The Long Term Investor

I like this little article.

GDP Still Did Fine
The downward Q1 revision doesn’t change what matters.

https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/gdp-still-did-fine

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The second estimate of Q1 US GDP hit this morning—and, unusually for revisions, it stole headlines. The sharper-than-estimated headline slowdown caused some gloom, as did the markdown in consumer spending that largely drove it. Coverage called it “harder to dismiss” than the preliminary report. But a quick data dive shows this take misses the mark. Stocks’ economic driver didn’t deteriorate in any meaningful way.

When the advance estimate hit last month, the headline slowdown from Q4’s 3.4% annualized growth to 1.6% caught eyeballs.[ii] But the big drag from inventories (always open to interpretation) and surging imports (which detract from GDP but represent domestic demand) kept the gloom tempered. With these erratic components playing a big role and consumer spending initially reported at 2.5% growth, many observers decided things looked fine.[iii]

Now? Not so much. Consumer spending’s downward revision to 2.0% led headlines to claim domestic demand is slowing significantly.[iv] So did the first estimate of gross domestic income (GDI), released in tandem with Thursday’s GDP revision. It slowed from Q4’s downwardly revised 3.6% annualized to 1.5%.[v] Cue all the “soft landing” chatter.

We think it is all overstated. Exhibit 1 shows a detailed look at the first and second estimates of Q1 GDP and its major components. As you will see, while consumer spending got the downward treatment, business investment and residential real estate got a lift. So did exports. And those erratic detractors? They detracted in an even bigger way, with imports growing more than initially reported and inventories subtracting more.

Most importantly, though, the core private sector demand components—consumer spending, business investment and real estate—didn’t change much from the initial estimate, which pegged their combined growth at 2.6% annualized. The revised figure? 2.4%, in line with the longer-running trend.

Exhibit 1: A Close Look at Revised GDP


Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), as of 5/30/2024. *Inventories are in percentage-point contributions to the headline growth rate, the only way the BEA publishes the figure. All other figures are annualized growth rates.

Interestingly, real estate’s eye-popping growth rate—and two percentage-point upward revision—wasn’t enough to prevent a private sector demand slowdown. This speaks to an important point we have long made: Residential real estate is too small a GDP component to swing things much. Even at a revised 15.4% annualized growth rate, it contributed just 0.57 percentage point to headline growth.[vi] Business investment, which grew 3.3%, contributed almost as much.[vii]

The balance of business investment also shifted. Investment in structures flipped from a -0.1% annualized decline in the first estimate to 0.4% growth.[viii] Intellectual property products, which includes software and research and development, improved from 5.4% annualized to 7.9%.[ix] But long-suffering equipment investment got slashed from 2.1% growth to just 0.3%.[x] While disappointing, it also hints at businesses’ shift from two years of cutbacks to an offensive posture having yet to really show in the data. That should change as more capital gets to work. You can also see this in the bigger-than-estimated fall in inventories, which implies greater tailwinds from restocking ahead.

Don’t get us wrong: These data are all backward-looking. They reflect what happened in January, February and March. Stocks have long since lived that, priced it and moved on. But a downward GDP revision that tugs on sentiment helps expectations stay mild. You can see that in all Thursday’s “soft landing” talk. But a growing economy isn’t landing. Slowing growth doesn’t imply more slowdowns ahead. Hence, the stage looks set for even modest improvement to be a big positive surprise."

MY COMMENT

I dont invest based on economic data. The economy is NOT the stock markets.

At the moment we have a dual economy going on. On one hand people are suffering from inflation.....on the other hand....consumer spending....especially by the upper middle class up....is booming. Small business is being hammered and many big businesses are thriving.

In the end the economy is irrelevant to most investors. If it was me.....and it is....I would focus on the very specific businesses that I happen to own....NOT....the general economy.

 

I am starting the day with six stocks green and four in the red. BUT.....good old NVDA is strongly in the green today with a gain of $35......or......+3.2%.

I am leaving to do some running around now....so the markets can just take care of themselves. I trust my account to do what it needs to do for me. Especially for the LONG TERM.

 

A perfect example of the power of social media. CMG is still suffering greatly from the "small portion" social media viral posts.

The company needs to figure out how to address this before it becomes an even bigger....longer term... issue.

 

OK...OUT OF HERE.....LETS MAKE SOME MONEY TODAY.

 

It is all about the economy...stupid. BUT WAIT.....I thought that a worsening economy was a good thing for rate cuts and that the markets LOVE rate cuts?

Dow falls 300 points to kick off June trading on concerns about the economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Monday after weak U.S. manufacturing data raised concerns about the strength of the economy. Banks, industrials and other shares dependent on economic growth led the pullback.

The 30-stock Dow slipped 305 points, or about 0.7% with Caterpillar and Goldman Sachs among the biggest losers. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.06%

Cyclical stocks whose fortunes are closely tied to economic growth such as energy, industrial and materials companies led the decline. Earlier, the U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing, with the ISM manufacturing index measuring 48.7 in May, sending Treasury yields and the dollar lower. A reading below 50 is an indication of a contraction.

Wall Street is coming off a strong month, with all three major averages notching their sixth positive month in seven. The Nasdaq rose 6.9% in May, its best month since November 2023.

However, the rally seemed to lose steam near the end of the month. The three averages all closed May more than 1% below their record highs, even with the Dowadding more than 500 points on Friday. The Nasdaq fell 1.1% last week as chip stocks, including Nvidia, stumbled.

Nvidia rose nearly 4% after announcing a new suite of artificial intelligence chips, a sign it is prepared to fight to stay ahead in the highly competitive space. The chipmaker said it will upgrade its AI chip architecture on an annual basis.

“With technicals still stretched, [a] little fear baked in, and sentiment looking optimistic, we’re sticking with our call for volatility to pick up over the summer,” Wolfe Research chief investment strategist Chris Senyek wrote Monday.

The first week of June is brimming with further economic updates. Investors await private payroll data on Thursday from ADP followed by the May jobs report on Friday. Investors appear to want some economic slowing that would give the Federal Reserve the greenlight to cut interest rates, but not too much of a slowdown that would raise fears of a recession.

A technical issue at the New York Stock Exchange affected price quotes for several stocks earlier Monday, but trading returned to normal around midday."

MY COMMENT

WAIT......the economy is slowing....that is BAD for stocks. WHOOPS......the economy is too hot....that is BAD for stocks. Seems like the media has decided that there is NEVER anything that is good for stocks.

Welcome to the INSANE ASYLUM.

 

If I can survive the last hour and twenty minutes....I have a very good gain going today. Thank you NVDA, AAPL, AMZN, and COST.

Poor CMG is currently being choked by Social Media and a campaign to complain about portion size. I dont know how they will be able to fight a viral Social Media attack....other than.....simply wait it out and let the posters move on. It is also being egged on by the financial media reporting on the viral campaign EVERY DAY.

I dont think CMG has seen the last of this yet and the stock will probably continue to take some hits as a result.

 

What is really CRAZY....with everything bad, bad, bad, for the markets.....and...negative, negative, negative....I keep hitting new all time highs in my account. WTF.

The POWER of being a long term investor in a short term world.

 

Looks good to me....since I have owned FIVE of the SIX for a long time now.

The stock market took a narrow road to record highs last month

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-...oad-to-record-highs-last-month-152132239.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The broadening of the stock market rally fell by the wayside as the index reached record levels last month.

Just six large tech stocks contributed to more than 75% of the S&P 500's gain in May, a move reminiscent of how the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks drove the market rally in 2023.

Rises in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA) helped the S&P 500 (^GSPC) to its best May since 2003.

"We're seeing a relatively narrow market, and that narrowness has been increasing recently and really driven by fewer stocks," BMO Wealth Management US chief investment officer Yung-Yu Ma told Yahoo Finance. "That's not what you want to see for market health."

Participation from the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 had been a feature of runs toward record highs in the last six months, including late 2023 and near the end of the first quarter. In May, the S&P 500 rose about 4%, while the equal-weighted index was up less than 2%. In the first quarter of the year, the spread between these two indexes was closer to 0.5%.

But since stocks bottomed out after a 5% pullback in the S&P 500 that ended in mid-April, the market has once again been all about Big Tech.

The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) posted its best May in over 20 years, led by nearly a 30% jump in Nvidia stock over the past month.

Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett noted the relative price performance of the equal-weighted S&P 500 (^SPXEW) against the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 is at its worst level since March 2009 after a rebound last year.

This narrow leadership has seen breadth — or the number of stocks advancing minus the number of stocks declining — fall toward the low end of its historical range.

Data from Bespoke Investment Group published last Thursday showed breadth over the previous 10 trading days had fallen to the lowest decile of performance going back to 2002. Meaning that over 90% of the time, the market sees more stocks participating in gains than what predominated in late May.

The firm did note, however, that breadth at these levels often portends the strongest returns of any decile over the following three-, six-, and 12-month periods.

Ned Davis Research chief US strategist Ed Clissold wrote in a note to clients that "several market breadth indicators" haven't followed the recent rally higher.

This could be a point of concern if the narrow leadership from Big Tech over the last month falls off. According to Clissold, this sometimes happens when market rallies peak.

"The bottom line is that while some divergences have been developing all year, most only presented themselves in recent weeks," Clissold wrote. "If the market is in a topping process, it is likely in the beginning phases. Not enough evidence has changed to warrant adjusting our overweight recommendation to US stocks."

In a note to clients on Monday, RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvasina called this recent action a "sudden stall" in the rotation trade, citing a few catalysts giving investors reason for concern.

A rise in Treasury yields has once again become a headwind for stocks, pushing many investors to lean on large-cap stocks. This also comes as the fundamental story has been most impressive for that group as well, with earnings being revised higher for large-cap tech stocks in recent weeks, Calvasina noted.

These shifts have happened as the story of a resilient US economy that could grow more than expected this year has been taking hits.

A reading on first quarter economic growth was revised lower during the last week of May, while the latest look at manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management showed activity fell further into contraction last month.

And in describing what could revive the rotation trade, Calvasina wrote, "Our work suggests that the 10-year yield (^TNX) needs to stop rising, the market needs more clarity and certainty around the path of monetary policy and the timing of cuts, earnings trends need improve for the broader market such that they look better than the biggest growth names, and economic excitement needs to return.""

MY COMMENT

Especially for long term, fully invested all the time investors,....stock selection is HUGE. Tie your portfolio to the best stocks for a long time and the gains and compounding will happen.

I have focused on the BIG CAP GROWTH side of the markets for 55 years now. Over that time I have usually limited myself to the top 10-20 names in the business world. The pay-off has been HUGE.

I simply like to ride the coat-tails of the greatest proven companies in the world.

What we are seeing now in the markets and the current BULL MARKET is yet another confirmation of that strategy. Imagine what will happen to these big names when the current rally decides to broaden out. First, when this happens the bull market will have a very prolonged life span. Second...the big cap leaders will continue to benefit from that continued rally.

In addition, these big cap growth WINNERS....are also the first stocks to usually benefit from a new, young, bull market when one starts up after a bear market....just as we have seen over the past 1.5 to 2 years..

Peter Lynch during his run at Magellan Fund was a stock picking genius. The dirty little secret....however....it is more simple that you would think. Simply buy the long term market winners.....while everyone else is caught up in obscure analysis and complex systems.

Think of it this way.....is there any investor over the past 10-15 years that did not know what companies were the big cap growth monster companies? The question is...did they buy and hold them?

 

What a nice day....a BIG FAT GAIN for me today. Driven by my GREEN stocks....NVDA, AMZN, AAPL, COST, and GOOGL.

In my five RED stocks are.....PLTR, SMCI and CMG......all very small positions (CMG is the largest but still small by my portfolio standards)....all of which I am following to see if any of them are going to stick for the long term. So their impact on my portfolio is minimal.....on a day like today.

I have to say of the training-wheel positions....CMG is my favorite......in spite of being hammered by the current Social Media campaign against the company.

Today I beat the SP5500 by 2.05%. A very good start to the first full week of June.

 

Regarding the post two posts up....it is also a very good thing that we STILL have rate cuts up our sleeve. that is another....un-used....factor that will prolong the current bull market.

 

Here are all the basics of the NVIDIA stock split.

Nvidia stock is splitting this week: Here’s what that means for NVDA investors
The 10-to-1 stock split will be completed by Friday, with the AI chip company’s shares trading at the post-split price on Monday, June 10.


https://www.fastcompany.com/91134752/nvidia-stock-split-2024-date-this-week-reason-investors

 

I like this little article......especially the title for it on the site where I found it.

The Fed Doesn't Know What to Do, Can't Shut Up About It

(Weekly Market Pulse: The Fed’s Conundrum)

https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/06/03/weekly-market-pulse-the-feds-conundrum/?src=news

"Last week was a volatile one for markets with big swings in stocks and bonds in a holiday-shortened week. The economic data didn’t appear to be sufficiently out of the expected range to justify big moves but we got them anyway. And I think the reason is the one cited by Neel Kashkari in the quote above – the Fed doesn’t know what to do and they tell us so every day because they can’t seem to shut up. I don’t mean to imply that they are somehow out of the mainstream on this, as I don’t think anyone really knows how monetary policy should evolve right now. There is tremendous uncertainty about the course of this new post-COVID economy because it has defied prediction almost since the first sneeze back in early 2020. And that isn’t even considering the uncertainty around the election this fall, which got just a little more confused last week.

I pointed out last week that there really isn’t anything in the market indicators we watch that point to an imminent recession and that didn’t change in one week. I also pointed out some areas of concern but this week I want to take a little deeper dive into some of the details. First, let’s look at what was moving markets last week.

Interest rates shot up 18 basis points on Tuesday and Wednesday and while that didn’t change any trends, it is a pretty big move for a couple of days with no obvious catalyst. There was some economic news but it was largely offsetting. The Case Shiller home price index for March was released and rose to a new record, up 1.6% month-to-month and 7.4% year-over-year. That obviously isn’t good news but rising home prices aren’t new or shocking at this point. The other economic news on Tuesday was the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey which came in at -19.4, which was worse than last month but not significantly different than it has been since mid-2022. The Dallas Fed survey was once just a good indicator of oil drilling activity but that is less true today because the Texas economy has diversified over the last 10 years. In any case, the weakness in this report would seem to offset the potentially bad inflation news of home prices.

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Also on Tuesday, the Conference Board released its Consumer Confidence index which rose to 102 from 97.5 last month. The Present Situation and Expectations indexes also improved but the Expectations component remained below 80 which is the Board’s threshold for recession. So, improved but still not great and really no reason to push rates higher.

Wednesday brought the weekly report on mortgage applications which – surprise – were down. The housing market is weak and that isn’t news to anyone. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing index rose to 0 from -7 the previous month but that isn’t exactly a boom. There was an increase in shipments and new orders although the latter stayed negative. Their employment index fell further into negative territory. The services index turned positive but the Dallas Fed Services index, released at the same time, turned more negative. Like the Philly Fed survey last week, the Richmond version does appear to be turning up but at a slow pace.



Again, there was nothing in these reports that should have moved the bond market but over the course of those two days, the 10-year Treasury rate rose 18 basis points. What’s interesting too is that it wasn’t all about inflation because the 10-year TIPS yield also rose 11 basis points. In any case, that was the peak for rates last week. Stocks and REITs were both down over those two days with the S&P 500 outperforming by being down about 0.7%, while more interest-sensitive small caps and REITs both fell about twice that (1.5% and 1.6% respectively).

The data for the rest of the week was bond friendly and rates fell on Thursday and Friday. The second estimate of Q1 GDP was 1.3% versus the originally reported 1.6% and consumption within that report was downgraded from an initial 3.3% to just 2%. New jobless claims were steady at 219k which still shows a strong jobs market but no different than it has been for months.

Friday brought the most anticipated news of the week in the form of the Personal Income and Spending report which includes the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The data was largely as expected with Income up 0.3%, Spending up 0.2%, headline PCE prices up 0.3%, and core PCE prices up 0.2%. The core number was maybe a little better than expected as I saw a lot of 0.3% estimates but it was right in line with the Cleveland Fed’s real time inflation tracker. These were obviously bond-friendly numbers and at the end of the week the 10-year yield was up just 4 basis points – a lot of volatility but not much net movement. The S&P 500 fell again Thursday and for most of the day Friday, down 2.1% for the week at the low. Small cap stocks and REITs rallied on Thursday and Friday and both closed the week higher. The S&P staged a furious rally at the end of the day Friday (50 points in the last hour) to close the week down just 0.5%.

The movement in the stock market for the week looks bland but under the surface there were some incredible moves by individual stocks. Nvidia earnings were what everyone was waiting on and while the numbers were good, a lot was already baked in that cake. The stock rose on the news, up nearly 9% on the week at its peak before closing up just 3%. Interestingly, it fell on Thursday and Friday as the rest of the market was going the other way. But the move in Nvidia was mild compared to some other stocks last week. Software stocks were clobbered even as they beat estimates because most of them reduced their outlook for future earnings. It appears that software is where companies are cutting back to fit in the new AI spending. Salesforce (CRM, AIM owns) dropped 20% on Thursday but rallied back 7.5% on Friday. Other tech stocks also had big swings. Snowflake was down 13%, MongoDB fell 32.5%, Agilent fell 13%, Dell down 13%, Nutanix dropped 24%. Winners like HP (HPQ, AIM owns, +11.4%) were rarer and the NASDAQ closed lower by 1.6% for the week. Was that the top in the AI fueled tech rally? Maybe but we’ll need more than one week to figure that out.

There were big winners outside of tech like Gap Stores (GPS, AIM owns), up 29% Friday after a stellar earnings report and 38% on the week, Best Buy (BBY, AIM owns) +19% for the week, Abercrombie & Fitch +15%, Dick’s Sporting Goods +20% for the week, Academy Sports +8% (ASO, AIM owns) and Foot Locker +26%. You might notice a theme there.

I’ve been doing this for over 30 years and I don’t remember ever seeing the number of +/-20% moves in individual stocks I’ve seen over the last few years. It isn’t confined to earnings report days either; a stock we own rose 15% one day last week because some brokerage firm I’ve never even heard of upgraded it to buy. But maybe my memory is faulty because Factset reported this week that for the quarter so far (with 98% of the S&P 500 having reported), negative earnings surprises are producing bigger moves than average but positive surprises are not. In aggregate, with optimism about earnings rising all quarter, I guess that isn’t surprising. And by the way, analysts are busy raising estimates for next quarter right now. Usually earnings estimates fall at the beginning of a quarter as analysts digest the conference calls but this time they’re on the rise. The economy may be slowing some but it isn’t showing up in corporate earnings, at least not yet.

All in all, with so little news of any importance, it was a more volatile week than it should have been or I guess than I would have expected or liked.

Last week’s economic data, while largely as expected and benign, perfectly captures the conundrum Kashkari and the other members of the FOMC face. The Case Shiller index, reported at the beginning of the week, showed house prices still rising rapidly despite the Fed’s rate hikes although the volume of transactions has fallen. Or maybe it’s because of the reduced activity that prices continue to rise. If you’re on the FOMC, you worry that reducing rates now would just increase house prices even more, which will eventually feed through to the inflation indexes. I do wonder though if cutting rates might actually produce the opposite effect as it draws in inventory from homeowner’s delaying a sale because they have a 3% mortgage. Would more inventory offset higher demand? Lower rates might also increase the number of new homes being built. Maybe, but I’m afraid we may not find out; history says the Fed will wait too long to cut rates just as they waited too long to hike them.

On the other hand – and you knew there was another hand – the data at the end of the week is worrisome from a growth standpoint. Real disposable personal income was down on the month by 0.1% and the average year-over-year change over the last three months has fallen to just 1.3%. For context, the long-term average since 1960 is 3.1%. For more recent data, it averaged 2.6% in the 90s, 2.4% in the ’00s and 2.3% in the 2010s. Since 2019, which includes all the big swings from COVID, the average is 2.2%. It has been falling steadily from a year-over-year change of 3.8% in December to a 2.3% average YoY change over the last six months to 1.3% over the last three. That’s starting to look like a – worrisome – trend.



On the consumption side, real spending on services is rising at a health pace (+2.9%) but goods are struggling (+1.9%). These are not recession levels by any stretch – real goods consumption was down over 7% YoY in December of 2008 – but with income growth slowing, there seems a decent risk of further deterioration.





With inflation in house prices and a potentially weakening economy, the Fed faces a tough choice. Fed history on timing isn’t kind but it does seem as if Jerome Powell is intent on not making the same mistake twice. I think that’s why he turned more dovish late last year and I suspect he’ll want to cut sooner rather than later. But he doesn’t get to just move rates when he wants to; he’s the chairman but he can’t act alone. Will the rest of the committee go along? Kashkari and some others sure don’t sound like it. And maybe for good reason. There are still plenty of positives out there from an economic standpoint and some signs that the manufacturing part of the economy is starting to recover from its slowdown of the last two years. The Richmond Fed survey mentioned above, the Philly Fed survey released last week along with the S&P PMIs also released last week, all point to some improvement. And while income growth is slowing, there is still a large pile of savings Americans can draw on to maintain spending if they want. They’re also sitting on $32 trillion in home equity and if rates fall, some of that might get tapped.





Here’s one more reason you might see a pick up in production:



That’s the Retail Inventories/Sales ratio ex-autos. I excluded autos because, while the auto inventories/sales ratio is still below the pre-COVID level, it has been rising. The rest of retail though has been busy working down inventories and the ratio has been falling for months. It is well below the pre-COVID level and with some retailers (see above) reporting good sales, it is only a matter of time before they start the restocking process.

The market is not acting as if we are on the doorstep of a recession. Neither is it acting as if inflation is about to reverse higher. The 10-year Treasury yield was up 18 basis points in two days last week. It’s also up 18 basis points since October of 2022 and down 49 basis points from the highs of October 2023. The dollar is unchanged since November of 2022. Credit spreads are near the lows of the last two normal economic cycles (excluding COVID). A pessimistic view is that they only have one way to go from here – up. But in the past, the low of the cycle wasn’t near recession. It usually takes some time for widening spreads to impact the economy.

Will the Fed get it right? Can they get it right? Maybe they don’t have as much impact on the economy as they – and everyone – think. They can certainly impact the markets and that does affect the economy but economies are also responding to all kinds of market signals that the Fed has no control over. What impact does the Fed have on the evolution and adoption of AI? None that I can see. There are millions of things going on in the global economy that can’t be predicted or aren’t being widely observed or analyzed by the Fed or anyone else. Interest rates play a role but maybe not the dominant one central bankers and economists believe. That’s why I rely on markets to guide me on the economy and right now, markets are not sending up any recession flares even if they are giving me heartburn."

MY COMMENT

Where the FED are MORONS is in their inability to see that they are not "experts guiding the economy". NO ONE can guide the economy. It is simply impossible. BUT...their huge egos do not all ow them to consider that they are just tinkering on the edges of the economy with hindsight data that is often unreliable.

In addition they act as though the stock markets ARE the economy. too often they are using bad economic data to justify actions to trash the stock markets. That is NOT how you guide the economy.

There has NEVER been a time in history when the FEd members were constantly out there incessantly talking with the media hanging on every word. Talking is NOT action and does not reflect or lead to success.

MORONS.

AND....yes....the moves in the bond markets up and down are way out of line with the data they supposedly follow. It is obviously driven by traders......legally....semi-manipulating the markets.

 

Stocks are basically FLAT today so far. There is nothing new going on and nothing really happening this week. The media is playing it as a reaction to the economy weakening.

I call BS on this story-line. This should be a positive as an indicator that rate cuts are going to happen.

I do think the economy is weaker than people think....but...nowhere near a recession. I also think inflation is just above the 2% goal probably about 2.5% to 3%.

 

The market today.

S&P 500 slips as sluggish start to June trading continues

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

(BOLD is my opinion OR what I consider important content)

"The S&P 500 fell slightly Tuesday as Wall Street looked to find its footing after an uneven start to the month.

The broad market index pulled back by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
ticked up 15 points, or 0.01%.

Chevron, Dow Inc and Caterpillar fell 2% and 1%, keeping gains for the Dow in check. Bath & Body Works
was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500, losing 10% on the back of disappointing guidance.

The move comes after the Dow fell more than 115 points, or 0.3%, on the first trading day of June. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rose modestly on Monday.

Weak manufacturing data weighed on market sentiment, as investors are waiting to see if growth can hold up while the Federal Reserve waits for inflation to decline enough to cut interest rates.

“I think the indices themselves are a little bit flawed right now,” Bank of America head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. “I almost feel like when you peel back the onion and look at the underlying stock market, what makes me feel better is that earnings are coming in positive for a broader array of companies in the S&P it’s not just the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that’s doing all the work for the index.”

A busy week of economic data continues on Tuesday, with job opening and factory order data for April due out at 10 a.m. ET. The key report of the week will be Friday’s May payrolls report."

MY COMMENT

The short term is always VERY OPAQUE. Also very confusing. AND...usually extremely meaningless to actual investors versus traders. The relentless media coverage of each day in minute detail is understandable....but...not really relevant.

IGNORE IT ALL.

 

I have a few stocks UP today....COST, HD, CMG, and PLTR. BUT...the guts of my portfolio is still flailing around today looking for direction. A reflection of the market as a whole today.

I guess I will just have to wait and see where we go as the day progresses.

 

As to the above....just about ALL my stocks that are currently in the red.....are down by very TINY amounts. Nothing seems to be having a significantly negative day. At least what I own....is simply flat.

SO....the day still has potential to go wither way. SO....

I continue to be fully invested for the long term as usual.

 

LOL...great minds think alike.

Before I saw your post...about 20 minutes ago I sold ALL SMCI.....at a loss.....not that I had much left anyway. My theory in buying it was that it would follow NVDA generally.....I dont see that happening. So I cut it lose. I also did not like.....in the slightest....its performance since I bought it. SO.....they are gone....... for me, a FAILED little experiment.

That is about how it goes for me looking for new stocks....about one in three makes the cut and becomes a part of my portfolio for the long term. This one....SMCI...was in a hole from the start, since they did not meet my normal criteria for buying a company.

I thought about putting that money in NVDA....but....put it in PLTR instead. it was such a small amount.

So now I am down to two......training-wheel stocks......CMG and PLTR. Of the two I have more hope for CMG. I want them to become a regular position in my portfolio. I need good non-tech stocks. BUT.....for now they remain a small holding as I watch them.

 

Here is the economic news that is being talked about today........as if anyone will care about one month of very unreliable data.

Job openings fall to lowest level since February 2021

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-fall-to-lowest-level-since-february-2021-141149453.html