YEP Tiresmoke. It is always amazing how those...."neutral events"...like a stock split tend to have that wondrous impact.
NOW...as to today. It was a KILLER day all the way around for me. I had a single stock in the red today....SMCI. NVDA had a HUGE day gaining $74.32 and going up by +6.98%. Thank you NVIDIA. I also got in a HUMONGOUS (investing term of art) beat on the old SP500 today by........BAM.....3.12%. They......DID....show me the money today.
I finally saw what my SP500 prediction was back at the start of the year. It was for the SP500 to hit 5800 by year end, 2024. In making that call I was WAY ABOVE all the professionals. BUT....now....the SP500 is at 5306. So with seven months left in the year it needs to gain another 9.3% for my target. Eminently doable......but still a long time and a long way to go to get there.
Looks like the treasury traders and speculators are at it today. A big jump in the Ten Year yield to 4.592%. this is an obvious trader driven jump to go up this much in a single day......especially a day when nothing is happening to justify this. The markets dont like it so all the big averages are in the red to start the day. Lets see if they can shake this off as the day progresses. Days like this....driven by the ten year yield....are actually irrelevant to the long term. So....I have no concerns at all with the start to the day today. The BULL MARKET is alive and well and powering the markets higher.
The story line today....I am not sure this is really how people think. It strikes me as more how the media....thinks people think. One thing is sure.....those of us that are investors.....are having a good year so far this year. So that is a factor in consumer confidence. Although I do "feel"....that every-day people's thinking about prices and inflation right now is at PEAK CONCERN and ANGER. US consumers show the Fed its backward problem with high rates: Morning Brief https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-c...-with-high-rates-morning-brief-100047960.html (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "US consumers felt more confident in May, data from the Conference Board showed on Tuesday. The main driver of this reading helps explain why other surveys show Americans feel dour about their economic prospects. And it reveals the backward problem facing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. Which is that high rates are helping the wealthiest Americans who are powering the economy's surprising growth and making it hard for the Fed to enact the rate cuts it wants. The simplified theory behind raising and lowering interest rates is straightforward — lower rates help the economy grow faster, and higher rates slow the economy down. The last 18 months of US economic experience, however, make the second premise harder to accept right now. "In terms of income, those making over $100K expressed the largest rise in confidence," Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a release. "On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers." Financial commentator Josh Brown has suggested that high rates could prolong the current bout of inflation, given the benefits that higher rates confer on the wealthiest Americans. Wealthy households right now can earn upwards of 4.5% in a high-yield savings account, see their equity portfolios go up 20% in a year, and are watching the value of their real estate holdings rip higher. These folks want nothing more than for rates to stay high. Robust spending from wealthy consumers has also kept services inflation elevated, which is keeping overall inflation above the Fed's 2% target. All of which tracks with the idea JPMorgan's Jack Manley set forward last month that high rates may be the source of persistent inflation and that the Fed might have a better shot at squashing price pressures by cutting rates rather than keeping them high. Given the amount of wealth concentrated among a handful of US households and the skew on the income distribution in the US, just about any change in monetary policy will be regressive, advantaging those with more at the expense of those with less. But after pushing back against the view that low rates were "hurting savers," the Fed is now faced with a predicament in which high rates offer outsized advantages to savers at the expense of those without. And the fact that Fed policy may be accomplishing the exact opposite of what it intends explains why a recent Guardian-Harris poll covered by Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman showed 56% of respondents said the US economy is currently in recession, even as economic data clearly shows the opposite. That poll also showed nearly half of respondents — 49% — think the S&P 500 is down this year. The index is actually up over 11% this year and rose 23% last year. Moreover, Tuesday's consumer confidence reading — while registering a three-month high — was far from a clear-cut judgment from Americans that things are looking up, economically speaking. "The rise in confidence was likely fueled by easing gas prices and rising equity prices last month, but the underlying details of the survey reveal that consumer confidence may be easily [shaken] moving forward," wrote Grace Zwemmer, associate US economist at Oxford Economics, in a note on Tuesday. "The perceived likelihood of a recession rose in May, worry over current and future financial situations worsened, and purchasing plans for homes remained at their lowest level since August 2012, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates." As Rick noted, one of Biden's biggest problems in seeking reelection is "convincing Americans that the economy is working for them without talking down or sounding dismissive." Pulling this off under normal circumstances is a tall order for any politician. But when the expected outcome of a foundational part of the nation's economic policy has been turned on its head, the task may be out of reach. MY COMMENT I dont buy much of the above. It is simply NOT how people think. The big problem with the consumer survey is....garbage in garbage out. I dont believe the broad interpretations of the survey are accurate. What I do believe is accurate is the below: "...poll also showed nearly half of respondents — 49% — think the S&P 500 is down this year. The index is actually up over 11% this year and rose 23% last year." "The rise in confidence was likely fueled by easing gas prices and rising equity prices last month, but the underlying details of the survey reveal that consumer confidence may be easily [shaken] moving forward,"" "The perceived likelihood of a recession rose in May, worry over current and future financial situations worsened, and purchasing plans for homes remained at their lowest level since August 2012, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates."" In addition this sort of....."survey"...often changes on a dime month to month...and is basically worthless data that is highly inaccurate. Nothing more than what it is.....a snapshot "survey" that reflects basically NOTHING about the economy. In addition the thinking reflected above is simply opinion that is highly speculative. So....as an investor....WHO CARES.
Good news for those of us that are BIG CAP mature GROWTH company investors in the market leaders. Hedge funds have never been more long the Magnificent 7 stocks, exceeding last summer’s peak exposure https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/29/hedge-funds-keep-betting-on-magnificent-7-stocks.html
Nothing to do today other than sit and wait for the early morning BS to dissipate and wait for the markets to turn green. That is what I expect to happen today.
I suspect that I am now in the green today. Since NVDA, AAPL, and AMZN are now positive. NVDA has turned positive at the moment being up by $7 per share. YES....my "feeling" today is that the NASDAQ and perhaps even the SP500 will turn green by the close. BUT....long term does today....a single day in the life of a BULL MARKET.... really matter....NOPE.
The CHIPOTLE....media hit job....is out in force today. The stock is down and the news coverage is totally on "portion size" and negative to the company. I googled "Chipotle news".....and every single article today is negative coverage talking about anecdotal reports dealing with portion size. This sort of massively uniform news coverage is not normal and I see it as a simple HIT JOB. To me....looks like typical short seller or some other sort of speculative trader manipulative BS. Of course....with this being the total financial media content today and reflected in all the article headlines.....the AI NEWS TRADING PLATFORMS....are eating it up. The majority of the articles are weird little news sites and sources....although some of the larger sites have picked this up for clicks and sensationalism. OK....whatever.
Ok....still moving forward today....now my green stocks has expanded to....AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, and NVDA.
Business price cuts continue to escalate. This is a significant story-line that is going to be the big trend over the next six months. Walmart, Target, Amazon, Aldi cut prices. Is this good news? Inflation rose 3.4% in April from a year earlier, still well above the Federal Reserve's target https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/walmart-target-amazon-aldi-cut-prices-good-news
I did my part to support the markets today....I BOUGHT something. PLTR...two shares.....yes TWO shares. I had an extra $46 in cash in my account.....so I added a couple of shares of PLTR. I am now up to 117 shares.....WOW. I will continue to use this little position as my go-to place any time I have a tiny bit of extra cash in my account. Shares are only.....$20.78.....right now...and tend to bounce around between about $20 on the low end and about $24 on the high end lately.
Ok....making some progress today. I just looked for the first time and I am MILDLY in the green today. Stocks that are driving that result....NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, AND GOOGL. Keep working at it markets. Tomorrow after the bell I will get my COSTCO earnings. I dont really have any concerns with earnings for this company. What I REALLY want to see is a stock split.....and....a membership fee increase. Those two events will really pump up the stock.
I made a small gain today on the backs of only two stocks.....NVDA and AAPL. But....green is green. I also beat the SP500 today by 0.82%. I will take it on a negative day. I am now GREEN for the first two days this week. Looking forward to Costco earnings tomorrow and hopefully a good couple of days to end the week.
In spite of what you see constantly in the daily media.....the stock markets are NOT the economy and the economy is NOT the stock markets. Digging Into the Disposition-Data Disconnect Dour moods against a generally healthy economic backdrop isn’t a uniquely 2024 phenomenon. https://www.fisherinvestments.com/e...y/digging-into-the-dispositiondata-disconnect (BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content) "Pop quiz: Are US stocks up or down for the year? Regular MarketMinder readers (and likely quite a few other folks) know US and global markets are up nicely five months into 2024. But according to a recent Guardian survey, one in two Americans think stocks are down this year. Moreover, nearly three in five people believe the US economy is presently in recession. Clearly, this suggests there is a sizable disconnect between sentiment and reality, feeding a lot of similar articles pondering why. Many posit this is highly unusual. But dour moods that don’t reflect reality aren’t unique—this time isn’t different. According to a Harris poll conducted May 10 – 12 for The Guardian, Americans hold some major misperceptions about the US economy. Notably, 55% think the economy is contracting and 56% believe the US is in recession, even though US GDP has grown on an annualized basis the past seven quarters. Moreover, 49% said the S&P 500 is down year to date (it is up double-digits) while nearly half of those polled reckon the unemployment rate is at a 50-year high (it is near a 50-year low). Now, we don’t have the survey’s actual questions, so perhaps poor syntax or unclear phrasing confused some respondents.[ii] But in general, the survey’s findings aren’t far removed from reporting and common narratives elsewhere. Some experts call today’s environment a “vibecession,” a revoltingly “hip” way to say the economy is fine per data, but people still feel it is doing badly. Some argue this will weigh on Americans’ spending or investment decisions. People saying they feel down is one thing. Understanding why is more difficult, though the news industry plays a big role in fostering a glum environment, in our view. Its incentive is (and always has been) to get attention and entertain its target audience—and the most effective way to do that is by appealing to emotion. As the late Nobel-prize winning economist and psychologist Daniel Kahneman and his colleague Amos Tversky proved, humans experience negative feelings more strongly than positive. In practice, that means a reader is more likely to click on a story about a possible, easy-to-comprehend negative event than one reporting a mundane, complex reality. After two years of nonstop talk of a looming US recession, headlines continue to bombard readers with reasons to worry: hiring slowdowns and layoffs, still-elevated prices, tariffs, dwindling household savings, the sting of still-high prices (even if the rate of rising prices has cooled markedly) and more. No wonder people think the broader economy is in dire straits, even if their personal financial situation isn’t as constrained. Then there is politics. This is, after all, an election year, and many view the economy through a political lens, despite the fact Washington has far less influence over growth in our private-sector-dominated economy than many think. Loads of sentiment surveys suggest respondents’ economic or market views are colored by whether the party they favor is in or out of power—a very dangerous bias for investors, in our view. All this likely underlies the seeming disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic activity. Someone may think the majority of the country is struggling financially because of dour polls and anecdotes about struggling households and businesses. But that overlooks how a record number of 401(k) savers have a balance of over $1 million; the influx of airline travelers taking to the skies this past Memorial Day weekend; and that US businesses continue to add more jobs than subtract.[iii] While prices haven’t fallen, wage growth has outstripped the pace of rising prices for a year, whether you use the overall average of private-sector workers or the Atlanta Fed’s gauge that tracks the same people over time.[iv] A retired couple may worry about the Fed, war overseas and local businesses closing down—but that doesn’t seem to stop them from treating their grandkids to a summertime Disneyland trip. Folks’ fretting the economy’s present and future while feeling ok about their own situation isn’t unique to 2024. Back in the 1980s, Japan was supposedly on its way to overtaking the US economy, leaving only “McJobs”—a grim future of low-paying, mundane work. That term was coined early in a boom that ran from 1982 through 1990’s shallow recession. Many view the subsequent 1990s expansion with rose-colored glasses today, but that joyous hue didn’t come until very late. When employment didn’t rebound strongly when growth returned, many bemoaned a so-called “jobless recovery.”[v] Halfway into the expansion, commentators fretted a bifurcated American economy: Yes, the economic data were bustling, but most workers weren’t reaping the gains (as evidenced by stagnant pay).[vi] In the 2000s, China’s soaring economy seemingly meant US primacy was over, and experts blamed America’s plodding prospects on factors likeincome inequality, which manifested in the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. A lack of jobs early in the recovery again spurred “jobless growth” gripes. And worries about the proliferation of part-time work echoed McJobs concerns from a generation earlier and stagnant wage growth worries in the 1990s. Yet that frustration didn’t prevent the 2010s US economic expansion and history’s longest bull market. The past isn’t a perfect analogue to the present, nor does it reveal the future. But this not-too-distant history is worth keeping in mind, especially since time softens memories. The 1980s were great times for the US economy, to be sure. But it wasn’t a perfect golden age, and people had their concerns about the state of things then—just as they do now. Ditto for the 1990s. And the 2000s. And so on. So, yes, of course today isn’t perfect. But stocks have never needed perfection or persistently positive vibes (sorry) to rise. And whatever the vibe of the hour is, you have to remember that how folks report feeling may not at all reflect what they actually do—or what it means for America’s economy." MY COMMENT I have seen this many times over the past 50 years. It pays to live in the world of REALITY......as a clinical investor.
Today is all about the Ten Year Yield.....which is pushing toward 5%. Of course this is a 2-3 day event. I see no reason for this to be happening other than trader.....legal...manipulation. It will pass within a few weeks at most......if people dont freak out. I am sure the FED loves it.......investors....not so much.....since the markets are obsessively focused on the Ten Year rate.
Of course.......you an not trust any of this data. It is not meaningful to investors anyway. US economic growth revised lower for first quarter; jobless claims edge up https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economic-growth-revised-lower-124947872.html
I expect the markets today to be about the same as yesterday. All focused on general interest rates. In reality the only thing that should matter to an actual investor is the fundamental results of the specific companies that you invest in. The impact or lack of impact from rates is different for EVERY company. SO....ignore this short term rate BS. AND...yes the ten year rate is STILL near historic lows.
The big reason for the big DOW dip today. Salesforce Drops on First-Ever Single Digit Sales Growth Outlook https://finance.yahoo.com/news/salesforce-gives-weak-sales-outlook-201103268.html MY COMMENT LOL.....I just heard the people on VARNEY talking and complaining about the AI TRADING PROGRAMS trading on the news headlines and key words. Reminded me of......myself on here. BUT....it is true.
