Something is telling me today is going to be a good day. The premarket is pretty promising but we will see how it holds up. My takeaway from NVDA ER is the party is just getting started and they are the life of it. The moat is getting deeper and wider but there is so much demand their is enough room in the sandbox for everyone to play, for now. So we should see a little bump in AMD as well. It appears the selling of AMD shares and transferring to NVDA on the last pullback was a good move. In hindsight I should of sold all of them but being less than 10% of my portfolio now it should be inconsequential. My thought on hanging on to them, besides being a good company with excellent leadership is their potential to come up with unique AI advancements that may give them some sort of market advantage. I kind of picture NVDA as a G6 and AMD as more of a Cessna... While the G6 is supperior in every way, there is still a large market for the more practical and affordable Cessna...
goldendad. SJM.....that is another company that "we"....my mom and I.....held for a long time. Like you, we got it as part of the PG spin off and held it for a long time after. You are definately an old school investor....in my style.
Tiresmoke....Imagine a world where the ARM deal had been allowed to happen. What a shame it was killed. I think I am thinking rationally.......so....I am putting on my analyst hat. I am going to give my price prediction for NVDA. I am calling for a price per share of $500.....post-split of course. Time span.....five to seven years. NVDA will become the number one market cap company in the world and number one holding in the SP500. Of course this assumes that: Huang remains the CEO for that entire time and continues to manage the company as he has up to now. We avoid disastrous policies, regulation, or challenge from GOVERNMENT over that time. I assume that there will be at least one recession during that time.
Looks like some of us are making some money today. Nasdaq, S&P 500 pop as Nvidia galvanizes stocks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stoc...op-as-nvidia-galvanizes-stocks-133030125.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched fresh intraday records on Thursday after Nvidia's (NVDA) blockbuster earnings lit a fire under optimism that the AI rally has more room to run. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) as much as 1%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI), which includes fewer tech stocks, dipped 0.3%. Nvidia shares popped more than 8% to top $1,000 for the first time after the AI bellwether blew past Wall Street's sky-high forecasts for first quarter earnings. The chip giant also raised its guidance, easing fears that AI demand might be losing steam. Other chipmakers and AI-related stocks rode higher on the coattails of the results, with server makers Dell (DELL) and Super Micro Computer (SCMI) up about 6% and 5%, respectively. The Nvidia euphoria helped the market set aside the interest rate hike concerns that fed the previous day's losses. Stocks had slipped after Federal Reserve minutes revealed some policymakers are open to keeping rates higher for longer this year if inflation doesn't cool as projected. Manufacturing and services PMI for May came in at 54.8 versus 51.3 last month. The flash reading, which came in higher than what economists had expected, showed business activity accelerated at the fastest pace in two years earlier this month, despite the Fed's efforts to quell price pressures. Elsewhere, AI hopes gave corporates a boost. Cloud-based analytics company Snowflake's (SNOW) shares added 4% on the heels of an upbeat sales outlook. Meanwhile, News Corp. (NWS) got a bump up after the media giant signed a deal with Microsoft-backed OpenAI that should give ChatGPT access to content from The Wall Street Journal and other titles. MY COMMENT I do NOT expect today to just be UP, UP, UP. I think it will still be an erratic day. There will be much buying and selling of NVDA. Many people will take profits. So keep your wits about you....dont get too crazy. Enjoy the short term fun.....but..remember....it is still all about the LONG TERM
The economic data that no one will care about today. US business activity quickens in May; price pressures building up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-business-activity-quickens-may-134955083.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business activity accelerated to the highest level in just over two years in May, but manufacturers reported a surge in prices for a range of inputs, suggesting that goods inflation could pick up in the months ahead. S&P Global said on Thursday that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, jumped to 54.4 this month. That was the highest level since April 2022 and followed a final reading of 51.3 in April. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index little changed at 51.1. The increase was driven by the services sector, with the flash PMI rising to 54.8 from 51.3 in April. The manufacturing flash PMI inched up to 50.9 from 50.0. At face value, the jump in activity suggested that economic growth picked up half-way through the second quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 1.6% annualized pace in the January-March quarter, largely held back by a surge in imports to meet strong domestic demand. So-called hard data for April, including retail sales, housing starts and permits as well as industrial production have suggested that the economy lost further momentum early in the second quarter. The labor market is also slowing. "Business confidence has lifted higher to signal brighter prospects for the year ahead," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. "However, companies remain cautious with respect to the economic outlook amid uncertainty over the future path of inflation and interest rates, and continue to cite worries over geopolitical instabilities and the presidential election." The S&P Global survey's measure of new orders received by private businesses increased to 51.7 this month from 49.1 in April. Its measure of employment contracted for a second straight month, though the pace of decline moderated. Businesses faced higher prices for inputs. The manufacturing input prices index vaulted to the highest level in one-and-a-half years amid reports of higher supplier prices for a wide variety of inputs, including metals, chemicals, plastics and timber-based products as well as energy and labor costs. That would suggest goods disinflation is close to running its course. Higher staffing costs also raised costs for services businesses. Companies sought to pass higher costs onto customers by increasing selling prices. "What's interesting is that the main inflationary impetus is now coming from manufacturing rather than services, meaning rates of inflation for costs and selling prices are now somewhat elevated by pre-pandemic standards in both sectors to suggest that the final mile down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target still seems elusive," said Williamson." MY COMMENT YEP....the economy is good and in general the business environment is also good. BUT....the guts of the economy....small business......is having a very difficult time right now. I see this manufacturing data as lagging reality for a short time. Consumer resistance to higher prices will work its way up the business chain. When a dip comes it will happen very quickly and seem like it came out of nowhere.
Personally, I see what is happening at Under Armor and Lululemon....as yet another sign of consumer exhaustion with high prices and an indication that we are now at or near the limit....before business has to hold the line and even start to cut prices for consumers. Under Armour downgraded, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/under-armour-downgraded-wynn-upgraded-133524321.html "Oppenheimer downgraded Under Armour (UAA) to Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm still looks optimistically towards the longer-term potential for Under Amour, but says positive change at the company will require time and investors should move to the sidelines pending clearer signals of improving fundamental momentum." MY COMMENT The consumer is speaking and saying....NO.....I am not going to pay that amount for that product. This is why COSTCO and WALMART are booming and gaining higher level consumers as customers. I see all of this as an early indication that the ability to just pass price increases on to consumers is ending. Companies that are blind to what is starting to happen will find out that they are suddenly losing big time market share. Even though the economy is good....the markets are good....there is an underlying discontent out there in the consumer world. Business Beware.
HERE is how the NVDA stock split will work. "shareholders of record as of June 6, 2024, will receive nine additional shares of stock for each share they own after the market close on Friday, June 7. The stock is expected to begin trading on a split-adjusted basis on June 10."
The wet blanket of the day......and....a big part of the DROP in the DOW is.....you guessed it....JP Morgan. PMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says can’t rule out ‘hard landing’ for the U.S., stagflation will be ‘worst outcome’ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/23/jpm...ard-landing-stagflation-is-worst-outcome.html
Boils down to elastic v inelastic demand. You can push the prices/margins on some things because people will buy no matter what . . . gasoline and groceries come to mind (yeah, they will bargain hunt, but they will buy something). But there will be more pushback on wants not needs. I've always felt more comfortable investing in needs not wants . . . stuff like cruise lines, recreational motorcyles/ATVs, RVs, etc is all discretionary spending and people can dial that back real fast. Food, healthcare, energy . . . doesn't get dialed back so much.
I see this behavior as the best indicator for the economy. It will be a battle for battered consumers. Why Target and McDonald’s are cutting prices and offering deals https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/22/target-walmart-mcdonalds-price-cuts-deals.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Key Points Target’s weak quarterly results show the fierce battle between retailers trying to outmatch each other on low prices. The big-box retailer announced this week that it’s cutting prices on thousands of items. Aldi and Walmart have also stepped up efforts to attract a bargain-hunting shopper. Target’s weak quarterly earnings underscored why it cut prices on thousands of household staples: It’s struggling to win over bargain hunters. The discounter is not alone. Target’s first-quarter results on Wednesday not only show American consumers are more selective about spending in the face of sustained inflation that has squeezed their budgets for nearly three years.The company’s declining sales also illustrate how the battle for shoppers’ wallets has heated up as retailers — and even some restaurants — race to outmatch each other on low prices. Walmart said last week that its grocery “rollbacks,” short-term deals on specific items, were up 45% year over year in April. The discounter also introduced a new premium grocery brand with most items under $5. Elsewhere, Aldi dropped prices earlier this month on more than 250 items, including chicken, steak, granola bars and frozen blueberries. And even McDonald’s is debuting a limited-time $5 value meal in late June as some diners scoff at the price of fast food. Target made its move on Monday, saying it has already reduced prices on about 1,500 items and plans to cut prices on thousands more this summer. Many of those items are staples such as milk, peanut butter and diapers. Multiple major grocers and restaurants cutting prices or offering deals could offer relief at the checkout, at a time when consumer prices are still climbing more than 3% from last year. It could also give the Federal Reserve more confidence to cut interest rates.Even so, the revenue lost from lower prices could force businesses to cut back elsewhere — potentially on labor costs. Analysts on Target’s earnings call on Wednesday asked about the timing and reasoning behind the price cuts and whether the retailer or its vendors are picking up the tab. The company declined to share details of that split, but Chief Growth Officer Christina Hennington said Target’s vendors know the company is committed to passing on savings to its customers to drive traffic. Some businesses have held on to customers even with the same or higher prices: Chipotle and Sweetgreen, for example, have bucked the consumer slowdown. Target vs. Walmart Target’s earnings report revealed at least part of the reason why it is joining the race to cut prices. Sales of discretionary merchandise, such as clothing, dropped year over year. But so did sales of higher frequency items like groceries and paper towels. Some customers may be making those purchases at Walmart instead. Transactions on Walmart’s website and stores rose 3.8% in the most recent quarter, and its e-commerce purchases shot up by 22% in the U.S., the company reported last week. In an interview with CNBC, Walmart finance chief John David Rainey said the retail giant is gaining share from higher-income households. He added some consumers are coming to its stores for meals because of sticker shock at fast-food chains. “We’ve got customers that are coming to us more frequently than they have before and newer customers that we haven’t traditionally had,” he said. On Target’s earnings call, analysts asked tough questions about whether the retailer is losing ground with shoppers or is seen as too pricey, outside of sales events. CEO Brian Cornell said Target is putting value front and center as it fights to get back to growth. “We want to make sure America knows that Target’s a great place to shop and we have great value every time you engage whether it’s in-store or through our digital channels,” he said, adding the company is on track to reverse sales declines in the second quarter. When Target cuts prices, customers have noticed and responded, Hennington said on the earnings call. For example, it noticed it didn’t have low-priced tech accessories that customers wanted, such as charging cables and phone cases, she said. Those items became part of Dealworthy, a new private brand launched in February that offers Target’s lowest prices on basic items like laundry detergent and paper plates. “When we introduced the right price points in Dealworthy, the guests noticed immediately and that drove unit and traffic acceleration in those categories and that’s what we’re doing business by business,” she said. It’ll soon run a similar play with seasonal items, she said. After Target “took a hard look at some of the most popular products from last year’s summer assortment,” customers can expect to see cheaper pool noodles, floats and coolers." MY COMMENT This and other examples in this thread are an early indicator of consumer exhaustion. The signs are out there with business price cuts and concern for market share. As often happens....when the consumer collapses....it will seem like a sudden, out of nowhere happening. But the warning signs are all around us. I hope the FED avoids the insanity of doing another rate hike. Wait and see is the best approach right now and over the next six months.
This is the BOEING headline today: FAA reveals flaw in another major Boeing plane that could result in fuel tank exploding https://nypost.com/2024/05/22/us-ne...l-tanks-could-explode-due-to-electrical-flaw/ Every day it is something. I would.....NOT, NOT, NOT.....buy this company. It is a knife falling from 50,000 feet. It is actually a HUGE MIRACLE that the stock has not totally collapsed. It is ....ONLY....down by 48% over the past five years.
WELL.....the DOW and the SP500 are now RED. AND....the NASDAQ gains have significantly moderated. This is exactly how markets work....short term. The early day market euphoria and mania is now over. NOW....the day starts.
Even though it is a good day in my account...it is also a very mixed day. HD, GOOGL, AAPL, PLTR, CMG....are all in the RED at this early time in the day. Time to sit, wait and watch. Remember: COURAGE.....ENDURE....PATIENCE. And yes....I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.
Yes, banks are on my no-go list as well. Auto companies aren't banned per se but I've never found one I wanted to invest in . . . high debt industry. I can understand oil/gas as too cyclical. It's not a big positioning for me, just some exposure. I like companies paying me more than I am paying them. Would like to hear your rationale for no insurance companies. I assume it's vanishing equity in a market correction/crash? Or is it too cyclical with rate cycles? I ask because I do own a good amount of insurers. I do dislike most financial companies. As for healthcare I like the devices/consumer products the most but ABT & JNJ came with pharma . . . so be it. I also ended up with AMGN after years of staring at its ValueLine summary and its impressive results . . . it seduced me. But I'm not a fan of the pharma patent cycle. But if it does well enough . . . for instance I bought ABT in 2009 for $43-ish, ABBV was spun out in 2013 (I think) with an assigned basis of $22 . . . and since the spin-off ABBV has paid >$40 in divs . . . so I guess I can quit "worrying" about the patent cycle when it has already paid me back and continues to pay nice divs. That's a big part of my strategy of staying long term . . . getting div cash in my pocket that reduces my effective basis to zero so I'm playing with house money at that point. Obviously that's really LONG TERM investing. I tend not to reinvest divs in the stocks that pay them . . . I tend to gather them and put them into something new . . . that is my diversification. I am way more concerned about existential risks (or in plain English, avoiding 0% returns) than I am about exactly what my CAGR is. If I reinvest divs in Company A and it goes belly up decades later . . . I never got anything out of it and it went to zero. If I take the divs from Company A and put it in Company B then the odds of me ever taking a zero are a lot less. But I guess that's all theoretical anyway as I let my winners run and cut my losers loose (more or less). I think the worst loss (longest I've ever let a loser run) was EK at about a 70% loss before I wised up. Which was bad . . . but even then there's a big difference between have 30% of your money left and having 0%. Also reminds me of the old joke . . . Q: How do you make a million dollars farming? A: Start with two million. Point here being a million is a heck of a lot more than zero . . . so more than anything I don't want to multiply by zero.
YOU are a good model for more conservative long term investors goldendadd. I also have owned AMGN in the past and of course JNJ. I liked JNJ for their consumer product mix. The few times I tried investing in Insurance companies they were just too cyclical for me. I did not do as well as i wanted and they went on my no buy list. As I have said many times....my bread and butter...over the past 50+ years has been the BIG CAP CONSUMER companies. Some time if you wish.....post a list of your stocks and funds.
Fair enough . . . I find one of the more important things to do in investing (and life) is streamline choices. So for instance, I live back a long drive and need 4WD/AWD for winter. So when I search for a new car I can limit my universe of consideration to the 10-20% of cars that have that. Saves a lot of time in a crowded marketplace not needing to look at everything. Simplified the process. Don't waste time looking at something that won't end up working for me. Investing is the same. I can't look at everything . . . or necessarily understand everything . . . so anything that winnows down the selection pool helps make it more manageable for me. I stick with US companies (enough foreign exposure there anyway), I limit industries (as mentioned above), I occasionally blacklist certain companies (if I ever think about buying T I get up and walk around until the feeling goes away), I have certain valuation criteria that *must* be met and 99% of the time I require a dividend (and a growing one at that). Things like that really shrink what I need to analyze.
So much for all the commentary in the media this week about NVDA pulling the markets up with their earnings report. The DOW is in the toilet....DUH....since NVDA is not part of the DOW. Even the SP500 and NASDAQ are in the RED in spite of NVDA today. Bottom line....if you want gains from NVDA....you need to own the stock. I dont know what happened at 1:30 Eastern time....but since than even NVDA has dropped.....although it is still up by 9.39%.
Here I sit with about 50 minutes to go.....and....I have a single stock in the green.....NVDA. All my others are RED. What a strange day today. The only way it could get any stranger is if NVDA turns red by the close. Sorry I should not have said that......
I am tired of talking about NVDA....but...there is some very good content in this article regarding the stock and their future earnings power from vehicles. Nvidia CEO says Tesla 'far ahead' in self-driving tech as autonomous driving efforts boost chip demand Nvidia also sees automotive being the largest enterprise vertical in its cash cow data center business. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvid...ving-efforts-boost-chip-demand-181126677.html
