small amount in some family accounts. COST I've never owned mostly because I don't invest in retailers. I have a list of industries I just won't invest in. Retailers are one because they come and go . . . 90% of the places I shopped at as a kid are gone. Retail is the ultimate capitalist battleground. Maybe this time is different with AMZN and WMT/TGT being the forever stalwarts, but I'm not betting on that. I also don't buy restaurants, airlines . . . and I think I've finally sworn off telecom (high capex, high debt, ever changing landscape where moats disappear quickly). Everything else you listed I own a good amount myself and/or in family accounts. If I had to be pigeon-holed I'm a dividend growth investor.
A perfect way to invest goldendad. Yeah you know my list of untouchables.....airlines, insurance companies, health care, auto makers, banks, financial companies, drug companies, oil companies,....and a few more. I HATE businesses that are constantly boom and bust. Like you....... I got out of GE at just the right time....when Welch left.
Today has turned into a mild rout for the stocks that I own. ALL of them.....except for COSTCO.....are in the red. Not a surprize with the FED minutes now being out and the big earnings tonight. Federal Reserve minutes indicate worries over lack of progress on inflation https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/fed-minutes-may-2024-.html "Key Points .......while inflation had eased over the past year, in recent months there had been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective,” ....... .......“various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate.” The meeting followed a number of economic reports that showed inflation was lingering more than officials had expected to start 2024." BUMMER......but....old news at this point.
Am I seeing this right.....a TEN FOR ONE stock split for NVDA? "We announced a ten-for-one forward stock split of our issued common stock to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. The split will be effected through an amendment to our Restated Certificate of Incorporation, which will result in a proportionate increase in the number of shares of authorized common stock. Each record holder of common stock as of the close of market on Thursday, June 6, 2024 will receive nine additional shares of common stock, to be distributed after the close of market on Friday, June 7, 2024. Trading is expected to commence on a split-adjusted basis at market open on Monday, June 10, 2024" YES it was posted on here before any of the major financial sites had this news.
So here is the CFO commentary on earnings: CFO Commentary on First Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results https://investor.nvidia.com/files/doc_financials/2025/Q1FY25-CFO-Commentary.pdf "Revenue was a record $26.0 billion, up 262% from a year ago and up 18% sequentially. Data Center revenue was a record, up 427% from a year ago and up 23% sequentially. Gaming revenue was up 18% from a year ago and down 8% sequentially. We also announced a 150% increase in our quarterly cash dividend from $0.04 per share to $0.10 per share of common stock. Outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 is as follows: • Revenue is expected to be $28.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. • GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins are expected to be 74.8% and 75.5%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. For the full year, gross margins are expected to be in the mid-70% range. • GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to be approximately $4.0 billion and $2.8 billion, respectively. Full-year operating expenses are expected to grow in the low-40% range. • GAAP and non-GAAP other income and expense are expected to be an income of approximately $300 million, excluding gains and losses from non-affiliated investments. • GAAP and non-GAAP tax rates are expected to be 17%, plus or minus 1%, excluding any discrete items." MY COMMENT The above is taken right off the NVDA website.......before....I saw anyone else reporting any of this info. For some reason the CFO Commentary went live before the earnings were posted on the site.
If you want to see extreme detail look at the above.....and....YES there is a TEN FOR ONE stock split. Nvidia reports a 262% jump in sales, signals continuing AI boom https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q1-2025-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia reported first fiscal-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat expectations for sales and earnings, and the stock rose slightly in extended trading. Nvidia will hold a conference call to discuss the results this afternoon, which can be listened to on Nvidia’s website at 5 p.m. ET Nvidia reported first fiscal-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat expectations for sales and earnings, and provided a strong forecast for the current quarter. The stock rose slightly in extended trading. Nvidia said it was splitting its stock 10 to 1. Earnings Per Share: $6.12 adjusted vs. $5.59 adjusted, per LSEG consensus estimates. Revenue: $26.04 billion vs. $24.65 billion expected by LSEG Nvidia said it expected sales of $28 billion in the current quarter. Wall Street was expecting earnings per share of $5.95 on sales of $26.61 billion, according to LSEG. Nvidia reported net income for the quarter of $14.81 billion, or $5.98 per share, compared with $2.04 billion, or 82 cents, in the year-ago period. In the past year, sales have skyrocketed as companies such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and OpenAI buy billions of dollars of Nvidia’s GPUs, which are advanced and pricey chips required for developing and deploying artificial intelligence applications. The company’s largest and most important business is its data center sales, which includes its AI chips as well as many of the additional parts needed to run big AI servers. Nvidia said its data center category rose 427% from the year-ago quarter to $19.4 billion in revenue." MY COMMENT NOW for what counts the guidance. BUT we know pretty much what that will be since it is in the CFO statement that I posted above BEFORE earnings came out. STOCKAHOLICS....via this thread.... scooped all the media sites for the stock split info and the results above.
HERE is another take. Nvidia stock pops 4% after earnings beat forecasts, announcing stock split and dividend hike https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...-stock-split-and-dividend-hike-202405254.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Nvidia (NVDA) reported first quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday that topped expectations while also announcing a 10-for-1 stock split and an increased dividend, following some of its Big Tech peers in doling out heftier quarterly payments to shareholders. The company saw adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter of $6.12 on revenue of $26 billion, a jump of 461% and 262%, respectively, from a year ago. Analysts were expecting Adj. EPS of $5.65 on revenue of $24.69 billion, according to data from Bloomberg. The company reported adjusted EPS of $1.09 on revenue of $7.19 billion in the same quarter last year. In the current quarter, Nvidia expects revenue of $28 billion plus or minus 2% in the coming quarter. That’s better analysts had expected. Nvidia stock rose as much as 4% in extended trading on Wednesday." MY COMMENT A HUGE BEAT on earnings expectations. AND....a BIG GIANT CHERRY ON TOP.....with the ten for one stock split. I was amazed to find that CFO commentary on earnings up on the NVDA site before the actual earnings were posted on the NVDA site.
AND....one last little article: Nvidia reports a 262% jump in sales, signals continuing AI boom https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q1-2025-.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia reported first fiscal-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat expectations for sales and earnings, and the stock rose slightly in extended trading. Nvidia will hold a conference call to discuss the results this afternoon, which can be listened to on Nvidia’s website at 5 p.m. ET Nvidia reported first fiscal-quarter earnings on Wednesday that beat expectations for sales and earnings, and provided a strong forecast for the current quarter. Nvidia said it was splitting its stock 10 to 1. Nvidia’s results have become a way for investors to gauge the strength of the AI boom that has transfixed markets in recent months. Its strong results on Wednesday suggest that demand for the AI chips Nvidia makes remains strong. The stock rose 2% in extended trading. Earnings Per Share: $6.12 adjusted vs. $5.59 adjusted, per LSEG consensus estimates. Revenue: $26.04 billion vs. $24.65 billion expected by LSEG Nvidia said it expected sales of $28 billion in the current quarter. Wall Street was expecting earnings per share of $5.95 on sales of $26.61 billion, according to LSEG. Nvidia reported net income for the quarter of $14.88 billion, or $5.98 per share, compared with $2.04 billion, or 82 cents, in the year-ago period. In the past year, Nvidia sales have skyrocketed as companies such as Google, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and OpenAI buy billions of dollars of Nvidia’s GPUs, which are advanced and pricey chips required for developing and deploying artificial intelligence applications. The company’s largest and most important business is its data center sales, which includes its AI chips as well as many of the additional parts needed to run big AI servers. Nvidia said its data center category rose 427% from the year-ago quarter to $22.6 billion in revenue. Nvidia CFO Colette Kress said in a statement that it was due to shipments of the company’s “Hopper” graphics processors, which include the company’s H100 GPU. “Large cloud providers continued to drive strong growth as they deploy and ramp NVIDIA AI infrastructure at scale, representing mid-40% of our Data Center revenue,” Kress said in the statement. Nvidia also highlighted strong sales of its networking parts, which are increasingly important as companies build clusters of tens of thousands of chips that need to be connected. Nvidia said that it had $3.2 billion in networking revenue, primarily its Infiniband products, which was over three times higher than last year’s sales. Nvidia, before it became the top supplier to big companies building AI, was known primarily as a company making hardware for 3D gaming. The company’s gaming revenue was up 18% during the quarter to $2.64 billion, which Nvidia attributed to strong demand. The company also sells chips for cars and chips for advanced graphics workstations, which remain much smaller than its data center business. The company reported $427 million in professional visualization sales, and $329 million in automotive sales. Nvidia said it bought back $7.7 billion worth of its shares and paid $98 million in dividends during the quarter. It also raised its dividend 150%, to one cent per share of the split stock" MY COMMENT BOOM......this company is the new MICROSOFT of the 2020's. I continue to say......this is the first company that I have seen that reminds me of being an early owner of MSFT from 1990 through 2002. NOW....lets see what all the...."professional critics"...have to say and if they can come up with some negative from these numbers or the guidance. I am sure they will try....as usual.
Just to keep everyone and everything under control. PMorgan warns S&P 500 could tumble 20% by the end of the year JPMorgan issues gloomy forecast for US stock market https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-sp-could-tumble-20-end-year MY COMMENT NOW....I assume they will be pulling all their money out as well as that of their clients.....right? I sure hope so. After all they do actually put their money where their mouth is....right? Here is the guts of their opinion: "The forecast from JPMorgan's chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic is one of the most pessimistic on Wall Street. He and his peers see the S&P 500 ending the year at 4,200 — the lowest year-end target among major Wall Street banks. From current levels, that implies a more than 21% drop. "With very high equity valuations, we do not see equities as attractive investments at the moment, and we don't see a reason to change our stance,""
AND.....another one bites the dust. DuPont to Split Into Three Companies as CEO Ed Breen Steps Back https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dupont-split-three-companies-ceo-204504838.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "(Bloomberg) -- DuPont de Nemours Inc. plans to break apart into three publicly traded companies, joining a list of industrial conglomerates seeking to boost returns by splitting into smaller, more focused businesses. The company will separate its electronics and water units through tax-free transactions, DuPont announced Wednesday in a statement. The remaining operations will be focused on industries such as biopharma and medical devices, with products including Tyvek and Kevlar. Chief Executive Officer Ed Breen, who returned to the role in 2020, will step down June 1, the company said. He will retain the role of executive chairman of the remaining company while Chief Financial Officer Lori Koch assumes the CEO post. The breakup continues DuPont’s lengthy history of dealmaking and portfolio reshaping. About a decade ago, the company agreed to merge with Dow Chemical and subsequently spun off some businesses. DuPont has also been exploring divestitures recently and last year agreed to sell a controlling stake in Delrin for $1.8 billion. DuPont shares have gained about 2% this year, giving the company a market value of about $33 billion. The announcement follows a parade of corporate icons that have broken up in recent years in bids to create value for shareholders such as Johnson & Johnson, United Technologies and Danaher Corp. General Electric Co. became the latest example in April, when it spun off its energy-related businesses following the early 2023 separation of its health-care equipment unit. Shares of GE, which is now principally a maker of jet engines, have soared roughly 58% this year through Wednesday’s close." MY COMMENT YET another ICONIC conglomerate goes the way of the DO-DO BIRD. No doubt under the guise of...."creating shareholder value". Which is corporate speak for...big bucks for the top management with all their stock options. These BIG CONGLOMERATES became the guts of the American economy by being massive stores of money and earnings power in the form of many business components working as one. The various segments all helped to make up for single business niche risk. Another one goes down the drain.....and....once Humpty Dumpty is broken up it can never be put back together. I HATE this trend.....it is just short term thinking gone wild. We do have one perfect example of a company doing the exact opposite.....AMAZON.
OK...one last one for me on NVDA. Than it is time to move on. As to the after hours gain....I dont count on that being the same when the markets are open. We will see tomorrow and more importantly....over the rest of the year. Nvidia shows no signs of AI slowdown after over 400% increase in data center business https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/nvi...over-400percent-jump-in-data-center-unit.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Nvidia’s revenue more than tripled in the fiscal first quarter and its data center business grew by more than 400% from a year earlier. Now Nvidia is trying to signal to investors that the companies buying billions of dollars of its chips will also be able to make money off artificial intelligence. Finance chief Colette Kress told investors on Wednesday that cloud providers were seeing an “immediate and strong return” on investment. Nvidia’s historic rally is being driven by its data center business, which grew at a whopping 427% in the latest quarter as companies keep snapping up its artificial intelligence processors. Now, Nvidia is signaling to investors that the customers spending billions of dollars on its chips will be able to make money off AI, too. It’s a concern that’s been swirling around the company because there’s only so much cash clients can burn on infrastructure before they need to see some profit. If Nvidia’s chips can provide a strong and sustainable return on investment, that suggests the AI boom may have room to run as it moves past the early stages of development, and as companies plan for longer-term projects. Nvidia’s most important clients for its graphics processing units are the big cloud providers — Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud and Oracle Cloud. They made up “mid-40%” of Nvidia’s $22.56 billion in data center sales in the April quarter, the company said. There’s also a newer crop of specialized GPU data center startups that buy Nvidia’s GPUs, install them in server racks, load them up in data centers, connect them to the internet, and then rent them out to customers by the hour. For example, CoreWeave, a GPU cloud, is currently quoting $4.25 per hour to rent an Nvidia H100. This kind of server time is essential in large quantities to train a large language model such as OpenAI’s GPT, and it’s how many AI developers end up accessing Nvidia hardware. Following Nvidia’s better-than-expected earnings report on Wednesday, finance chief Colette Kress told investors that cloud providers were seeing an “immediate and strong return” on investment. She said that if a cloud provider spends $1 on Nvidia hardware, it can rent it out for $5 over the next four years. Kress also said newer Nvidia hardware would have an even stronger return on investment, citing the company’s HDX H200 product, which combines 8 GPUs, providing access to Meta’s Llama AI model, instead of raw access to a cloud computer. “That means for every $1 spent on NVIDIA HDX H200 servers at current prices, an API provider serving Llama 3 tokens can generate $7 in revenue over four years,” Kress said. Part of the calculation includes how the chips are utilized, whether they are running 24 hours a day or less frequently. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told analysts on the earnings call that OpenAI, Google, Anthropic and as many as 20,000 generative AI startups are lining up for every GPU the cloud providers can put online. “All of the work that’s being done at all the [cloud service providers] are consuming every GPU that’s out there,” Huang said. “Customers are putting a lot of pressure on us to deliver the systems and stand it up as quickly as possible.” Huang said Meta has declared its intention to spend billions on 350,000 Nvidia chips, even though the company isn’t a cloud provider. Facebook parent Meta will likely have to monetize its investment through its advertising business or by including a chatbot inside its current apps. Meta’s cluster of servers is an example of “essential infrastructure for AI production,” Huang said, or, “what we refer to as AI factories.” Nvidia also surprised analysts by giving an aggressive timeline for its next-generation GPU, called Blackwell, which will be available in data centers in the fiscal fourth quarter. Those comments allayed fears of a slowdown as companies wait for the latest technology. The first customers for the new chips include Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, Oracle, Tesla, and Elon Musk’s xAI, Huang said. Nvidia shares jumped 6% in extended trading, surpassing $1,000 for the first time. In addition to announcing earnings, Nvidia announced a 10-for-1 stock split following a 25-fold surge in the company’s share price over the past five years." AND I also strongly recommend this little article.....an EXCLUSIVE interview today after earnings. Some good content here for owners of NVDA....from the CEO. Demand is just so strong': Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tells Yahoo Finance supply can't keep up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dema...oo-finance-supply-cant-keep-up-012653951.html MY COMMENT So....the guidance is just as BIG of a BEAT as the earnings. So now that this is over with the markets can get back to making us all some money over the rest of the year......unless JP Morgan is right. (see above article regarding JP Morgan)
Sometimes good, sometimes bad. I often feel the same way when my companies jettison moneymaking divisions because they aren't growing fast enough and they only want to keep the fast growers. I thought PG sold the Jif and Folgers brands to SJM too cheaply . . . so I ended up taking the other side and buying and holding SJM for a long time. I generally think companies should keep moneymaking divisions and just reallocate the profits to the higher margin, faster growth, more profitable ventures going forward rather than sell them at low multiples. But I guess if you really like a conglomerate breaking up . . . there's no reason you can't buy (hold) all three and just mentally merge them as one still. Obviously you lose some benefits of scale (like overhead expense sharing) and some synergies. Also there are times I couldn't quite decide which stock to buy in an industry so I bought some of each and mentally merge them into one company. For instance I own Chevron-Exxon Corporation. And Kinder Morgan Williams. I've owned ABT for a long time . . . the split-off of ABBV worked wonders for shareholder value. Maybe it would have done the same left together, who knows? But that's one that at least did work. I'm way more skeptical of the Kenvue (JNJ) spin-off because of the reason I mentioned above . . . it's making good money, why throw it overboard and lose it when you don't need to? Kind of like the K/KLG spinoff versus GIS where they (to date) are just keeping the cereal business inside the company. I guess we'll see what works out best. But I tend to get more upset with overpriced acquisitions . . . I will sell if the company pays too much and takes on too much debt. I tend to have stricter low debt standards than most people do. For instance . . . SJM essentially added on something like $3.5B in debt to buy Hostess . . . and it took their earnings estimate up $100MM/yr. A $100MM increase in earnings for the next couple years from new debt of $3.5B? Took them from a normally leveraged food company to a highly leveraged one. I sold mine and just kept some in some family accounts.
Hopefully a retirement where I do not have to worry about money. I could just focus on being old and senile.
